研 究 院 货 金 融 能源暴涨带动，铝价震荡偏强 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 美国，以色列与伊朗发生激烈交火。市场情绪剧烈波动，美元大涨人民币大跌。霍尔木兹海峡实质性关闭，航 运指数，原油等涨停，化工多数暴涨。白银，黄金均大涨创2月以来新高。有色金属全线上涨，能源因素影响，铝领 涨。今日伦铝上涨，沪铝上涨，国内现货铝价上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报24465，现货报23620，现货较期货贴水-845点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至- 170元，今日现货成交略有好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存大幅上升，氧化铝库存上升。上期所铝库存大幅上升，现 货成交好转。LME库存小幅下降，LME现货贴水-12美元，海外现货需求有所好转。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨，铝价沪 伦比下降至7.54，内外盘走势大体一致。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油暴涨，伦铝大涨，在3222美元附近运行。沪铝今日午后大涨，收于24465，技术形态偏强。 沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪偏强。春节前后国内电解铝社会库存大幅上升，节后现 ...

沪铝或以震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员：刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 | | | | | 电话：0931-8894545 | | | | | 邮箱：451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 24 | 2 | 月 | 日星期二 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 研究报告 铝周报 【宏观面、基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 国家统计局数据显示，2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同 比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 0.1%；食品价格 下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务 价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中， 城市上涨 0.2%，农村上涨 ...

Group 1 - Analysts from ANZ suggest that supply disruptions may support prices [1] - South32 confirmed plans to mothball the Mozal smelter in Mozambique, a major aluminum supply source for the European market [1] - Some investors may seek to take profits before the Spring Festival, introducing some downside risk for aluminum [1] Group 2 - The three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) remained flat at $3,099.00 per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal factors, with limited trading activity expected ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 2 - In the aluminum futures market, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in oil prices, with London aluminum closing at $3117 per ton, up $12 or 0.39%, and trading volume increasing by 2705 contracts to 19006 [1]. - The latest inventory report from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows a decrease of 1225 tons in aluminum stocks, bringing the total to 485750 tons, a decline of 0.25% [1]. - The current spot aluminum prices in China are reported at 23260 yuan per ton in Changjiang, down 30 yuan, while in Guangdong, the price is 23400 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [1]. Group 3 - The macroeconomic context reveals that the US added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% to 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market [2]. - The aluminum supply side has seen little change in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with a slight increase in output, while demand is weakening as downstream businesses begin to close for the holiday [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to face pressure from inventory accumulation and insufficient spot replenishment, with strong support anticipated around 23000 yuan per ton [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing upward price movements due to strong US stock performance and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have boosted market sentiment [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $3130 per ton, reflecting an increase of $20 or 0.64%, while the Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 23625 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.17% [1] - Domestic downstream demand remains supportive despite a slight decline in the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry, with low-level stocking needs still present [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in the US dollar index by 0.8%, reaching its lowest level in over a week, which supports aluminum prices as it enhances the attractiveness of risk products for overseas buyers [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase, but the extent of this increase is limited, resulting in relatively small supply pressure [2] - Market liquidity concerns have eased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, with copper and tin prices rising and positively influencing other non-ferrous metals [3]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a downward trend, with the main contract for aluminum futures opening at 23,800.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 1.92% by midday, reaching a low of 23,435.00 CNY/ton [1] - The overall performance of aluminum prices is weak, with institutions indicating that the market is in a phase of adjustment due to reduced new orders from downstream aluminum processing enterprises and a general decline in operating rates as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, leading to a rise in inventory levels, while the demand side remains weak, suggesting that aluminum prices will primarily experience fluctuations during this off-peak consumption season [2] Group 2 - The recent ADP employment data from the U.S. fell significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, which has led to market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach for clearer economic guidance [2] - Inventory levels for aluminum are at their highest in nearly three years, contributing to a seasonal weakness in supply and demand dynamics [2] - The aluminum industry in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, faces fundamental vulnerabilities due to imbalances in internal capacity and raw material self-sufficiency, as well as an inefficient energy system, which may affect market stability [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment ratings: Aluminum - Neutral, Alumina - Neutral, Aluminum alloy - Neutral; Arbitrage strategy: Long electrolytic aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices have entered a wide - range oscillation period. The increase in absolute prices has suppressed the restocking demand of downstream enterprises and traders. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the spot market trading is quiet. