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全球黄金需求三季度创历史新高,避险需求激增成主要推手
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-10-30 09:55
Core Insights - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons and a total value of $146 billion in Q3 2025, driven by heightened interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid global market volatility [1] Investment Demand Surge - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, marking a significant 47% year-on-year increase and accounting for 55% of total gold net demand [3] - Factors contributing to this increase include geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and rising gold prices, which have triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among investors [3] - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with global holdings increasing by 222 tons and inflow amounts reaching $26 billion in Q3 [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, global gold ETF holdings increased by 619 tons (approximately $64 billion), with North American funds leading the way [3] Jewelry Consumption Pressure - In contrast to the booming investment demand, global jewelry consumption faced significant pressure, declining by 19% year-on-year to 371 tons in Q3, the lowest level for that quarter since 2020 [4] - Despite a seasonal rebound in India and China, year-on-year performance remained weak [4] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [4] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese market exhibited structural characteristics, with total retail gold investment and consumption (including jewelry, bars, coins, and ETFs) declining by 7% year-on-year to 152 tons in Q3, the weakest performance since 2009 [5] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached a historical high of 120.4 billion yuan (approximately $16.9 billion), reflecting a 29% year-on-year increase [5] - Gold bar and coin sales in China rose by 19% year-on-year to 74 tons, while gold ETF experienced a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3 [6] Market Outlook - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic, driven by persistent factors such as geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies [6] - The report anticipates a seasonal improvement in jewelry consumption in China in Q4, while investment demand is expected to remain relatively strong [6]
投资需求推动黄金需求创纪录,投资大佬:不鼓励战术性押注
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-10-30 09:52
Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported a record global gold demand of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion, primarily driven by investment demand [1][2] - Investment demand surged to 537 tons, a 47% year-on-year increase, attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and rising gold prices triggering a fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors [1][2] - Prominent investors, including Ray Dalio, emphasize the importance of gold as a strategic asset allocation rather than a tactical bet, suggesting a 15% allocation to gold for most investors [1] Investment Demand Analysis - In Q3 2025, gold investment demand reached 537.2 tons, up from 364.8 tons in Q3 2024, marking a 47% increase [3] - Gold bar and coin demand increased by 17% year-on-year, from 270.1 tons to 315.5 tons [3] - Gold ETF demand saw a significant rise of 134%, increasing from 94.7 tons to 221.7 tons [3] Central Bank Purchases - Central banks accelerated gold purchases, totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The Bank of Korea is considering its first gold purchase since 2013, indicating a long-term strategy for gold accumulation [3] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks believe their gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months, highlighting gold's role as a crisis asset and a diversification tool [4]