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33387亿美元!外汇储备创年内新高,央行连续第11个月增持黄金
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-08 04:57
北京商报讯(记者 刘四红)最新一期外储数据公布。10月7日,国家外汇管理局统计数据显示,截至2025年9月末,我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元,较8 月末上升165亿美元,升幅为0.5%。北京商报记者注意到,这是我国外汇储备连续两个月站上3.3万亿美元大关,创2015年12月以来最高。 从中期来看,伴随着全球贸易形势依旧不明朗、地缘政治不确定性持续、市场对美元体系和美元资产信心走弱等态势,庞溟预计,各国央行和投资者将会继 续增持黄金投资,并以其投资需求和避险需求持续为金价提供支持。 另从长期来看,庞溟认为,黄金在避险、抗通胀、长期保值增值等方面仍存在不可替代的优点,兼具金融和商品的多重属性,因此我国央行推进国际储备多 元化、在组合配置中加入和动态调整黄金储备的战术操作不会改变,持续增持黄金的战略方向也不会改变。 展望后续,温彬称,美国特朗普政府"对等关税"政策基本落地,多数经济体税率低于4月最初设定的水平,中美贸易谈判亦稳步推进,国际贸易环境的不确 定性有所收敛,叠加我国贸易伙伴多元化、出口商品结构优化,出口继续发挥稳定跨境资金流动的基本盘作用。我国稳步扩大金融市场开放,拓宽跨境投融 资渠道,人民币多元化资 ...
管涛:人民币升值动能增强,市场预期基本稳定
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 03:28
Core Viewpoint - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained generally stable [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2%, influenced by weaker employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]. - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and an accelerated average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [2]. - By the end of August, the central parity rate and onshore and offshore yuan exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, banks recorded a surplus of $3.2 billion in foreign exchange payments, reversing a deficit of $7.7 billion from the previous month, with foreign currency payments contributing significantly to this surplus [10]. - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, indicating increased foreign interest in Chinese equity assets [11]. - The overall net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors amounted to approximately $39 billion, dominating the inflow into emerging market investment portfolios [11]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange [16]. - The ratio of foreign exchange receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the payment-to-purchase ratio rose to 62.0%, the highest in seven months, suggesting a lack of accumulated expectations for yuan appreciation [16][18]. Group 4: Trade and Investment Trends - The surplus in goods trade payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [15]. - Direct investment payments recorded a deficit of $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years, indicating a slowdown in capital inflows [12].
8月外汇市场分析报告:人民币升值动能增强,市场预期基本稳定
宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 24 日 相关研究报告 《2022 年外汇市场分析报告:人民币汇率大起 大落,彰显外汇市场韧性》20230201 《2023 年外汇市场分析报告:人民币汇率延续 调整,境内外汇供求和跨境资金流动生变》 20240123 《2024 年外汇市场分析报告:汇率维稳目标顺 利完成,境内外汇供求缺口扩大》20250123 《1 月外汇市场分析报告:人民币汇率双向波 动,外汇供求缺口继续扩大》20250221 《2 月外汇市场分析报告:人民币汇率延续双向 波动,外汇供求缺口收窄》20250321 《3 月外汇市场分析报告:特朗普关税政策加 码,银行结售汇差额转正》20250424 《4 月外汇市场分析报告:极限关税施压无碍银 行结售汇顺差扩大》20250521 《5 月外汇市场分析报告:中美贸易冲突缓和, 人民币汇率压力明显缓解,银行结售汇顺差继 续扩大》20250622 《6 月外汇市场分析报告:人民币汇率升值行情 延续,银行结售汇顺差继续扩大》20250725 《7 月外汇市场分析报告:汇率延续窄幅波动, 跨境资金流动生变》20250822 中银国际证 ...
人民币升值动能增强,市场预期基本稳定——8月外汇市场分析报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 00:44
来源:市场资讯 (来源:凭澜观涛) 分析师:管涛(中银证券全球首席经济学家) 分析师:刘立品(中银证券宏观分析师) 研报发布时间:2025年9月24日 摘 要 8月份,美联储降息预期强化,叠加市场对美联储独立性担忧加剧,促使美元重新转弱,人民币汇率升值动能增强,但市场预期保持基本稳定。 8月份,跨境资金转为净流入,主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响,外资对中国股票资产兴趣增强。 8月份,银行结售汇顺差收窄,市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强,表明人民币汇率加速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化,再次说明市场 主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 风险提示:地缘政治风险超预期,主要央行货币政策调整超预期,国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 9月19日,国家外汇管理局发布了2025年8月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对8月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下: 美元重新转弱,人民币升值动能增强,但市场预期保持基本稳定 美元指数重回下行态势。8月1日,美国劳工部公布的7月非农就业数据不及市场预期,叠加此前两个月数据大幅下修,导致美联储9月降息概率陡升。伴随 着就业市场走弱,8月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克 ...
