1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price may be supported in the short - term due to strong demand and tight supply, with social inventory continuously decreasing but at a slower pace. The macro situation of the US - Iran conflict also creates upward pressure on prices due to capital hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 163,000 yuan, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 159,500 yuan, a decrease of 1,500 yuan [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2604, 2605, 2606, 2607, and 2608 are 158,040 yuan (-7.05%), 157,200 yuan (-7.97%), 157,000 yuan (-8.07%), 157,400 yuan (-8.01%), and 157,240 yuan (-8.15%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,313 yuan, with no change [1] - The average prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are 3,575 yuan, 5,225 yuan, 13,750 yuan, and 15,000 yuan respectively [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 56,940 yuan, a decrease of 360 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 213,600 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 186,750 yuan, a decrease of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 189,000 yuan, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 5,800 yuan, an increase of 12,920 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 840 yuan, an increase of 2,400 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1,040 yuan, an increase of 2,120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,332 tons, an increase of 724 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,657 tons, an increase of 552 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,500 tons, a decrease of 660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,318 tons, a decrease of 19,746 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 164,417 yuan, and the profit is - 3,567 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 155,467 yuan, and the profit is 1,803 yuan [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to introduce a subsidy policy for scrapping old cars and purchasing new electric vehicles during the Delhi budget meeting next week to promote electrification and reduce the number of old, high - emission vehicles [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is increasing and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 157,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 129,844 hands, a decrease of 6,862 hands; the position of the main contract is 217,916 hands, a decrease of 19,845 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,280 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 hands/ton, a decrease of 19,746 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 5,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,920 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,420 US dollars/ton, an increase of 45 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 15,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 5,225 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, a decrease of 26,400 MWh; the monthly开工率 of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, a decrease of 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 54,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 106,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 198,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the monthly开工率 of ternary cathode materials is 45%, a decrease of 5%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 59,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan; the monthly开工率 of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, an increase of 1%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, a decrease of 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, a decrease of 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, an increase of 0.90%; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, a decrease of 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, a decrease of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, an increase of 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China to comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [2] - Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, said that due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of cars was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% from January [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, promote the reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and implement a quality - improvement and people - benefiting action for service consumption [2] 3.7 Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resources are near a tight balance. With the expansion of the demand base, the available inventory days will show a downward trend, and the lithium price center should rise marginally [105][116]. - In Q2 2026, both supply and demand of lithium carbonate will increase. It is still expected to reduce inventory, but the reduction amplitude may decline compared to Q1. In Q3, if the supply from Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo resumes, inventory may accumulate, but inventory reduction is expected again at the end of the year due to export rush [105][116]. - The price of lithium carbonate in Q2 2026 may fluctuate widely between 125,000 - 250,000 yuan/ton, with a center around 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [116]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q4 2025, the explosion of energy - storage demand and the less - than - expected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo drove the rapid increase of lithium carbonate prices. In Q1 2026, the market continued to rise sharply and then entered a wide - range shock [7]. - In early and mid - January 2026, due to multiple factors such as Trump's attack on Venezuela, cathode material manufacturers' joint production cut to support prices, the implementation of the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, and the resurgence of the Jiangxi mining license issue, the market price soared from 125,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 189,000 yuan/ton, a 51% increase [7]. - From mid - to late January to early February 2026, due to exchange macro - regulation and Trump's nomination of Wash, which triggered concerns about balance - sheet reduction, the market price dropped to a minimum of 124,000 yuan/ton by early February, a 34% decline [7]. - After the Spring Festival to late February 2026, downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, and SMM inventory decreased significantly for several consecutive weeks. On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore exports, and the next day the market price jumped up, reaching a maximum of 188,000 yuan/ton, with a 52% increase in this stage [7]. - Since late February 2026, after the US - Israel's strike on Iran on February 28th and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the non - ferrous metals sector fell collectively. Subsequently, the market price fluctuated widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the continuous postponement of Zimbabwe's resumption time has again raised market concerns about supply [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Global Lithium Resource Production - In 2025, the global lithium resource production was about 1.675 million tons LCE. In 2026, it is expected to be about 2.207 million tons LCE, with an increase of 532,000 tons [8][9]. - In Q1 - Q4 2026, the global lithium resource production is expected to be 478,000 tons, 527,000 tons, 590,000 tons, and 613,000 tons LCE respectively [8]. 