Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2. Report's Core View - The social inventory of zinc ingots is unlikely to continue accumulating and may even experience destocking, with strong consumption despite high domestic supply [5]. - The expected growth rate of supply is declining, and if the TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [5]. - LME warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the spot premium is still high, the export window remains open, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been alleviated [5]. - Micro - data is gradually shifting from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains positive [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $98.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton with a change of 0 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,605 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,028 lots, and the open interest was 113,005 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,535 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are decreasing, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for ore procurement is strong, leading to a significant decline in domestic and overseas ore TC and squeezing smelting profits [5]. - The expected year - on - year growth rate of supply in November is expected to fall below 20%, and the daily average output is decreasing month - on - month [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]