Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, continued weakness in the real estate market, and volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a discount to futures, also indicating neutrality. The inventory situation is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bullish. Overall, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality on aluminum prices and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs by the US [2]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the aluminum market. Bullish factors include capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the global economic pessimism and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, as well as the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a volatile macro - environment [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 20660, with a basis of - 35, showing a discount to futures, considered neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 1518 tons to 124078 tons last week, regarded as neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, considered bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs by the US [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Global economic pessimism and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's yesterday's spot middle - price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River's was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136300 tons, an increase of 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance of Aluminum (in 10,000 tons)**: From 2018 to 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, - 1.3, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 respectively. In 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 15 [22].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, also bullish. The main positions are net long but decreasing. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral considering carbon - neutral policies, weak demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is 200, with the spot price at 20710, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - The SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 5625 tons to 108822 tons last week, a neutral factor [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive changes in the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Bearish factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there were supply shortages in most years, except for a small surplus in 2020 and 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [24].