新华财经北京1月21日电 2026年开年以来，美元指数明显反弹、非美货币普遍承压，但在季节性因素等 支撑下，人民币汇率仍保持了上行势头，继续在2024年9月以来的高位震荡。 而随着中国人民银行再度表态将保持人民币汇率弹性，当前市场普遍预期，人民币汇率将继续呈现双向 波动常态，并大概率在春节前保持温和偏强，不过对于全年涨幅预期则出现分歧。 人民币汇率延续温和偏强开局 去年末银行代客结售汇明显抬升 根据国家外汇局数据，2025年12月，银行代客结售汇明显抬升，差额已升至近千亿美元的历史高位。 以代客结售汇为例，受益于货物贸易与证券投资净结汇贡献，去年12月银行代客净结汇999.3亿美元， 环比增加835亿美元；代客涉外收付款方面，在货物贸易等支撑下，去年12月差额录得1134.8亿美元， 环比增加达956.9亿美元。 分析认为，出口强韧、结汇意愿抬升、外资偏好境内股票市场以及汇率升值加速等，或都是带动去年12 月结汇规模增加的主要原因。 在出口方面，去年12月同比增长6.6%至3577.8亿美元，创历史新高；同时当月银行代客货物贸易涉外收 入占比出口升至114%，因此出口商出口收入增加配合其将外币收入汇回意愿抬升 ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed a surplus in September, with a total settlement of 18,809 billion RMB and a sale of 15,183 billion RMB, resulting in a surplus of 3,626 billion RMB, which has expanded compared to the previous month [1] - The total foreign exchange surplus for September was reported at 51 billion USD, with a notable increase in both customer settlements and sales [1][3] - The overall scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments by banks for the first nine months of 2025 reached 11.6 trillion USD, marking a historical high for the same period [3] Foreign Exchange Data - In September 2025, banks settled 2,647 billion USD and sold 2,136 billion USD, with cumulative settlements from January to September reaching 1,853.3 billion USD and sales at 1,790.1 billion USD [2] - For the same month, banks recorded foreign income of 48,409 billion RMB and payments of 48,629 billion RMB, with cumulative figures for the first nine months at 420,628 billion RMB in income and 412,029 billion RMB in payments [2] Market Trends - The foreign exchange market is characterized by balanced supply and demand, with a significant increase in customer settlements and sales in September [3] - The cross-border capital flow remains active, with a total of 1.37 trillion USD in cross-border income and expenditure in September, reflecting a 7% month-on-month growth [3] - The trade surplus for September was reported at 645.47 billion RMB, with exports and imports showing year-on-year growth of 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the upcoming peak period for corporate financial settlements and profit distributions may lead to an increase in bank customer settlements, potentially supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4] - The transition of China's economy from external demand to internal demand may lead to a decrease in the contribution of trade surpluses to settlement and sales [5] - The complexity of factors influencing customer settlement and sales data indicates that these figures should not be directly equated with cross-border capital flows or RMB exchange rate changes [4][5]