智通财经APP获悉，宁德时代(03750)跌近6%，截至发稿，跌5.82%，报502港元，成交额8.76亿港元。 消息面上，津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口，碳酸锂期货今早一度涨超11%，最高见187700元/吨。中信证券 认为，该国的锂矿出口禁令将导致中国碳酸锂短期供应愈发紧缺，有望推动锂价大幅上涨。里昂此前研 报指出，宁德时代股价年初至今表现平淡，相信股价疲弱已大致反映近期的不利因素，包括中国电动车 销售放缓、锂价上涨，以及电池出口增值税退税削减。 ...

消息面上，津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口，碳酸锂期货今早一度涨超11%，最高见187700元/吨。中信证券 认为，该国的锂矿出口禁令将导致中国碳酸锂短期供应愈发紧缺，有望推动锂价大幅上涨。里昂此前研 报指出，宁德时代股价年初至今表现平淡，相信股价疲弱已大致反映近期的不利因素，包括中国电动车 销售放缓、锂价上涨，以及电池出口增值税退税削减。 宁德时代（300750）(03750)跌近6%，截至发稿，跌5.82%，报502港元，成交额8.76亿港元。 ...

行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 碳酸锂期货日报 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货继续上涨，总持仓增 23195 手，资金博弈情绪高涨，钢联晚盘电碳涨 9800 至 165300 元/吨，澳矿涨 90 美元/吨，锂云母涨 125 元/吨度，三元涨 5000 元/吨，磷酸铁锂涨 1200-1250 元/吨，产业链现涨价潮。节后锂价持续大涨，主 因基本面强劲及消息面刺激，2 月 25 日津巴布韦矿业部宣布，立即暂停所有原矿 和锂精矿的出口，包括在途货物，直至另 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium prices remain significantly below the historical highs reached in 2023, but have been rising in recent months due to supply disruptions in China and strong demand, with further increases expected [1] Price Trends - Lithium spodumene and lithium hydroxide prices have increased by approximately 35% year-to-date, with spodumene prices more than doubling since late June and lithium hydroxide prices increasing by over 100% [1] Supply Chain Issues - China's lithium supply continues to be adversely affected by environmental inspections and permit suspensions, contributing to the price increases [1] - The demand for lithium is bolstered by cathode material producers replenishing inventory ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday [1] Demand Outlook - The demand outlook for lithium remains optimistic, with energy storage systems performing better than expected [1] Related Stocks - Relevant U.S. stocks in the lithium sector include Albemarle (ALB.US), Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM.US), Lithium Americas (LAC.US), Lithium Argentina (LAR.US), Sigma Lithium (SGML.US), and Standard Lithium (SLI.US) [1]

Core Viewpoint - CATL's stock price has shown resilience amidst rising lithium prices, with a projected increase in production and sales for the year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CATL's stock rose nearly 5%, reaching HKD 505, with a trading volume of HKD 969 million [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts a 70% to 80% chance that CATL's stock will outperform the industry average in the next 15 days [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Dongwu Securities indicates that the rise in lithium prices has impacted mid-to-low-end demand, but CATL is less affected due to its focus on high-yield projects and overseas markets [1] - The firm estimates that the price of battery cells for medium storage projects has increased by 2-3 cents/wh, leading to a 1 percentage point decline in IRR [1] Group 3: Production and Sales Forecast - CATL is expected to produce 1.1 TWh this year, a 50% year-on-year increase, with a shipment volume of 900 GWh [1] - The company has demonstrated its ability to pass on costs during previous lithium price upcycles, and it is anticipated that lithium production will resume shortly [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries, indicating that the company is well-prepared for higher lithium price forecasts and improved profit margin prospects [1] - The overall industry outlook predicts that lithium prices will reach RMB 126,000 per ton by 2026, with prices expected to continue rising in the first half of the year due to low inventory levels [1] - The target price set for Tianqi Lithium is HKD 70 [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit between RMB 369 million and RMB 553 million for the previous year, which suggests a fourth-quarter net profit ranging from RMB 189 million to RMB 373 million [1] - The anticipated profit improvement aligns with the upward trend in lithium and spodumene prices within the industry [1]

