Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth in production and demand, with notable increases in both battery and phosphoric iron lithium cathode material output in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2]. Production - In November 2025, domestic battery production reached 176.3 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.66% and a month-on-month increase of 3.34% [1][2]. - The production of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in December 2025 was 26.93 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.48% and a month-on-month growth of 0.16%, with a capacity utilization rate of 59.85% [1][2]. Pricing - As of January 9, 2026, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 138,000 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 17.92% [3]. - The price of phosphoric iron lithium (for power) was reported at 47,100 yuan per ton on January 9, 2026, up 4.43% from January 4 [3]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate slightly decreased to 160,700 yuan per ton on January 10, 2026, down 10.72% from January 3 [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the monthly shipment volume of phosphoric iron lithium batteries reached 75.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 43.62% and a month-on-month increase of 11.56%, setting a new high for the year [4]. - The monthly shipment volume of ternary power batteries was 18.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.82% and a month-on-month increase of 10.30% [4]. - The new bidding capacity for domestic new energy storage projects in January to October 2025 was higher than in the same period of 2024, with a total new bidding scale of 21.8 GW/64 GWh in November, marking a month-on-month increase of 65% [4]. - In November 2025, China's battery exports were 21.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 69.60% and a month-on-month increase of 9.28% [4]. - Global sales of new energy vehicles reached 2 million units in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.53% and a month-on-month increase of 4.63% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The domestic production of batteries and phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials in January to November 2025 exceeded that of 2024, with stable raw material and cell prices, and an increase in monthly battery shipments and new energy storage bidding capacity [5]. - The rising demand for lithium batteries suggests a focus on companies involved in lithium battery materials [5]. - Recommended companies include CATL (300750), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014), Xinwanda (300207), Hunan Youneng (301358), Rongbai Technology (688005), Tianci Materials (002709), and Duofluoride (002407) [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resilience of demand in the battery industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets [2][4] - In a pessimistic scenario with zero growth in the domestic market, global demand for power batteries is still expected to grow by 25%, while a neutral forecast suggests a 30% growth probability, with leading manufacturers like CATL indicating a production guidance of 50% [2] - The fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year are expected to see strong production due to delayed order deliveries and optimistic expectations for the upcoming year, leading to preemptive inventory stocking [2] Group 2 - The global growth rate for power batteries is projected to be around 20% next year, driven by increased range requirements for plug-in hybrid vehicles and significant growth in electric heavy trucks, which is expected to rise by 50% [4] - In the overseas market, Europe is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30%, driven by new vehicle cycles, while emerging markets may see growth rates exceeding 40%. However, the U.S. market may experience a decline of 10% due to anticipated policy adjustments [4] - The energy storage battery segment is expected to see an upward revision in shipment volume to 600 GWh this year, with a projected growth rate of 50% to over 900 GWh next year, indicating a clear long-term growth trend [4]