供给延续偏紧，关注 缅甸复产进展 锡月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：尽管近期缅甸佤邦地区矿产开采证已审批完毕，但复产进度偏慢，预计四季度锡矿供应才能得到显著恢复。根据中国海关公布的数 据，2025年8月我国进口锡精矿实物量达10267吨，较上月持平。自刚果（金）、俄罗斯、玻利维亚等国进口锡精矿量级有所下滑，但整体量 级处于正常水平，仅为船期等运输因素影响。自缅甸进口锡矿量有所回升，随着采矿证审批通过，短期供应有改善迹象。自其他地区及国家 进口锡矿量级保持往期水平。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，11月前难以放量，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，叠加9月某大型冶炼企业开启检修，导致 本周云南地区开工率大幅下滑；江西地区则因废料显著 ...

（文华综合） 9月排产稳中有升，当月虽然处于下游的旺季阶段，但从当前情况来看，9月实际消费水平或将较往年下 滑，大部分企业依旧维持观望情况，整体订单水平较8月维持平稳。电子行业由于AI、人形机器人等热 潮或将增加锡焊料的使用量，但整体行业仍处于发展初期，增量需求较为有限，所在的消费领域或将稳 步增长。产业基本以销定产，且经过8月末和9月中的锡价回调后的补库，大部分下游仓库水平逐步回 暖。9月光伏排产维持平稳。总的来看，9月下游锡焊料企业的产量和开工率预期或将小幅回暖。 对于后市，新湖期货评论表示，价格重心回落有利于消费改善。目前终端市场略有回暖迹象，但表现仍 不明显。虽然汽车市场率先回暖，但其他市场总体仍偏弱。不过由于近期龙头企业检修，供应降至相对 低位，国内库存明显去化，这基于锡价下方较强支撑。海外市场近期虽有所累库，但总体仍处于低位。 后期随着消费回升，锡价有望再度反弹。 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约收涨1.5%，报272510元/吨。上周锡价连续回落，现货市场交投略有改善，下 游逢低有补货行为，锡锭社会库存去库明显。基本面供需双弱，缅甸锡矿复产进度缓慢，制约原料供 应，锡下游需求处于从淡季向旺季过度阶段，关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic and international macro - optimistic expectations and partial refining tin capacity maintenance support tin prices. The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the decline in domestic tin ingot social inventory may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels [3][4]. - For spreads and inventory, due to factors such as the weakening employment supply - demand in the US and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin, as well as the spreads of LME tin contracts, are within a reasonable range, and investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased compared with last week [10][11][15]. - In terms of supply, the domestic tin ore supply is expected to be tight, the production of recycled tin in September may decrease month - on - month, the production capacity utilization rate of refined tin has declined, and the import volume of refined tin may decrease month - on - month [21][25][30]. - In terms of demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tin solder may increase month - on - month, the import volume of solder strips may decrease month - on - month while the export volume may increase, and the production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets may all decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries has slightly decreased [36][37][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai tin are negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10][11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China has increased, the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has increased [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [21]. - The second beneficiation plant of the Uis mine in Namibia has been commissioned, and tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are resuming production. Alphamin Resources' tin mine in Congo is also resuming production in stages. These factors may lead to an increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [23]. - The production of recycled tin in China in September may decrease month - on - month [25]. - The production capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat). Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment, resulting in a decrease in the production of refined tin in China in September and an increase in inventory [29]. - The export volume of Indonesia in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in the import volume and a decrease in the export volume of refined tin in China in September [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to an increase in the production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in the inventory of tin solder in China in September [36]. - The import volume of solder strips in China in September may decrease month - on - month, while the export volume may increase [37]. - The production, import, and export volumes of tin - plated sheets in China in September may all decrease month - on - month [42]. - The production capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has slightly decreased compared with last week [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut in September and the time needed for the full resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, along with weak downstream demand in sectors like home appliances and solders, may cause Shanghai tin prices to weaken first and then strengthen. Investors are advised to buy on price dips, with attention on support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to weak domestic demand in sectors such as home appliances and solder materials. Given the expected Fed rate cut in September, partial production suspension for maintenance of domestic refined tin capacity, and the decline in domestic refined tin social inventory, investors are recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position arbitrage opportunities by going long on the Shanghai tin basis at low prices [6]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, along with the Shanghai - London tin price ratio slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years, are due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is suggested to temporarily watch the arbitrage opportunities of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side - **Tin Ore**: Namibia's Uis mine's second concentrator started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons. In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines will resume production after paying fees, with an initial increment of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [2][20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in September may decrease month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and an increase in inventory in September. Indonesia's export volume in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports and a decrease in exports [2][27][31]. Demand - side - **Tin Solder**: China's tin solder capacity utilization rate in September may increase month - on - month, while inventory may decrease [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Welding Tape**: China's photovoltaic welding tape imports in September may decrease month - on - month, and exports may increase [39][41]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in September may all decrease month - on - month [43][45]. - **Integrated Circuits and Smartphones**: China's integrated circuit and smartphone production in September may increase month - on - month [47][50]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: China's lead - acid battery capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to last week [53][56]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the SHFE has increased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory has decreased; the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased; the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory has increased [12]. Price and Spread - China's tin concentrate price has increased compared to last week, and tin concentrate imports are still profitable. The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has decreased, indicating a tight supply expectation [16]. - The basis of Shanghai tin is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread of (3 - 15) contract is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the end of June, the price of tin in Shanghai has fluctuated between 260,000 and 270,000 CNY per ton, with a significant reduction in trading volume and market attention [1] - The volatility index (VIX) for Shanghai tin options has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a lack of market movement [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing slowly, with actual output expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter due to seasonal rains and other logistical challenges [1] - Tin ore imports in China remain low, with a total of approximately 62,100 tons imported in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [2] - Imports from Africa have increased, compensating for some of the supply gaps from Myanmar, particularly after Alphamin Resources resumed production in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Group 3: Smelting and Production Challenges - Smelting enterprises are operating at low capacity due to tight raw material supplies, with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces at 59.23% as of August 15 [4] - The shortage of tin ore and rising costs have led some smelting companies to consider temporary shutdowns to manage production levels [4] - The recycling of tin scrap has been disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of secondary materials, which is further constraining refined tin production [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Downstream demand for tin is currently weak, with a decline in orders, particularly in the home appliance sector, as the third quarter is typically a low season for consumption [5] - The semiconductor market is experiencing mixed signals, with overall growth but specific segments facing declines due to trade tensions and economic conditions [8][10] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a significant drop in new installations in June, impacting the demand for tin solder used in solar panels [9] Group 5: Price Outlook - The overall market is characterized by weak supply and demand fundamentals, with tin prices expected to continue fluctuating within a limited range [13] - The low inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange (LME) could lead to increased price volatility, necessitating caution against speculative trading [10][13] - In the medium to long term, as Myanmar's tin supply gradually recovers, the tight supply-demand balance may ease, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in tin prices [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US job market, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, but the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, may limit the upside space of Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940, a decrease of 380 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2] - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was 33,700, a decrease of 70 compared to the previous day [2] - The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [1][2] Industry News - According to the data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade for June, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2] - Stellar Resources extended the exclusive period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and focusing on tailings storage solutions [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo - Kinshasa are expected to resume production; domestic refined tin production capacity operating rate has increased; the inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased, while the social inventory in China and the inventory in the London Metal Exchange have decreased [2] - Demand side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August and an increase in inventory; the production volume of China's tin - plated sheets in August may increase [2] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upside potential of Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels around 255,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 278,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, mainly due to the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year, but also the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, and the rising weekly operating capacity of domestic refined tin. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. - The negative spread of LME tin (0 - 3) and positive spread of (3 - 15) are within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years, mainly due to the Trump administration's re-imposition of tariffs on many countries, but also the increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut in the second half of the year and the decrease in LME refined tin inventory compared to last week. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities for the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of 40 - 50 mines in Wa State, Myanmar will resume production after paying fees on July 11 (the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines), and Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo-Kinshasa on April 9, which may lead to a month-on-month increase in the production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in August [21]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [17]. - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in August may increase month-on-month [22]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Jiangxi and Yunnan has increased (remained flat) compared to last week, and the production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in August has increased (increased) month-on-month [28]. - Due to the impact of a corruption investigation on the approval of mining licenses by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance and the possible reduction of medium - to long - term export quotas, and the plan of Indonesian state - owned tin mining company PT Timah to increase tin production and sales in 2025, the export volume in August may increase month-on-month. The continued loss in imports and exports may lead to a month-on-month decrease in the import (export) volume of Chinese refined tin in August [32]. Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese tin solder in August may decrease month-on-month, and the daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strip has decreased month-on-month, which may lead to a decrease (increase) in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in August [33][35]. - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strip in August may decrease (increase) month-on-month [37]. - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tinplate in August may increase (decrease, increase) month-on-month [43]. Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese refined tin has decreased compared to last week [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of Chinese tin ingots has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week; the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared to last week [13]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) is negative and the spread of (3 - 15) is positive, both within a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai-London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and North Kivu, Congo, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are all within a reasonable range. Given the expected increase in production and inventory and the influence of factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations and mine resumptions, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State determined on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental production of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and imports in August [20]. - China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (or remained flat) compared to last week, and China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month [27]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin mining company PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. The export volume in August may increase month - on - month, but due to the loss in imports and exports, China's refined tin imports and exports in August may decrease month - on - month [31]. Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of China's tin solder in August may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month [34]. - China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production and exports in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease month - on - month [42]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai and London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five - year average [8][10]. - China's refined tin social inventory, SHFE refined tin inventory, and the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory have increased compared to last week, while the LME refined tin inventory has decreased [11][13]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has shown a downward trend, indicating a potentially tight supply of domestic tin ore [14][16]. Other - The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid battery has remained flat compared to last week [44][47].