锗业务放量
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中矿资源(002738):锂涨价贡献弹性,锗业务即将放量
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-28 09:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price increase of lithium contributes to profit elasticity, and the germanium business is expected to ramp up production soon [1] - The company has experienced a significant increase in sales volume and profitability due to rising lithium prices, with expectations for improved profit margins in 2026 [7] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on cesium and rubidium, while profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 62.6% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 23.2%, with a net profit margin of 7.4% [7] - The company expects to achieve a total sales volume of approximately 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) for the year, slightly up year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to a net profit of 450 million yuan, with subsequent years projected at 1.41 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.30 billion yuan for 2027 [1][7] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 86x for 2025, 27x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [1][7] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance in the lithium industry in 2026, potentially leading to profits of 600-800 million yuan from lithium operations [7]