Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic aluminum prices have been observed, with a significant rise followed by a pullback, influenced by macroeconomic factors and steady demand [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened significantly higher on Monday, reaching a new annual high during the trading session [1]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price peaked at 21,020 yuan/ton, marking a new high for the year [1]. - As of September 18, the spot A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.53% but a year-on-year increase of 5.06% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% has positively impacted aluminum prices, with market expectations of three rate cuts this year [1]. - The recovery in demand from downstream sectors, particularly in the plate, strip, and foil areas, has contributed to a positive outlook for aluminum prices [1]. - Despite a near 96% operating rate for domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and challenges in inventory reduction, the overall demand is showing signs of improvement, providing support for aluminum prices [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the demand for pre-holiday stockpiling will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate within the range of 20,600 to 21,200 yuan/ton next week [2].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is expected to experience a sideways fluctuation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently facing downward pressure [1] - The aluminum industry is experiencing regulatory measures to curb overcapacity, which may help mitigate the decline in aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Production Outlook - In the coming months, aluminum production may stagnate or even see a slight decrease [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed a positive trend on September 11, with the main contract for aluminum futures rising by 0.63% to 20,915.00 CNY/ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a significant cooling in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of approximately 910,000 jobs for August non-farm data, leading to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August increased by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, which is significantly below the anticipated 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises are expected to continue increasing production due to high profit margins, with 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity being profitable in August [1] - The consumption of aluminum is expected to improve marginally as the traditional demand season begins, although rising aluminum prices may suppress downstream procurement [1] - As of September 8, aluminum ingot social inventory was 631,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from September 4, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 5,500 tons [1] Group 3 - New Lake Futures predicts that supply will continue to increase slightly, with consumption expected to improve marginally, supporting a strong aluminum price outlook [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, aluminum prices showed a high - level oscillating trend. The spread of SHFE aluminum continued to narrow, and the spot market showed obvious regional differentiation, with the East China region relatively stronger. The LME market's Cash/3M shifted to a premium structure. - Fundamentally, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. Demand showed structural differentiation, the proportion of molten aluminum rebounded, and the production scheduling data of home appliances indicated a weak expectation for "Golden September". The production schedules of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased year - on - year. - Overall, aluminum prices oscillated between macro expectations and fundamental realities. The enhanced overseas interest - rate cut expectation provided support, but the continued domestic inventory accumulation and the weak improvement in terminal demand restricted the upward price space. This month, focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and the inventory trend. If the inventory shows an inflection point, aluminum prices are expected to rise further. The operating range of the main SHFE aluminum contract this month is expected to be 20,300 - 21,400 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME 3M aluminum is expected to be 2,540 - 2,720 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. The domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. The spot basis of aluminum ingots both at home and abroad strengthened during the month [12]. - Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In August, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports widened month - on - month [12]. - Demand: According to Aizhe Consulting's research, the weekly downstream operating rate rebounded at the end of August, but the operating rates of each sector varied. Most processing plants increased production, and there were signs of improvement in the demand side. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in September, consumption may continue to improve [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In August, SHFE aluminum oscillated at a high level, rising 250 yuan/ton during the month with the center of gravity shifting upward, and LME aluminum rose 2.11% [22]. - Term Spread: In August, the spread of SHFE aluminum continued to decline [27]. - Spot Basis: In August, the aluminum ingot spot in the East China region changed from a short - term premium to a discount, and the discounts in the South China and Central China regions widened [30]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In August, the East China spot strengthened relatively [33]. - LME Premium and Discount: In August, the LME market's Cash/3M changed from a discount to a premium [39]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: In August, the average smelting profit of primary aluminum was 4,284.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 104.5% [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 126.1%. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [47][53]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to accumulate [50]. - LME Inventory Structure: The proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing the proportion of Russian aluminum [57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In August, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite were stable [65]. - Alumina Price: In August, the domestic alumina price decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the import price decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In August, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased by 24 yuan/ton during the month [75]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: In August, the domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.3%. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. As downstream consumption enters the peak season, it is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will continue to rebound in September [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In August, the output of each province remained basically unchanged compared with July. The output in Shandong decreased by 18,700 tons, and the output in Yunnan increased by 28,000 tons [89]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In August, the output of Chinese aluminum rods was 1.5345 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, plate - strip - foil, primary aluminum - based alloy ingots, and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises was weak in the off - season in July. In August, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys decreased by 504 yuan/ton to 424 yuan/ton [95][104][108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in September 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 10.75 million units, a decrease of 12.0% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.21 million units, a decrease of 6.3% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 8.11 million units, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year. The demand expectation related to home appliances was still weak. Currently, the real - estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were acceptable, the photovoltaic installation decreased, and the related demand also faced pressure [112]. 7. Imports and Exports - Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, China imported 248,200 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month increase of 29.07% and a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.99%. In August, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports widened. In July, the aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc., with 190,834 tons from Russia, accounting for 77% [117][120]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [123]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The import volume in the first seven months was 1.173 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [123]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, with the imported ore accounting for 77.7%. The cumulative imported bauxite from January to July was 123.31 million tons. In July, China exported 229,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 34.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export from January to July was 1.57 million tons [126].