短期宏观氛围积极， 预计锡价震荡运行 锡月报 2026/01/04 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：11月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年11月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为15,099吨，环比增长29.81%，同比 上升24.42%。第一大进口来源地缅甸，当月进口7,190.21吨，环比增加203.79%，同比增加133.38%；第二大进口来源地刚果民主共和国，当 月进口3,225.34吨，环比增长19.45%，同比减少21.27%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产逐步推进，出口量增幅明显，但目前云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，进一步上行动力 不足。江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不足，精锡产量延续偏低水平。综合而言，原料不足的 ...

国内锡焊料企业开工率呈现维稳态势。11月份样本企业锡焊料产量环比增加0.95%，开工率较10月份小 幅上涨0.69%，主要得益于新能源汽车、AI服务器等新兴领域的订单支撑。 分析观点： 数据显示，12月25日上海1#锡锭现货价格报价332750.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格(335880.00元/吨)贴 水3130.0元/吨。 (12月25日)今日全国锡价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云锡牌号:Sn99.90 | 333000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 重庆广晟有色金属材料有限公司 | | 云锡牌号:Sn99.90 | 333000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海/上海市 | 上海普照贸易有限公司 | | 品名:1#锡锭;牌号:Sn99.90; | 332800元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭;牌号:Sn99.90; | 333000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭;牌号:Sn99.90; | ...

大宗周期-有色金属行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 2026 年黄金价格预计将受益于美元信用走弱，美联储降息预期、鲍威 尔卸任后可能出现的政策不确定性，以及美国财政和政治问题，将共同 推动金价上涨，全球央行购金也将形成支撑。 铜市场方面，海外铜矿项目面临资源禀赋降低、政策约束强化等问题， 限制了产能释放。同时，AI 硬件和算力基础设施建设将显著拉动铜需求， 预计铜价仍将处于中枢上行趋势。 电解铝市场，国内产能接近天花板，海外高电价加剧了产能运行的不确 定性。尽管如此，新能源汽车需求的强劲增长以及国内外电解铝库存处 于历史低位，预示着电解铝价格弹性有望进一步放大。 锡市场供应端面临印尼打击非法采矿、缅甸复产缓慢以及刚果（金）战 乱等多重扰动，导致全球锡供应紧张。国内锡矿加工费已触及近五年低 位，AI 产业增长将带动锡焊料需求，预计价格中枢将开启长周期上行趋 势。 碳酸锂市场在 2026 年将延续强劲势头，国内云母矿供应波动风险依然 存在，海外锂资源扩张周期进入中后段。新能源汽车和储能需求的快速 增长将为碳酸锂提供支撑，储能有望成为新的增长极。 Q&A 展望 2026 年，有色金属板块的投资逻辑主要集中在三条 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

需求方面，半导体行业延续景气，国内锡焊料企业开工率呈现维稳态势。11月份样本企业锡焊料产量环比增加0.95%，开工率较10月份小 幅上涨0.69%。 分地区来看，华南地区的锡焊料厂商整体展现出更强韧性，开工水平大体维持稳定。原因在于，当地产业链更深度嵌入汽车、AI服务器 等新兴应用领域，这些下游板块的订单相对充足且预期向好，为生产端带来了较为持续的支撑与成长空间。此外，华南聚集了数量众 多、体量不大但业务链条较完整的灵活型企业，在应对短期需求变化时调整节奏更快，能够更好对冲市场波动的不利影响。与之形成对 比的是，华东地区的锡焊料企业开工情况受压更为明显。该区域的客户结构更偏向传统的消费电子与家电板块，而在11月份，这些传统 行业订单恢复节奏偏慢，"旺季不旺"的格局凸显，导致整体交易情绪偏弱，开工积极性也随之下降。 供给端：10月锡矿进口有所回升，矿端紧缺略有改善 根据海关公布数据，2025年10月国内锡矿进口量有所回升，10月份国内锡矿进口量为1.16万吨（折合约5050金属吨）环比33.49%，同 比-22.54%，较9月份上涨1482金属吨（9月份折合3568金属吨）。1-10月累计进口量为10.3万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity. As of the end of 2024, global tin reserves are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons. The reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from around 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024, indicating a low level of reserves compared to production [2][21] - Global tin supply is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to decreasing ore grades and various unpredictable factors affecting major production areas. China, the largest producer, has seen a decline in domestic production since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations [2][21] - Demand for tin is projected to remain stable or increase, driven by the semiconductor industry and other applications. The global demand for tin is expected to reach 386,000 tons in 2025, with a steady growth forecast through 2027 [2][21] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 16,000 tons. This gap may narrow in subsequent years as production resumes in Myanmar and new projects come online [2][21] - Key companies in the industry include Xiyang Co., Xingye Yinxin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Tin is characterized by its low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications. The global distribution of tin reserves is concentrated in a few countries, with China holding the largest share [2][21] Supply Dynamics - The global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons in recent years, but significant declines are expected due to various factors affecting major production areas, including environmental regulations and resource depletion [2][21] Demand Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is a major driver of tin demand, with a strong correlation to electronic product production. The demand for tin in solder applications is expected to grow, supported by a recovery in semiconductor sales [2][21] Price Trends - Tin prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 46% since early 2024. The average price for tin in 2024 is projected to be 248,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [12][21] Regional Insights - China's tin production has been on a downward trend, with production expected to be 69,000 tons in 2024, down from previous highs. Despite this, China remains the largest producer and holder of tin reserves globally [34][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].