Group 1 - The latest price of lithium carbonate as of January 21 is 159,000.00 CNY per ton, reflecting significant price increases over various time frames [2][4] - In the last 10 days, the price has risen by 13.57%, in 15 days by 23.26%, in 20 days by 33.17%, in 30 days by 47.59%, and in 60 days by 68.67% [2][4] Group 2 - Related producers in the lithium carbonate market include companies such as Chuaneng Power (000155), Cangge Mining (000408), Tibet Mining (000762), and others [2][4] - A total of 18 companies are listed as relevant producers, indicating a diverse industry landscape [2][4]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Lithium prices are on a significant upward trend driven by tax policy adjustments, with short - term demand boosted by "rush - to - export" expectations, but there are potential callback risks [1] - For on - exchange options, consider using strategies like buying in - the - money call options or bull call spread combinations to reduce costs [2] - For off - exchange options, clients with long positions planning to gradually reduce their holdings can consider the Phoenix Knock - Out Put Option to seize high - selling opportunities [3] Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong, with the main 2605 contract reaching 170,200 yuan/ton at mid - day, up 9.51% [1] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will drop from 9% to 6% and will be fully canceled on January 1, 2027 [1] - In the past two months, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% [1] - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative exports of power and other batteries reached 260.3GWh, accounting for 18.4% of total sales [1] On - exchange Options - Due to the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, consider using strategies such as buying in - the - money call options or bull call spread combinations [2] Off - exchange Options - Clients with long positions planning to gradually reduce their holdings can consider the Phoenix Knock - Out Put Option to seize high - selling opportunities and gain additional income during wide - range market oscillations [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflows. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It's expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after [1]. - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expectation trading with amplified fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, but strong expectations support the current high price [1][2]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for month - spread trading [5]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [6][7]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin has strong support in the short - term, and the upward drive is stronger before the macro - sentiment weakens. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, processing fee increases, and macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1290, and LME inventory decreased by 1750 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The recent rise in copper prices is due to potential US tariffs and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 310, and LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1][24]. - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading affects prices. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but strong expectations support high prices [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 20, and LME inventory decreased by 650 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and has different trends overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of Shanghai nickel changed by 3800, and LME inventory decreased by 228 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and the policy - fundamentals game continues [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and the price follows nickel price in the short term [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium remained unchanged, and LME inventory decreased by 1275 [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by production recovery and raw material tightness. Demand is expected to weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to low warehouse receipt risk [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot import gain changed by 2456.09, and LME inventory increased by 490 [12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: There are supply risks in major countries. In the short - term, the price has strong support and upward drive. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by - 40, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 12000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 610 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: Prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances and other factors. Downstream buyers are cautious [19].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in lithium mining stocks, with Yongxing Materials rising over 7%, and Cangge Mining and Dazhong Mining increasing by over 4% [1] - Notably, Cangge Mining and Zhongkuang Resources reached historical highs, while the main contract for lithium carbonate surged past 130,000, gaining over 8% in a single day, marking a new high since November 2023 [1] - Analysts express optimism regarding future demand in the lithium carbonate spot market, which has led to a bullish sentiment and a continuous rise in lithium prices [1] Group 2 - Various investors are actively participating in the market, with a noticeable increase in capital flow, as measures taken by the Guangxi Futures Exchange have attracted more traders [1] - Chen Jing, a lithium carbonate researcher at Yinhe Futures, noted that the strong performance of lithium carbonate futures has drawn in more participants, particularly those with capital exceeding 100,000 [1] - Industrial clients have entered the market early for hedging purposes, which may lead to continuous margin increases, contributing to the rise in the main contract's open interest [1] Group 3 - The table lists several companies with their respective stock performance, including Yongxing Materials with a market cap of 29.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 46.95% [2] - Cangge Mining has a market cap of 130.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 205.12%, while Dazhong Mining has a market cap of 49 billion and a year-to-date increase of 277.09% [2] - Other notable companies include Defang Nano, Guocheng Mining, and Zhongkuang Resources, all showing significant increases in both daily and year-to-date performance [2]