策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.11.25） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：震荡 中期观点：震荡 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 宏观方面，美联储官员关于降息的看法存分歧。受美联储官员鸽派言 论影响，12 月美联储降息概率再次上升。 供给方面，全球铜精矿供应格局持续偏紧，但远期供应压力因格拉斯 伯格铜矿重启计划而有望缓解。国内冶炼企业因加工费（TC）深度倒挂而 陷入严重亏损，导致部分炼厂检修，精炼铜产量受限。欧洲电解铜溢价创 纪录高位后回落至 120 美元/吨，暗示海外供应趋紧的格局仍然持续。 需求方面，国内铜材开工率有所回升，出口表现强劲，但内需仍显分 化。空调行业排产大幅下滑，传统消费领域疲软；而新能源汽车销量保持 高增长，成为用铜需求的重要支撑。高铜价对下游采购情绪形成抑制，企 业多以按需采购为主，观望情绪较浓。 库存方面，全球显性库存呈现分化态势。LME 库存同比下降 43%，但近 期有所累积；COMEX 库存则同比增长 3.5 倍，反映库存向美国转移的趋势。 国内上期所仓单虽处低位，但整体库存压力有限。 展望后市，铜市多空因素交织。美联储预期提振铜价，但不确定 ...

数据来源：海关总署 （文华综合） 据中国海关数据统计，中国2025年10月精炼锡进口量为526.12吨，环比下降58.55%，同比减少82.75%。 受印尼打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah的影响，10月印尼锡锭出口显著减少，导致 中国进口规模锐减。 ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年10月精炼锡进口量为526.12吨，环比下降 58.55%，同比减少82.75%。 玻利维亚是第一大进口来源地，当月从玻利维亚进口精炼锡198.27吨，环比减少0.28%。 秘鲁是第二大进口来源地，当月从秘鲁进口精炼锡175.00吨，环比下降41.75%，同比减少61.10%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月精炼锡进口分项数据一览表： 2、进口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据。 数据来源：海关总署 注：1、精炼锡包括未锻轧的非合金锡（精锡）。 | 原产地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻利维亚 | 198.27 | -0.28% | -- | | 秘鲁 | 175.00 | -41.75% | -61.10% | | 印度尼西亚 | 124.90 | -81.53% | -94.17% | | 中国 | 11.01 | -44.68% | | | 表国 | 10.00 | -- | -93.75% | | 新加坡 | 4.24 | 6.00% ...

世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球原铝产量为601.63万吨，消费量为 620.84万吨，供应短缺19.21万吨。2025年1-9月，全球原铝产量为5454.99万吨，消费量为5583.53万吨， 供应短缺128.54万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球锌板产量为119.35万吨，消费量为 122.92万吨，供应短缺3.57万吨。2025年1-9月，全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨，消费量为1073.69万吨， 供应短缺37.37万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼铅产量为113.79万吨，消费量 为0.48万吨，供应过剩113.31万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼铅产量为1006.41万吨，消费量为912.27万 吨，供应过剩94.14万吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼锡产量为3.25万吨，消费量为 2.76万吨，供应过剩0.49万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼锡产量为26.02万吨，消费量为26.95万吨，供应 短缺0.92 ...

