美联储降息预期升温支撑锡价 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年08月25日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656， 有色金属周报(精炼锡) 缅甸佤邦锡矿完全复产仍需时间， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472） 精炼锡 供给端：缅甸佤邦7月11日开会确定第一批40-50个硐口缴费复采（初期增量不超1万金属吨且需2-3个 月传导期，共计108个硐口），或使国内锡矿8月生产量（进口量）环比增加（增加），叠加国内锡精矿加 工费震荡趋降，或预示国内锡矿供给预期偏紧；中国再生锡8月生产量环比增加；云南及中国（江西）精炼 锡产能开工率较上周升高（持平）；中国精炼锡8月生产（库存）量环比增加（增加）；印尼8月出口量或 环比增加，进出口仍处亏损状态或使中国精炼锡8月进口（出口）量环比减少（减少）。 需求端：光伏焊带日度加工费环比有所下降，或使中国锡焊料8月产能开工率（库存量）环比下降（增 加），中国焊带8月进口（出口）量或环比减少（增加），中国镀锡板8月生产量（进口量、出口量）或环 比增加（减少、增加）。 投资策略：美联储9月降息预期有所升温，海内外锡锭总库存量环降，但因缅甸佤邦和刚果 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upside potential of Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels around 255,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 278,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, mainly due to the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year, but also the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the rising weekly operating capacity of domestic refined tin. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The negative spread of LME tin (0 - 3) and positive spread of (3 - 15) are within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years, mainly due to the Trump administration's re-imposition of tariffs on many countries, but also the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year and the decrease in LME refined tin inventory compared to last week. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities for the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of 40 - 50 mines in Wa State, Myanmar will resume production after paying fees on July 11 (the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines), and Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo-Kinshasa on April 9, which may lead to a month-on-month increase in the production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in August [21]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [17]. - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in August may increase month-on-month [22]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Jiangxi and Yunnan has increased (remained flat) compared to last week, and the production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in August has increased (increased) month-on-month [28]. - Due to the impact of a corruption investigation on the approval of mining licenses by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and the possible reduction of medium - to long - term export quotas, and the plan of Indonesian state - owned tin mining company PT Timah to increase tin production and sales in 2025, the export volume in August may increase month-on-month. The continued loss in imports and exports may lead to a month-on-month decrease in the import (export) volume of Chinese refined tin in August [32]. Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tin solder in August may decrease month-on-month, and the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strip has decreased month-on-month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in August [33][35]. - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strip in August may decrease (increase) month-on-month [37]. - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tinplate in August may increase (decrease, increase) month-on-month [43]. Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese refined tin has decreased compared to last week [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of Chinese tin ingots has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week; the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared to last week [13]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) is negative and the spread of (3 - 15) is positive, both within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and North Kivu, Congo, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are all within a reasonable range. Given the expected increase in production and inventory and the influence of factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations and mine resumptions, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State determined on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental production of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and imports in August [20]. - China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (or remained flat) compared to last week, and China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month [27]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin mining company PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. The export volume in August may increase month - on - month, but due to the loss in imports and exports, China's refined tin imports and exports in August may decrease month - on - month [31]. Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of China's tin solder in August may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month [34]. - China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production and exports in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease month - on - month [42]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai and London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five - year average [8][10]. - China's refined tin social inventory, SHFE refined tin inventory, and the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory have increased compared to last week, while the LME refined tin inventory has decreased [11][13]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has shown a downward trend, indicating a potentially tight supply of domestic tin ore [14][16]. Other - The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid battery has remained flat compared to last week [44][47].

Core Insights - The overall quality of photovoltaic (PV) components has significantly declined from 2017 to 2024, particularly noted from the end of 2023, aligning with the industry's cost reduction and price drop efforts [1][2] Group 1: Quality Assessment of PV Components - In a recent survey of 36 companies and 69 batches of PV components, 11 batches were found to be non-compliant, with 5 batches failing mechanical load tests, 8 batches not meeting the efficiency standards set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and 3 batches failing to meet power output standards [1] - The quality of PV glass, crucial for component safety, has deteriorated since 2022, reverting to early industry levels, with 3 out of 10 batches failing quality tests primarily due to bending strength issues [1] - The compliance rate for frame products has been consistently low, with a recent survey showing a compliance rate below 50%, mainly due to non-compliance in chemical composition and wall thickness [2] Group 2: Specific Product Quality Issues - The quality of solder ribbon products has seen a notable decline, with 26 out of 61 batches failing, primarily due to non-compliance in tin-lead content [2] - Although encapsulant products have historically had high compliance rates, recent surveys indicate issues with peel strength and mass density, with POE and EVA compliance rates around 80% and 85% respectively, while EPE compliance is below 80% [2] - The overall compliance rate for junction boxes in 2025 was reported to be below 50%, with failures concentrated in thermal performance tests of bypass diodes [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Quality Improvement - Six recommendations were proposed to enhance quality, including the establishment of guiding documents for performance indicators, strengthening regulatory sampling across the supply chain, and improving procurement standards to focus on material performance [3] - Increased monitoring and acceptance testing, along with enhanced inspection of existing power plants, were suggested to manage supplier credibility and ratings effectively [3] - Encouragement of outdoor empirical testing and the adoption of new standards and methods for quality control in procurement, acceptance, and inspections was also recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates, the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US, and the traditional consumption off - season are intertwined. However, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and inventory may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, are all in a reasonable range. Due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and social inventory, and the expected suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State's Manxiang mine resumed production in late April, but due to strict mining license approval, reduced approved capacity, and the change of export tax from cash to physical tax, the actual capacity ramp - up is slow (the initial increase is no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period is required). