智通财经APP获悉，根据美联储今年的压力测试情景，高盛(GS.US)在遭遇经济冲击时可能仅损失3亿美 元，远低于一年前预测的180亿美元。这也是该行向股东派发巨额股息的一个重要原因。 这一预测的大幅下滑反映出高盛近年来在降低风险敞口方面的努力。但同时，这也体现出美联储在压力 测试方法上的技术性调整，这些变化使得华尔街最大的银行更容易通过测试。因此，在周二，多家银行 宣布提高分红和启动股票回购。 多家银行都从这一更"宽松"的测试中受益，但没有哪一家像高盛那样受益明显。高盛宣布将其季度分红 提高33%，至每股4美元。由于预计损失大幅下降，其最低资本要求比例也从此前的13.6%降至10.9%， 为自2020年现行测试机制实施以来的最低水平。巴克莱银行分析师Jason Goldberg直言："高盛绝对是最 大的赢家。" 高盛和其他大型美国银行每年都需接受美联储的压力测试，以评估其应对市场冲击的能力。今年，美联 储假设经济在一年内下滑7.8%、失业率上升至10%、住房价格下降33%、商业地产价格下跌30%，来测 试银行的抗压能力。 美联储今年对压力测试的一个关键调整是在市场冲击情景中剔除了私募股权投资，而这一领域正是高 ...

华尔街大行通过宽松压力测试后宣布大额分红 金十数据7月2日讯，周二，华尔街多家大型银行在通过监管机构的"压力测试"后，宣布了一系列大规模 股东分红计划，而此次压力测试的条件较往年更为宽松。摩根大通、高盛、美国银行、摩根士丹利等银 行均表示，将提高向股东支付的季度股息，其中摩根大通和摩根士丹利还宣布将回购价值数十亿美元的 自家股票。今年的压力测试是美联储调整测试场景后的首次尝试，其设定的理论衰退程度较去年有所减 轻。尽管新测试方案在特朗普总统重新就职前就已制定，但这与特朗普政府所倡导的放宽银行监管政策 不谋而合。 ...

Core Insights - The annual stress test results indicate that all 22 tested banks passed, demonstrating strong capital levels under a less severe scenario compared to the previous year [1][7] - The Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision confirmed that large banks are well-capitalized and resilient to severe economic outcomes [1] Group 1: Stress Test Overview - The Federal Reserve conducts annual stress tests to assess the largest U.S. banks' ability to withstand significant economic downturns, determining minimum capital requirements and influencing share repurchases and dividends [2] - The stress test evaluates banks' financial resilience by estimating losses, revenues, expenses, and resulting capital levels under hypothetical economic conditions, including baseline and severely adverse scenarios [3] Group 2: Details of This Year's Test - This year's severely adverse scenario included a smaller increase in the unemployment rate and a less severe decline in house prices compared to the previous year [4] - All 22 banks maintained capital levels above the required threshold in a scenario where GDP contracts by 8%, commercial real estate prices decline by 30%, house prices drop by 33%, and the unemployment rate rises to 10% [5] Group 3: Capital Ratios and Loss Projections - The minimum common equity tier 1 capital ratio required to pass the test is 4.5%, while the banks collectively had a ratio of 11.6% during the stress scenario, absorbing projected hypothetical losses exceeding $550 billion [6] - Projected losses included approximately $158 billion in credit card losses, $124 billion from commercial and industrial loans, and $52 billion from commercial real estate [6] Group 4: Regulatory Implications - With all banks passing the stress test, they are positioned to issue dividends and buy back shares, returning capital to investors [7] - The Federal Reserve proposed easing capital rules, potentially freeing up $213 billion for bank subsidiaries and enhancing profitability [7][11] Group 5: Proposed Regulatory Changes - The Fed's proposal aims to reduce capital requirements for Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) by 1.4% or $13 billion, and for depository institution subsidiaries by 27% or $213 billion [11] - The proposed changes would replace current enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) buffers with a new structure based on each bank's GSIB surcharge, allowing banks more flexibility in managing low-risk assets [12]

这些改革建议得到了银行业的大力支持，但也引发了消费者权益保护人士和民主党议员的强烈反对。他 们警告称，降低资本要求将削弱金融体系的抗风险能力。非营利组织Better Markets在致美联储的公开信 中表示反对改革建议，该组织银行政策主任Shayna Olesiuk指出："在这个充满不确定性和波动的世界 中，让银行变得更具韧性，是压力测试的核心目标。"她强调："银行资本是阻止银行倒闭、金融危机、 纳税人买单以及经济与社会灾难的最后一道防线。" 本次测试的假设情景包括失业率飙升、房地产价格长期低迷及经济活动急剧下滑等。分析人士表示，今 年的情景设定整体上比去年宽松。Truist Securities的分析师在报告中提到："投资者普遍希望，得益于较 为轻松的测试情境和更健康的起始财务状况，银行的压力资本缓冲水平将有所下降。" 所谓资本计划，指的是银行在满足监管资本要求的前提下，如何安排利润分配，如回购股票和派发股 息。压力测试结果直接影响银行必须持有的资本水平，也就决定了银行有多少空间可以回馈股东。 自2007-2009年金融危机以来，年度压力测试成为监管银行的重要手段。然而，华尔街长期以来批评该 测试制度不透明 ...

Key Takeaways JPM, GS, BAC and others are expected to clear a milder 2025 Fed stress test with ease. A less severe scenario improves banks' flexibility to boost dividends and share buybacks. Last year, JPM and peers raised dividends post-test; this year's outlook is even more favorable.Big banks like JPMorgan (JPM) , Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) are expected to easily clear the 2025 stress test, the results of which will be released tomorrow, given that this year’s test will be less stress ...

美联储：2025年银行压力测试结果将于6月27日星期五东部时间下午（北京时间次日凌晨）4:30公布。 ...