Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates, the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US, and the traditional consumption off - season are intertwined. However, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and inventory may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, are all in a reasonable range. Due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and social inventory, and the expected suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State's Manxiang mine resumed production in late April, but due to strict mining license approval, reduced approved capacity, and the change of export tax from cash to physical tax, the actual capacity ramp - up is slow (the initial increase is no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period is required). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 9 (production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively), and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. China's tin ore production and imports in July increased month - on - month [3][21]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared with last week, and China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][28]. - Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. China's refined tin imports in July may increase month - on - month [30][32]. Demand - side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July increased (increased) month - on - month, and the import (export) volume of solder strips in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][34][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][42][44]. - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, it may affect tin demand [46][49]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both in a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are positive and in a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10]. - The social inventory of refined tin in China increased compared with last week, and the inventories of SHFE, LME, and domestic tin ingots also increased [11][13]. - The domestic tin ore processing fee is in a downward trend, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [15][17].