在周二举行的格林威治经济论坛上，桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧表示，黄金"肯定"比美元更具避风港作用，并且黄金创纪录的涨势与1970年代的情况类 似，当时黄金在高通胀和经济不稳定的背景下出现飙升。 10月8日早盘，黄金期现货集体走高，现货黄金一度突破3999美元/盎司，续创历史新高，逼近4000美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货持续走高，现报4018.4美 元/盎司。 | < W | | | | 伦敦金现 | | | Q | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 3998.150 | 昨结 | | | 3984.340 | 总量 | | 0 | | | +13.810 | +0.35% 开盘 | | | 3984.460 | 现手 | | 0 | | | 最高价 | 3999.360 持 | | ਦੇ | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | | 最低价 | 3982.748 瑞 | | | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | | 分时 | モ日 | 日K | | 園K ...

● 本报记者 昝秀丽 全国社会保障基金理事会9月29日发布的2024年基本养老保险基金受托运营年度报告显示，地方养老基 金2024年投资收益额1056.88亿元，投资收益率5.52%。 社保基金会相关负责人表示，社保基金会坚持并持续丰富"长期投资、价值投资、责任投资"理念，审慎 稳健开展投资运营管理，忠实履行好基金安全和保值增值主体责任。 近8年年均投资收益率5.06% 报告显示，2024年末，养老基金资产总额28396.52亿元，权益总额23350.03亿元，其中，直接投资 5826.42亿元，占基金权益总额的24.95%；委托投资17523.61亿元，占基金权益总额的75.05%。 地方养老基金资产总额28247.96亿元，权益总额23233.02亿元；风险基金资产总额150.81亿元，权益总 额117.01亿元。 投资业绩方面，地方养老基金2024年投资收益额1056.88亿元，投资收益率5.52%，其中，已实现收益额 662.79亿元（已实现收益率3.50%），交易性资产公允价值变动额394.09亿元。自2016年12月受托运营 以来，地方养老基金累计投资收益额4123.59亿元，年均投资收益率5.0 ...

以多元资产配置 平衡持有体验和长期收益 ◎记者 聂林浩 今年以来，全球大类资产相关性提升，结构性行情持续演绎。如何有效配置不同资产，实现持有体验和 账户收益的平衡，成为众多投资者共同面临的难题。针对这个问题，专注于FOF与量化投研工作的广发 基金资产配置部基金经理宋家骥，形成了以宏观量化框架和风险预算体系为核心的多资产配置方法。 宋家骥在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，资产配置的价值不仅在于获取收益，还在于通过科学的方法 构建风险收益更优的组合。在此投资理念下，其参与管理的偏债混合型FOF以较小的波动取得良好的收 益。Wind数据显示，截至9月25日，广发悦享一年持有FOF近一年回报10.12%，最大回撤2.48%，卡玛 比率4.33，而同期同类FOF产品的平均最大回撤为10.2%。 资产配置的"道"与"术" 资产配置是FOF产品的"骨架"，其核心价值在于通过跨市场、跨类别的大类资产配置，增加组合收益来 源，同时降低整体波动，获得比单一资产更优的风险收益特征。在实际操作中，宋家骥将其拆解为两个 层次：第一层是大类资产配置，这是决定组合风险收益特征的"地基"；第二层则是底层基金及基金经理 的优选，是在既定框架中发 ...