3.2.2 Regional Supply - **Australia**: The annual production of Australian mines will increase by 60,000 tons to 520,000 tons LCE. Some mines have adjusted their production guidance upwards, while some mines are currently shut down or plan to restart [8][10][12]. - **America**: The annual production of American spodumene will increase by 11,000 tons to 84,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of American salt lakes will increase by 84,000 tons to 510,000 tons LCE [8][9][15]. - **Africa**: The annual production in Africa will increase by 140,000 tons to 380,000 tons LCE. The main increments come from pre - built mines, and some new mines are planned to be put into production [8][9][16]. - **China**: The annual production of Chinese spodumene will increase by 55,000 tons to 132,000 tons LCE, the annual production of Chinese salt lakes will increase by 100,000 tons to 260,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of Chinese mica will increase by 50,000 tons to 195,000 tons LCE [8][9][24]. 3.2.3 Supply Disruptions - On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports. It is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons LCE, and the resumption time is still to be determined [22]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - **China**: In 2025, the domestic sales of Chinese passenger cars were 12.996 million, with a penetration rate of 54%. In 2026, it is expected to be 13.37 million, with a penetration rate peak of 65%. The domestic sales of Chinese commercial vehicles were 863,100 in 2025, and it is expected to be 1.232 million in 2026, with a penetration rate peak of 47% [42][46]. - **Europe**: It is expected that the high - growth trend in 2026 will continue, with a year - on - year increase of 30% to 5.27 million vehicles [54]. - **North America**: It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will decline by 10% to 1.57 million vehicles in 2026 [55]. 3.3.2 Energy - Storage Market - **China**: In 2024 - 2025, the winning bids for new energy storage in China were 171 GWh and 420 GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 52% and 145%. In 2025, the new installed capacity was 197 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 84%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [68]. - **USA**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US was 50.99 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected to increase by 27% and 3% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. - **Europe**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of electrical energy storage in Europe was 27 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 45%. It is expected to increase by 46% and 42% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. 3.3.3 Cathode Material and Cell Market - In January - February 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 745,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; the production of ternary cathode materials was 152,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48% [86]. - In January - February 2026, the production of power cells was 222 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 31%; the production of energy - storage cells was 119 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 91% [86]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Overseas**: The inventory days of Australian mines have dropped to about 1 month [91]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of February, the lithium ore inventory of domestic sample lithium salt plants was 114,000 tons LCE, with inventory days of 1.4 months, and the mine inventory was only 8,000 tons LCE. The inventory of domestic spodumene is about 140,000 tons LCE, and the inventory days have dropped to about 2 months [91]. - **Market Inventory**: The overall/upstream/downstream/mid - stream SMM inventory as of March 26th was 99,000/17,000/46,000/36,000 tons respectively, with inventory days of 27.9/4.9/13.1/10 days respectively. There is also off - balance - sheet inventory, but its magnitude has a large variance [92]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - For new energy vehicle enterprises, when the lithium carbonate price rises to 206,800 yuan/ton, the net profit of leading new energy vehicle enterprises will reach zero. High costs may lead to negative demand feedback in the long run [111][112]. - For the energy - storage market, after the implementation of the capacity - price mechanism policy, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage can reach 7.85%. If the energy storage only needs to meet the minimum rate of return of 6.5%, the acceptable increase in the cell price is 0.05 yuan/Wh, and the acceptable increase in the lithium carbonate price is 100,000 yuan/ton [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market is in a high - level volatile pattern, and the strategy is mainly to buy on dips [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of the 2605 and 2607 contracts are 171,620 and 171,700 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of the 2605 contract decreased compared to previous periods, while the 2607 contract's open interest increased [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2605 contract is - 7,120, and between spot and 2607 contract is - 7,200. The basis between 2605 and 2607 contracts is - 80 [2]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other products have different degrees of changes compared to previous periods. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 164,500, up 6,500 compared to T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Germany's Federal Government has passed the "2026 Climate Protection Plan", which will add 8 billion euros in the next 4 years. It aims to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target through measures such as expanding wind power installation and increasing new - energy vehicle subsidies, and is expected to reduce over 25 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 [3]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization has issued a new rule that each civil aviation passenger can carry a maximum of two power banks and cannot charge them during the flight, aiming to enhance passenger and airline safety [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,814 tons, a 2.59% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is forecasted to be 106,390 tons, a 28.04% increase. February's import volume was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's is predicted to be 26,000 tons, a 19.27% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 107,734 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,992 tons, a 3.08% increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased daily, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 159,158 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 3,183 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 151,428 yuan/ton, a 3.96% daily increase, with a profit of 1,295 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling end is generally higher than that on the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [9][10]. - Market outlook: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 164,220 - 174,540. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, or maintenance plans and the start time of industry clearance [9][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand: Supply is increasing, and demand shows a certain upward trend in inventory. The overall supply - demand relationship is in a state of tight balance [8][9]. - Cost and profit: The cost of lithium spodumene has increased, resulting in a loss, while the cost of lithium mica has also increased, but there is still a profit. The cost on the salt lake end is low, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - Market sentiment: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the production reduction plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market data**: The closing prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of 01 lithium carbonate futures was 169,380 yuan/ton, a 7.00% increase from the previous value. The price of lithium spodumene (6%) was 2,230 US dollars/ton, a 0.90% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 0.96% higher than the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 15.13%. The production of various sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake all decreased to varying degrees [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and other products decreased. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 12.20%. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% [19]. - **Inventory data**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The inventory of downstream enterprises was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average [10][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures is under pressure from macro hedging and slower inventory depletion, but is supported by demand. Due to the unclear macro situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 158,000 with a rise of 1,500; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 155,000 with a rise of 1,500 [1] - Futures contracts of lithium carbonate: Li2604 has a closing price of 167,480 with a 6.55% increase; Li2605 has a closing price of 168,440 with a 6.12% increase; Li2606 has a closing price of 168,440 with a 6.23% increase; Li2607 has a closing price of 168,400 with a 6.22% increase; Li2608 has a closing price of 168,920 with a 6.83% increase [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 2,230 with a rise of 20 [1] - Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 3,475 with a rise of 150; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 5,050 with a rise of 250; petalite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) has a price of 13,275 with a rise of 45; petalite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) has a price of 14,500 with a rise of 500 [2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) has an average price of 55,475 with a rise of 365; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) has an average price of 211,150 with a rise of 400; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 184,250 with a rise of 500; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) has an average price of 186,300 with a rise of 400 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 with no change; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 10,440 with a change of - 9,740; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 960 with a change of - 1,860; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 960 with a change of - 2,240 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,489 with an increase of 616; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,332 with an increase of 724; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,657 with an increase of 552; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,500 with a decrease of 660; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 30,111 with a decrease of 640 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 159,158, and the profit is - 3,183; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 151,428, and the profit is 1,295 [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to announce a policy during the Delhi budget meeting next week to provide cash subsidies for individuals who scrap locally registered BS - IV and earlier standard fuel vehicles and purchase electric vehicles to accelerate the electrification transformation and reduce the number of old high - emission vehicles [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the uncertainty in lithium supply is increasing, and lithium prices are expected to continue rising [3] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain under pressure due to stagflation risks, with short-term fluctuations expected [5] - Aluminum prices are projected to maintain high volatility due to overseas supply disruptions and stagflation trading [5] - The lithium market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with demand expected to grow, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, driven by downstream restocking [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown resilience, with the overall performance of the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.87 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.04, indicating a 2.08 increase, while the PB_LF is 3.59, reflecting a 0.26 increase [20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.11%, while Shanghai copper prices increased by 1.26% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant reduction, with a 12.64% decrease in Shanghai copper inventory [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices fell by 1.43%, while Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly by 0.08% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing pressure from increasing domestic inventory and potential supply expansions [5] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 6.04% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 8.41% to 2,230 USD/ton [69] - The lithium supply chain is experiencing disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe and Australia, which may impact future supply [5] Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.38% to 26.25 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 2.06% to 427,000 CNY/ton [84] - Cobalt supply