1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's long - term contract price continues to decline in Q1, and the cost of alumina in February is continuously reduced. Before the Spring Festival, as downstream stocking nears its end and logistics comes to a halt, alumina inventory gradually accumulates. After the festival, alumina production cuts combined with the expectation of restarting production of electrolytic aluminum in the southwest may trigger a new round of raw material procurement by downstream enterprises. It is expected that alumina may show a trend of being weak first and then strong within the month. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic holiday acts as a buffer, and the sentiment of funds around the festival is expected to gradually subside. After the festival, it may enter the stage of verifying demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas geopolitical risks during the holiday and the extent of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. Whether the development of the US - Iran situation triggers new macro - pricing may determine the starting point of the aluminum price after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In January, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 30th, the main contract closed at 2,768 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 24,560 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 7.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 22,820 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 4.4% [5][6][7]. 3.2 Spread - In January, the alumina's discount widened from 46 yuan/ton to 1,439 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 220 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in January was 88.82 million tons, with a production of 7.49 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 0.4% and a year - on - year decline of 1.2%. Manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan all carried out maintenance and load - reduction operations. In January, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The aluminum - water ratio dropped to 75.1% [3][5]. 3.4 Demand - High prices and environmental control diluted the stocking performance. In January, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 60.2%, a 0.85% decrease compared to December. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 65.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foil increased by 1.05% to 70.9%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3.98% to 47.6%, the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 0.5% to 60.1%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.55% to 60.1%. The processing fees of aluminum rods decreased across the board by 50 - 350 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum poles remained stable in many places, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase in Henan [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in January, the alumina inventory increased by 15,300 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 87,000 tons to 217,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 498,000 tons. In terms of social inventory, the alumina monthly inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 227,000 tons; the aluminum ingot monthly inventory increased by 137,000 tons to 782,000 tons; the aluminum rod monthly inventory increased by 104,500 tons to 244,000 tons [3][5].