供需紧平衡支撑高铝价 需求端，电网投资与汽车轻量化(新能源车用铝量提升)将推动2025下半年至2026年需求增长2-3%，完全 抵消地产与光伏领域疲软。供给端，尽管全球规划产能达750万吨，但印尼等地的电力瓶颈可能延缓投 产进度。此外，再生铝难以弥补2025-26年的结构性缺口，而几内亚铝土矿政策动荡(采矿许可证撤销事 件)进一步强化资源约束，氧化铝成本支撑显著。这种供需紧平衡状态将持续支撑铝价高位运行，美银 预测2025年铝价将达2.05万元/吨。 智通财经APP获悉，美银最新研报指出，中国电解铝价格长期底部将稳固在2万元/吨上方，而龙头企业 中国宏桥(01378)凭借多重优势，获得该行重申"买入"评级，目标价从20港元上调至26港元，并将其列 为2025下半年首选标的。 美银指出，中国凭借低电价与煤炭成本优势，2025-26年成本差距或进一步扩大，这使得宏桥等一体化 生产商的利润稳定性显著提升。预计2025-26年中国铝企吨利润将维持在3000-4000元，远超历史均值 (1000-2000元)，行业周期性明显弱化，为估值重估奠定基础。 ...

Report Title - Aluminum Weekly Report: US Adjusts Aluminum Tariff Scope, Sentiment May Be Pressured [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The US-Russia leaders' talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives, which may put pressure on sentiment. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the strong aluminum product export data still supports the aluminum price. However, the pressure comes from the weak downstream consumption and the volatile trade situation. In the short term, the aluminum price may experience a volatile correction. The reference range for the domestic main contract this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 2,520 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [13] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at par with the futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.8 US dollars/ton [13] - **Imports and Exports**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports has narrowed [13] - **Demand**: According to Aizhi Consulting's research, the weekly operating rates of aluminum products were differentiated. The operating rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloys rebounded, while those of aluminum sheets, strips, aluminum rods, and aluminum foils declined. Currently, the improvement in downstream consumption is still not significant, and the spot trading is mediocre [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices were volatile. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.41% week-on-week (as of Friday's close), and LME 3M aluminum closed down 0.46% to 2,603 US dollars/ton [24] - **Term Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot discount in major regions narrowed oscillatingly [31] - **Spot Basis**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M turned to a slight premium [41] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit increased to 3,577 yuan/ton [46] - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots increased week-on-week. The LME inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons [49][52][55] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were stable [60] - **Alumina Price**: Both domestic and overseas alumina prices decreased [65] - **Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [70] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6% and a year-on-year production increase of 5.4%. The overall supply was relatively sufficient [75] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [78] - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee was oscillating. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to about 976,000 tons. With the rebound of the aluminum rod processing fee, the aluminum water ratio is expected to rebound in August [81] 6. Demand Side - **Output and Outbound Volume**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods was expected to increase month-on-month, slightly better than the same period last year. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots declined month-on-month. In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods dropped from a high level [86][90][92] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand expectation related to home appliances was weak. Currently, the real estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were fair, and the photovoltaic installation decreased significantly, and the related demand was also under pressure [100] 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [103] - **Aluminum Products and Recycled Aluminum**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [108] - **Bauxite and Alumina**: In June 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month-on-month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.7% [111]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【昨日铝价区间运行，后续关注多因素影响】昨日，铝价呈区间运行态势。宏观层面，周四美国数据虽 未动摇9月降息理由，但引发市场担忧，关税或在未来数月刺激通胀，改变今年剩余降息进程。交易员 倾向于下月降息25个基点，10月再降25个基点。 基本面来看，截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总 产能11032万吨/年，运行总产能9179万吨/年，周度开工率上调0.63个百分点至83.20%，因部分企业检修 结束和利润驱动提产，运行产能回升。上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率微升0.1个百分点至58.7%。 铝线缆开工率持稳于61.8%，电网订单支撑需求，但行业复苏节奏不一，旺季特征未完全显现，预计8 月中旬开工率小幅回升。7月全国铝杆总产量36.05万吨，较6月降2.96万吨，开工率仅53.2%，环比降 6.89%，同比降6.7%。受厂内库存堆积、需求惨淡、铝价高企影响，铝杆厂家减产检修。 7月下旬以 来，铝价回落，8 - 9月终端提货预期增加，下游消费有望走出淡季，但当前铝杆厂内库存仍需消化，8 月铝杆供需格局预期改善。8月14日，国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存58 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 铝：重心温和下移，考验20200-20300一线附近平台支撑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年08月03日 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 上周我们提到沪铝主力合约在接近21000关口附近位置，再次突破未果后，逐渐呈现出触顶回落的温和迹象，且自上周五 夜盘至今，此前"反内卷"受益品种已经集体跌落，伴随7月底政治局会议信号释放，此波国内宏观情绪的拐点或已确认， 这也带了传统有色金属的溢价挤出，只是幅度相对温和，毕竟此前推涨相比焦煤、多晶硅等品种也有限。 ◆ 我们仍维持近期看法：倾向于看铝价在8、9月有一定溢价空间的挤出，但是回调的深度不深，核心还是基于此波累库的 高度并不看高。8月底及9月是否可能呈现旺季不旺，则取决于前期出口需求的前置，是否导致传统下半年的出口订单成 色不足，因海外还在消化此前的库存。线性逻 ...

