交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25030，基差+515；偏多。 3、库存：2月2日LME锌库存较上日减少900吨至109100吨，2月2日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加299吨至28767吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下, ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View - The absolute price of zinc continues to decline, and the spot market is difficult to improve. Although the spot discount remains stable, the trading is still sluggish. The transportation in the Tianjin market is affected by the parade and the SCO meeting, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is relatively good. The import TC is still rising, the smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The smelting profit of the industry remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains. The current pressure on the supply side and the expected future pressure remain unchanged. The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face greater pressure [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$8.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -100 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -85 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is -110 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of -60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On August 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton, closed at 22,205 yuan/ton, -190 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,478 lots, and the open interest was 105,576 lots. The highest price was 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,180 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons compared with the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 72,200 tons, a change of -3,650 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: Import TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory with an upward trend [4] - **Smelting**: The industry smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with unchanged supply - side pressure [4] - **Consumption**: The consumption is strong in the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season, but the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, the zinc price will face pressure [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Zinc price may be relatively weak when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]