供给延续偏紧，关注 缅甸复产进展 锡月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：尽管近期缅甸佤邦地区矿产开采证已审批完毕，但复产进度偏慢，预计四季度锡矿供应才能得到显著恢复。根据中国海关公布的数 据，2025年8月我国进口锡精矿实物量达10267吨，较上月持平。自刚果（金）、俄罗斯、玻利维亚等国进口锡精矿量级有所下滑，但整体量 级处于正常水平，仅为船期等运输因素影响。自缅甸进口锡矿量有所回升，随着采矿证审批通过，短期供应有改善迹象。自其他地区及国家 进口锡矿量级保持往期水平。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，11月前难以放量，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，叠加9月某大型冶炼企业开启检修，导致 本周云南地区开工率大幅下滑；江西地区则因废料显著 ...

西南期货指出，矿端方面仍旧偏紧，佤邦复产进度推进缓慢，预计大量产出时间延后，目前国内加工费 低位，冶炼厂亏损且原料库存进一步缩紧，开工率低于正常水平，进口方面印尼严打非法矿山，或影响 后续产出及出口，供应方面总体偏紧；需求端，锡下游消费市场呈现出"传统领域承压，新兴动能显 现"的复杂图景。整体需求虽未出现强劲反弹，但在人工智能和新能源等领域的结构性支撑下，仍展现 出一定韧性。供需偏紧下，精炼锡显性库存进一步去化，预计锡价或震荡偏强运行。 中辉期货表示，假期伦锡走强，印尼锡矿及生产出现扰动，海外供应担忧加剧，国内锡供应端存在检修 停产，终端消费存有支撑，锡价反弹走势。 10月9日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报280200.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及287780.00元，下方探低280180.00元，涨幅达3.07%附 近。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面，美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可 能支持9月不降息。基本面 ...

9月30日（周二），印尼锡出口商协会（Indonesia Tin Exporters Association）主席Harwendro Adityo Dewanto周二表示，该协会估计，该国今年精炼锡出口量 将自2024年的45,000吨增加至53,000吨左右。 该协会预计，一些私人锡冶炼厂复产将支持运输，这些冶炼厂在过去两年中因司法部对国有矿商Timah和其他公司的调查而停止运营。 "许多私人冶炼厂正在恢复生机，出口商也在恢复生机。" 国有矿商Timah本月早些时候表示，其对实现产量目标持乐观态度，因为政府整顿行动将有助于消除非法竞争。 （文华综合） LME期锡和沪锡价格飙升，此前该国总统普拉博沃·苏比安托下令关闭苏门答腊岛邦加-勿里洞省1,000个非法采矿点。 他称，"邦加-勿里洞省约80%的锡矿产量都是通过各种渠道被走私到国外的，途径包括小型船只和客运轮船等。" 他强调，所有走私通道现已全部封锁，"完 全没有退路，就连乘独木舟也走不通了。" Harwendro Adityo Dewanto称，"到目前为止，该国政府的整顿行动并没有扰乱生产活动。那些仍然有采矿配额的矿企继续努力完成配额，其他矿企已经在为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in tin prices due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining, which has raised concerns about potential supply shortages in the global tin market [1][2] - On September 29, tin prices surged over 3% in London, surpassing $35,510 per ton, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main tin contract reached 283,000 yuan per ton, marking the highest prices since May [1][2] - Market analysts expect that despite weak demand currently, there is optimism for a recovery in demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," coupled with low refined tin inventories [1][4] Group 2 - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines on Sumatra Island, which has caused market turbulence due to the region's significance in global tin mining [2] - However, some analysts believe the actual impact on Indonesia's overall tin production will be limited, as the closed illegal mines were small-scale operations and the country has sufficient legal mining capacity [2][3] - Prior to Indonesia's crackdown, tin supply was already tight, with domestic refined tin production expected to decrease due to maintenance in Yunnan and underwhelming recovery in Myanmar's tin mining [3][4] Group 3 - Although the demand side has not shown strong momentum, there are signs of improvement, with some sectors like semiconductors and automotive chips providing support for tin demand [4] - As of August 2025, the monthly operating rate of tin solder in domestic sample enterprises was 73.22%, an increase from July's 71.36%, driven by tightening supply expectations and seasonal stocking [4] - Despite the overall market being in a "weak supply and demand" balance, there is still market anticipation for a potential recovery in demand during the peak consumption season [4][5] Group 4 - In the context of increasing short-term supply shocks, analysts generally believe that tin prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend [5][6] - Jinrui Futures indicates that the crackdown on illegal mining is pushing the industry towards formalization, with limited impact expected on the legitimate supply chain [5] - The balance sheet data shows a refined tin production growth rate of approximately -2.2% and a demand growth rate adjustment to -2.4%, indicating a continuing annual shortfall in refined tin [5][6]

