Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The global electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is projected to shift from a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2026 to a deficit of 1,544,000 tons, with an overseas deficit reaching 1,650,000 tons [1][5] - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to a reduction in overseas production by 2,660,000 tons, with extreme scenarios suggesting reductions could exceed 4,000,000 tons, representing 5% of global capacity [1][4] - LME aluminum inventory is critically low at 420,000 tons, sufficient for only 5 days of overseas consumption, which amplifies supply disruptions and drives prices upward, potentially reaching $4,000 [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - China's electrolytic aluminum capacity has reached a critical threshold of 45.5 million tons, with utilization rates exceeding 98%, leading to a loss of supply elasticity; domestic aluminum prices are expected to surpass 27,000-28,000 yuan/ton [1][6] - The Middle East aluminum plants have only two weeks of raw material inventory left, with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, posing significant risks of production halts for Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum [1][2] - Russian aluminum export flows may change due to soaring European premiums, with previously planned exports to China potentially redirected to the European and American markets [1][5] Production and Supply Dynamics - As of now, global electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 81.716 million tons, with operational capacity close to 73.953 million tons; overseas operational capacity is approximately 29.38 million tons, accounting for 39.7% of the global total [2] - The Middle East has seen a significant reduction in operational capacity from 6 million tons to around 4.6 million tons due to geopolitical tensions, with 80% of the overseas production cuts occurring in this region [2][3] - Different aluminum plants exhibit varying resilience to risks; for instance, Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden Aluminum and Oman’s Sohar Aluminum are less affected due to resource advantages, while Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum face severe challenges [3][4] Future Projections - The anticipated global electrolytic aluminum production for 2026 is around 74.5 million tons, with consumption expected at 76.044 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of over 1.5 million tons [5][17] - The supply-demand imbalance is primarily driven by rigid supply constraints and geopolitical disruptions, with over 90% of the deficit originating from overseas supply reductions [5][6] - The price dynamics for aluminum in 2026 are expected to be influenced more by supply constraints than macroeconomic downturns, with LME prices likely to exceed domestic prices [6][7] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East poses a continuous threat to aluminum production, with potential further reductions in output expected if the situation escalates [3][4] - Transportation bottlenecks exacerbate the risk of production cuts, as logistical challenges hinder the timely delivery of raw materials [4] - The recovery timelines for affected plants vary significantly, with some, like EGA's Abu Dhabi facility, facing extended downtime due to severe damage [8] Additional Considerations - The aluminum market is currently experiencing a divergence in consumption patterns, with sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics showing slower order recovery due to rapid price fluctuations [10] - The anticipated increase in global electrolytic aluminum capacity through 2026 is expected to be concentrated in Indonesia, with significant uncertainty regarding the actual realization of these projects [12][13] - The potential for new projects by Chinese companies overseas is being explored, with several initiatives in countries like Guinea and Kazakhstan still in preliminary stages [19][20] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the electrolytic aluminum industry, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions, supply dynamics, and future market expectations.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is supported by the Middle East situation and shows a strong trend. The uncertain production in the Middle East and the continuous rise in global energy prices have led to increases in LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices. The short - term aluminum price is volatile but tends to be strong, and the medium - term focus is on the Middle East situation and spot demand [3][4] Summary According to the Content Market Situation - The Middle East situation is still unclear, and market sentiment is weak. Today, crude oil has risen sharply, chemicals have all increased, pure benzene and methanol have reached new highs, caustic soda has dropped significantly, and silver and gold have increased. Non - ferrous metals have rebounded intraday, with aluminum and tin rising sharply [3] Aluminum Price - LME aluminum, Shanghai aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices have all increased. Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,725, and the spot price was 24,530, with a spot discount of - 195 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply, and the spot discount has narrowed to - 100 yuan, and spot transactions have improved significantly [3] Inventory - This week, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has slightly decreased, the alumina inventory has decreased, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the LME inventory has decreased slightly. The spot demand in both the domestic and overseas markets has improved [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil and LME aluminum have risen sharply. LME aluminum is trading around $3,441. Shanghai aluminum has risen sharply and closed at 24,725, with a strong technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum have both increased, and market sentiment is optimistic [4] Market Outlook - In the short term, the aluminum price has risen sharply due to the intense conflict in the Middle East, soaring energy prices, and the suspension of aluminum smelting in the Middle East. However, the poor global economic outlook exerts pressure, and the market fluctuates greatly, with a short - term volatile and strong trend. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and spot demand [4] Data Monitoring - From March 24th to March 30th, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated, the spot premium and discount have changed, the LME aluminum - futures and spot price difference has increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio of the main contract has also fluctuated, reaching 7.39 on March 30th [5]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - Due to the intensifying supply disturbances in the Middle East, aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The main contract in the second quarter is expected to be between 22,000 - 28,000 yuan per ton [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 28, UAE's ATaweelah was attacked by drones, and its facilities were severely damaged. On March 29, Bahrain Aluminium confirmed that its facilities were also attacked and damaged, intensifying the marginal supply disturbances in the Middle - East aluminum market. On March 30, SHFE aluminum opened strongly, with an intraday increase of nearly 4% and LME aluminum rising more than 5.5% [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Macro - aspect**: Geopolitical situation remains under observation, and risk appetite has temporarily stabilized [4]. - **Supply - side**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased overseas supply disruptions. Some local plants have