is expected to improve as export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are set to be lifted [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is under pressure from macro - hedging and slow inventory reduction, but is supported by demand. Due to the unclear macro situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 156,500 yuan, with a change of 4,000 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 153,500 yuan, with a change of 4,000 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of different lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: for lithium carbonate 2604, the closing price is 158,100 yuan, with a 0.11% increase; for lithium carbonate 2605, the closing price is 157,200 yuan, with a 0.64% decrease; for lithium carbonate 2606, the closing price is 156,820 yuan, with a 0.81% decrease; for lithium carbonate 2607, the closing price is 157,160 yuan, with a 0.63% decrease; for lithium carbonate 2608, the closing price is 157,520 yuan, with a 0.98% decrease [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,210 yuan, with a change of 67 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,325 yuan, with a change of 150 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,800 yuan, with a change of 200 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 12,800 yuan, with a change of 475 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,000 yuan, with a change of 600 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 55,110 yuan, with a change of 970 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 210,750 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,750 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 185,900 yuan, with a change of 500 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 700 yuan, with a change of 5,920 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 900 yuan, with a change of 1,280 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1,280 yuan, with a change of 1,120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 99,489 tons, with a change of 616 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 17,332 tons, with a change of 724 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 46,657 tons, with a change of 552 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 35,500 tons, with a change of - 660 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 30,751 tons, with a change of - 709 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 157,748 yuan, and the profit is - 3,259 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 145,659 yuan, and the profit is 5,594 yuan [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to announce a new policy during the Delhi budget meeting next week, providing cash subsidies to individuals who scrap locally registered pre - BS IV (National IV) fuel vehicles and purchase electric vehicles to accelerate the electrification transformation and reduce the number of old, high - emission vehicles [3] Market Environment - Macroscopically, the situation between the US and Iran persists, and funds' hedging behavior creates upward pressure. Fundamentally, the new - energy vehicle data in February was lower than expected, but the energy - storage demand remains strong [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate futures is under pressure from macro hedging and the slowdown of inventory reduction, but is supported by demand. Due to the unclear macro situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 152,500 with a rise of 5,000; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 149,500 with a rise of 5,000 [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2604 closes at 158,740 with a 3.96% increase; 2605 closes at 159,120 with a 4.34% increase; 2606 closes at 158,580 with a 4.6% increase; 2607 closes at 158,660 with a 4.55% increase; 2608 closes at 159,780 with a 4.84% increase [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 2,143 with a rise of 71 (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 3,175 with a rise of 110; (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,600 with a rise of 135 [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) average price is 12,325; (Li20: 7% - 8%) average price is 13,400 with a rise of 475 [2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 54,140 with a rise of 1,215 [2] - Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) average price is 210,250 with a rise of 1,500 [2] - Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 183,250 with a rise of 2,000 [2] - Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 185,400 with a rise of 1,950 [2] Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,000 [2] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6,620 with a change of - 1,180 [2] - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 380 with a change of 120; between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 160 with a change of - 320 [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 98,873 with a decrease of 86 [2] - Smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 16,608 with an increase of 316 [2] - Downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,105 with an increase of 458 [2] - Other inventory (weekly, tons) is 36,160 with a decrease of 860 [2] - Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 31,460 with a decrease of 618 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 148,927, and the profit is 1,602 [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 141,044, and the profit is 6,289 [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to introduce a subsidy policy for scrapping old cars and purchasing new electric vehicles during the Delhi budget meeting next week to accelerate the electrification transformation and reduce the number of old high - emission vehicles [3] - Macroscopically, the situation between the US and Iran persists, and capital hedging creates upward pressure. Fundamentally, the new energy vehicle data in February was lower than expected, but the energy storage demand remains strong [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 154,160 - 164,600. The overall situation is a tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The supply side is expected to increase in the next month, while the demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The cost - side 6% concentrate CIF price has a daily - on - daily increase, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened [10][11][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase [7] - **Basis**: Bearish. On March 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - **Disk**: Neutral. