天齐锂业（09696）、赣锋锂业（01772）、龙蟠科技(02465) 天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪在2025年第二届中国国际锂业大会上表示，受益于可再生能源并网需求、商用重 卡等电动化设备增速迅猛，储能领域和动力电池对基础锂材料的需求持续上涨，2026年全球锂需求量预 计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量，基本达到供需平衡。随着锂行业供需格局的改善，产业链将破除同质化 竞争，企业将迎来更大的发展空间。 中信证券研报称，2025Q3海外锂矿产量环比持平，反映出在前三季度锂价低迷背景下，海外矿企增产 积极性减弱。尽管锂价在2025Q3回暖，但海外矿企反馈缓慢。南美盐湖提锂企业2025Q3经营显著改 善，且对2025Q4展望保持乐观。我们预计在储能电池需求持续强劲的拉动下，锂产业链有望延续去库 态势，锂价或超预期上涨，我们上调锂价预测区间上限至12万元/吨，建议关注在锂价反弹过程中的低 成本标的以及具有资源端增产预期的公司。 锂矿股相关港股： 值得一提的是，此前赣锋锂业董事长李良彬预测，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，需求达到190万吨， 同时供应能力经过评估后会增长25万吨左右，供需基本平衡，碳酸锂价格有探涨空间。如果明年需 ...

智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪在2025年第二届中国国际锂业大会上表示，受益于可再生能 源并网需求、商用重卡等电动化设备增速迅猛，储能领域和动力电池对基础锂材料的需求持续上涨， 2026年全球锂需求量预计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量，基本达到供需平衡。随着锂行业供需格局的改 善，产业链将破除同质化竞争，企业将迎来更大的发展空间。 锂矿股相关港股： 天齐锂业（09696）、赣锋锂业（01772）、龙蟠科技(02465) 值得一提的是，此前赣锋锂业董事长李良彬预测，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，需求达到190万吨， 同时供应能力经过评估后会增长25万吨左右，供需基本平衡，碳酸锂价格有探涨空间。如果明年需求增 速超过30%，甚至达到40%，短期内供应无法平衡，价格可能会突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨。 中信证券研报称，2025Q3海外锂矿产量环比持平，反映出在前三季度锂价低迷背景下，海外矿企增产 积极性减弱。尽管锂价在2025Q3回暖，但海外矿企反馈缓慢。南美盐湖提锂企业2025Q3经营显著改 善，且对2025Q4展望保持乐观。我们预计在储能电池需求持续强劲的拉动下，锂产业链有望延续去库 态势，锂价或 ...

中信证券研报称，2025Q3海外锂矿产量环比持平，反映出在前三季度锂价低迷背景下，海外矿企增产 积极性减弱。尽管锂价在2025Q3回暖，但海外矿企反馈缓慢。南美盐湖提锂企业2025Q3经营显著改 善，且对2025Q4展望保持乐观。我们预计在储能电池需求持续强劲的拉动下，锂产业链有望延续去库 态势，锂价或超预期上涨，我们上调锂价预测区间上限至12万元/吨，建议关注在锂价反弹过程中的低 成本标的以及具有资源端增产预期的公司。 ...

瑞穗将美国雅保的目标价从92美元上调至110美元。该行认为市场倍数较高，预计近期锂现货价格上涨 将使公司受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a net profit of 557 million yuan in Q3, marking a 364% increase year-on-year, and the company is optimistic about further improvements in Q4 [3][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 557 million yuan in Q3, the highest quarterly profit in nearly two years [3]. - The total revenue for Q3 was 6.249 billion yuan, with operating costs at 5.213 billion yuan, leading to a significant reduction in the gap between revenue and costs compared to the first half of the year [12][16]. - The fair value change turned positive, contributing 420 million yuan to profits, a turnaround from a loss of 53 million yuan in Q2, largely due to the rebound in Pilbara's stock price [5][16]. Market Conditions - The lithium market has shown signs of recovery, with domestic lithium salt futures and spot prices experiencing a phase of upward movement since October, which is expected to positively impact Ganfeng Lithium's Q4 performance [6][20]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,000 yuan/ton to approximately 79,000 yuan/ton, indicating a favorable market environment [20][21]. Strategic Investments - Ganfeng Lithium holds a 5.37% stake in Pilbara, which has been a strategic investment to secure core raw material supply, and the stock's recovery has positively influenced Ganfeng's financials [14][22]. - The company has implemented hedging strategies to manage stock price volatility, which has been effective in mitigating losses from fair value changes [14]. Future Outlook - The company is confident in achieving profitability by 2025, with expectations that the strong lithium prices will continue to support its main business operations [7][22]. - The ongoing increase in Pilbara's stock price, which has risen over 22% in October, is likely to further enhance Ganfeng's fair value change gains [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price increase of lithium contributes to profit elasticity, and the germanium business is expected to ramp up production soon [1] - The company has experienced a significant increase in sales volume and profitability due to rising lithium prices, with expectations for improved profit margins in 2026 [7] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on cesium and rubidium, while profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 62.6% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 23.2%, with a net profit margin of 7.4% [7] - The company expects to achieve a total sales volume of approximately 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) for the year, slightly up year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to a net profit of 450 million yuan, with subsequent years projected at 1.41 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.30 billion yuan for 2027 [1][7] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 86x for 2025, 27x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [1][7] - The report anticipates a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance in the lithium industry in 2026, potentially leading to profits of 600-800 million yuan from lithium operations [7]