already cut production, and there is a risk of an expanded production - cut area. Mozal is under maintenance, and new projects in Indonesia are restricted by factors such as power. Overall, the supply - side constraints are strong [4]. - **Demand - side**: The weekly terminal operating rate in China has rebounded, and the spot remains at a discount. In the medium - term, there are still structural highlights, with high - growth in energy storage and power grid sectors. It is expected that the global supply - demand will remain tight in 2026 [4]. Summary and Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips. For spreads, continue to focus on the SHFE - LME aluminum spread arbitrage and the LME aluminum borrow strategy [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. The current supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. In the short term, the aluminum price may have an oversold rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The mainstream operating range of the aluminum price next week is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton. The range of SHFE Aluminum 2605 is expected to be 23,700 - 24,500 [5][10]. - The new long positions are recommended to wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - to long - term is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and global economic stagflation, the supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. The aluminum price may have an oversold rebound next week, but the rebound space may be limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see, and temporarily avoid new long positions [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Hold light long positions [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: In the first quarter, Guinean mines have achieved full - production operation, and the supply is expected to remain high from April to June. However, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before early April to stabilize prices. The bauxite price of $60 may be the medium - to long - term bottom. Even if the export quota is implemented, the bauxite shipment from Guinea will not decline sharply in the short term [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 27, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,220 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.58%. The market supply - demand has changed from surplus to tight balance. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted the caustic soda supply, and Guinea's export control has led to market recovery [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February, the domestic built - in production capacity was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity limit. Projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the process of production, and some idle production capacity in the Northeast may resume production on a small scale. Overseas, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on the global aluminum supply chain. Qatar Aluminum has cut production by 636,000 tons, and Bahrain Aluminum has declared force majeure. ANZ Bank estimates that about 8 - 10 million tons of production will be affected in 2026, and it is expected to return to normal production by 2028 [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products has significantly declined from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [9]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 1.371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 69%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has significantly decreased, and the warehouse shipment volume has significantly increased during the price decline. The inventory accumulation cycle may be coming to an end. The inventory of aluminum rods is 330,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 26%, still at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton (last week it was about 7,300 yuan/ton), at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: The industry continues to improve, but the macro - guidance is weak. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain in the current range next week, with a mainstream operating range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite from Guinea and Australia have increased, while the price of domestic bauxite remains unchanged. The number of ship bookings by mines and traders has not significantly decreased. It is expected that the shipment volume in April will decrease, but the reduction is controllable. - The price of port thermal coal has shown a moderately strong shock trend this week. The market operation is relatively cautious. The current coal supply is at a high level, and the inventory days are higher than the safety line, so most power plants have no obvious pressure to replenish inventory. - The alumina price has risen and then fallen this week. The social inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and there is a large amount of inventory in the delivery warehouse. The upward price space is limited, and the lower limit is the cost line and the impact of overseas bauxite [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic bauxite supply is still in a relatively abundant state. The arrival volume in April may decrease, but the reduction is limited. - The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past 5 years. The in - plant inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased since March, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to accumulate at a high level. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [15]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss of alumina is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 4,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 62.9% this week. The production of aluminum profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The demand for canning materials, batteries and other related products has continued to pick up, but the orders for automobile sheets have been affected by the tax incentive phase - out. The demand for aluminum cables is at a peak level, and the order scheduling in April is expected to be good. The orders for battery foils and packaging foils are prominent. Overall, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, but the high aluminum price and macro - uncertainty still suppress the demand release elasticity [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current SHFE aluminum futures show a contango market structure, with general spot demand. However, the slope of the spot price has eased compared with last month, and the spot - end demand is better than that in February. In the short term, the price is continuously guided by the macro - factors [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,980 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,790 yuan/ton last week. The current spread is supportive of electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. - The spread between the ADC12 spot and the active month of the SHFE casting alloy is about 3,740 yuan/ton this week, compared with 4,040 yuan/ton last week. The basis of ADC12 is at a high level in recent years, and the shortage of alloy spot is obvious [38][40]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has further shrunk, but it is still at a high level since 2018. Since January, the net long position of funds has generally shown a fluctuating decline. In the latest period, the reduction of the long - position camp is obvious, while the short - position camp generally remains inactive. The long - position still dominates, but the net long - power is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short - position of the main contract has remained stable and has decreased during the recent price decline. This week, the electrolytic aluminum