1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market is in the off - season, with supply of shipping capacity in April at a historically high level. The potential blockade risk in the Mandatory Straits has limited impact on European routes, and as the situation in the Hormuz Strait calms down, the market may return to the fundamental logic of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The April spot quotes are stable, but some airlines are cutting prices to attract cargo. Maersk's opening price for the first week of April is $2300 per large container, and the PA Alliance quotes $2500 per large container, while offline prices have dropped to $1800 - $1900, indicating weak demand [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the off - season and high supply, and the limited impact of the Mandatory Straits risk, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the China export container shipping market is facing challenges. Most long - distance route freight rates have risen this week, driving up the comprehensive index. On March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1826.77 points, up 7.0% from the previous period [8] - **European Routes**: The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, better than expected. However, the eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1703/TEU, up 4.1% from the previous period [8] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weaker than those of European routes, and the market freight rate has slightly declined. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2764/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period [8] - **North American Routes**: The preliminary composite PMI in the US in March dropped to 51.4, hitting an 11 - month low. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on March 27 was $2352/FEU and $3264/FEU respectively, up 14.5% and 11.7% from the previous period [8][9] - **Persian Gulf Routes**: The military conflict in the Middle East continues, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf base ports was $3728/TEU, up 12.2% from the previous period [9] - **Geopolitical News**: Trump plans to end the military action against Iran through diplomatic means; China has three ships passing through the Hormuz Strait; Iran has various statements and actions regarding the war and the Hormuz Strait, and has proposed a bill to charge ships passing through the Hormuz Strait [9] 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From March 23 to 30, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes increased by 3.5% (from 1693.26 to 1752.54), and the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 23.4% (from 1024.11 to 1263.4) [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of multiple contracts such as EC2604 - EC2612 on March 31, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to shipping data, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base port freight rates, etc. [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - Companies must adopt a "wartime mindset" to effectively prepare for and respond to unpredictable risks, including geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1][4][14]. Group 1: Importance of Preparedness - The practice of developing contingency plans has become essential for companies facing various crises, such as military conflicts and pandemics [1][3]. - Shell, as a pioneer, integrated systematic contingency planning into its core decision-making processes, which proved beneficial during the oil crisis of the 1970s [3][4]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the need for companies to establish "wartime command centers" to manage crises effectively [5][6]. Group 2: Current Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty index, which measures economic policy instability, has reached record levels since 2018, indicating a challenging environment for businesses [6][7]. - The current geopolitical landscape, characterized by a lack of strong global leadership, complicates the ability of companies to navigate economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Strategic Adaptations - Companies are increasingly focusing on building inventory buffers and seeking alternative suppliers to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [9][10]. - The potential for "stagflation" due to rising oil prices and shipping costs poses significant risks, including slowed economic growth and increased inflation expectations [11][12]. Group 4: Lessons from the Pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped leadership styles, emphasizing the importance of transparency and vulnerability in leadership during crises [13][14]. - Companies are encouraged to remember the lessons learned from the pandemic, particularly the need for adaptable and authentic leadership in times of uncertainty [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall performance of non - ferrous metals this week showed a recovery. The Iran - related geopolitical situation still dominates the capital market sentiment. The market may be approaching a critical inflection point, and investors' focus is shifting from short - term inflation panic to long - term economic growth concerns [12]. - High oil prices will have a phased impact on non - ferrous metals. In the short - term, it may lead to price increases, while in the long - term, it may cause a decline due to negative economic feedback [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market performances and investment opportunities. For example, copper is expected to see its price center rise in the long - term due to inflation expectations, and downstream buying protection opportunities are emerging; zinc is in a state of shock recovery; aluminum and its related products have different trends, and investors need to make decisions based on different situations [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Iran - related geopolitical situation. The market is switching from short - term inflation panic to long - term economic growth concerns. High oil prices will have a phased impact on non - ferrous metals [12]. - **Single - side Strategies for Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, the price is under pressure, but in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise due to inflation expectations. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a weekly operating range of 95000 - 98000 [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in a state of shock recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a weekly operating range of 22000 - 24200 [13]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum and its alloys are recommended to buy on dips, while alumina is recommended to wait and see or short. The operating ranges are 23000 - 27000 for aluminum and aluminum alloys, and 2600 - 3500 for alumina [14]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock and strength. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a weekly operating range of 320000 - 400000 [14]. - **Lead**: It is in a state of range - bound fluctuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a weekly operating range of 16200 - 16800 [15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are in a state of wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to buy on dips. The operating ranges are 128000 - 140000 for nickel and 13400 - 14500 for stainless steel [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals in the week, such as copper with a closing price of 95930 and a 1.26% increase, zinc with a closing price of 23380 and a 1.94% increase, etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for different non - ferrous metals, such as exchange copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, aluminum inventory and price trends, etc. [24][26][30] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The recommended arbitrage strategy is the long spread between copper contracts 2605 - 2606, as domestic demand is entering the peak season, which will have a more obvious boost to spot and near - month contracts [16]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For copper, it is recommended to buy deep - out - of - the - money call options in the far - month or construct a long straddle to bet on increased volatility. For other metals, different option strategies such as buying out - of - the - money put options for protection are recommended [5][6][7][8]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with a 2.12% increase observed during the week of March 20-27, 2026[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.44%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.67%[3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with inflation expectations rising, exacerbating stagflation risks and delaying interest rate cuts[3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - As of March 27, 2026, the U.S. stock market fear index recorded 10.22, indicating a relatively pessimistic sentiment compared to historical lows[3] - The AAII investor sentiment index was at 49.79% on March 26, 2026, up 25.3% from pre-conflict levels but down 15.5% from the 2025 tariff period[3] - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at an 85.9% historical percentile, lower than the KOSPI200 (91.3%) and CAC40 (93.2%), but higher than the S&P 500 (80.8%)[54] Group 3: Risk Asset Performance - The implied volatility for gold, aluminum, and U.S. stocks is at historical high percentiles of 98.6%, 87.7%, and 96.2% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty[41][46] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 have dropped to the 6th percentile, while the NASDAQ's risk-adjusted returns fell to the 5th percentile as of March 27, 2026[51] - The Shanghai Composite's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 39% to 42% during the same period[51] Group 4: Capital Flows - As of March 25, 2026, foreign capital continued to flow into the Chinese stock market, with a net inflow of $14.3 billion, while domestic capital saw a net outflow of $6.8 billion[3] - U.S. equity markets experienced a significant outflow of $270.2 billion, while fixed income funds saw an inflow of $51 billion during the same week[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of commodities next week is expected to be in the order of energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of continuous reversal of market sentiment due to the erratic stance of the Trump administration [2][18][105] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - week Review - From March 16th to March 22nd, war expectations reversed continuously, and the trends of various commodities were differentiated. In terms of sectors, the order was oil chemical > non - ferrous metals > coal chemical > black > agricultural products > precious metals > energy. On Monday, the US - Iran conflict intensified, energy and chemical prices rose, driving the black sector stronger, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, and agricultural products fluctuated narrowly. On Tuesday, Trump started TACO, energy and chemical sectors weakened rapidly, and the increase in the black sector was also reduced. Subsequently, the market was mainly trading in the TACO mode. Near the weekend, the risk of war escalation reappeared, the decline in energy prices narrowed, and chemical products turned up. The market's interest - rate hike expectation decreased, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals rebounded [1][12] 3.1.2 Next - week Outlook - War situation and economic indicators will jointly affect the market next week. There are signs that the war is escalating again. Important economic indicators such as the March PMI of major economies and the US March non - farm payrolls will be released. It is expected that China's March PMI will rise, and the US March S&P manufacturing PMI will recover. War escalation is beneficial to energy and chemicals, and the price increase of energy products will spill over to the black and some agricultural products. Although the rise in oil prices has made the market price in the Fed's interest - rate hike this year, the risk of stagflation is also rising. The overall performance of commodities next week is expected to be energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals [2][17][18] 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond increased. As of the close on March 27th, the US dollar index rose 0.67% to 100.1745 compared with the close of last weekend; the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond was reported at 4.44%, up 5BP from last weekend, and the interest - rate spread between the 10Y Chinese and US Treasury bonds was inverted by 262.1BP. The war rhythm still affects the market. The RMB fluctuated narrowly [26] 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - The war rhythm was tortuous, oil prices fluctuated at a high level, and the price of coking coal was supported by energy - end disturbances [29] 3.4 Production - end High - frequency Data - This week, the production - end data of most commodities improved. Only the PE operating rate dropped to a recent low due to many maintenance devices. The supply and demand of soda ash and glass were both weak [33] 3.5 Inventory - end High - frequency Data - The inventories of gold and silver continued to decline slightly. The inventories of most industrial products showed the characteristic of de - stocking at a high level. The release of "Golden March" demand was an important reason for inventory de - stocking. However, the inventories of copper, aluminum, iron ore, methanol, PVC and other varieties were still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the de - stocking rhythm needed to be continuously observed. The slaughter weight of pigs continued to rise, and the inventory pressure was still high [47] 3.6 Demand - end High - frequency Data - This week, real - estate data was generally positive. The sales areas of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities and first - tier cities were both rising. The listing index of second - hand housing for sale in national cities declined slightly, and the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 cities also declined slightly but remained at a seasonally high level. The net financing scale of government bonds was slightly low this week, and the cumulative net financing amount of government bonds this year was lower than that of the same period last year. The passenger volume of the subway and the flight execution rate were both rising seasonally. The apparent consumption of rebar increased, and project construction accelerated. The freight rate index was still rising [71][72] 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pigs and soybean meal, but no specific analysis content is given [84] 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - The report provides data on commodity price ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio and pig - grain ratio, but no specific analysis content is given [97] 3.9 Summary and Outlook - The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of continuous reversal of market sentiment [3][105]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions combined with accelerated energy transition are driving lithium prices upward, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 11.3% to 164,000 CNY/ton [8]. - Gold is showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions, indicating a potential return to its safe-haven status if conflicts escalate further [1]. - The copper market is experiencing unexpected inventory reductions, with global exchange copper inventories decreasing by 147,000 tons [2]. - The aluminum market is facing significant price volatility due to ongoing geopolitical issues, although domestic demand is expected to improve as the market transitions into a consumption peak [3]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with SHFE nickel prices rising by 3.0% to 137,100 CNY/ton [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold is showing strong resilience despite recent price adjustments, with potential for upward movement if geopolitical tensions escalate [1]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventory reductions are exceeding expectations, with a notable decrease in SHFE and social inventories [2]. - The aluminum supply remains stable, with a slight increase in production capacity, while demand is expected to rise as the market approaches peak consumption [3]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with production challenges affecting smaller manufacturers [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are on the rise due to supply disruptions and increased demand from the energy transition, with significant price increases noted [8]. - Cobalt prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak downstream purchasing, with domestic electrolytic cobalt prices dropping by 0.5% to 426,000 CNY/ton [9]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Molybdenum, all of which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [10].

Group 1: Iran Military Actions - Iranian military reported hitting a U.S. Navy support vessel off the coast of Salalah, Oman, on the morning of the 28th [2] - Iranian forces conducted missile and drone strikes on two U.S. military "hidden bases" in Dubai, resulting in significant casualties among U.S. personnel [3] - Iranian military spokesperson indicated that two enemy refueling aircraft were destroyed and one U.S. support vessel was attacked [3] Group 2: Regional Tensions and Responses - Iranian President warned of strong retaliation if Iran's infrastructure or economic centers are targeted [4] - Pakistan's Prime Minister communicated with Iranian President to discuss diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region [5] Group 3: Impact on Global Shipping and Economy - A report indicated that the global shipping industry has incurred over €4.6 billion in additional fuel costs since February 28 due to the conflict, with significant price increases in fuel [6] - The price of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has risen to €941 per ton, a 223% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - The European Union is facing risks of stagflation due to rising energy prices, with potential economic growth reductions and inflation increases projected for 2026 [7] Group 4: Insider Trading Regulations - California Governor signed a law prohibiting state officials from profiting in prediction markets using insider information, following reports of significant profits made by individuals with access to sensitive information [8]