国内"反内卷"情绪降温 铝周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止7月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4390万吨，产能置换投产后行业运行产能小幅提升，产量372.1万吨，同比 增长1.1%。进入8月，电解铝运行产能将维持高位，产量或环比持平略升。 ◆ 库存&现货：国内铝锭库存环比增加，录得54.4万吨，环比增加3.4万吨；保税区库存环比减少0.3至10.8万吨；LME市场铝库存周环比增加1.2 至46.3万吨。周五国内铝锭现货贴水期货20元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水2.6美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年6月我国出口未锻轧铝及铝材49万吨，环比减少逾5万吨，1-6月累计出口量为292万吨，同比下降8%。近期国内铝现货进口亏 损有所收缩。 ◆ 需求端：据爱择咨询调研，周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Fed kept the June interest rate unchanged. The dot - plot after the meeting showed that there might be two more rate cuts in 2025, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and the market's expectation of rapid rate cuts was dashed. The Israel - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and the geopolitical situation led to a decline in market risk appetite. In China, the May consumption data maintained high growth, but its sustainability was questionable, and investment and export data were under pressure. The economy still needed policy support. Fundamentally, the situation of high molten aluminum and low ingot casting remained unchanged, and the supply of goods in the spot market was still limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots continued to decline to 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. On the consumption side, the rapid rise of aluminum prices was of questionable sustainability, and downstream consumers were obviously hesitant to make purchases due to high prices. According to SMM, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% last week [3][8]. - The continuous escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and Iran's claim to block the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend have increased market risk aversion, but it is also expected to increase the transportation cost of bauxite. Trump's trade policy still has great uncertainty, and the negative impact of the tariff war on the economic fundamentals is still emerging, so there are certain macro - concerns. Fundamentally, according to the three - party research platform, the proportion of molten aluminum in China still increased slightly in June, so the ingot casting volume continued to decline. The limited supply and short - term low inventory are expected to continue, which will support the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boost the unilateral price preference. However, high aluminum prices and the seasonal off - peak consumption season limit consumption, and the upward space for aluminum prices is restricted [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,503 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, to 2,561.5 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, an increase of 58.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous third contract increased from 20,060 dollars/ton to 20,170 dollars/ton, an increase of 110 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.0 to 7.9. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.42 dollars/ton to 11.16 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 353,225 tons to 342,850 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 46,193 tons to 51,129 tons. The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum increased from 20,422 yuan/ton to 20,726 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 230 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum increased from 20,262 yuan/ton to 20,570 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 160 yuan/ton to 156 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased from 46 tons to 44.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,965.29 yuan/ton to 16,833.67 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,456.71 yuan/ton to 3,892.34 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 304 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 308 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. The Fed said that the uncertainty about the outlook had decreased but was still at a high level. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The Fed's dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025, consistent with the March expectation, but only 25 basis points in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 50 basis points. Fed Chairman Powell said it was appropriate to maintain the current interest rate level. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of this year. US industrial output in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the second decline in three months. US new housing starts in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.256 million units, and building permits decreased slightly to 1.393 million units, both hitting five - year lows. US President Trump approved an attack plan against Iran but did not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. Iran launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel. The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US to resolve some tariff issues and avoid immediate counter - measures against the US. The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%, one step away from returning to the previous negative interest rate state. The Norwegian Central Bank announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to 4.25%, the first interest rate adjustment since the pandemic [6]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% month - on - month. The downstream aluminum processing sector as a whole entered the off - season, but the operating rates of the aluminum cable and primary aluminum alloy sectors still showed some resilience. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.4 percentage points next week. In terms of inventory, according to SMM, on June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the Israel - Iran conflict and macro - economic factors, along with fundamental supply and demand conditions, are considered. The short - term low inventory is expected to continue, supporting the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boosting the unilateral price preference, but high prices and the off - peak consumption season limit the upward space for aluminum prices [8]. 4. Industry News - According to customs data, in May 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 223,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.0575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In May 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 190,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. From January to May, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 990,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [9]. - According to IAI data, in the first four months of 2025, the primary aluminum production in Europe (including Russia) increased by 2.2% year - on - year, from 2.26 million tons to 2.31 million tons. This was due to continuous growth in almost every month except February. The production in February this year was 537,000 tons, compared with 540,000 tons in February 2024. The production growth rate in April this year was significantly higher than the same period last year, which was the key to the overall growth. Among them, the production in January increased by 3.3% year - on - year to 597,000 tons, compared with a moderate growth rate of 0.7% in the same period in 2024; the year - on - year growth rate in March was 2.9%, compared with 0.9% in March 2024; the year - on - year growth in April was 3%, exceeding the 1.45% growth rate in April 2024 [9]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium (0 - 3), SHFE aluminum current - first spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that copper prices are expected to decline to around $9,100 per ton in the third quarter of 2025 due to the reversal of tight supply conditions caused by preemptive imports in the U.S. and slowing demand from China [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the copper market was significantly tightened due to two main factors: pre-imports in the U.S. before potential tariffs and the early release of demand in China [2] - The report anticipates that the U.S. will import approximately 430,000 tons of excess refined copper in the first half of 2025, which is equivalent to about six months of normal import demand [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that as the certainty of copper tariffs approaches, the situation of preemptive imports will reverse, leading to a potential de-inventory period in the U.S. where refined copper imports may drop to very low levels [2] - China's copper demand growth rate is projected to be around 7% year-on-year, but this growth momentum has shown signs of slowing since April 2025 [2][3] - Despite strong demand from the power grid, the report predicts that demand for air conditioning and white goods will face headwinds, leading to a potential stagnation or slight contraction in overall copper demand in China in the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The overall copper supply growth remains challenged, but prices are expected to find basic support around $9,000 per ton or slightly above this level, as price corrections may attract buying interest from investors, companies, and stockpilers [3] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose a downside risk to basic metal demand, although they may have a more significant positive impact on aluminum supply [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].