改革开放的春风吹绿了湟水河谷。1980年，西宁城区内陆续出现了个体经营的杂货铺；1992年，青海铝 厂建成投产；2000年，西部大开发战略实施，青藏铁路二期工程开工；2016年7月1日，当首列火车鸣笛 驶过昆仑山口时，整个青海都沸腾了，交通的改善带来了人流、物流、信息流，青海开始融入国家发展 大局；2020年，青海省42个贫困县全部摘帽；而如今，青海的清洁能源装机占比全国领先，锂产业、光 伏产业蓬勃发展。每当我乘车经过塔拉滩光伏园区，那片蓝色的"光伏海洋"总让我心潮澎湃——昔日的 荒漠已成为新能源的沃土。 青海的历史告诉我们：无论环境多么艰苦，只要保持精神的高度，就能创造生命的奇迹；无论挑战多么 巨大，只要各民族团结一心，就能凝聚无坚不摧的力量。当我们把个人奋斗融入时代洪流，就能在砥砺 前行中书写属于新时代的青海故事。这故事里，有对历史的敬畏，有对现实的担当，更有对未来的憧憬 ——正如青海湖畔盛开的格桑花，扎根沃土，向阳而生。 我立于北山，俯瞰城市全景，它似凤凰展翅般翱翔于两山之间。这座平均海拔2216米的高原古城，如今 已然蜕变为现代化的区域中心城市。30年前，将近一半城区还是绿意盎然的农田；60年前，这里 ...

Monetary Policy - On December 31, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion CNY at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 502.8 billion CNY after accounting for 26 billion CNY maturing reverse repos [1] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.22% [2] - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil and petrochemicals underperformed [2] Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise on December 31, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks. Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Zijin Mining also experiencing gains [3][6] Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper's stock reached a peak of 55.28 CNY, with a trading volume of 584,500 hands and a market capitalization of 191.32 billion CNY [4] - Jiamai Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 CNY per share [7][10] - The stock of Hengtong Light surged by 1007.95% upon its debut on the Beijing Stock Exchange, opening at 350 CNY per share [11][13] Company Announcements - Jiamai Packaging announced that its main business had not undergone significant changes, and there are no plans for major asset restructuring in the near future [10] - Hengtong Light, established in 2011, focuses on passive optical device products and has a client base that includes major companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [11][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin Industry - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, with a steady increase in imports in November and a significant increase in Indonesia's exports in November. The trading volume of the exchange in December also remained at a relatively high level. - In the demand aspect, tin solder enterprises in South China showed certain resilience, while those in East China were more obviously affected. - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, and the tin price has fluctuated sharply. It is recommended to be cautious in operation and pay attention to the macro and supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations is more of an emotional drive, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended that pre - existing long positions be closed at high prices [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum prices and the market trading became light. The cost is strongly supported, but the demand is weak. The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [5]. Zinc Industry - The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, but the opening of the zinc ore import window may ease the short - term supply pressure. The increase in refined zinc production is limited, while the demand side is better, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. - In the future, the price is expected to be mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventories [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. The price is expected to enter a shock adjustment stage, and attention should be paid to the support level [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a slight decline, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the intensity of production reduction [13]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon futures further reduced positions and rebounded. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industrial chain by raising prices, but the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [14]. Nickel Industry - The Indonesian government's plan to cut nickel production has driven up market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains to be seen. The short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market was driven by raw material nickel, and the market sentiment improved. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. It is expected to maintain a strong shock adjustment in the short term [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a large amplitude. The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The price is supported by fundamentals, but the new driving force is limited. The market is affected by market sentiment, and the disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock before the New Year's Day [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 5.82% to 323,500 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 12.50% to 350 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 26.92% to 95.00 dollars/ton [2]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 7.19% to - 13,988.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at 7.87 [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 70.73%, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 18.06% [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, the output of refined tin decreased by 0.81%, the import volume of refined tin increased by 127.19%, and the export volume increased by 31.62%. - The average operating rate of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.76%, and the operating rate of SMM solder enterprises increased by 0.96% [2]. Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, social inventory increased by 2.02%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68%, and LME inventory increased by 3.60% [2]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.38% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - The prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged [4]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 34.3 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 1.1 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread of AL 2601 - 2602 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of AL 2602 - 2603 remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of alumina decreased by 4.44%, the domestic output of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas output decreased by 3.50%. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83%, and the export volume increased by 116.23%. - The operating rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the inventory of various types increased to varying degrees [4]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - The prices of various types of SMM ADC12 decreased by 0.45%. - The refined - scrap price differences of various types of aluminum increased to varying degrees [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 25.0 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. - The import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.19%, and the export volume decreased by 0.97%. - The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.06% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.60% to 23,300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Ratio and Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 175.63 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 10.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10.00 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of refined zinc decreased by 3.56%, the import volume decreased by 3.22%, and the export volume increased by 402.59%. - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased to varying degrees. - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 10.12%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 3.10% to 97,620 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 90.00 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 33.11% [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of electrolytic copper increased by 1.05%, and the import volume decreased by 3.90%. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 27.55% [10]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of some types changed to varying degrees [13]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees, such as the spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 16.67% [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national output of industrial silicon decreased by 11.17%, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. - The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, and the output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 21.78% [13]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 2.33%, the social inventory increased by 0.36%, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.09% [13]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 37.45% [14]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 4.16%, and the spreads of some contracts changed to varying degrees [14]. Fundamental Data - The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 3.19%, and the monthly output decreased by 10.35%. - The monthly output of polysilicon decreased by 14.48%, the import volume decreased by 27.05%, and the export volume increased by 108.68% [14]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.65% to 132,550 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.55% to 136,150 yuan/ton. - LME 0 - 3 decreased by 14.82% to - 170 dollars/ton [15]. Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP increased by 0.19%, and the cost from integrated high - grade nickel matte decreased by 3.60% [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread of 2602 - 2603 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread of 2604 - 2605 increased by 100 yuan/ton [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The output of refined nickel in China decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.85% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.77%. - The prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.27% [18]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, and 2604 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [18]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the output in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 9.68%, and the export volume increased by 13.18%. - The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.43%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.50% [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 118,000 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. - The price of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.68% [20]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, and 2601 - 2605 decreased to varying degrees [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume decreased by 7.64%, and the export volume increased by 208.75%. - The total inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

