Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market discount is still slightly weakening, and the market trading enthusiasm is poor. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply-side incremental expectation remains unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.23/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,485 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,765 lots, and the open interest was 93,386 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,425 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The spot market discount is slightly weakening, and trading enthusiasm is low. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply - side pressure is continuously prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation trend may have formed. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may drive the zinc price to return, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.88 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,090 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 120 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton and closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,513 lots, a decrease of 4,004 lots. The open interest was 114,762 lots, a decrease of 4,112 lots. The highest price was 22,175 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,980 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. As of July 9, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The upward movement of the futures market dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and the spot premium further declined [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The output in July is expected to be as high as 590,000 tons, and the supply pressure remains [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has expanded, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may have occurred [4] - **Cost**: The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, the smelting enthusiasm has been further enhanced, and the supply pressure still exists [4]