1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at MA10 [3]. - On the macro - front, Trump claims productive dialogue with Iran, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure and negotiating a broader agreement. On the fundamental side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, the supply shortage is showing signs of alleviation, the production of refined tin will gradually recover but may be affected, the import pressure is increasing, the demand in the AI field is strong, the spot premium is high, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is warming, and the inventory is decreasing significantly while LME inventory is increasing and the spot premium is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 347,970 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,500 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,660 US dollars/ton; the main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 21,087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,897 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 6,796 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 268 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,805 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 635 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 tons [3]. - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,552 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 426 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,250 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,250 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,230 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 266 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31 US dollars/ton [3]. - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 17,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 325,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 329,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 757.7 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,700 yuan/ton; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 145,500 tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump claims a "strong" dialogue with Iran, forming key points of an agreement and suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, while Iran denies the dialogue [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase, and aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a 35% year - on - year increase [3]. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the negotiation with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates but still retaining the space for rate cuts this year; Milan thinks rate hikes may be needed in case of second - round inflation effects and wage increases; Daly believes excessive forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty and still expects four rate cuts in 2026 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase as Myanmar's production resumes and the rainy season ends, with a slight rebound in tin ore processing fees and signs of relief in the tight supply situation. Refined tin production will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but low raw material inventories in most enterprises and losses in some external mining capacities will affect refined tin output. Indonesia's tin exports are increasing, and the import window is gradually opening, increasing import pressure. The development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have declined, and holders have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with a spot premium of over 2,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the range of 355,000 - 360,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,110 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract for Shanghai tin is 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 46,850 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 960 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 30,797 lots, a decrease of 903 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 9,623 lots, a decrease of 331 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 460 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 11,312 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 369,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,850 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 368,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,820 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,060 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 203 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 112 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 353,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 357,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,850 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, cultivating and expanding new driving forces, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, improving people's livelihood, promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development, accelerating the comprehensive green transformation, and strengthening fiscal scientific management. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, and promoting the digital and intelligent transformation of central enterprises. From January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1,654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry. The "Fed Whisperer" indicates that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors. US President Trump requests to postpone the China - US summit due to the Iran war [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai tin price will experience a short - term weak adjustment, breaking below the MA60 support level, and suggests paying attention to the 355,000 yuan/ton position. The main reasons include the complex macro - situation and the current state of supply and demand in the tin market. On the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the import pressure is rising. On the demand side, although the development of the AI field is expected to drive the demand for solder, the current downstream demand is weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin showed a weak decline. The weekly price change was - 4.97%, and the amplitude was 9.26%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 374,110 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with multiple drone attacks in Dubai and oil prices breaking through $100 per barrel. - **Fundamental - aspect**: On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to lead to a continued increase in domestic tin ore imports. The processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and some external - mined ore production capacities are at a loss, which will affect the output of refined tin. In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, the development of the AI field has strong prospects, which will significantly drive the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has declined, but the downstream sentiment is weak, and the procurement demand is flat due to the fear of price drops. The inventory has increased again, and the spot premium is 1,750 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted. - **Technical - aspect**: The position remains stable with a weak adjustment, and both long and short positions are trading cautiously [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Spot Premium**: This week, the futures price has declined, and the spot premium has increased. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 374,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,530 yuan/ton or 4.48% compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was $49,230 per ton, a decrease of $175 per ton or 0.35% compared to March 6 [11]. - **Ratio of Tin to Nickel and Shanghai - London Ratio**: As of March 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.8, an increase of 0.09 compared to March 6. As of March 12, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.96, an increase of 0.06 compared to March 3 [17]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of March 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 11,597 lots, a decrease of 788 lots compared to March 9, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 87,355 lots, a decrease of 3,777 lots or 4.14% compared to March 6 [21]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Output**: In December 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of tin ore and concentrates was 135,733.29 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27][28]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On March 13, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 14.29% compared to March 12, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton or 10.34% compared to March 12, 2026 [33]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of March 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 3,560.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,942.16 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,547.75 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 2,763.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [38][39]. - **Inventory**: As of March 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 8,630 tons, an increase of 855 tons or 11% compared to March 5. As of March 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons or 7.3% compared to last week. As of March 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 12,273 tons, an increase of 2,026 tons or 19.77% compared to March 6 [42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On March 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,643.17, a decrease of 178.59 or 2.28% compared to March 5. From January to December 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 million pieces, an increase of 3,285,651.6 million pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [45]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of January 2026, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, the same as in December 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Tin - The short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious. There is still a long - term bullish logic for tin prices, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [3] Copper - In the short - term, due to multiple factors, copper prices are oscillating around 100,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the center of copper prices is expected to rise. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [5] Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. The price downside space may be limited without significant recession risks at the macro level. However, if the downstream production resumption in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the upside space [7] Industrial Silicon - The cost increase may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. In March, supply and demand are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the production and sales recovery and cost fluctuations [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is currently oversupplied, but the low - cost photovoltaic power may be beneficial to the long - term development of photovoltaic demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [10] Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [11] Nickel - The overseas macro uncertainty increases, and the raw material end contradictions support the price. The demand has improved slightly, but high inventory restricts the price increase. The disk is expected to oscillate strongly [12] Stainless Steel - The overseas macro risk uncertainty increases, the raw material end is tight, and the cost supports the price. The supply and demand are in a continuous game, and the short - term is expected to oscillate and adjust [16] Lithium Carbonate - The macro risk persists, and the fundamentals maintain resilience but lack strong drivers. The disk is expected to oscillate widely around the macro expectations, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [19] Aluminum Alloy - The short - term market will continue to oscillate in the context of weak supply and demand. The key turning points of the market lie in the downstream production resumption rhythm, order recovery, and scrap aluminum circulation improvement [21] Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - The price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 394,000 yuan/ton, down 1,350 yuan or 0.34%. The LME 0 - 3 spread is 400, up 40.00%. The import profit and loss is - 8,294.19 yuan/ton, up 870.91 yuan or 9.50%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1] Fundamental Data - In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, up 16.81% month - on - month. In February, the SMM refined tin output was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [2] Inventory - The SHEF weekly inventory is 11,663 tons, down 4.82%. The social inventory is 13,082 tons, down 0.21%. The SHEF daily warehouse receipt is 12,360 tons, up 23.22%. The LME daily inventory is 8,630 tons, up 0.29% [3] Copper Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100,670 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spread is 82 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [5] Fundamental Data - In February, the electrolytic copper output was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. In December, the electrolytic copper import volume was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month [5] Inventory - The domestic social inventory is 57.39 million tons, down 0.57%. The bonded area inventory is 0 million tons, down 100%. The SHFE inventory is 42.51 million tons, up 8.59% [5] Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The import profit and loss is - 2,665 yuan/ton, up 82.05 yuan [7] Fundamental Data - In February, the refined zinc output was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month [7] Inventory - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory is 26.88 million tons, up 4.88%. The LME inventory is 0.02 million tons, down 0.15% [7] Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of South China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% month - on - month. The national operating rate is 38.02%, down 21.33% month - on - month [9] Inventory - The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory is 13.98 million tons, up 0.58%. The social inventory is 55.20 million tons, down 0.18% [9] Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,000 yuan/ton, down 2.65%. The主力 contract price is 42,760 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [10] Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output is 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%. The monthly polysilicon output is 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% [10] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory is 