瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 碳酸锂市场周报 刚需采买降库放缓，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+17.69%，振幅21.15%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价143420元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色产品供给、提升绿色服务消费、 创新绿色消费模式等7方面20条具体举措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。基本面原料端，锂矿报价随着碳酸锂价格不 断走高，由于碳酸锂盘面价格较优，或存在一定套保空间，令原料成交情况有所转好。供给端，由于盘面套保空间存 在，冶炼厂参与后或将保持较为积极的生产状态，国内供给量保持小幅提升态势。需求端，下游电池正极材料厂对当 下高价锂心里接受度普遍较低，采购策略多以刚需采买为主，故市场观望情绪仍较浓，相对谨慎。整体来看，碳酸锂 基本面或处于供给小增、需求谨慎的阶段，产业库存较上周基本持 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年01月07日 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 142300 | 4360 | 3.16% | 23480 | 19.76% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 420407 | 116170 | 38.18% | -268357 | -38.96% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 506520 | -28479 | -5.32% | -5825 | -1.14% ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - dominated. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 123,900 - 130,120 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, equal to the historical average. In December 2025, the output was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.46% [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 99,894 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,581 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.22%. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 118,137 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - day flat rate, and the production income is 696 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 116,523 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.71%, and the production income is - 1,177 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. - **Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis on January 5 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 119,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: On the supply side, the monthly total output of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.64% month - on - month. On the demand side, the monthly output of some downstream products decreased, but the monthly total battery loading volume of power batteries increased by 11.18% month - on - month [18].

商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支 | | | | | 撑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 119,540 | 1,560 | 1,100 | 20,800 | 24,900 | 45,500 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 9,368 | -9,570 | -13,025 | -14,434 | -133,899 | -72,552 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 15 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22161吨，环比增长0.52%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为100885吨，环比减少1.35%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18002 吨，环比减少0.49%。 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月29日 目 录 1 每日观点 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025年11月碳 酸锂进口量为22055实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加22.42%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强 化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 122,760 | 4,320 | 15,940 | 28,680 | 32,280 | 49,880 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 30,388 | 7,995 | -25,691 | -27,642 | -424,224 | -73,785 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 38, ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 陈宇森 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2025/12/24 贵金属与新能源研究中心 据来源:SMM,公十新闻登坦 锂化合物 120000 平均价 SMM电池级碳酸锂 99500 500 2500 SMM工业级碳酸锂 96850 500 2000 80000 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 碳酸锂2601 118440 5. 96% 60000 碳酸锂2602 118600 5.57% 40000 碳酸锂2603 5.9% 118760 碳酸锂2604 120000 5. 37% 500 碳酸锂2605 120360 5.67% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1404 26 (Li20:5 5%-6%) | | 锂云母 | 2025 | 125 | 申硕-工使价差 元/吨 | - 【《级碳酸锂-平均价 - 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | 锂云母 ...

碳酸锂：下游材料存涨价预期，偏强震荡 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 118,440 | 5,960 | 19,700 | 27,440 | 27,420 | 47,180 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 22,393 | -9,175 | -1,409 | -32,991 | -1,115,431 | -46,896 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 45,342 | -5,183 | -47,315 | -105,318 | -365,985 | -127,138 | | | 盘面 | ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 120,360.00 | | +5980.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,692.00 | +5257.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） 671,573.00 | | -316.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,560.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） 16,651.00 | | +240.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） 99,500.00 | | +500.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 96,850.00 | +500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） -20,860.00 | | -5480.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平 ...

2025 年 12 月 23 日 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 商 品 研 究 究 所 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 112,480 | 2,760 | 13,380 | 19,420 | 13,500 | 41,200 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 31,568 | -2,326 | -2,383 | -62,492 | -1,564,078 | -53,382 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 50,525 | -7,309 | -47,77 ...