Group 1 - UBS reported that a significant and prolonged supply disruption in China's lithium industry could impact up to 15% of global lithium production, leading to a surge in stock prices for major lithium producers, including Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US), which rose by 7.5% [1] - Other lithium producers also experienced stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 11.4%, Lithium Americas (LAC.US) up 3.6%, and Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.US) up 2.8% [1] - UBS analysts forecast that lithium spodumene prices will increase by at least 9% and potentially up to 32% between 2025 and 2028, while lithium chemical product prices are expected to rise between 4% and 17% [1] Group 2 - UBS upgraded Albemarle's rating from "Sell" to "Neutral" and set a target price of $89, indicating that potential future actions in China's lithium supply chain could challenge previous views of long-term low-price pressure on Albemarle [2] - The report highlighted several key events impacting lithium supply, including the suspension of production by Zangge Mining on July 14, the shutdown of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL on August 10, and potential production risks for seven lithium mica mines in Yichun after September 30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mining license for CATL's Yichun Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, has expired, leading to a production halt for at least three months, which will significantly impact lithium supply and prices in China [1]. Group 1: Supply Impact - The suspension of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine is expected to reduce domestic lithium supply by 8,300 tons per month, accounting for 8% of the monthly supply in China, shifting the supply-demand balance to a shortage [1]. - There are compliance risks associated with some lithium mines in Yichun, with a combined capacity of 185,000 tons LCE per year, representing 12.5% of global lithium supply. A complete shutdown could lead to a global lithium supply shortage [1]. Group 2: Price Outlook - With domestic lithium demand remaining strong and a decrease in overseas lithium salt imports, lithium prices are expected to continue rising [1]. - Morgan Stanley believes that CATL's contract lithium prices remain competitive compared to smaller battery manufacturers, and the cost increases can be passed on to automakers, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 465 [1]. Group 3: Company Performance - The Yichun mine's capacity accounts for approximately 30% of CATL's total demand, but it has previously operated at low utilization rates, resulting in breakeven or slight losses [1]. - CATL had already recognized over RMB 3 billion in asset impairment losses in the third quarter of last year due to weak lithium prices, and the suspension of the Yichun mine may lead to an increase in lithium prices, enhancing the value of CATL's existing raw material inventory [1]. Group 4: Market Reaction - On the day of the news, CATL's stock price experienced a maximum decline of approximately 2.08% before recovering slightly, closing at CNY 262.76, down 0.34% [2].

大摩指，数据显示该矿产能约占公司总需求30%，但该矿此前作为全球锂产能的调节供应，过去数个季 度曾因利用率低迷而仅处于盈亏平衡或轻微亏损状态。考虑到宁德时代去年第三季已计提逾30亿元人民 币资产减值损失，以反映锂价疲弱情况，大摩预期宜春锂矿停产或推动锂价上涨，反而有利宁德时代现 有原材料库存的价值提升。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，据报，宁德时代(03750)旗下年产10万吨碳酸锂当量的宜春 枧下窝锂矿的采矿许可证已到期，目前生产已暂停。该行看好凭借规模优势，宁德时代的合约锂价仍较 中小型电池厂商更具竞争力，加上成本上涨可转嫁予汽车制造商，仍给予"增持"评级，目标价465港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the mining license for CATL's Yichun lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, has expired, leading to a production halt. This mine accounts for approximately 30% of the company's total demand, and its previous low utilization has resulted in breakeven or slight losses in recent quarters. The suspension of the Yichun mine may drive lithium prices up, benefiting CATL's existing raw material inventory value. The company is expected to maintain competitive contract lithium prices due to its scale advantage, and cost increases can be passed on to automakers, leading to a "buy" rating with a target price of HKD 465 [1][1][1]. Group 1 - The Yichun lithium mine's mining license has expired, resulting in a production halt [1] - The mine's capacity represents about 30% of CATL's total demand [1] - The mine has previously operated at low utilization, leading to breakeven or slight losses [1] Group 2 - The suspension of the Yichun mine is expected to push lithium prices higher [1] - This price increase may enhance the value of CATL's existing raw material inventory [1] - CATL is anticipated to maintain competitive contract lithium prices compared to smaller battery manufacturers [1] Group 3 - Cost increases can be transferred to automakers, supporting CATL's pricing power [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "buy" rating for CATL with a target price of HKD 465 [1]