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%. The silicon wafer inventory is 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [10] Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 0.92%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 3,974 yuan/ton, down 3368 yuan [11] Fundamental Data - In February, the alumina output was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% month - on - month [11] Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.40 million tons, up 3.03%. The LME inventory is 44.7 million tons, down 0.63% [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 140,950 yuan/ton, up 0.86%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 144,350 yuan/ton, up 0.80% [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 32,600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, up 84.63% [12] Inventory - The SHFE inventory is 61,769 tons, up 1.61%. The social inventory is 84,537 tons, up 10.45%. The LME inventory is 286,248 tons, down 0.29% [12] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 companies) is 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume is 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [16] Inventory - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 53.21 million tons, down 1.19%. The SHFE warehouse receipt is 5.13 million tons, down 0.34% [16] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [19] Fundamental Data - In February, the lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [19] Inventory - The lithium carbonate total inventory in February was 28,323 tons, down 4.76%. The lithium carbonate downstream inventory was 39,997 tons, down 5.01% [19] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25,200 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The Foshan crushed raw aluminum refined - scrap spread is 3,066 yuan/ton, up 11.45% [21] Fundamental Data - In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [21] Inventory - The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 3.91 million tons, down 5.56%. The recycled aluminum alloy factory finished product inventory is 13.60 million tons, down 8.11% [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton. In the long term, tin prices maintain an upward trend under a macro - loose background, but attention should be paid to the short - term marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and risks brought by geopolitical conflicts [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical volume of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The export scale in Myanmar in February was still at a relatively high level [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and recovered slowly after the festival. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tin spot prices fluctuate with futures, and the premium and discount remain stable [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuates around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates has rebounded again. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan has increased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, indicating a marginal alleviation of the tin ore shortage [24][27] 3.4 Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; in February, the output of recycled tin was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 3.5 Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December 2025, the output of PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones in December was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% in 2025, while the performance of others was relatively average, with air conditioners increasing by 0.7% year - on - year, refrigerators increasing by 1.6% year - on - year, and color TVs decreasing by 2.6% year - on - year. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. Tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year. In 2025, PVC output increased slightly year - on - year. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52][59][62] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared with the same period last month [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - This week, the tin price rose significantly due to supply - side disturbances. Although the emerging fields such as AI servers have optimistic demand for tin, the industry is still in the post - holiday resumption transition period, and the real demand has not been effectively reflected. Considering the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. In the short term, the tin price is expected to operate in a wide range at a high level. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical quantity of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from different regions had different changes [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and the recovery after the festival was slow. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the spot price of tin fluctuated with the futures, and the premium and discount remained stable [19] 3. Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuated around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates rebounded from a low level. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the marginal alleviation of tin ore shortage [24][27] 4. Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the output of recycled tin was 3,320 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 5. Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December, the output of domestic PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.8% in the first 12 months. Other products performed relatively average. The cumulative year - on - year increase of air conditioners was 0.7%, that of refrigerators was 1.6%, and that of color TVs decreased by 2.6%. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. In the tin - consumption fields, the tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, and the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in 2025. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with the previous Friday [67]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company: 东方钽业 (Eastern Tantalum Industry) Key Points - **Resource Price Surge**: The suspension of operations at the Lubaaya mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has catalyzed a significant increase in tantalum prices, which have risen over 60% this year. Tantalum concentrate prices have reached $160-165 per pound, marking a new high for this century, although still below the historical peak of $350 per pound [1][1][1]. - **Production Expansion and Profit Growth**: The company is steadily advancing its technical upgrades in tantalum, niobium, and tin mining, which, combined with price increases, are expected to significantly enhance mine profits. Projected profits for 2022 are estimated at 2.2 billion [1][1][1]. - **Production Capacity**: The controlling shareholder, Taboca, operates mines with an annual refined tin production of 6,000 tons and tantalum-niobium alloy production of 4,500 tons. Plans are in place to expand tin production from 6,000 to 8,000 tons and tantalum-niobium alloy production from 4,500 to 10,000 tons [1][1][1]. - **Price Increase Projections**: The price of tin is expected to rise from 250,000 to 350,000 in 2026, while tantalum-niobium alloy prices are projected to increase from 180,000 to 280,000. The company has committed 540 million to procure 3,000 tons of tantalum-niobium alloy [1][1][1]. - **Profit Distribution