price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and both the long and short camps have continued to significantly reduce their positions. The main contract is currently in a net short - position. Institutions mainly for speculation show signs of turning from net short to net long. The funds from the mid - and downstream enterprises have turned to a slight net short - position. Overall, the main - force funds are inclined to a slight rebound in the short - term price [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the frequent news of peace talks between the US and Iran last week initially released market risk sentiment, but Iran denied the talks. The large differences in the peace agreement and the setback in the hope of de - escalating the Middle East situation have led to a resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment. The attack on Bahrain Aluminium has damaged its facilities, with the impact on production capacity unclear. Newly - invested capacities in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia continue to increase. The downstream operating rate has risen by 1.1% to 64%. Aluminum ingot inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, while aluminum rod inventory has decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. Overall, due to the severe damage to Bahrain Aluminium, the expectation of further production cuts is rising, and supply concerns may become the mainstream logic again. Aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week. The market sentiment may fluctuate between the recession risk brought by the tightening cycle and the supply disruption caused by the conflict, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [3][8]. - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy remained flat at 59.5%. The spot price of cast aluminum adjusted following the large fluctuations in aluminum prices, but the spot price of raw materials was relatively resistant to decline, compressing the profit of cast aluminum. Coupled with insufficient new downstream orders, the increase in the operating rate of cast aluminum enterprises was hindered. The large import loss made it difficult for imported goods to enter the market. The recovery in the consumption peak season was less than expected, and downstream procurement was highly sensitive to prices, with low inventory - building willingness and mainly for rigid demand. Overall, the cost support for cast aluminum has weakened slightly, but the downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - side operating rate has not continued to rise, and the import window is not open, so the supply pressure is not large. However, consumption is also relatively weak, providing limited support for prices. Cast aluminum is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 - month contracts rose from 3,192 yuan/ton to 3,284.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 92.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts decreased from 24,085 dollars/ton to 24,025 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.5 to 7.3, a decrease of 0.2. The LME spot premium increased from 37.83 dollars/ton to 61.23 dollars/ton, an increase of 23.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 429,675 tons to 420,875 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 403,558 tons to 408,197 tons, an increase of 4,639 tons. The spot average price decreased from 24,546 yuan/ton to 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The spot premium/discount increased from - 160 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 24,548 yuan/ton to 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from - 2 yuan/ton to 52 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 133,900 tons to 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15,972.99 yuan/ton to 16,047.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.9 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 8,573.01 yuan/ton to 7,548.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,024.9 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,700 yuan/ton to 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum decreased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased from 2,130 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 662 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai decreased from 3,313 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton, a decrease of 555 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47,732 tons to 36,684 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 23,596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950 yuan/ton compared with last week. The weekly average price of the South China Storage spot was 23,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,004 yuan/ton compared with last week. - Macroscopically, US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time, and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a new low in 11 months. The manufacturing and service industries showed a differentiated trend: the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, exceeding expectations, while the service - industry PMI dropped to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months. The euro - zone S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped from 51.9 in February to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. The preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, a new high in 45 months, but the preliminary value of the service - industry PMI dropped from the previous value of 51.9 to 50.1, far lower than the expected 51.1. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum consumption, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 1% to 63.9%. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 10,000 tons to 1.349 million tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 28,000 tons to 341,500 tons. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 662 yuan/ton to 1,468 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 555 yuan/ton to 2,758 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled - aluminum enterprises last week remained flat at 59.5% week - on - week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 11,048 tons compared with last Friday [6][7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, for electrolytic aluminum, due to the situation of the US - Iran peace talks and the attack on Bahrain Aluminium, aluminum prices are expected to rise strongly at the opening this week and be strong but with large fluctuations. For cast aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. 3.4 Industry News - The second - quarter aluminum premium in Japan in 2026 (QMJP) is set at $350 - 353 per ton, with an average of $351.5 per ton, an increase of 80.27% compared with Q1. - The production capacity operation level of the San Ciprián smelter of Alcoa has reached 90% and is expected to reach full - load operation by the middle of this year. In 2021, the output of the San Ciprián smelter decreased due to high electricity prices. In April 2025, a large - scale power outage in Spain further disrupted the overall operation of the smelter and refinery. Before the production cut, the total annual production capacity of the smelter was 228,000 tons [11][12]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum month - to - month spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical trade seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes, cast aluminum futures price, cast aluminum spot price, refined - scrap price difference, and cast aluminum exchange inventory [14][16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE by Iran have raised concerns about the stability of aluminum supply from the Middle East, which accounts for approximately 10% of global aluminum supply [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Two major aluminum companies in the Gulf region confirmed attacks from Iran, resulting in injuries and property damage [1]. - Bahrain Aluminum Company reported that its facility was attacked on March 28, leading to two minor injuries and an ongoing assessment of property damage [3]. - Emirates Global Aluminum also confirmed significant damage to its facility in Abu Dhabi, with multiple injuries among Indian and Pakistani workers [3]. Group 2: Production Impact - Both affected companies are significant players in local aluminum production, with a combined capacity exceeding 6% of global total capacity [3]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted aluminum metal supply, causing fluctuations in aluminum prices [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that even if the situation stabilizes, the recovery of production will be challenging, requiring extensive equipment repairs and safety evaluations, which could take 6 to 12 months [4]. - The risk of permanent damage to Middle Eastern production capacity may provide a core driver for aluminum prices to strengthen independently [5]. - It is anticipated that the price of aluminum in the second quarter will trend upwards, with the main contract expected to range between 23,000 to 26,000 yuan per ton throughout the year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum - Cautiously bullish; Alumina - Neutral; Aluminum alloy - Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage - Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum has new changes, with some factories in Africa and the Middle East reducing production or suspending production. The Middle East situation remains tense, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long run, while domestic demand recovery needs attention. The alumina market is pessimistic about long - term prices due to over - supply, and there are many short - term disturbances. [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On March 16, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,790 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,640 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,760 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,130 yuan/ton and closed at 25,170 yuan/ton on March 16, 2026, down 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 361,102 lots and the position was 309,830 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Inventory**: As of March 16, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 387,729 tons, an increase of 25,761 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 442,825 tons, a decrease of 2,475 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On March 16, 2026, the alumina price in Shanxi was 2,690 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,655 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,705 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,715 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 298 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On March 16, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,956 yuan/ton and closed at 2,965 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 808,529 lots and the position was 267,270 lots [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On March 16, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 24,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 58,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 74,600 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 23,980 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 720 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in Mozambique, Qatar, and Bahrain have reduced or suspended production. The Middle East situation affects raw material and energy supply, and overseas inventory is declining, which is bullish for aluminum prices. Domestically, attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, and long - term aluminum prices are expected to rise [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has some transactions, but the long - term over - supply situation makes the market pessimistic about future prices. There are many disturbances in the ore end, and the inventory is increasing. Policy impact needs attention [7] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [8] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core logic of the aluminum market still revolves around the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends and the scale of production cuts in the Middle East expands, the expectation of an overseas supply gap is continuously strengthening. Meanwhile, energy prices are pushing up costs, and aluminum prices will continue to be in a strong upward state [2][7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [2][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price increased from 3431 yuan/ton to 3439 yuan/ton, a rise of 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24845 dollars/ton to 25140 dollars/ton, a rise of 295 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.2 to 7.3, an increase of 0.1 [3]. - The LME spot premium decreased from 47.4 dollars/ton to 30.83 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16.6 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 456875 tons to 445300 tons, a decrease of 11575 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 329627 tons to 361968 tons, an increase of 32341 tons [3]. - The spot average price increased from 24298 yuan/ton to 25014 yuan/ton, a rise of 716 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot premium decreased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The South China storage spot average price increased from 24268 yuan/ton to 24956 yuan/ton, a rise of 688 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 30 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 125.6 tons to 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [3]. - The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15858.35 yuan/ton to 15895.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.4 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 8439.66 yuan/ton to 9118.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 678.6 yuan/ton [3]. - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24500 yuan/ton to 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3]. - The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24100 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2611 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai increased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton, an increase of 142 yuan/ton [3]. - The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 58729 tons to 54311 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons [3]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 25014 yuan/ton, an increase of 716 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 24956 yuan/ton, an increase of 688 yuan/ton compared with last week [4]. - In terms of the macro - situation, the US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "about to end". However, Iran's Supreme Leader Muqtada al - Sadr stated that Iran would not give up revenge and would continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The US CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. But the market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to support the Fed's decision on when to cut interest rates again [4]. - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year - on - year. In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3% [5]. - In the electrolytic aluminum consumption end, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate was 9%, showing a post - holiday recovery trend, with all lines increasing month - on - month, and the industry as a whole entered the normal production rhythm. High aluminum prices and macro - uncertainty are continuously suppressing the elasticity of demand release, and the quality of the traditional "Golden March" peak season remains to be seen [5]. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 12, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3.8 tons to 129.4 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum increased by 142 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.8% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 5.4 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons compared with last Friday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the Middle East conflict shows signs of turning into a protracted war, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Last week, a Qatari aluminum plant announced production cuts due to a natural gas shortage, and its production capacity has been reduced to 60%, with a reduction of about 25.9 tons. Some Iranian production capacities have carried out preventive production cuts, and Bahrain Aluminum announced a production cut of 31 tons of production capacity over the weekend, expanding the expected overseas supply gap. The domestic downstream operating rate after the holiday continued to rise by 2.4% to 61.9%. During the week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with last week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with before the holiday. Overall, the aluminum market will continue to be in a strong upward state [7]. - In the cast aluminum market, the operating rate of aluminum alloy last week increased by 2.5% to 58.8%, and enterprises continued to resume work and production, with the operating rate slowly recovering to the pre - holiday level. In terms of imports, the overseas ADC12 price has risen to around 3400 dollars/ton due to the increase in shipping costs, and the import loss has expanded to 1800 yuan/ton, so the supply pressure of domestic cast aluminum is not large. The consumer end is slowly resuming production and has limited acceptance of high prices, and the consumption recovery is slow. Overall, both supply and demand are in a wait - and - see state. On the cost side, scrap aluminum yards have resumed work, but the reverse invoicing policy has become stricter, and the increase in circulating supply is limited. Primary aluminum has risen rapidly due to the Middle East conflict, and scrap aluminum prices have followed the increase actively, strengthening cost support. Overall, the supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [8]. 4. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 43 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to February, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 97.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%, compared with 86.1 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Rio Tinto Group offered to provide Japanese buyers with aluminum ingots for the second quarter at a premium of 350 dollars/ton, up from the previous offer of 250 dollars/ton. The aluminum premium in Japan in the first quarter was 195 dollars/ton [12]. - Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a "standstill" in the shipment of aluminum products in the region. Mercuria, the world's largest independent integrated energy and commodity trading group, plans to urgently withdraw nearly 10 tons of aluminum from the London Metal Exchange (LME) storage facilities to ease the supply gap in the European and American markets [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The easing of the US-Iran crisis led to a limited retracement of the previous risk premium in aluminum prices. Overseas supply remains tight, and the supply-demand gap overseas has widened. The upward trend of electricity prices persists, leaving room for aluminum prices to rise. The domestic downstream has resumed production, and export data shows high growth [6]. - In the alumina spot market, the arrival price has increased due to rising freight, while the northern ex-factory price remains stable. The overall domestic supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and social inventories are still rising [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 11, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 25,030 yuan/ton, with a change of 560 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was -130 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,890 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by -20 yuan/ton to -270 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 530 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by -35 yuan/ton to -205 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,950 yuan/ton, closed at 25,215 yuan/ton, with a change of 510 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 317,398 lots, and the position was 212,126 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of March 11, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.271 million tons, with a change of 15,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 350,691 tons, with a change of 9,428 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 450,125 tons, with a change of -2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 11, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,839 yuan/ton, closed at 2,869 yuan/ton, with a change of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.77%. The highest price reached 2,879 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,823 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 354,506 lots, and the position was 288,252 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 11, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 83,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The aluminum price has an independent trend due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation and potential threats to the overseas aluminum supply chain. The price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, with total positions increasing by 26,000 to 688,000. High prices suppress consumption, and the procurement demand is weak. The domestic supply is stable, and the demand is warming up after the festival, but inventory accumulation continues. The current aluminum price is mainly affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and a low - buying strategy is recommended before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Price and Position**: The aluminum price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, and the total positions increased by 26,000 to 688,000 [8] - **Consumption**: High aluminum prices suppress consumption, with weak procurement demand. The East China discount is - 130, the Central Plains discount is - 270, and the South China discount is - 205 [8] - **Import and Export**: The Shanghai - London ratio is low, and the import loss is - 3,368 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: Domestic supply is stable. Newly - invested capacities in Indonesia and Angola are still ramping up. In the Middle East, Qatar Aluminum has stopped production, and Bahrain Aluminum has suspended supply [8] - **Demand and Inventory**: After the festival, demand is warming up, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly. However, inventory accumulation continues. Domestic social inventory has increased to 1.271 million tons, at a high level in the past three years, while the London inventory has decreased by more than 2,000 tons to 452,000 tons, highlighting the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a low - buying strategy before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 5: Industry News - **Force Reduction by Rio Tinto**: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [9] - **Expansion by Nalco**: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]