近期利多利空分析 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20660，基差-35，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减1518吨至 124078吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, also bullish. The main positions are net long but decreasing. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral considering carbon - neutral policies, weak demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is 200, with the spot price at 20710, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, a neutral factor [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Bearish factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there were supply shortages in most years, except for a small surplus in 2020 and 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [24].