Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate amid uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, highlighting the impact on cross-border capital flows and the overall economic environment [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - In July, the RMB exchange rate continued to show narrow fluctuations, with the CFETS RMB index and BIS currency basket index rising by 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, ending a six-month decline [1] - The SDR currency basket index also reversed a previous decline of 0.9% to increase by 1.5% [1] - Despite these increases, the three major exchange rate indices fell by 4.6%, 4.3%, and 3.2% respectively in the first seven months of the year, indicating that the RMB's passive appreciation has not adversely affected export competitiveness [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The RMB central parity rate strengthened for the third consecutive month in July, while the onshore spot exchange rate fell by 0.4% to around 7.19 [2] - The average deviation between the central parity and onshore spot rates increased from 0.1% to 0.3%, the highest in three months [2] - The average onshore exchange rate rose by 0.1% to 7.1727, marking the third consecutive month of appreciation [2] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In July, banks recorded a foreign exchange payment deficit of $7.7 billion, with the RMB payment deficit increasing to $43.3 billion, the third highest on record [3] - The foreign currency payment surplus decreased to $35.6 billion, but remained historically high [3] - The main contributor to the deficit was securities investment, which accounted for 160% of the shift from surplus to deficit [3] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks has increased, while there has been a significant reduction in holdings of RMB-denominated bonds, leading to record high outflows [2][3] - The reduction in bond holdings is attributed to a narrowing of forward dollar discounts, which decreased the attractiveness of RMB bond investments [3] Forward Exchange Transactions - In July, banks recorded a surplus in forward foreign exchange transactions for the fifth consecutive month, with a surplus of $45.6 billion, the highest in five months [4] - The increase in surplus was primarily driven by foreign exchange derivatives transactions, which rose by $16 billion [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The article indicates that the market does not exhibit strong expectations for RMB appreciation despite previous trends, suggesting a potential for slight depreciation pressure on the currency [2][5] - The overall supply of foreign exchange in the domestic market is believed to be greater than the reported surplus, indicating a more complex market dynamic [5]

管涛、刘立品（管涛系中银证券全球首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘 要 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性，但市场反应弱化，美元指数止跌回升，在岸人民币时点汇率有所回调，均值汇率则继续走强，但市场 主体并未积累补涨预期。 7月份，跨境资金转为小幅净流出，外资对股票资产兴趣增强，但远期美元贴水幅度大幅收窄导致外资减持人民币债券规模创下历史新高，跨境人民币和 证券投资支出规模均刷新历史纪录。 7月份，银行结售汇顺差继续扩大，市场主体囤积和抢购外汇动机减弱，金融机构境内外汇存款余额从月度"七连升"转为下降。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 8月15日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年7月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对7月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元指数止跌回升，人民币汇率明弱实强，市场主体并未积累补涨预期 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性。在4月2日宣布"对等关税"、4月9日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"90天之后，特朗普于7月7日宣 布延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日；7月31日签署行 ...

Core Insights - In July, banks in China reported a settlement of 16,700 billion yuan and a sale of 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange transactions [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 12% in settlement and 16% in sales, resulting in a surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - Cross-border capital flows have been generally stable, with non-bank sectors maintaining high levels of income and expenditure, leading to a balanced flow [1] Group 1 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high operational level [1] - The net outflow of funds from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] - The overall foreign exchange market is characterized by stable expectations and active trading, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sale rate among enterprises and individuals [1]

Group 1 - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 16,700 billion yuan and sold 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - For the first seven months of the year, banks cumulatively settled 98,835 billion yuan and sold 99,020 billion yuan, with total foreign exchange income at 326,705 billion yuan and payments at 318,116 billion yuan [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sales rate, reflecting a stable market expectation and active trading [1] Group 2 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payments [1] - The international foreign exchange market has experienced increased volatility, with the dollar index rebounding and then retreating, leading to adjustments in non-dollar currencies [1] - The cross-border capital flow has remained generally stable, with non-bank sectors' cross-border income and expenditure at historically high levels, indicating a balanced income and expenditure situation [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed a robust performance in July, with a settlement surplus of 22.8 billion USD, indicating market resilience and stability [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, banks settled 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, resulting in a settlement surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The settlement and sales volumes increased by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month, maintaining a surplus trend [3] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached historical highs, reflecting a balanced state of receipts and payments [5] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market participants exhibited rational behavior, with a slight increase in settlement willingness and stable sales willingness, supporting stable market expectations [4] - The active trading environment indicates enhanced confidence among various market participants despite increased volatility in the international foreign exchange market [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - The cross-border capital flow remained stable, with a slight deficit of 0.077 billion USD in July, indicating no significant inflow or outflow [5] - The net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, showcasing strong performance in foreign trade and improved international competitiveness [5] - Cumulative surplus of 119.5 billion USD in cross-border receipts and payments over the first seven months further confirms the stability and sustainability of capital flows [5]