Core Viewpoint - The energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict is pushing global financial markets into a rare synchronized decline across multiple asset classes, with stocks, bonds, and gold all experiencing significant drops in March, leading to one of the most severe risk-off environments in recent years [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI Global Index tracking developed and emerging market stocks fell approximately 9% in March, while the S&P 500 Index recorded its longest losing streak since 2022, declining for five consecutive weeks [2][5]. - The composite indicators for global government and corporate bonds dropped over 3%, marking the worst monthly performance for the traditional "60-40" stock-bond portfolio since September 2022 [2][5]. - Gold prices plummeted 15% in March, as investors were forced to liquidate previously profitable long positions due to liquidity pressures [2][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Reactions - The core fear in the market is stagflation risk, as the sharp rise in energy prices following the Middle East conflict raises concerns about a simultaneous slowdown in economic growth and rising inflation, prompting central banks to reconsider their interest rate paths [2][5]. - Trump's extension of the deadline for attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure failed to calm investor sentiment, leading to a 1.7% drop in the S&P 500 on a single day, marking the largest two-day decline since the tariff crisis last year [6]. - Market reactions to statements from U.S. officials have shown signs of distrust, with investors increasingly focusing on the reality of energy shortages rather than verbal reassurances from the government [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Challenges - The current sell-off is notable for the simultaneous decline of stocks, bonds, and gold, challenging the effectiveness of multi-asset diversification strategies [5][8]. - Research indicates that the probability of bonds and gold rising on days when stocks fall has dropped to about 43%, significantly lower than over 60% a decade ago [8]. - Some market participants believe that the failure of fixed income diversification may be temporary, anticipating a return to a rate-cutting logic in the bond market once tensions ease [10]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Market - The market environment has undergone a deeper structural shift, moving from demand-side shocks to supply-side shocks, necessitating a revision of traditional investment narratives [11][12]. - The concept of safe-haven assets is increasingly being challenged, as the dynamics of the global economy and financial markets evolve [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Hong Kong market liquidity index has slightly decreased, supported by improved southbound capital inflows and increased stock yields, while being hindered by the widening SOFR-HIBOR spread, a stronger US dollar index, and heightened market volatility [1][2] - In February, Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.6 billion USD, reaching 439.2 billion USD, and the monetary base rose by 12.9 billion HKD to 2.07 trillion HKD [1] - The net capital inflow for January was 72 billion HKD, marking the third consecutive month of net inflows, although southbound net inflows decreased from 110.1 billion HKD to 49.8 billion HKD [1][2] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by 1.5%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased by 5.0%, while the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF experienced net outflows [2] - The average daily trading volume remained stable at approximately 283.1 billion HKD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.7% but a year-on-year decline of 13.6% [2] - The M3 money supply grew by 9.8% in January, continuing a trend of over 9% growth for thirteen consecutive months, while loans increased for the ninth consecutive month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 3 - The report notes that the recent escalation of the Middle East situation has heightened concerns about imported inflation and slowing growth, leading to a rapid decline in global risk appetite and increased volatility in the Hong Kong market [3] - The Federal Reserve's guidance indicates a potential for at least one rate cut this year, despite a tightening structure in the dot plot, reflecting a shift towards a "higher for longer" policy stance [3][4] - The report suggests that the market's reaction to stagflation risks and hawkish Fed pricing may be overdone, with a high threshold for rate hikes, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and oil price transmission in the coming month [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran situation, on global markets, highlighting the interplay between high oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1][5][17]. Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased liquidity support to stabilize the market [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with expectations of only one rate cut this year, indicating a prolonged high-rate environment [1]. - Oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with Goldman Sachs and others raising short-term oil price forecasts due to supply risks [1]. - Gold prices are driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, closing above $4,500 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights Shipping - The EC index fell by 6.04%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - Container shipping rates have decreased, with significant price adjustments noted for large containers, indicating pressure on shipping rates due to reduced export demand [2][33]. Copper - Copper prices rose by 0.69%, supported by tight supply conditions, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [24]. - The overall copper production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline, with attention needed on downstream demand and smelting output [24]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed a rebound, with significant trading volumes, although the market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [3][27]. - The financing balance decreased, indicating a more cautious approach from investors during the earnings disclosure period [3][27]. Group 3: Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with recent geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite and liquidity conditions [23]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [23]. Energy - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical developments, with the U.S. delaying military actions against Iran, which has implications for energy prices [18]. - The International Energy Agency noted that the current Middle East crisis could have a more severe impact on energy prices than past oil crises [18]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian soybean harvest rates are lagging behind historical averages, but overall production is expected to be high, impacting global soybean prices [28]. - The palm oil market is influenced by production increases in Southeast Asia, although potential export restrictions from Indonesia could support prices [29].