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [11] - **Main Position**: Bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [11] - **Expectation**: On the supply side, the lithium carbonate production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. On the demand side, the demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. On the cost side, the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily - on - week increase, lower than the historical average [11] - **Liberal Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [12] - **Bearish Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [13] - **Main Logic**: Tight supply - demand balance with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. The monthly production in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in February was 26,426.79 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - **Demand - side Data**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises last week was 106,718 tons, a 0.89% week - on - week increase, and the weekly inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,425 tons, a 2.25% week - on - week increase. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron was 300,250 tons, a 7.67% month - on - month decrease; the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron - lithium was 348,200 tons, a 12.20% month - on - month decrease [7][20] - **Inventory Data**: The smelter inventory was 16,608 tons, a 1.94% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 46,105 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 36,160 tons, a 2.32% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,873 tons, a 0.08% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average [8] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price Trend**: The price of 6% lithium ore (CIF) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical price trends [27] - **Production and Import**: The production of Chinese sample lithium - spodumene mines and the total domestic lithium - mica production are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical production trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is also presented, including imports from Australia and other countries [27] - **Self - sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of lithium - spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium - mica are presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical self - sufficiency rate trends [27] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [27] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [29] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly production and capacity utilization rates of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends. The monthly production of lithium carbonate by grade (battery - grade and industrial - grade) and by raw material (lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) is also presented [32] - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical import trends [32] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [37] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production by source (causticization and smelting) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [40] - **Export**: The monthly export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [40] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [43] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Ore**: The production cost and profit of外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%) and外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends. The processing cost composition of lithium - mica and lithium - spodumene is also presented [46] - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Recycling**: The cost and profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium battery black powder, phosphoric acid iron - lithium pole - piece black powder, ternary pole - piece black powder, and ternary battery black powder) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48] - **Other Cost and Profit**: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, the processing cost difference between lithium hydroxide coarse particles and fine particles, the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing lithium hydroxide, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical cost - profit trends [48][50][51] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical inventory trends [53] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory, is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [53] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - **Price and Production**: The price trends of different types of batteries (523 square, power - square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) are presented. The monthly production of power - cell cores (power ternary and power phosphoric acid iron - lithium) and the monthly loading volume of power batteries (phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials) are also presented [57] - **Export**: The monthly export volume of lithium batteries from 2020 to 2026 is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical export trends [57] - **Cost**: The cost trend of cell cores is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical cost trends [57] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of lithium - battery cell cores (power ternary, power phosphoric acid iron - lithium, and energy - storage batteries) and the monthly production of energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] - **Bidding and Cost**: The energy - storage system EPC bidding and the cost - price trend of 314Ah phosphoric acid iron - lithium energy - storage cell cores are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [59] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - **Capacity and Production**: The capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [62] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from February 2025 to February 2026 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [65] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of different types of ternary materials (5 - series and 6 - series) and the cost and profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68] - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production rate, capacity, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [68][71] - **Export and Import**: The monthly export and import volumes of ternary materials are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [71] 3.12 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - **Price and Cost**: The price trends of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium and the production cost of phosphoric acid iron are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72] - **Capacity and Production**: The capacity, monthly production, and monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [72][75] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium is presented in a long - term data chart, showing historical inventory trends [77] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [80] - **Penetration Rate and Inventory Index**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the retail - to - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, and the dealer inventory warning and inventory indexes are presented in long - term data charts, showing historical trends [81][84]