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, with a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-over-year [2]. - The report highlights that the high aluminum prices are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance in the future [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-over-year, while Q2 gross margin improved to 17.60%, up 1.74 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The report notes a significant reduction in power costs due to falling coal prices, which is expected to enhance profits [4]. - The outlook for aluminum prices in H2 2025 is optimistic, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from sectors like solar energy and automotive [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-over-year but an increase of 8.65% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-over-year and slightly down 0.13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with Q2 showing an improvement to 17.60% [3]. - The report attributes the increase in gross margin to lower energy and alumina raw material costs [3]. Production and Capacity - The company aims for a total alumina production of 16.81 million tons and aluminum production of 7.8 million tons for the year [4]. - The self-sufficiency rate for alumina ore significantly increased by 6% to a five-year high [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of its net profit for H1 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 15.06 billion yuan, 15.66 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The target price for the company is set at 10.56 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price dropped nearly 5% after the release of its interim results, reflecting market concerns over its financial performance despite a slight increase in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, China Aluminum reported operating revenue of 116.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 7.071 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.81% [1] - In the second quarter, the company experienced a decline in operating revenue to 60.61 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was 3.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.11 billion yuan, which represents 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities noted that low inventory levels are currently supporting high aluminum prices, and demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the second half of the year despite the end of the policy-driven installation surge [1] - The automotive sector is also anticipated to sustain high growth due to domestic vehicle replacement policies [1] - The overseas economy is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year amid a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for aluminum demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [1] - In terms of alumina, the mining sector has entered a destocking phase, making it difficult for bauxite prices to decline, while the alumina segment may face a loose supply situation but is unlikely to see significant price drops due to cost support [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 by 34.3%, 17.68%, and 2.95% to CNY 21.659 billion, CNY 20.889 billion, and CNY 21.912 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.29, CNY 2.20, and CNY 2.31 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 81.039 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 12.361 billion, up 35.02% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.67%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for aluminum alloy products, alumina, and aluminum alloy processing products at 25.2%, 28.8%, and 23.3% respectively [3] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The decline in electricity costs has contributed to profit growth, with coal prices significantly dropping this year, leading to lower electricity costs in the Shandong region where the company operates [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than HKD 3 billion, reflecting management's confidence in future performance and long-term investment value [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the upward trend in aluminum prices for the second half of 2025, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [5] - The forecast for aluminum prices is expected to fluctuate upwards, potentially exceeding CNY 21,000 per ton within the year, while the downside for alumina prices is limited due to cost support [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to stabilize above 20,000 yuan/ton in the long term, with China Hongqiao (01378) being favored due to multiple advantages, leading to a "buy" rating and a target price increase from 20 HKD to 26 HKD [1] - The report highlights that China's low electricity prices and coal cost advantages will likely widen the cost gap further in 2025-26, enhancing profit stability for integrated producers like Hongqiao [1] - It is projected that the profit per ton for Chinese aluminum companies will remain between 3,000-4,000 yuan in 2025-26, significantly above the historical average of 1,000-2,000 yuan, indicating a weakening of industry cyclicality and laying the groundwork for valuation reassessment [1] Group 2 - Demand for aluminum is expected to grow by 2-3% from the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by investments in power grids and the increased use of aluminum in lightweight vehicles, which will offset weaknesses in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors [2] - On the supply side, despite a global planned capacity of 7.5 million tons, power bottlenecks in regions like Indonesia may delay production progress [2] - The structural supply gap in 2025-26 cannot be compensated by recycled aluminum, and political instability in Guinea regarding bauxite mining licenses further tightens resource constraints, significantly supporting alumina costs [2]

Report Title - Aluminum Weekly Report: US Adjusts Aluminum Tariff Scope, Sentiment May Be Pressured [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The US-Russia leaders' talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives, which may put pressure on sentiment. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the strong aluminum product export data still supports the aluminum price. However, the pressure comes from the weak downstream consumption and the volatile trade situation. In the short term, the aluminum price may experience a volatile correction. The reference range for the domestic main contract this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 2,520 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [13] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at par with the futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.8 US dollars/ton [13] - **Imports and Exports**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports has narrowed [13] - **Demand**: According to Aizhi Consulting's research, the weekly operating rates of aluminum products were differentiated. The operating rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloys rebounded, while those of aluminum sheets, strips, aluminum rods, and aluminum foils declined. Currently, the improvement in downstream consumption is still not significant, and the spot trading is mediocre [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices were volatile. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.41% week-on-week (as of Friday's close), and LME 3M aluminum closed down 0.46% to 2,603 US dollars/ton [24] - **Term Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot discount in major regions narrowed oscillatingly [31] - **Spot Basis**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M turned to a slight premium [41] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit increased to 3,577 yuan/ton [46] - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots increased week-on-week. The LME inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons [49][52][55] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were stable [60] - **Alumina Price**: Both domestic and overseas alumina prices decreased [65] - **Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [70] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6% and a year-on-year production increase of 5.4%. The overall supply was relatively sufficient [75] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [78] - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee was oscillating. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to about 976,000 tons. With the rebound of the aluminum rod processing fee, the aluminum water ratio is expected to rebound in August [81] 6. Demand Side - **Output and Outbound Volume**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods was expected to increase month-on-month, slightly better than the same period last year. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots declined month-on-month. In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods dropped from a high level [86][90][92] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand expectation related to home appliances was weak. Currently, the real estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were fair, and the photovoltaic installation decreased significantly, and the related demand was also under pressure [100] 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [103] - **Aluminum Products and Recycled Aluminum**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [108] - **Bauxite and Alumina**: In June 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month-on-month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.7% [111]