Core Insights - The event "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of multi-asset investment strategies in the current economic environment [1][8]. Group 1: Market Opportunities and Asset Allocation - The current market presents a mixed picture; while the attractiveness of equities may be declining compared to last year, they still offer better value compared to low-risk returns below 2% [3][18]. - The discussion emphasized the significance of multi-asset allocation, particularly in a low inflation environment, with equities, bonds, and commodities being the most favorable asset classes [4][23]. - The concept of risk parity was highlighted as a crucial strategy for achieving stable returns while managing volatility, especially in the context of China's capital market [10][23]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Perspectives - The panelists discussed the importance of absolute return strategies, particularly for institutional investors like university endowments, which require stable and consistent returns [6][30]. - There is a growing recognition that value and growth stocks can coexist, with some stocks fitting into both categories, suggesting a more integrated approach to stock selection [4][20]. - The need for strategic asset allocation was emphasized, with a focus on risk budgeting and the importance of diversifying across low-correlated assets to enhance overall portfolio performance [12][23]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The panelists expressed concerns about potential market overheating, particularly in sectors that have seen rapid price increases, indicating a cautious approach to current market conditions [19][26]. - The discussion also touched on the unique characteristics of university endowment funds, which typically have longer investment horizons and lower risk appetites compared to other funds [27][30]. - The role of ESG factors in investment decisions was highlighted, with a consensus that while ESG may not significantly enhance returns, it contributes to risk management and stability [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The focus on multi-asset risk hedging is crucial for capturing multiple sources of returns in the FOF (Fund of Funds) market, with strategic allocation providing systematic beta returns as the main source of portfolio gains [1][4]. Multi-Asset Risk Hedging - Multi-asset risk hedging is identified as an important source of returns, emphasizing the need for a combination of subjective and quantitative approaches in investment strategies [3]. - The investment philosophy includes a focus on representative and liquid index funds, as well as actively managed funds that aim for long-term excess returns [3]. Strategic Asset Allocation - Strategic asset allocation is the primary step in portfolio investment, requiring an analysis of the risk-return characteristics and correlations of various asset classes [4]. - The systematic beta returns from strategic allocation are considered the main source of portfolio gains, even in the absence of tactical timing or alpha returns [4]. - The allocation strategy should be tailored to different funding characteristics, with an emphasis on recognizing macroeconomic conditions to enhance confidence in asset allocation ratios [4]. Market Outlook - The upcoming structural reforms in the capital market, represented by the new "National Nine Articles," are expected to reshape the A-share ecosystem in the long term [5]. - A potential recovery in the domestic inventory cycle and the global semiconductor cycle may enhance risk appetite [5][6]. - The focus on technology and manufacturing sectors is highlighted as a key area for growth, particularly in the context of the digital economy [6]. - The long-term downtrend in interest rates is anticipated to benefit high-dividend strategies, while investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks are also emphasized [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that multi-asset risk hedging is a significant source of capturing multiple returns, with strategic allocation providing systematic beta returns as the main source of portfolio returns [1][3] - The investment strategy should be tailored according to the nature of the funds, with tactical asset allocation focusing on short to medium-term opportunities to achieve alpha returns [1][3] - The growth sectors to watch include those characterized by technology and manufacturing [1][4] Group 2 - As of now, six FOF products managed by the company have shown good returns, with the "工银睿智进取一年A" fund achieving a 14.88% return year-to-date and a 31.62% net value growth over the past year [2] - The fund's asset allocation is diversified, with over 90% of its positions in various ETFs, including those focused on internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, chips, and gold [2] - The investment philosophy combines subjective and quantitative methods, utilizing macroeconomic analysis to assess economic cycles and systematic multi-perspective industry comparisons for asset allocation [2][3] Group 3 - Strategic asset allocation is crucial for investment, requiring an analysis of the risk-return characteristics and correlations of various asset classes to determine allocation ratios [3] - The principles for strategic asset allocation include a preference for equities over the long term and diversification to expand the investment scope [3][5] - The upcoming structural reforms in the capital market, represented by the new "国九条," are expected to reshape the A-share ecosystem positively [4][5] Group 4 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests that the domestic inventory cycle and global semiconductor cycle may be bottoming out, potentially enhancing risk appetite [4] - The focus on structural opportunities in equity assets will depend on policy support and profit recovery, with supply-demand improvements benefiting certain sectors [5] - The company highlights the importance of investing in technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in the context of the digital economy and AI technology [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the limitations of market timing in investment strategies, emphasizing that long-term asset allocation is more critical for achieving investment success than attempting to time the market [3][16]. Group 1: Market Timing Analysis - Peter Lynch's analysis from 1965 to 1995 shows that even with perfect timing, the difference in annualized returns between the best and worst timing investors is minimal, with only a 1.1% difference [4][6]. - In the Chinese A-share market, from 2005 to 2024, the annualized return for the worst timing investor is 3.71%, while the best timing investor achieves 7.82%, indicating a 4.11% difference in a more volatile market [9][10]. - The costs associated with active management in China are approximately 2.2% annually, which can diminish the perceived benefits of market timing [12][15]. Group 2: Asset Allocation vs. Market Timing - Research by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower indicates that 91.5% of investment returns are determined by asset allocation, far exceeding the impact of market timing and stock selection [18]. - Asset allocation is defined as a long-term strategy (5-10 years) that involves creating a diversified portfolio based on risk-return objectives, while market timing is a short-term strategy focused on buying low and selling high [20][21]. - Tactical asset allocation can enhance returns during market cycles but should be a disciplined adjustment around a strategic asset allocation framework [23]. Group 3: Costs of Market Timing - The article highlights that market timing is a probability game that can lead to significant costs, including missing out on market rebounds and compounding returns [25][29]. - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that even with a 70% success rate in timing, the actual benefits may be negligible when considering transaction costs and the risk of missing out on bull markets [30][31]. - The importance of being invested during market opportunities is emphasized, as asset allocation allows investors to remain engaged in the market without the need for precise predictions [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment framework of Tang Jun, a FOF fund manager, focusing on a "configuration-first" approach to achieve stable and high-risk-adjusted returns for investors [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - "Configuration-first" means establishing a personal allocation framework and viewpoint before selecting fund managers or products that align with these views [3]. - The ability to have an independent and objective analysis framework is crucial for making allocation decisions [5]. - A strict and scientific risk budgeting framework is necessary to ensure long-term asset allocation success [5]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation - Tactical asset allocation is based on analyzing expected differences in asset prices, which may not solely depend on fundamentals [10]. - An example of tactical allocation was provided, where long-duration bond funds were reduced due to overheated market expectations and weakening fundamentals [12]. Group 3: Asset Classes and Return Streams - Different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities are viewed as distinct return streams, especially when they exhibit low correlation [9]. - The importance of identifying and separating different return streams, including strategies within the same asset class, is highlighted [9]. Group 4: Gold Allocation - The consistent allocation to gold since the product's inception is attributed to macroeconomic factors, particularly the declining status of the US dollar as a reserve currency [13]. Group 5: ETF Utilization - ETFs are preferred for equity holdings due to their ability to efficiently reflect style configurations and enhance capital utilization [14]. Group 6: Active Fund Selection - The selection of active funds focuses on stable styles and the ability to generate alpha after removing style beta [15]. - The process of stripping away style beta is essential for accurately assessing a fund manager's alpha contribution [16]. Group 7: Future Aspirations - The goal is to create a stable, high-risk-adjusted return fund similar to the all-weather strategy of Bridgewater Associates [18].