李斌表示，7月以来，国际汇市波动加大，美元指数反弹后回落，非美货币随之波动调整。 "我国外汇市场保持平稳运行。"李斌进一步分析，一是市场预期和交易平稳有序。7月，银行结汇和售 汇规模环比分别增长12%和16%，结售汇延续顺差态势，规模为228亿美元。企业、个人等主体结汇率 环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。二是跨境资金流动总体稳定。7 月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡；其中，货物贸易资金 净流入环比增长33%，保持高位运行；服务贸易、投资收益资金净流出环比分别增长34%和7%，主要是 居民暑期出境旅行、企业分红派息处于季节性高位。我国经济高质量发展稳步推进，加之外汇市场韧性 不断增强，都将为外汇市场保持稳健运行提供有力支撑。 ● 本报记者彭扬 8月15日，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就7月外汇市场形势回答记者提问时表示，7月，企 业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡；其中，货物贸易资金净流入 环比增长33%，保持高位运行。 国家外汇管理局当日发布的数据显示，7月，银行结汇16700亿元人民币，售汇15070亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is maintaining stable operations, with significant cross-border income and expenditure levels in July, indicating a balanced flow of funds [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In July, the bank's foreign exchange settlement reached 16,700 billion RMB, while the foreign exchange sales amounted to 15,070 billion RMB, showing a month-on-month increase of 12% and 16% respectively [1][2]. - The cumulative foreign exchange settlement from January to July was 98,835 billion RMB, with sales at 99,020 billion RMB, reflecting a slight surplus in the settlement [1]. - The net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level of operation [1][2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Expectations - The exchange rate expectations and trading activities are stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a steady sales rate among enterprises and individuals [2]. - The overall cross-border capital flow remains stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure at historical highs, indicating a balanced flow [2]. - Factors such as high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support continued stability [2].

一是市场预期和交易平稳有序。7月，银行结汇和售汇规模环比分别增长12%和16%，结售汇延续顺差 态势，规模为228亿美元。企业、个人等主体结汇率环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳 定，交易较为活跃。 二是跨境资金流动总体稳定。7月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支 基本平衡。其中，货物贸易资金净流入环比增长33%，保持高位运行；服务贸易、投资收益资金净流出 环比分别增长34%和7%，主要是居民暑期出境旅行、企业分红派息处于季节性高位。 "我国经济高质量发展稳步推进，加之外汇市场韧性不断增强，都将为外汇市场保持稳健运行提供有力 支撑。"李斌表示。 "7月以来，国际汇市波动加大，美元指数反弹后回落，非美货币随之波动调整。我国外汇市场保持平稳 运行。"国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示。 ◎记者 常佩琦 国家外汇管理局8月15日披露数据显示，7月，银行结汇2336亿美元，售汇2108亿美元；银行代客涉外收 入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元。今年前7个月，银行累计结汇13768亿美元，累计售汇13793亿美 元；银行代客累计涉外收入45510亿美元，累计对外付款443 ...

国家外汇管理局8月15日公布的2025年7月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据显示，7月外汇市场预 期和交易平稳有序，非银行部门跨境收支规模处于历史高位。7月货物贸易资金净流入环比增长33%， 继续保持高位运行。 7月以来，美元指数反弹后回落，非美货币随之波动调整。在此背景下，当月银行结售汇表现平稳，延 续顺差态势，体现出我国企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。数据显示，7月银行结汇2336亿 美元，售汇2108亿美元，环比分别增长12%和16%。据国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍， 7月企业、个人等主体结汇率环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。 近年来，企业汇率风险中性意识不断提高，人民币跨境交易稳步增长。今年上半年，企业外汇套期保值 比率、货物贸易项下人民币跨境收支占比均达到30%左右，均创历史新高。李斌对此曾表示，外汇风险 敞口降低，有助于市场保持理性交易。 今年7月，反映企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金流动情况的银行代客涉外收支规模稳步增加，并处于 历史高位。其中，银行代客涉外收入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元，小幅逆差77亿美元，收支基本 平衡。前7个月， ...

本报记者 刘琪 一是市场预期和交易平稳有序。7月份，银行结汇和售汇规模环比分别增长12%和16%，结售汇延续顺差态势，规模为228 亿美元。企业、个人等主体结汇率环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。 二是跨境资金流动总体稳定。7月份，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡。其 中，货物贸易资金净流入环比增长33%，保持高位运行；服务贸易、投资收益资金净流出环比分别增长34%和7%，主要是居民 暑期出境旅行、企业分红派息处于季节性高位。 李斌表示，我国经济高质量发展稳步推进，加之外汇市场韧性不断增强，都将为外汇市场保持稳健运行提供有力支撑。 （编辑 郭之宸） 8月15日，国家外汇管理局公布的2025年7月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。数据显示，按美元计值，2025年7 月份，银行结汇2336亿美元，售汇2108亿美元。2025年1月份至7月份，银行累计结汇13768亿美元，累计售汇13793亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年7月份，银行代客涉外收入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元。2025年1月份至7月份，银行代客累计 涉外收入45510亿美元， ...