12月3日，沪锡期货主力2601合约日盘高开高走，盘中最高触及31.41万元/吨，涨幅达2.72%，创下2022 年5月以来新高；收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。自今年6月启动上涨行情以来，沪锡主力合约累计 涨幅已攀升至23.3%。 此轮锡价上行主要受矿端供应收缩与宏观预期改善双重驱动。供应端方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度显著 慢于市场预期，当地锡精矿出口量持续处于低位，加剧了市场对原料短缺的担忧；宏观层面，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%（据CME FedWatch工具），宽松政策预期升温对大宗商品整体形 成提振。此外，新兴领域需求的快速增长为锡价提供了坚实支撑。当前锡消费结构中，半导体与消费电 子仍是锡焊料的核心应用场景——作为锡消费占比超65%的主力领域，半导体行业的景气度回升直接拉 动了锡焊料需求。据半导体行业协会（SIA）最新数据，2024年全球半导体销售额达6276亿美元，较 2023年的5268亿美元大幅增长19.1%；机构预测，2025年半导体封装用锡焊料需求增速将进一步攀升至 5%-7%，成为锡价中长期的重要支撑因素。 现货市场同步走强，锡均价站稳30万元/吨关口，W ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent stability of tin prices above 300,000 yuan per ton and the positive performance of companies in the tin industry, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging sectors like semiconductors and consumer electronics [1][5][7]. Tin Price and Market Dynamics - Tin futures reached a three-and-a-half-year high, with the main contract peaking at 314,100 yuan per ton, marking a 2.72% increase [5][18]. - The average spot price of tin on December 3 was 309,700 yuan per ton, up 5,630 yuan from the previous trading day, maintaining above 300,000 yuan for five consecutive days [5][18]. - The rise in tin prices is attributed to tight supply from Myanmar and positive macroeconomic expectations, including a high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [7][20]. Demand Drivers - The demand for tin is primarily driven by the semiconductor industry, which is expected to see a 19.1% increase in global sales in 2024, reaching $627.6 billion [7][20]. - Tin solder demand is projected to grow at a rate of 5% to 7% in 2025, supported by the recovery of the global economy and advancements in new industries [7][20]. Company Performance and Stock Market Reaction - Seven listed companies in the A-share market are involved in the tin industry, with significant investor interest due to rising tin prices [8][21]. - The average stock price increase for tin-related companies this year is 113.08%, with notable gains from companies like Xingye Silver Tin and Shengtun Mining, which saw increases of 226.33% and 160.32%, respectively [8][21]. - In the first three quarters, these companies collectively achieved a net profit of 43.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.47% [9][22]. Individual Company Highlights - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 55.45% year-on-year, with significant tin reserves [9][22][23]. - Xiyang Tin achieved a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.99% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the largest tin producer globally [10][23]. - Institutional interest is high, with Zijin Mining and Xiyang Tin receiving the most ratings from analysts, indicating strong market confidence [10][23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic expectations, with the main contract reaching a new high since May 2022, reflecting a cumulative increase of 23.3% since June 2023 [2][3]. Supply Side - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, particularly due to slow recovery in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines and low export volumes [2]. - The global tin supply is expected to face increasing disruptions, with Southeast Asian tin-producing countries tightening policies, leading to a scarcity of tin resources [3][4]. Demand Side - The demand for tin is primarily driven by emerging sectors, particularly the semiconductor and consumer electronics industries, which are experiencing growth. The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [3]. - Tin solder demand in semiconductor packaging, which accounts for 65% of tin consumption, is expected to grow at a rate of 5% to 7% by 2025 [3]. Market Performance - The average price of tin reached 309,700 yuan/ton on December 3, 2023, marking a 5-day streak above the 300,000 yuan threshold [2]. - Tin concept stocks have seen significant price increases, with an average rise of 113.08% this year. Notable performers include Xingye Silver Tin, Shengtun Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous, with increases of 226.33%, 160.32%, and 118.87% respectively [4]. Financial Performance - Seven listed companies in the tin industry reported a combined net profit of 43.314 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 47.47% [4]. - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, a 55.45% increase year-on-year, with tin reserves totaling 123,200 tons [4][5]. - Xiyang Tin achieved a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, a 35.99% increase year-on-year, maintaining the largest market share in global tin production [5]. Institutional Attention - Five tin concept stocks have received institutional ratings, with Zijin Mining and Xiyang Tin receiving the highest number of ratings at 25 and 17 respectively [5].