2025年1-9月，全球锡矿产量为22.31万吨。 （文华综合） 11月19日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼锡产量为 3.25万吨，消费量为2.76万吨，供应过剩0.49万吨。 2025年1-9月，全球精炼锡产量为26.02万吨，消费量为26.95万吨，供应短缺0.92万吨。 2025年9月，全球锡矿产量为2.72万吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be affected by the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices. Zinc prices are likely to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with overseas supply being tight and domestic production cuts and demand off - season coexisting. Industrial silicon is expected to run at a high level, and polysilicon's supply - demand pattern will improve with the implementation of new energy - consumption standards. Refined tin prices will remain high due to tight global supply, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the supply - demand balance in 2026 [1][3][4][5][6][9][10][12][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US government shutdown ended, and Fed officials made hawkish remarks. Supply - wise, global copper supply is tight, with an increase in domestic port inventory and a rise in copper concentrate TC. Demand - side, the开工 rate of copper rod enterprises declined in October, and copper rod production decreased. Copper bar demand is weak. Inventory shows regional differentiation, with LME and SHFE inventories low and COMEX inventory increasing significantly [1][2]. - **Outlook**: Negative factors such as the cooling of the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices will affect copper prices [3]. Zinc - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday and mid - term views are both "oscillation", with an oscillation operation strategy and a suggestion to sell a wide - straddle option combination [4]. - **Core Logic**: Macroeconomically, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is divided, and the US government shutdown risk is alleviated. Supply - wise, global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with overseas production differentiation and domestic supply also showing signs of tightness. Demand shows an "external strong, internal weak" pattern. Inventory is differentiated, with LME zinc inventory at a historical low and SHFE zinc inventory increasing [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upside in the domestic market is limited due to weak demand [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 9000 - 9100, and mid - term view is "range operation" in the range of 8800 - 9300, with a bullish strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production decreased year - on - year. Demand from polysilicon increased. Inventory is at a 7 - year high, but the strong polysilicon price boosts industrial silicon prices [6]. Polysilicon - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 52,500 - 54,000, and mid - term view is "range fluctuation" in the range of 50,000 - 60,000, with a bullish strategy [7]. - **Core Logic**: In October, production increased year - on - year. Demand from silicon wafers increased significantly. Inventory is stable. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [7][9]. Refined Tin - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "high - level operation" in the range of 290,000 - 295,000, and mid - term view is "high - level oscillation" in the range of 270,000 - 300,000, with a strategy to sell SN2512 - P - 250000 [10]. - **Core Logic**: Global tin supply is tight due to the complex resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Processing fees are at a low level, indicating tight domestic supply. Inventory is at a certain level, and the ore end supports tin prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is "strong operation" in the range of 94,000 - 98,000, and mid - term view is "oscillation and upward" in the range of 80,000 - 100,000, with a bullish strategy [11][12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price has reached a new high. In October, production increased year - on - year, and inventory is still high. However, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve in 2026, which will drive up prices [12][13].

沪锡产业日报 2025-11-17 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 290360 | -1090 12月-1月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -560 | -110 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 36860 | -205 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 31904 | -4437 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -636 | 305 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3065 | 10 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6258 | 266 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 115 | 25 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6099 | 167 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 289900 | -2200 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 290090 | -2950 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元 ...

需求端，中长期增长动能更显强劲。五矿证券研报显示，相比传统服务器，AI服务器的单位耗锡量显 著提升，预计2025年至2030年全球AI服务器耗锡需求年均增速或高达44.5%。在锡矿新增供给有限的背 景下，AI与机器人产业、光伏、新能源车等领域的刚性需求，将为锡价提供长期支撑。 治理改革成为关键变量 尽管出口表现亮眼，但供应链透明度缺失、非法采矿猖獗、手工矿监管缺位等深层次治理难题，仍是制 约印尼锡业国际竞争力的主要瓶颈。业内共识明确：治理体系改革的成效，将直接决定印尼锡产业的长 远竞争力。 新华财经雅加达11月15日电（记者冯钰林）国际锡价回暖叠加国内产能恢复，共同推高印尼第三季度锡 出口。然而，深层治理顽疾依然制约着这个全球关键锡生产国的产业竞争力。近期数据与政策动向显 示，印尼锡产业正处于价格利好与治理重塑的关键调整窗口期。 价格回暖与供应释放促进复苏 印尼锡出口商协会（AETI）数据显示，今年1月至9月印尼累计出口精炼锡3.76万吨，达政府年度出口 配额的68%；第三季度印尼锡出口额增长25.8%，达到11.6亿美元。AETI主席阿迪蒂奥·德万托指出，国 际锡价持续走高是出口改善的主要动力。 9月底，印 ...

数据来源：印尼贸易部 印尼贸易部公布的数据显示，印尼10月出口2,643.05吨精炼锡，较去年同期减少53.89%，环比下降 46%。受印尼打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah的影响，10月印尼锡锭出口显著减 少。 ...

11月11日（周二），印尼贸易部周二公布的数据显示，印尼10月出口了2,643.05吨精炼锡，较去年同期 减少53.89%。 ...