Group 1 - The global refined tin production in July 2025 is projected to be 25,600 tons, while the consumption is expected to be 27,400 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 1,800 tons [2] - From January to July 2025, the global refined tin production totals 203,300 tons, with consumption at 214,200 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 10,900 tons [2] - The global tin ore production in July 2025 is estimated at 20,700 tons [2] Group 2 - The total global tin ore production from January to July 2025 is reported to be 176,700 tons [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported that refined tin exports in August amounted to 3,246.46 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 49% and a month-on-month decline of 14%, marking a continuous drop for three consecutive months [2] - The closure of Indonesia's tin export window has led to a sustained decline in export volumes, with August exports reaching a near two-year low [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported a 49% year-on-year decrease in refined tin exports for August, totaling 3,246.46 tons [2] - The refined tin export volume in July was 3,792.22 tons, indicating a decline from the previous month [2] - In the same month last year, the export volume was significantly higher at 6,436.27 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation is almost certain, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, but weak demand causes the total inventory of tin ingots at home and abroad to increase month - on - month, which may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 265,000 - 270,000 and the pressure level around 276,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,300 - 34,000 and the pressure level around 35,000 - 36,000 for London tin [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Supply - side - Andrada Mining's second concentrator in Namibia started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons [1] - In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines paid fees to resume mining, with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period [1] - Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa, with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and power system repair taking more than 3 months [1] - Thailand's suspension of Myanmar tin ore transit exports to China in June may affect 500 - 1,000 metal tons, which may increase (decrease) China's tin ore production (import) in September [1] - The domestic tin concentrate processing fee fluctuates and declines, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [1] - China's recycled tin production in September decreases month - on - month [1] - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi decline (remain flat) compared with last week [1] - Yunnan Tin will conduct a shutdown maintenance of smelting equipment for no more than 45 days starting from August 30 [1] - China's refined tin production (inventory) in August decreases (increases) month - on - month [1] - Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by corruption investigations, which may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, but its September exports may decrease month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's refined tin imports (exports) in September [1] - The refined tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - China's tin ingot social inventory decreases compared with last week [1] - The refined tin inventory in the London Metal Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - The total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory increases compared with last week [1] Demand - side - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding tape decreases month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in September [1] - China's welding tape imports (exports) in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [1] - China's tin - plated sheet production (imports, exports) in September may decrease month - on - month [1] - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate declines compared with last week [1] Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures** - On September 3, 2025, the closing price was 273,980, down 860 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,585 lots, up 1,086 from the previous day; the open interest was 34,947 lots, down 948 from the previous day; the inventory was 7,263 tons, up 144 from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai tin basis was - 480, up 460 from the previous day; the difference between the near - month and the first - continued contract was - 320, down 100 from the previous day; the difference between the first - continued and the second - continued contract was - 200, down 110 from the previous day; the difference between the second - continued and the third - continued contract was 60, up 110 from the previous day [1] - **London Tin Futures** - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures was 34,620, down 115 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87, down 53.01 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 242, down 59 from the previous day [1] - The global inventory of LME tin was 2,195 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the registered warrants were 1,985, unchanged from the previous day; the cancelled warrants were 210, unchanged from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai to London tin prices was 7.89, unchanged from the previous day [1]