报告还提及多个关键事件对锂供应的冲击：藏格矿业(Zangge Mining)已于7月14日暂停生产;宁德时代 (CATL)旗下枧下窝锂矿于8月10日停产;宜春地区7座锂云母矿将于9月30日后面临停产风险;此外，中信 国安(Citic Guoan)青海盐湖锂生产基地也已实施产量限制。 基于上述判断，瑞银将美国雅保的评级从"卖出"上调至"中性"，并设定89美元的目标价。分析师表示， 中国锂供应端后续可能出现的进一步动作，使得此前"美国雅保长期面临低价压力"的观点面临更大挑战 (即雅宝股价下行风险减弱)。 瑞银分析师表示，受中国锂矿停产影响，预计2025-2028年期间，锂辉石价格将上涨至少9%、最高达 32%，锂化工产品价格涨幅也将处于4%-17%区间。 智通财经APP获悉，周三,全球最大锂生产商之一美国雅保(ALB.US)收涨7.5%，成为当日标普500指数中 表现最强劲的个股之一。此前瑞银发布分析报告指出，中国锂行业若出现大范围、长时间供应中断，可 能影响全球高达15%的锂产量，这一消息直接推动雅宝股价走高。 其他锂生产商股价也同步上涨：Sigma Lithium(SGML.US)大涨11.4%，Lithiu ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiments related to "anti-involution" and supply concerns stemming from compliance issues with mining permits in Jiangxi, particularly with a major mine's permit expiring on August 9 [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of the week of August 4-8, lithium carbonate futures rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 2.9% to 777 USD/ton, and lithium mica rose by 5.3% to 1,800 yuan/ton [2][3] Supply Concerns - The expiration of a mining permit for a major mine in Jiangxi, which has a monthly production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons of LCE, raises concerns about supply tightness, especially with the upcoming traditional stocking season [2][3] - There are seven other major lithium mines in Jiangxi facing permit issues, which could lead to significant supply constraints if all were to halt production [2][3] Demand Outlook - The demand from the downstream battery sector has exceeded expectations, with lithium battery production in July reaching 144 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37% [3] - Cumulative production from January to July was 944 GWh, up 50% year-on-year, indicating strong demand that may support lithium price resilience [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium businesses are seen as having a competitive advantage, with a recommendation for Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) and related companies including Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), and Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) [4]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks are becoming active again, with Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) rising by 3.62% to HKD 41.2 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) increasing by 1.75% to HKD 27.92 [1] - On August 8, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main LC2511 contract increasing by over 5% to CNY 75,340 per ton [1] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the significant increase in open interest reflects market belief in a higher probability of production halts in Jiangxi, leading to a speculative bet on a temporary supply shortage [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of lithium carbonate remains high, while demand shows steady growth, indicating a peak season characteristic in the third quarter [1] - The tight balance in the lithium carbonate market provides support for the futures prices [1]