Group 1: Core Insights - AI is becoming a new anchor point for global markets, despite high valuations of US tech stocks, due to strong profitability of related companies [1][5] - The current global environment is complex, with a lack of long-term macro anchors affecting investment strategies, leading to a focus on tactical asset allocation over strategic allocation [4][5] Group 2: Market Analysis - The US tech sector remains the strongest performer in the stock market, achieving approximately 20% returns in Q1, significantly outperforming the market average [8] - AI infrastructure investments are seen as having a clear outlook, driven by strong structural forces that will take years to fully materialize [7] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "Tech Seven" companies have shown significant earnings growth despite only slight stock price increases, indicating a disconnect between market performance and profitability [5][8] - China and Europe are emerging as new opportunities in the AI sector, with a neutral outlook on Chinese stocks but a focus on sectors benefiting from structural forces or policy support [9] Group 4: Economic Considerations - The US bond market is viewed with caution, as current pricing reflects excessive rate cut expectations, which may not align with ongoing inflation pressures [13] - The dynamics of global supply chains are highlighted, indicating that abrupt changes could lead to significant consequences, including inflation and supply issues [11]

Core Viewpoint - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming a new anchor point for global markets, despite high valuations of US tech stocks compared to historical levels, due to strong profitability of related companies [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Environment and Investment Strategy - The current global environment is complex, with a lack of macroeconomic anchors affecting investment strategies. Traditional strategic asset allocation is challenged by the absence of long-term anchors [4][5]. - Investors should allocate more risk budget to tactical asset allocation (6-12 months) rather than strategic asset allocation (over 3 years) in the current environment [5]. - AI is identified as a significant driving force for long-term returns, surpassing macroeconomic predictions, and is currently in its first phase of development [6]. Group 2: AI and Investment Opportunities - AI infrastructure investment prospects are promising, driven by strong structural forces that will take years to fully materialize. There is confidence in infrastructure investments, particularly in renewable energy [8]. - The "Tech Seven" companies in the US have shown significant profitability growth, although their stock prices have only slightly increased this year. This disconnect between market performance and profitability presents tactical investment opportunities [6][9]. Group 3: US Tech Stocks Valuation - The technology sector remains the strongest performer in the US stock market, achieving approximately 20% returns in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 18-19%, significantly exceeding the market average of 14% [9]. - Despite slightly high valuations compared to long-term averages, traditional mean reversion principles may not apply in the new paradigm, making valuation just one of several considerations [9][10]. Group 4: Global Investment Landscape - In the next 6-12 months, a neutral stance is taken on Chinese stocks, with a preference for sectors benefiting from structural forces or policy support, particularly technology and healthcare [12]. - European tech companies are seen as having favorable conditions, especially in a local tech preference environment, while European financial stocks offer attractive dividend yields [12]. Group 5: US Treasury Market and Gold Investment - Caution is advised regarding the US Treasury market, as current pricing reflects excessive rate cut expectations, which may not align with ongoing inflation pressures [19]. - Gold is viewed as a sustainable investment, with increasing importance in portfolio diversification. Central banks are playing a larger role in gold allocation as international investors reconsider US Treasury investments [18].