Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the impact of the rainy season on bauxite mines will gradually fade, and the long - term agreement price may be slightly lowered. The loose pattern of alumina will continue, and the margin is expected to gradually converge. It is recommended to continue the strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long - term, while being vigilant against policy tightening at the Guinean mine end and irregular production cuts caused by environmental protection during the heating season or losses, which may lead to a phased oversold rebound. - In the fourth quarter, with the continuous implementation of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the price of electrolytic aluminum above the 20,000 - yuan mark will continue to be more likely to rise than to fall. It is advisable to mainly go long on dips. Whether the demand can be substantially improved after the Double Festival may determine the final high of the aluminum price this year. Attention should be paid to the demand fulfillment and the remaining two interest - rate cut dynamics of the Federal Reserve this year. - In the fourth quarter, with the cancellation of waste - aluminum tax rebates and the recovery of peak - season demand in November, aluminum alloys will strengthen relative to electrolytic aluminum, presenting an AD - AL arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt registration and subsequent delivery [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price - In the third quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of September 25, the main contract closed at 2,942 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,765 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.9%. The aluminum alloy futures, which were listed in June, fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,385 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3% [6][8]. Supply - Alumina: From January to September, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 66.606 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The operating capacity rose to 91.35 million tons, and the operating rate rose to 82.8%. The domestic alumina supply has increased slightly, with new domestic and overseas alumina production capacities being put into operation at an excessive speed, and the pace of release slowing down after a significant narrowing of profits. - Electrolytic aluminum: From January to September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 32.757 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The operating capacity rose to 44 million tons, the operating rate rose to 96.3%, and the molten - aluminum ratio rose to 76%. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, with technological transformation projects in Guangxi and early replacement projects in Guizhou and Yunnan gradually starting production [4][6]. Demand - The peak - season effect and the high - price suppression of inventory replenishment coexist. The average operating rate in the third quarter was 60.1%, a year - on - year decline of 2.51%. From June to August, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the average processing PMI at 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and cables declined significantly year - on - year, while aluminum profiles showed relative resilience [4][6]. Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 96,000 tons to 114,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 33,400 tons to 128,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 172,000 tons to 517,000 tons. - Social inventory: In the third quarter, the alumina social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons; the aluminum - ingot inventory increased by 139,000 tons to 617,000 tons; the aluminum - rod inventory decreased by 36,500 tons to 123,000 tons [4][7]. Aluminum Ore - Production: Mines in Shanxi and Henan first resumed production and then were restricted by environmental protection. Domestic ore production first increased and then declined. - Import: In the third quarter, affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the proportion of ore imports gradually decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume was 1.82898 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [32][34]. Downstream - Operating rate: The operating rates of multiple downstream sectors declined year - on - year. The declines in the plate, strip, foil, and cable sectors were significant, at 6%, 5%, and 6% respectively. - Orders: From June to August, the average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI was 45.8, a year - on - year increase of 3.2. It is expected that the PMI in September still has room for growth [56][62]. Capacity - Domestic alumina: The new incremental level is large, and the over - supply pressure will further increase. The total planned new capacity is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [71]. - Overseas alumina: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned new capacity is 14.4 million tons [72][73]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new capacity is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [74]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: There are regional differences and a lag in rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into operation in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [75]. Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina continues to be in surplus. From January to August, the overseas alumina and primary - aluminum production was 39.86 million tons and 19.66 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a decline of 0.1% [91]. Supply - Demand Balance - Alumina: It is expected to turn to a state where the surplus margin narrows in the fourth quarter. - Electrolytic aluminum: The demand will turn to a tight state in the fourth quarter [93][94]. Options - The report also analyzed the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes of alumina options and Shanghai aluminum options [96][103][107].