Estimates**: Based on revenue share, tantalum and niobium profits are estimated at 900 million, while tin profits are projected at 1.6 billion [1][1][1]. Industry: Tantalum and Niobium Key Points - **Long-term Profit Outlook**: The long-term profit forecast for tantalum and niobium is projected at 1.2 billion for 2022, with production expansion contributing an additional 1.1 billion and price increases adding 10 billion [2][2][2]. - **Tin Profit Projections**: The long-term profit outlook for tin is estimated at 1 billion, with production expansion contributing 500 million and price increases adding 800 million [2][2][2]. - **Market Valuation Estimates**: By 2028, the main business is expected to generate 1 billion in profits, with mining contributing 2.2 billion, leading to a projected market valuation of 640 billion, indicating a potential upside of 150% [2][2][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that tin prices will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should focus on the price range of 400,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 414,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,980 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai Tin is down 600 yuan, a decrease of 220 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 53,915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3,615 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 12,801 lots, a decrease of 5,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 7,318 lots, a decrease of 514 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,680 tons, an increase of 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin is 11,556 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 414,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 415,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 11,310 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 14,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,790 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 20 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 400,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 404,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 262,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,020 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 152,870 tons, an increase of 13,870 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to promote the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures; Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Germany in various fields; the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month - on - month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year - on - year [3] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing, but the refined tin output is still restricted. After the Spring Festival, there is pressure for output to rebound. On the import side, the export volume of Indonesian tin has increased, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises are on holiday, with weak procurement willingness, and the spot market has the situation of "price but no market" [3] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The position increases and the price rebounds, and the bullish sentiment is relatively strong [3]

Core Insights - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported that the country's refined tin exports in January reached 2,653.67 tons, marking an increase of nearly 70% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The refined tin export volume for Indonesia in January was 2,653.67 tons [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for refined tin exports was nearly 70% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of tin are both weak, but the demand is greatly affected by the holiday. Domestic inventory is expected to rise, and the rebound of tin is weak, possibly continuing to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the ore end is relatively slow, and the domestic tin ore supply remains tight in the short term, with processing fees at a low level [2] - As of the week of February 9, the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2] 3.2 Supply - In January, the refined tin output was 15,100 tons, lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. The raw material inventory of smelters is generally less than 30 days. The operating rate of domestic mainstream smelting enterprises remains high, but some enterprises have gradually reduced their loads or arranged maintenance due to holiday factors. The resumption of work of smelters from late February to early March may be relatively slow [3] - In December, China's refined tin import volume was 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. In December, China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur losses [3] - On January 21, 2026, Indonesia began to export tin ingots. In January, it exported 2,670 tons of tin ingots. With the subsequent quota gradually issued, the export volume will increase month - on - month, but limited by the quota ceiling of 60,000 tons, the annual supply may increase moderately [3] 3.3 Consumption - Recently, as tin prices fell, most downstream enterprises entered the market to replenish stocks, which may lead to a decline in social inventory. Last week, spot trading was relatively active, and some downstream enterprises entered the market for rigid - demand replenishment as the price dropped. However, the stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [4] 3.4 Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,718 tons to 8,750 tons. As of January 23, the social inventory in three places monitored by SMM was 9,898 tons, ending a three - consecutive - increase trend. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin was 356,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66,970 yuan, a decline of 15.81%. The basis of Yangtze River spot to the main tin contract fluctuated, and the basis was at a discount of 3,710 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 LME Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the weekly inventory of LME tin decreased by 10 tons to 7,085 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot discount of LME tin narrowed, and the discount was 157 US dollars last weekend [4] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas tin inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot is deeply discounted, and the supply - demand situation of overseas tin has not changed much. In December, the domestic tin ore import volume increased month - on - month, but the import of tin concentrate from Myanmar decreased month - on - month. The recovery process of Myanmar's tin mines is slow, and the domestic ore import volume is still difficult to effectively supplement. The short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore has limited marginal improvement, and the domestic tin ore processing fee remains at a low level [5] - Affected by raw material shortages and the holiday, the output in February declined. In December, both the import and export of domestic refined tin increased month - on - month, and there was a net export in the month. Currently, the price ratio is oscillating downward, and the loss of tin imports has intensified. Indonesia's export volume increased year - on - year in January, and the quota in 2026 increased slightly. The future export volume may increase moderately [5] - The stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [5]