Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates, the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US, and the traditional consumption off - season are intertwined. However, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and inventory may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, are all in a reasonable range. Due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and social inventory, and the expected suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State's Manxiang mine resumed production in late April, but due to strict mining license approval, reduced approved capacity, and the change of export tax from cash to physical tax, the actual capacity ramp - up is slow (the initial increase is no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period is required). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 9 (production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively), and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. China's tin ore production and imports in July increased month - on - month [3][21]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared with last week, and China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][28]. - Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. China's refined tin imports in July may increase month - on - month [30][32]. Demand - side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July increased (increased) month - on - month, and the import (export) volume of solder strips in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][34][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][42][44]. - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, it may affect tin demand [46][49]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both in a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are positive and in a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10]. - The social inventory of refined tin in China increased compared with last week, and the inventories of SHFE, LME, and domestic tin ingots also increased [11][13]. - The domestic tin ore processing fee is in a downward trend, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [15][17].