供给扰动带动锡价大幅 上涨 锡周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：春节云南地区冶炼厂开工率下降，节后恢复偏慢。江西地区仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体 来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以持稳为主。 ◆ 需求端：需求方面，节后下游陆续复工，询价挂单意愿较低，客户观望情绪较为浓厚，成交以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现较淡。库存方面， 本周全球 ...

刚果金鲁巴亚矿区停产催化钽价上行，年内涨幅60%+。 参考阿格斯金属网，钽精矿已升至160-165美元/磅，刷新本世纪新高，但距离350美元的历史高点仍有明显距离。 东方钽业：资源溢价/产能扩张双击，目标市值640e，看150%空间 刚果金鲁巴亚矿区停产催化钽价上行，年内涨幅60%+。 参考阿格斯金属网，钽精矿已升至160-165美元/磅，刷新本世纪新高，但距离350美元的历史高点仍有明显距离。 集团钽铌锡矿技改稳步推进，扩产+涨价显著增厚矿山利润，远期利润22e。 实控人Taboca旗下矿山年产精炼锡6000 东方钽业：资源溢价/产能扩张双击，目标市值640e，看150%空间 扩产增厚0.5e（1.6e*0.3倍扩产），涨价10w增厚8e（10w*8000吨） 空间测算：2028年主业10e+矿22e，20Xpe，对应市值640e，空间150%。 钽铌：远期利润看12e。 扩产增厚1.1e（0.9e*1.2倍扩产），涨价60%增厚10e（10w*1万吨） 锡：远期利润看10e。 集团钽铌锡矿技改稳步推进，扩产+涨价显著增厚矿山利润，远期利润22e。 实控人Taboca旗下矿山年产精炼锡6000吨、钽铌铁合金 ...

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2026-02-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 414180 | -1980 4月-5月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -600 | -220 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 53915 | 3615 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 12801 | -5545 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -7318 | -514 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7680 | 25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 11014 | 2264 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 11556 | -182 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 414900 | 13400 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 415360 | 11310 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差 ...

（文华综合） 2月25日（周三），印尼贸易部公布的数据显示，印尼1月精炼锡出口量为2,653.67吨，较去年同期增长 近70%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of tin are both weak, but the demand is greatly affected by the holiday. Domestic inventory is expected to rise, and the rebound of tin is weak, possibly continuing to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the ore end is relatively slow, and the domestic tin ore supply remains tight in the short term, with processing fees at a low level [2] - As of the week of February 9, the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2] 3.2 Supply - In January, the refined tin output was 15,100 tons, lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. The raw material inventory of smelters is generally less than 30 days. The operating rate of domestic mainstream smelting enterprises remains high, but some enterprises have gradually reduced their loads or arranged maintenance due to holiday factors. The resumption of work of smelters from late February to early March may be relatively slow [3] - In December, China's refined tin import volume was 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. In December, China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur losses [3] - On January 21, 2026, Indonesia began to export tin ingots. In January, it exported 2,670 tons of tin ingots. With the subsequent quota gradually issued, the export volume will increase month - on - month, but limited by the quota ceiling of 60,000 tons, the annual supply may increase moderately [3] 3.3 Consumption - Recently, as tin prices fell, most downstream enterprises entered the market to replenish stocks, which may lead to a decline in social inventory. Last week, spot trading was relatively active, and some downstream enterprises entered the market for rigid - demand replenishment as the price dropped. However, the stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [4] 3.4 Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,718 tons to 8,750 tons. As of January 23, the social inventory in three places monitored by SMM was 9,898 tons, ending a three - consecutive - increase trend. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin was 356,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66,970 yuan, a decline of 15.81%. The basis of Yangtze River spot to the main tin contract fluctuated, and the basis was at a discount of 3,710 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 LME Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the weekly inventory of LME tin decreased by 10 tons to 7,085 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot discount of LME tin narrowed, and the discount was 157 US dollars last weekend [4] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas tin inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot is deeply discounted, and the supply - demand situation of overseas tin has not changed much. In December, the domestic tin ore import volume increased month - on - month, but the import of tin concentrate from Myanmar decreased month - on - month. The recovery process of Myanmar's tin mines is slow, and the domestic ore import volume is still difficult to effectively supplement. The short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore has limited marginal improvement, and the domestic tin ore processing fee remains at a low level [5] - Affected by raw material shortages and the holiday, the output in February declined. In December, both the import and export of domestic refined tin increased month - on - month, and there was a net export in the month. Currently, the price ratio is oscillating downward, and the loss of tin imports has intensified. Indonesia's export volume increased year - on - year in January, and the quota in 2026 increased slightly. The future export volume may increase moderately [5] - The stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in the CBPI indicates a continued recovery and positive market sentiment, supported by national strategic policies and optimistic business expectations [1][2] - The rise in prices is influenced by international geopolitical changes, expectations of loose monetary policy, and significant fluctuations in commodity futures prices, leading to rapid increases in prices of non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous price index saw a substantial increase, while the chemical price index also rose quickly; the black series price index continued to recover, and agricultural product prices increased slightly [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) experienced price increases, while 17 (34%) saw price declines in January [1] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel; the top three with the largest declines were corrugated paper, caustic soda, and coke [1]

Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for January reached 125.3 points, marking a 6.3% month-on-month increase and the highest level in three and a half years [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [1] - The price indices for non-ferrous metals and chemical products rose significantly, increasing by 9.9% and 3.8% month-on-month, influenced by factors such as international monetary policy and geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper's strategic importance as a key mineral for energy transition is being reinforced, with limited supply growth expected due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure [2] - Continuous expansion in demand from sectors like grid upgrades and electric vehicles is maintaining a tight balance in copper supply and demand [2] - Both China and the U.S. are advancing their copper resource reserve systems, highlighting copper's critical role in manufacturing and energy security [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge Nonferrous Metal Industry Theme ETF has seen a cumulative increase of 119.91% over the past year as of February 4, 2026 [3] - The fund's unit net value was 2.31 yuan, with a monthly increase of 15.06% [3] - The ETF has demonstrated strong historical performance, with a maximum monthly return of 20.81% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 6 months [3] Group 4: Fund Overview - The Huatai-PineBridge Nonferrous Metal Industry Theme ETF was established on November 28, 2023, and aims to minimize tracking deviation and error by closely following the underlying index [4] - The fund manager, Dong Jin, has 15.6 years of experience and has achieved a return of 91.63% since taking over on March 21, 2025 [4] - The fund's flexible mechanism of waiving subscription fees is particularly beneficial in the volatile non-ferrous metal sector, allowing investors to capture gains without incurring additional costs [4]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月5日电（记者刘玉龙） 5日，由中物联大宗商品流通分会和上海钢联等单位联合调查，中国物流与采购联合会发布的2026年1月份中国大宗 商品价格指数（CBPI）为125.3点，环比上涨6.3%，同比上涨12.7%，创2022年7月以来新高。 业内人士分析认为，"两重""两新"政策加力扩围，"反内卷"政策不断深化，提振市场信心，企业预期保持乐观，生产活动延续扩张态势，为"十五五"开局奠 定良好基础。但同时也要看到，国际地缘政治深刻演变、全球货币政策宽松预期以及国际大宗商品期货价格剧烈波动，带动国内有色、化工等价格快速上 涨，亦对国内大宗商品市场带来多重挑战。 图为中国 大宗商品价格指数和CPI、PPI走势 1月份，农产品价格指数小幅走高，报98.3点，环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨5.7%。山东隆众分析师王立晨表示，临近春节，部分农产品品种下游备货需求上 升，价格小幅上行。 | 表为1月份中国大宗商品价格指数及分项指数对比 | | --- | | 项目 | 中国大宗商品 | 能源价格 化工价格 | | 黑色价格 | 有色价格 | | 矿产价格 农产品价格 | | --- | --- | - ...