新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 消费逐步向淡季转换 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-29.14美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化170元/吨至23260元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日200元/吨至23220元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至23170元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-24沪锌主力合约开于23290元/吨，收于23230元/吨，较前一交易日215元/吨，全天交易日成交 171518手，全天交易日持仓95197手，日内价格最高点达到23320元/吨，最低点达到23045元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.45万吨，较上期变化0.23万吨。截止2025-12-24，LME 锌库存为106875吨，较上一交易日变化7900吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增量 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but if the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains export enthusiasm, and the overseas inventory is difficult to show a trend increase. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains positive, but the sustainability of zinc consumption needs to be tested [4]. 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $132.96/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,490 yuan/ton, closed at 22,365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,090 lots, and the open interest was 119,758 lots. The highest price was 22,540 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,325 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,500 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 300 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The market is currently facing supply pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in supply in June and an expected high output of 590,000 tons in July. Social inventories are increasing slightly, and there may be a negative feedback from invisible inventories. After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined. After the reaction of macro - positive factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back. Attention should be paid to changes in social inventories [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.99/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,430 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 5 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,370 yuan/ton, and its premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 110 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, and its premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,320 yuan/ton and closed at 22,325 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 132,674 lots, an increase of 4,654 lots, and the position was 127,934 lots, a decrease of 1,829 lots. The highest price was 22,400 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 82,400 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 112,675 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The strong performance of the futures market has dampened the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot premium has mainly declined. The supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback from invisible inventories may occur. The increase in smelting profit has further stimulated the smelting enthusiasm, and the supply pressure persists. After the absolute price increase, the spot market trading has become more sluggish, and the spot premium has quickly declined [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5].