Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the export tax rebate policy on the lithium battery industry chain, highlighting a profit redistribution within the sector as a result of changing market dynamics and regulatory adjustments [2][6][21]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 12, carbon lithium futures surged to a limit up, reaching 156,060 yuan per ton, marking a return to the 150,000 yuan threshold after two years [3]. - The spot market also saw increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging around 152,000 yuan per ton, and industrial-grade at approximately 149,000 yuan per ton, both up by over 10,000 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - In the Hong Kong stock market, lithium battery stocks showed mixed reactions, with companies like CATL and China Graphite experiencing declines, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw gains [4]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain lithium battery materials starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% during 2026 [8]. - This policy is seen as a clear timeline that the market interprets in two ways: a short-term window for preemptive orders and production, and a long-term impact on profit margins for battery exports [9]. Group 3: Profit Redistribution - The article notes a divergence in stock performance, with battery manufacturing viewed as facing cost pressures while lithium resource companies are seen as benefiting from demand resilience [10]. - The adjustment in export tax is perceived not just as a financial change but as a corrective signal against external trade friction and internal price competition [11][12]. - The market is increasingly viewing this policy as a potential shift in pricing strategies rather than a minor financial adjustment [12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the recent price surge in lithium carbonate has been building over the past month, with prices consistently breaking through key thresholds [13]. - The psychological and strategic significance of these price levels is highlighted, as they attract more capital into the market [14]. - There is a noted discrepancy in market sentiment regarding whether the price increase is driven by genuine demand or speculative funding, with a significant portion of the capital in the futures market being speculative [17]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The article mentions that regulatory actions have been implemented to temper trading enthusiasm, including increasing minimum order sizes and setting daily trading limits [19][20]. - The export tax policy provides a narrative that the market can engage with, focusing on the timing and profit redistribution within the lithium supply chain [21].