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum will continue to accumulate rapidly, and the peak of inventory accumulation is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. In the long - term, macro factors are the main logic for the long - term price increase. [6] - The Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed anti - involution measures for alumina, but the implementation of the policy is unclear. The supply pressure of alumina remains high, the surplus pattern continues, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support is weak, and large - scale active production cuts by alumina plants have not occurred. [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On February 4, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,640 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 460 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,810 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 23,955 yuan/ton, with a change of 435 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 451,208 lots, and the position held was 224,756 lots. [2] Inventory - As of February 4, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 817,000 tons, with a change of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 150,289 tons, with a change of - 423 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 495,175 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons. [2][4] Alumina Spot Price - On February 4, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,735 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - The main contract of alumina opened at 2,820 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton (0.50%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,835 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,793 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 420,118 lots, and the position held was 375,698 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 4, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 22,678 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 522 yuan/ton. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is currently in a state of extreme panic, with weak aluminum price trends. After a sharp short - term decline in aluminum prices, the weak trend may continue. The market should pay attention to market sentiment and spot demand. If copper prices continue to fall, it may drive aluminum prices to remain weak [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Data Market Panic and Price Movements - The U.S. federal government partial shutdown and Trump's nomination of Walsh as the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman, along with concerns about his hawkish stance, led to a sharp rise in the dollar. Panic spread in the market, causing a full - scale decline in capital markets. A - shares, the Hang Seng Index, and Asian stock markets all fell, with the South Korean stock market triggering a trading halt. Non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, all hit the daily limit down, with LME aluminum and domestic spot aluminum also dropping significantly [4]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 23,035, and the spot price was 23,700, with a spot premium of 665 points over the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to - 220 yuan. After the sharp decline, spot trading improved. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased significantly, alumina inventories increased slightly, and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly. In the off - season, spot demand at the high level was poor. LME inventories increased slightly, and the LME spot market turned to a discount of - 27 dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand [4]. Exchange Rate and Price Ratio - This week, the RMB exchange rate dropped significantly, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio rose to 7.84, with the domestic and overseas markets showing similar trends [4]. Technical Analysis - Today, U.S. natural gas prices plunged, U.S. crude oil prices fell, and LME aluminum fell, trading around 3,020 dollars. SHFE aluminum hit the daily limit down, closing at 23,035, and its technical form weakened. The trading volume was high while the open interest of SHFE aluminum decreased significantly, and market sentiment was panicked [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to show a mainly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the Shanghai aluminum futures main contract AL2603 was mainly fluctuating, ranging from around 24,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 26,185 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% (calculated on a comparable basis). Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4% compared to the previous year. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [3][11][34] - By industry, investment in the primary industry was 95.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; investment in the secondary industry was 1,773.68 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; investment in the tertiary industry was 2,982.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.4%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 2.6% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 2.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 9.1%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [12] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 14,673,417.92 tons, a decrease of 430,931.65 tons from the previous month [15] - As of December 2025, domestic alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a decrease of 127,200 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 6.7% in the current month. Domestic production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][16] - As of December 2025, monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at an average level compared to the past five years [16] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons from the previous week [25] - As of January 30, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.76% [25] - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 742,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 31,000 tons, in Wuxi was 292,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 14,000 tons, in Foshan was 167,000 tons, in Tianjin was 36,000 tons, in Shenyang was 8,000 tons, in Gongyi was 155,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 8,000 tons [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]