Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, Shanghai zinc faces upward pressure. The domestic zinc market is in a state of weak supply and demand, but the significant decline in downstream demand has led to a substantial accumulation of zinc inventories. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The future trend depends on the resumption of work in downstream terminals. If downstream demand recovers rapidly in March, it may drive inventory reduction and provide upward momentum for zinc prices; otherwise, high inventories will suppress the upward space of prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, cumulative imports reached 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. In March 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,300 - 1,700 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee was $31.5 per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of $18.42. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate spot processing fee remained at 1,500 - 1,700 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while the imported zinc concentrate spot processing fee was $24.35 per dry ton, a weekly decrease of $0.53 [2]. - **Supply**: In January 2026, the monthly output of refined zinc was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, slightly lower than expected. In February, due to the reduction in the number of days and some smelters' Spring Festival shutdowns for maintenance, the output is expected to fall by 8.78% or 49,200 tons to 511,400 tons. Before the Spring Festival, winter stockpiling was basically completed, but the overall inventory can only meet about 22 - 23 days of production needs, far lower than the same period in previous years. The import of ore is limited due to deepening losses, and enterprises mainly rely on domestic ore for production. Currently, the smelting profit remains in a loss state, but with the support of high sulfuric acid prices, there is no significant pressure on the supply side to cut production substantially. In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. In December, the export of refined zinc was 27,200 tons, resulting in a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London price ratio has weakened significantly, the export profit window for refined zinc has closed, and the import loss has widened [3]. - **Consumption**: In the first week after the Spring Festival, due to the low start - up rate of terminal real estate and infrastructure projects, enterprises' finished product inventories have accumulated. The market mainly focuses on long - term order pick - up, and new order transactions are limited. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises remains at a low level. The spot market has abundant supplies, but downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, and the purchasing sentiment is weak, resulting in poor spot transactions. In some areas, the discount has even widened. It is expected that the demand of zinc downstream enterprises will not recover intensively until after the Lantern Festival [3]. Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of February 25, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,550 yuan per ton. This week, the spot price opened high and then gradually declined. The basis discount of Yangtze River spot 0 zinc to the main contract widened to - 95 yuan. LME zinc spot remained at a discount of - $29.63 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 20, the LME inventory was 101,500 tons, showing a slight decline and currently lower than the average level in recent years. In China, the decline in zinc inventory has stopped. As of February 24, the domestic social inventory was 174,300 tons. After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased significantly and is at the highest level in the past four years. As of February 13, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,025 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,336 tons [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in June, in line with market expectations. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. The new production capacity has been gradually released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. The zinc price is running weakly, downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, resulting in an increase in domestic social inventory and a continuous decrease in overseas inventory. Technically, the short - selling force has weakened, and the 21,800 mark is being tested, with attention paid to the MA10 pressure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [2][6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of 0.14% and an amplitude of 2.15%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton. The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [6][5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 21,845 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.14% from June 13, 2025. As of June 19, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,646.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars/ton or 0.09% from June 13, 2025 [11]. - **Net Position and Holding Volume**: As of June 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 10,776 lots, a decrease of 2,187 lots from June 6, 2025. As of June 20, 2025, the holding volume of Shanghai zinc was 259,316 lots, a decrease of 40,735 lots or 13.58% from June 13, 2025 [13]. - **Price Spreads**: As of June 20, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from June 13, 2025. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton from June 13, 2025 [19]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton or 0.63% from June 13, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week. As of June 19, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 26.89 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.47 US dollars/ton from June 12, 2025 [26]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 20, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 126,225 tons, a decrease of 4,775 tons or 3.65% from June 13, 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 42,864 tons, a decrease of 2,602 tons or 5.72% from last week. As of June 19, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 60,600 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons or 7.64% from June 12, 2025 [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The monthly import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 494,662.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63% [32]. - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.59 tons or 0.52%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23,800 tons or 2.17%. The global refined zinc surplus was 16,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 33,900 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 22,700 tons in April 2024. In May 2025, the zinc output in China was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [35][40][43]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to April 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 683,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.11%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [46][47]. - **Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 402.3241 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 56.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [50][51]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [57]. - **Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [59][60]. - **Automobiles**: In May 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the production volume was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [64].