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 9 (production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively), and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. China's tin ore production and imports in July increased month - on - month [3][21]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared with last week, and China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][28]. - Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. China's refined tin imports in July may increase month - on - month [30][32]. Demand - side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July increased (increased) month - on - month, and the import (export) volume of solder strips in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][34][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][42][44]. - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, it may affect tin demand [46][49]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both in a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are positive and in a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10]. - The social inventory of refined tin in China increased compared with last week, and the inventories of SHFE, LME, and domestic tin ingots also increased [11][13]. - The domestic tin ore processing fee is in a downward trend, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hahong Huadong (301137.SZ) surged significantly due to media reports linking the company's products to controllable nuclear fusion projects, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 30% in stock price over two trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On May 23 and May 26, Hahong Huadong's stock price hit the daily limit, with a total increase of 44% over these two days, adding over 1 billion yuan to the company's market capitalization [1] - On May 27, the stock opened high and fluctuated, reaching a maximum increase of over 17%, closing at 36.79 yuan per share, up 11.52% [1] Group 2: Company Financials - In 2022, Hahong Huadong reported a revenue of 1.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.43%, and a net profit of 46.05 million yuan, down 40.12% [2] - In 2023, the company experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.49%, with net profit rising by 25.92% to 57.99 million yuan [2] - In 2024, revenue slightly decreased by 0.36% to 1.573 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 30.19% to 40.48 million yuan [2] Group 3: Product Composition - Welding wires are the main source of revenue for Hahong Huadong, generating 1.231 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 78.24% of total revenue [2] - Welding strips contributed 113 million yuan, representing 7.2% of total revenue [2] Group 4: Investment Activities - At the end of last year, Hahong Huadong made its first external investment, planning to invest 122 million yuan in Haiyan Zhongda Metal Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. to enhance the scale of special welding materials and improve product structure [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 增持（下调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,175 | 2,673 | 2,828 | 3,250 | 3,736 | | 同比（%） | 74.39 | 22.91 | 5.81 | 14.92 | 14.93 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 120.47 | 42.29 | 32.90 | 52.12 | 68.42 | | 同比（%） | 139.99 | (64.90) | (22.19) | 58.41 | 31.27 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.10 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.48 | 0.62 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.84 | 47.97 | 61.65 | 38.92 | 29.65 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The resumption of production at the Wabang Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar still takes time and the fee standard has increased, there are still disruptions in refined tin production in Malaysia, and the inventories of refined tin at home and abroad are decreasing. These factors may cause the price of Shanghai tin to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 260,570, down 2,270 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,003 lots, down 24,008 lots; open interest was 12,035 lots, down 5,566 lots; inventory was 8,722 tons, down 192 tons [1]. - **Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin semi - average price was 260,200, down 2,800; the Shanghai tin basis was - 370, down 530; the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 20, up 50; the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was 80, down 320 [1]. - **London Tin**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on April 25 was 31,975; the LME tin 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 166.99; the LME tin 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 135; the LME global tin inventory was 2,845 tons; the LME registered inventory was 2,415 tons; the cancelled warrants were 430 tons; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.15, down 0.07 [1]. 3.2 Project Information - **Oropesa Project**: It will make the company the first European vertically - integrated tin producer from mine to metal. The feasibility study outlines a 1.4 - million - ton - per - year open - pit mine, expected to produce an average of 3,405 tons of tin per year over a 12 - year mine life and be processed at a local smelter in Spain. The first ore reserve report shows a reserve of 15.9 million tons, with a tin grade of 0.36% and a metal content of 57,900 tons [1]. 3.3 Industry News - **Wabang Mining**: On April 23, 2025, a symposium on the resumption of production of the Manxiang tin mine was held, clarifying the process of obtaining mining, concentrator, and exploration licenses. The new fee standards are significantly higher than those in 2023, which will increase the cost pressure on low - altitude mines and small - and medium - sized concentrators. The full resumption of normal mining is expected to take about two months, and the resumption of production in Wabang and the restart of the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) may relieve supply pressure to some extent [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The resumption of production in Wabang and Congo (Kinshasa) may affect domestic tin ore production and imports, and domestic tin concentrate processing fees are expected to decline, indicating a tight supply of domestic tin ore. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase, and the production of recycled tin in China in May may increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan have decreased, and the production and inventory of refined tin in China in May may decrease. The export volume of Malaysia's MSC smelting company may increase, and the import volume of refined tin in China in June may increase [1]. - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, and the operating rate of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decline. The import volume of solder strips in China in May may decrease, and the export volume may increase. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in June may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid battery production capacity in China has increased [1].