跨境资金“高速路” 海南EF账户结算超千亿|活力中国调研行
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the multi-functional EF account in Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant step towards facilitating cross-border capital flow and enhancing the operational efficiency of multinational enterprises [1][3]. Group 1: EF Account Overview - The EF account is a unified onshore and offshore currency account system designed to streamline cross-border fund transfers for various entities, including domestic institutions, foreign institutions, foreign individuals, and financial institutions [1][3]. - The EF account allows for efficient fund transfers between domestic and foreign accounts, significantly improving the ease of cross-border trade and investment for enterprises [1][3]. Group 2: Applications and Benefits - The EF account supports a wide range of applications, including cross-border trade settlement, foreign exchange transactions, loans, trade financing, and foreign investment, thereby expanding its utility in international markets [3][4]. - Enterprises can choose between onshore and offshore exchange rates for transactions, which helps in managing exchange rate risks and reducing financial costs [3][5]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - Companies have reported a significant increase in the efficiency of cross-border transactions, with processing times reduced from 1-2 days to just 2-3 hours [4]. - The volume of cross-border settlement business for some companies has doubled year-on-year, with specific transactions reaching up to 820 million USD [5]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The EF account is expected to provide robust financial support for the higher level of openness in Hainan Free Trade Port post-closure, with ongoing adjustments to policies and rules to meet the diverse financial needs of enterprises [5].
跨境资金“高速路”,海南EF账户结算超千亿
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the EF account system in Hainan Free Trade Port facilitates cross-border capital flow, enhancing the efficiency and convenience for enterprises in international trade and investment [1][2]. Group 1: EF Account Overview - The EF account is a unified foreign and domestic currency account system established by banks in Hainan Free Trade Port, designed to streamline cross-border capital transactions [1]. - There are four types of EF accounts based on the account holder: EFE accounts for domestic institutions, EFN accounts for overseas institutions, EFF accounts for overseas individuals, and EFU accounts for domestic and foreign financial institutions [1]. Group 2: Benefits for Enterprises - Enterprises can complete cross-border fund transfers with just a payment instruction, eliminating the need for extensive documentation and approval processes, thus lowering operational costs [2]. - The EF account supports multiple currencies, including USD, EUR, and JPY, allowing enterprises to choose between onshore and offshore exchange rates for better financial management [2]. Group 3: Efficiency and Growth - The EF account has significantly improved the efficiency of cross-border transactions, reducing processing time from 1-2 days to 2-3 hours [3]. - As of August 2025, the number of cross-border settlement transactions has doubled compared to the previous year, with a notable increase in offshore trading activities [3]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The EF account will continue to provide robust financial support for higher levels of openness in Hainan Free Trade Port, adapting policies to meet the diverse financial needs of enterprises engaged in international trade [4].
存款搬家走到哪了?
