Group 1 - UBS reported that a significant and prolonged supply disruption in China's lithium industry could impact up to 15% of global lithium production, leading to a surge in stock prices for major lithium producers, including Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US), which rose by 7.5% [1] - Other lithium producers also experienced stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 11.4%, Lithium Americas (LAC.US) up 3.6%, and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.US) up 2.8% [1] - UBS analysts forecast that lithium spodumene prices will increase by at least 9% and potentially up to 32% between 2025 and 2028, while lithium chemical product prices are expected to rise between 4% and 17% [1] Group 2 - UBS upgraded Albemarle's rating from "Sell" to "Neutral" and set a target price of $89, indicating that potential future actions in China's lithium supply chain could challenge previous views of long-term low-price pressure on Albemarle [2] - The report highlighted several key events impacting lithium supply, including the suspension of production by Zangge Mining on July 14, the shutdown of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL on August 10, and potential production risks for seven lithium mica mines in Yichun after September 30 [1]

大摩指出，数据显示该矿产能约占公司总需求30%，但该矿此前作为全球锂产能的调节供应，过去数个 季度曾因利用率低迷而仅处于盈亏平衡或轻微亏损状态。考虑到宁德时代去年第三季已计提逾30亿元人 民币资产减值损失，以反映锂价疲弱情况，大摩预期宜春锂矿停产或推动锂价上涨，反而有利宁德时代 现有原材料库存的价值提升。 当日早盘，宁德时代股价最大跌幅约2.08%，后有所拉升。截至发稿，股价报262.76元，微跌0.34%。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 8月12日早间，摩根士丹利（大摩）、中信证券等机构发布研报称，宁德时代旗下年产10万吨碳酸锂当 量的宜春枧下窝锂矿的采矿许可证已到期，目前生产已暂停。 中信证券研报指出，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿已停产，停产时间至少三个月。据测算，该事件将致使国内锂 供应量每月减少 8300 吨，占国内锂月度供应的 8%，月度供需平衡转为短缺，进而推动锂价大幅上 涨。此外，宜春部分锂矿仍存在合规性风险，其产能合计达 18.5 万吨 LCE / 年，占全球锂供应的 12.5%，若全部停产，或导致全球锂供应短缺。目前，国内锂电需求维持旺盛，海外锂盐进口量减少， 预计锂价仍将保持涨势。 ...

大摩指，数据显示该矿产能约占公司总需求30%，但该矿此前作为全球锂产能的调节供应，过去数个季 度曾因利用率低迷而仅处于盈亏平衡或轻微亏损状态。考虑到宁德时代去年第三季已计提逾30亿元人民 币资产减值损失，以反映锂价疲弱情况，大摩预期宜春锂矿停产或推动锂价上涨，反而有利宁德时代现 有原材料库存的价值提升。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，据报，宁德时代(03750)旗下年产10万吨碳酸锂当量的宜春 枧下窝锂矿的采矿许可证已到期，目前生产已暂停。该行看好凭借规模优势，宁德时代的合约锂价仍较 中小型电池厂商更具竞争力，加上成本上涨可转嫁予汽车制造商，仍给予"增持"评级，目标价465港 元。 ...

大摩预期宜春锂矿停产或推动锂价上涨，反而有利宁德时代现有原材料库存的价值提升，看好凭借规模 优势，宁德时代的合约锂价仍较中小型电池厂商更具竞争力，加上成本上涨可转嫁予汽车制造商，仍给 予"增持"评级，目标价465港元。 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，宁德时代旗下年产10万吨碳酸锂当量的宜春枧下窝锂矿的采矿许可证已到 期，目前生产已暂停。大摩指，资料显示该矿产能约占公司总需求30%，但该矿此前作为全球锂产能的 调节供应，过去数个季度曾因利用率低迷而仅处于盈亏平衡或轻微亏损状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiments related to "anti-involution" and supply concerns stemming from compliance issues with mining permits in Jiangxi, particularly with a major mine's permit expiring on August 9 [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of the week of August 4-8, lithium carbonate futures rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 2.9% to 777 USD/ton, and lithium mica rose by 5.3% to 1,800 yuan/ton [2][3] Supply Concerns - The expiration of a mining permit for a major mine in Jiangxi, which has a monthly production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons of LCE, raises concerns about supply tightness, especially with the upcoming traditional stocking season [2][3] - There are seven other major lithium mines in Jiangxi facing permit issues, which could lead to significant supply constraints if all were to halt production [2][3] Demand Outlook - The demand from the downstream battery sector has exceeded expectations, with lithium battery production in July reaching 144 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37% [3] - Cumulative production from January to July was 944 GWh, up 50% year-on-year, indicating strong demand that may support lithium price resilience [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium businesses are seen as having a competitive advantage, with a recommendation for Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) and related companies including Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), and Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) [4]

智通财经获悉，锂业股再度活跃，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨3.62%，报41.2港元；赣锋锂业(01772) 涨1.75%，报27.92港元。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，8月8日，碳酸锂期货再度走高，主力LC2511合约现涨幅扩大逾5%，报75340元/吨。银河期 货认为，盘面增仓大涨反映市场相信江西矿山停产概率增加，资金押注基本面阶段性短缺。锂价短期向 上弹性更高，关注矿证审批工作的结论。碳酸锂供应整体维持高位，需求表现稳中有升，三季度呈现旺 季特征，紧平衡对碳酸锂盘面有支撑。 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks are becoming active again, with Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) rising by 3.62% to HKD 41.2 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) increasing by 1.75% to HKD 27.92 [1] - On August 8, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main LC2511 contract increasing by over 5% to CNY 75,340 per ton [1] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the significant increase in open interest reflects market belief in a higher probability of production halts in Jiangxi, leading to a speculative bet on a temporary supply shortage [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of lithium carbonate remains high, while demand shows steady growth, indicating a peak season characteristic in the third quarter [1] - The tight balance in the lithium carbonate market provides support for the futures prices [1]

消息面上，8月8日，碳酸锂期货再度走高，主力LC2511合约现涨幅扩大逾5%，报75340元/吨。银河期 货认为，盘面增仓大涨反映市场相信江西矿山停产概率增加，资金押注基本面阶段性短缺。锂价短期向 上弹性更高，关注矿证审批工作的结论。碳酸锂供应整体维持高位，需求表现稳中有升，三季度呈现旺 季特征，紧平衡对碳酸锂盘面有支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，锂业股再度活跃，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨3.62%，报41.2港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨1.75%，报27.92港元。 ...