Group 1 - Lithium stocks continued to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium down 3.79% at HKD 45.7 and Tianqi Lithium down 2.03% at HKD 43.5 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures have significantly dropped, with the main contract falling over 4% on November 4, currently priced at CNY 78,520 per ton [1] - There are reports of a key breakthrough in the resumption approval of the mining operations by CATL, but the final confirmation of the resumption status is still uncertain [1] Group 2 - Current supply and demand are both strong, but high lithium carbonate production levels are leading to increased cautiousness among downstream consumers, indicating a potential turning point in demand [1] - If demand weakness is confirmed, there is further room for price correction in lithium [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continued to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium down 3.79% at HKD 45.7 and Tianqi Lithium down 2.03% at HKD 43.5 [1] - The recent significant drop in lithium carbonate futures was influenced by supply-side news, with the main contract falling over 4% on November 4, currently priced at CNY 78,520 per ton [1] - There are reports of a key breakthrough in the resumption approval of the Jiangxi lithium mines by CATL, but the final confirmation of the resumption status is still pending [1] Group 2 - Current supply and demand are both strong, but the repeated news of Jiangxi lithium mine resumption has led to high lithium carbonate production, which is increasing cautious sentiment among downstream consumers [1] - There is a potential turning point in demand for power, and if demand weakness is confirmed, there may be further price corrections expected in lithium prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: There are no disturbances on the resource side. Although the port ore inventory has decreased, it remains at a high level overall. The rising futures prices have encouraged spot suppliers to actively sell, but downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase. Material manufacturers make purchases based on rigid demand, and the spot resources are abundant. The market trading is relatively stable. The energy storage market continues to be hot, and the power terminal consumption is acceptable, but some car companies plan to reduce production. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rising futures prices, lithium ore prices have strengthened. - Futures market: On Monday, the main contract hit a new low since listing. Then, the market sentiment reversed. Lithium prices rose significantly in the middle of the week and opened higher on Friday, closing above the 30 - day moving average. Overall, there was a trend of rising prices with decreasing positions during the week. The trading volume was significantly released at the beginning of the week, but on the day when the price hit a new high at the end of the week, the trading volume was lower than the previous high. - Outlook: The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and the price increase lacks substantial drivers. Lithium prices may回调. Fundamentally, the rising lithium prices provide a comfortable hedging space for upstream producers. At the same time, many smelters have made breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology. While the expected upstream production is increasing, the cost center may decline. The production increase of material manufacturers in July is limited. The energy storage market may continue to be hot driven by policies. The power terminal sales are acceptable, but the expected reduction in car company production may drag down the production plans of upstream material manufacturers and battery cell manufacturers, and the consumer side may not see significant improvement. Driven by the strong supply expectation, the fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally. However, it should be noted that the short - sellers' profit - taking demand is strong recently, and the positions have decreased during the week, which may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore: 1.3% - 2.2% | 108 | 106 | 2.00 | 1.89% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5.00 | 0.79% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5 | 0.79% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.169 | 7.186 | - 0.02 | - 0.23% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 6.33 | 5.91 | 0.42 | 7.07% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0.00 | 5.85 | - 5.85 | - 100.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 6.32 | 5.97 | 0.35 | 5.89% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) | 5.90 | 5.98 | - 0.08 | - 1.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles) | 6.35 | 6.45 | - 0.10 | - 1.55% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 110305 | 103436 | 6869 | 6.64% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 20.40 | 0.50 | 2.45% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.55 | 14.55 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last week's market analysis** - **Regulation and delivery**: As of June 27, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 21,998 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,340 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 341,400 lots. - **Supply side**: According to Baichuan data, as of June 27, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,598 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous period. With the significant increase in lithium prices during the week, lithium salt factories have another hedging opportunity, and the operating rate may remain high. In addition, some mica enterprises in Jiangxi announced major breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, and the cost center has moved down, which may further increase the supply of lithium extraction from hard - rock ores. The production of salt lake resources is on the rise, and policy regulation has limited impact on salt lake production. - **Imports**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Currently, Chile and Argentina are still the main sources of China's lithium carbonate imports, accounting for about 63% and 31% respectively. In May, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. Overall, the shipment volume from Chile in May was significantly weaker. - **Lithium ore imports**: In May, about 605,000 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, the import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, with 371,000 tons and 52,000 tons imported respectively. In contrast, the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% to about 15,000 tons. - **Demand side** - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of June 27, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,667 tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,496 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,300 tons, with an operating rate of 48.65%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. The prices of cathode materials have increased to varying degrees due to the rising lithium carbonate prices. - **New energy vehicles**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase from the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. However, with the base gradually rising after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Affected by the payment deadline policy, car companies may enter the active inventory reduction stage, which will have a negative impact on upstream battery cell manufacturers and material manufacturers. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 110,305 tons, an increase of about 6,869 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 35,275 tons, an increase of about 408 tons; the market inventory was 75,030 tons, an increase of about 6,464 tons; the exchange inventory was 21,998 tons, a decrease of 5,795 tons from the previous week. [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - **This week's outlook** The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and lithium prices are expected to decline. The price increase lacks substantial drivers, and lithium prices may回调. The fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally, but the short - sellers' profit - taking may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [15] 3.3 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium has completed the development and verification of relevant processes and equipment for lithium sulfide industrialization, which is beneficial for promoting the development of the all - solid - state battery industry chain. - Wukuang Xinneng has achieved cumulative shipments of hundreds of kilograms of all - solid - state battery cathode materials. - Yinglian Co., Ltd. is researching and developing lithium metal/composite current collector anode integrated materials for solid - state batteries, and the industrialization progress of the composite current collector sector is advancing. [16] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of related batteries, including lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [18][20][23][27][29][30]