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the banking and financial industry, particularly the trends in deposit migration and its implications for the capital market. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Deposit Migration Trends** - As of August, M1 growth increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6%, while M2 growth remained stable, indicating a continued trend towards liquidity in deposits. Corporate demand for current deposits rose to 6.7%, while household current deposit growth slightly decreased to 6.3% [2][3][4] 2. **Potential for Capital Market Inflows** - The potential scale for household deposits migrating to equity markets is estimated at 5 to 7 trillion RMB. However, the process is complex and not straightforward, influenced by various factors including liquidity in the financial system [2][3][12] 3. **Impact of Monetary Policy** - The central bank's liquidity provision remains ample, with an increase of 0.4 trillion RMB in August. Interbank market rates are maintained at around 1.4% to 1.5%, indicating a loose monetary environment. However, a net decrease of 110 billion RMB in the central bank's debt to other financial companies may signal regulatory shifts [4][11] 4. **Cross-Border Capital Flows** - The RMB exchange rate remained strong, with a shift from capital outflows to inflows in the A-share market. This change is attributed to improved foreign capital conditions and a reversal of previous outflow trends [5][9] 5. **Non-Bank Deposit Increases** - Non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion RMB year-on-year in August, primarily from funds entering brokerage margin accounts and fixed-income product accounts. This indicates a shift in investment preferences towards non-bank financial products [6][7] 6. **Investor Risk Appetite** - There is a notable increase in residents' risk appetite, with a shift from fixed-term to current and equity assets. The ratio of household savings to stock market capitalization has decreased from 210% to 157%, suggesting room for further capital market inflows [8][12] 7. **Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment** - Despite the potential for deposit migration, the pace has slowed due to factors such as preemptive fiscal and credit policies, increased investor divergence post-stock market rises, and a slowdown in export growth affecting capital flows [3][10][11] 8. **Future Outlook on Deposit Migration** - While the current pace of deposit migration is slowing, the potential remains significant. The estimated 5 to 7 trillion RMB potential for migration is expected to continue, albeit with fluctuations influenced by fiscal policies, market performance, and export dynamics [12] Other Important Insights - The trend of passive equity fund growth indicates a shift in investor behavior, with passive funds or ETFs becoming the primary choice for market entry [7] - The overall liquidity environment and regulatory changes will play crucial roles in shaping future capital market dynamics and deposit migration trends [4][11]
外汇市场活力和韧性增强 应对外部风险挑战底气更足
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 22:20
证券时报记者 贺觉渊 中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新9月22日在国新办新闻发布会上介绍"十四五"时期金融业 发展成就时表示,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要 货币中表现比较稳健。我国外汇市场运行平稳,不论是活力还是韧性都在增强。展望未来,外汇局应对 外部风险挑战的底气更足。 "十四五"以来,国际金融市场波动加大,我国外汇市场运行平稳。朱鹤新介绍,从市场活力看,2024 年,我国跨境收支规模为14万亿美元,较2020年增长64%,"十四五"时期年均增长速度比"十三五"时期 提高8个百分点。今年前8个月,我国跨境收支同比增长10%,跨境贸易和投融资活动持续活跃。 从市场韧性看,企业外汇套期保值的比率已经由2020年的17%上升到30%左右,人民币在跨境贸易中的 占比由16%上升到近30%。朱鹤新进一步指出,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动 总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要货币中的表现比较稳健。 "展望未来,我国经济基本面长期向好,高水平对外开放稳步推进,这奠定了国际收支自主平衡格局的 稳定。"朱鹤新表示,随着人民币汇率市场化形成机制不断完善,外汇市场宏 ...
中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新: 外汇市场活力和韧性增强 应对外部风险挑战底气更足
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-22 18:03
从市场韧性看,企业外汇套期保值的比率已经由2020年的17%上升到30%左右,人民币在跨境贸易中的 占比由16%上升到近30%。朱鹤新进一步指出,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动 总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要货币中的表现比较稳健。 中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新9月22日在国新办新闻发布会上介绍"十四五"时期金融业 发展成就时表示,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要 货币中表现比较稳健。我国外汇市场运行平稳,不论是活力还是韧性都在增强。展望未来,外汇局应对 外部风险挑战的底气更足。 "十四五"以来,国际金融市场波动加大,我国外汇市场运行平稳。朱鹤新介绍,从市场活力看,2024 年,我国跨境收支规模为14万亿美元,较2020年增长64%,"十四五"时期年均增长速度比"十三五"时期 提高8个百分点。今年前8个月,我国跨境收支同比增长10%,跨境贸易和投融资活动持续活跃。 "展望未来,我国经济基本面长期向好,高水平对外开放稳步推进,这奠定了国际收支自主平衡格局的 稳定。"朱鹤新表示,随着人民币汇率市场化形成机制不断完善,外汇市场宏观审慎管理更加有效,外 ...
朱鹤新:近年来我国跨境资金流动总体均衡,人民币汇率在主要货币中表现比较稳定
人民财讯9月22日电,9月22日,在介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成就时,中国人民银行副行长、国家外 汇局局长朱鹤新在国新办新闻发布会上表示,近年来面对高波动的国际市场环境,我国跨境资金流动总 体是均衡的,人民币汇率在主要货币中的表现是比较稳定的。展望未来,我国经济基本面长期向好,高 水平对外开放稳步推进,这奠定了国际收支自主平衡的格局的稳定。同时,人民币汇率形成机制不断完 善,外汇市场宏观审慎管理更加有效,所以我们应对外部风险挑战的底气更足,这将为"十五五"我国外 汇市场健康发展提供更加坚实的保障。 ...