盈利预测与投资建议。整体来看，25 年公司业绩符合预期，四季度净利率同环比回升。投资端补货力 度上升2 成，资产质量不断优化。预计26-27 年归母净利润33、67 亿元。合理价值方面，按保利25Q3 归母净资产（扣永续债）0.6xPB 估计，对应合理价值9.67 元/股，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示。购房者信心不足，景气度或持续维持低位，公司销售表现不及预期；房价下行存在减值压 力；促销手段影响利润率。 销售均价提升，投资端积极进取。根据公司经营公告，销售层面，25年公司销售金额2530 亿元，同 比-22%，销售均价2.05 万元/平，同比+13.9%。拿地层面，25 年公司全口径拿地金额791 亿元，同比 +16%，拿地权益比88%维持不变。拿地金额/销售金额为31%，同比回升10pct，全口径拿地货值1537 亿 元，权益拿地货值1355 亿元，权益补货力度为68%，较24 年提升20pct。25 年公司共在25 个城市获取 52个项目，一线城市资源占比从24 年的74%降至25 年的48%，二线占比从24 年21%提升至43%，三四 线占比从24 年的4%提升至10%。 业绩符合预期。公司发布业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuanyuan Group (00551) has seen a stock increase of over 3%, currently at 16.69 HKD with a trading volume of 63.76 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company amid mixed performance in the international sports brand sector [1] Industry Summary - International sports brands have released their Q3 financial reports, with On Running and Asics showing leading growth, while Adidas and Deckers performed steadily. Puma, VF, and Under Armour continued to show weak performance [1] - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to demonstrate strong performance stability and certainty, with core client Nike anticipated to stabilize, and companies experiencing high customer concentration [1] Company Summary - Yuanyuan Group's Q3 manufacturing business saw a decline in shipment volume due to a high base, but profit margins improved unexpectedly due to enhanced production efficiency and an increase in average selling price (ASP) [1] - Retail revenue decline has narrowed on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with expectations for stabilization in the future [1] - UBS reported that the company's third-quarter OEM business profit margin improved compared to the first half of the year, attributed to reduced overtime, increased worker familiarity with orders, and stabilization of U.S. tariff policies [1] - UBS anticipates a year-on-year decline in Yuanyuan Group's Q4 sales, but an increase in sales price is expected. Looking ahead to next year, a potential recovery of certain brands could benefit the company, especially if upcoming holiday sales perform strongly, enhancing brand confidence and attracting new clients [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in contract sales but showed improvements in sales price and asset operations, indicating a focus on core markets and effective cash flow management [4][5][6]. Sales Performance - For the period of January to August 2025, the company achieved contract sales of 136.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with a sales area of 5.12 million square meters, down 23.3% [4]. - The average sales price increased significantly, reaching 26,800 yuan per square meter, an 11.9% year-on-year increase, while the company maintained a top-three position in the industry sales ranking [5]. Asset Operations - The asset operation segment showed steady growth, contributing significantly to performance and long-term cash flow stability. In the first half of 2025, the segment generated revenue of 12.11 billion yuan, a 5.5% increase year-on-year [6]. - The total area of shopping centers reached 11.85 million square meters, a 13.3% increase, with 94 operational centers generating retail sales of 110.15 billion yuan, up 20.2% [6]. Financial Management - The company adheres to a cash flow safety principle, holding cash reserves of 120.24 billion yuan and maintaining a net debt ratio of 39.2% [8]. - The average financing cost decreased by 32 basis points to 2.79%, maintaining the lowest level in the industry, reflecting significant credit advantages [8].