"今年全球储能市场需求实现了超预期增长，预估明年还有50%以上的增速。"上海钢联电子商务股份有限公司新能源事业 部锂业分析师李攀在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 本报记者 丁蓉 2025年，碳酸锂价格经历了"先抑后扬"的宽幅震荡。Wind数据显示，碳酸锂价格今年年初从7.52万元/吨震荡下行，于6月 24日触及5.99万元/吨，一度跌破6万元/吨关口，下半年价格则快速上行，12月25日报10.49万元/吨。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："2025年，碳酸锂价格大幅波动，是矿端扰动、预期变 化与供需博弈共同作用的结果。展望2026年，由于供需格局优化、资源秩序规范与需求稳步增长，行业将进入更稳健的发展阶 段。" 明年市场有望供需双增 "在供给端，今年上半年，高成本产能持续出清，但供给仍偏宽松。进入下半年，矿端减产事件频发，扰动市场情绪，成 为市场行情扭转向上的重要推手之一。"付一夫分析。 在需求端，全球储能市场迎来爆发式增长，成为拉高碳酸锂价格的主要引擎。根据高工产研储能研究所调研统计，2025年 第三季度中国储能锂电池出货量165GWh，同比增长65%，预计全年总出货量达到58 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：日加息预期扰动 铜价面临调整风险 1、宏观。海外方面，美联储议息会议如期降息25个基点，并启动短期美债购买。点阵图显示明年预计 会有一次25个基点的降息，这意味着明年的降息动作将较今年明显放缓。鲍威尔表示购债规模未来几个 月或维持较高水平，就业市场逐步降温但慢于预期，目前利率所处位置使美联储能够耐心等待，观察经 济接下来将如何演变。下周将召开日央行议息会议，关注是否重启加息，日本央行重启加息预期或导致 过去"日元套利交易"出现平仓潮，给全球风险资产特别是美元资产构成较大压力。国内方面，关注即将 到来的中央经济工作会议。 2、基本面。铜精矿方面，国内TC报价仍处在历史低位，维系着铜精矿紧张情绪，成为基本面的强支撑 因素，且年末长协谈判仍在进行，预计TC报价对冶炼厂并不有利。精铜产量方面，12月电解铜预估产 量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增加6.69%，12月冶炼企业有冲产量的惯性，这也无疑会凸显精矿 紧张态势。进口方面，国内10月精铜净进口同比下降31.56%至25.72万吨，累计同比下降4.67%；10月废 铜进口量环比增加6 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

Price Increase in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that starting in 2026, processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, while others are still in negotiations, but the trend towards price hikes is seen as inevitable, which may help restore profit levels in the industry [1] Battery Production and Demand Growth - In November, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 93.5 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total installation, making up 80.5% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0% [2] Lithium Demand Forecast - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium stated that due to the demand from renewable energy integration and the rapid growth of commercial electric vehicles, the demand for basic lithium materials is continuously rising [3] - Global lithium demand is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, approaching a supply-demand balance [3] - Predictions indicate that if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, lithium prices could potentially rise to 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [3] Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - CITIC Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and the potential for significant production growth in the coming years [4] - Companies with high resource self-sufficiency are expected to have stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The report suggests that as lithium prices stabilize, companies with substantial production capacity growth will be favored [4] Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium is positioned as a key player in the metal lithium market, with a production capacity of 600 tons and an additional 1,000 tons under construction [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and is collaborating with several leading companies to ensure stable supply [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state battery technology, has successfully mass-produced batteries with energy densities reaching 400 Wh/kg and is advancing in solid-state battery development [6]