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瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that on the supply side, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, supply growth has accelerated. Currently, import losses continue to widen, leading to a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. - On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not significant, and the operating rate of processing enterprises shows a stable upward trend. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. - Technically, positions are stable while prices are rising, with a cautious bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,200 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 20,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,956 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 221,751 lots, a decrease of 1,484 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,939 lots, a decrease of 47 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 51,371 tons, an increase of 5,466 tons. - The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons, an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 50,525 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 30.17 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.67 US dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 144,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.33%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.34%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.05%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The incremental social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and another three times in 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a very small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3].