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瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251126
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 09:10
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with positive demand expectations and inventory reduction in the industry. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 96,340 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 165,500 lots, down 2,032 lots; the position of the main contract was 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 440 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 27,050 lots, up 435 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,400 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,180 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 38,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000, up 155,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000, up 111,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000, up 3,193,000; the monthly export volume was 256,000, up 34,000; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000, up 956,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 61.17%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day average volatility was 45.79%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position was 257,186 lots, up 716; the total put position was 234,433 lots, up 31,755; the put - call ratio of the total position was 91.15%, up 12.1271%; the implied volatility at the at - the - money strike was 0.40%, up 0.0203% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium's chairman said that the global lithium demand in 2026 is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and the industry will break through homogeneous competition. European car sales in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with different performances among brands. The new national standard for mobile power is expected to be officially released in February or March next year, and the industry cost may increase by 20% - 30% [2]