Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [9] Group 2: Core Views - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Consumption shows good growth, and if the social inventory reduction goes smoothly, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6]. - Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists, and the alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the market activity has increased due to electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement, the spot price is difficult to rise, and the current price is undervalued [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On November 4, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was -10 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,555 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,370 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 211,680 lots, and the open interest was 256,161 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 4, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, a change of -75 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 552,575 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On November 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,000 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,010 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On November 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,790 yuan/ton, closed at 2,770 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton or -0.54% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,593 lots, and the open interest was 420,282 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On November 4, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. An accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant caused a production cut of about 200,000 tons, and high power costs continue to pressure overseas operations. Although the social inventory shows a mediocre performance during the peak consumption season, the aluminum water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth, and the real peak consumption season is expected from November to December. With the positive progress of Sino - US negotiations, there are still macro - positive factors, and the decline of aluminum prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the social inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite supply pressure persists. The alumina spot price is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost of the ore end has decreased, but the alumina smelting loss has not improved. There is no large - scale production cut, and new production capacity is still expected. The current price is undervalued [7][8].