12月上半月，锌价逐步抬升，矿端边际收紧使得锌矿加工费快速下移，且受锌精矿供应偏紧提振，沪锌 主力合约最高涨至23730元／吨， LME期锌最高涨至3220美元／吨附近。 美联储12月如期降息25个基点，并启动短期国债购买计划，预计通胀将在明年一季度见顶，美元指数偏 弱运行，整体略利多锌价。日本央行本周加息概率较高，可能引发市场情绪变化。上周五夜盘，前期涨 幅较大的白银、铜、铝期价自高位回落，对锌价有所拖累。 锌矿加工费降至低位 相关数据显示，今年1—9月全球锌矿累计产量936.1万吨，增加6万吨，同比增加7.5%。国内11月锌精矿 产量31.14万吨，较10月下滑1.94万吨，同比增加5.2%；1—11月累计产量336.9万吨，同比减少1万吨， 降幅为1.7%。 近期，北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产状态，国产矿供应持续收紧。进口端，我国10月锌矿进口34.1万 吨，环比大降32.5%，同比增长3.3%，内外比价不佳，锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减，进口主要来源 于秘鲁、澳大利亚和俄罗斯；1—10月累计进口434.89万吨，同比增长37.3%。 由于锌矿加工费快速走低，冶炼厂生产压力明显增大。12月以来，仍有部分炼 ...

SHMET 网讯：今年全球锌矿供应出现明显改善，市场此前预期矿端边际转松会向冶炼端传导，供应端 有宽松预期，拖累锌价重心持续下移。然而沪锌在21000一线支撑较强，10月下旬以来期价呈现筑底反 弹姿态，目前徘徊在八个月高位附近，沪锌与预期相反的走势背后其实与前期沪伦比值的不断下行有脱 不开的关系。今年以来期锌沪伦比值发生了怎样的变化？为什么能够间接提振沪锌走势？未来又将如何 运行？ 数据来源：伦敦金属交易所 数据来源：上海期货交易所 而前期沪伦比值的大幅走弱引发了蝴蝶效应，最直接的影响是会令精炼锌和锌精矿进口都无法再维持盈 利状态，甚至陷入亏损局面，国内出口窗口打开，进口动能十分有限。由于进口锌精矿是国内锌矿供应 的重要补充，进口锌精矿进口的减少无疑会迫使国内锌冶炼厂转向采购更多的国产锌精矿，造成国产锌 矿需求明显增加。与此同时，进入第四季度，北方天气转冷，部分矿山陆续进入冬季停产状态，在市场 流通的国产锌精矿产量又有不断下降的预期。因此在进口和国产锌矿供应双双收紧的背景下，国内锌矿 供需愈发紧张，内外锌精矿加工费都出现下降姿态。据Mysteel数据，上周国内主流锌精矿加工费在 1800-2100元/金属吨附 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main futures price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated sideways. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed rebounded to over 80%, and the US dollar declined, which was beneficial for the trend of risk assets [3]. - The import of zinc ore remained unprofitable, leading to a decline in processing fees for both domestic and overseas zinc ores. The profit of smelters was further eroded, and the scale of production cuts and suspensions in December expanded. The supply of refined zinc in December decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - The export window of zinc ingots remained open, alleviating the high - supply pressure in the domestic market. The start - up of primary enterprises maintained off - season characteristics, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate [3]. - LME inventory rose above 50,000 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to decline slowly. The overall fundamentals were balanced, with the weakening of consumption and the cooling of the LME squeeze as negative factors, and the decline in processing fees and zinc ingot exports as supporting factors. It was expected that the zinc price would remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of SHFE zinc rose from 22,395 yuan/ton on November 21 to 22,425 yuan/ton on November 28, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc rose from 2992 dollars/ton to 3051 dollars/ton, an increase of 59 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.48 to 7.35 [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly sideways, with obvious support from the 40 - day moving average below, and the weekly increase was 0.16%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.97% [5]. - In the spot market, affected by smelter maintenance and exports, the supply of goods was limited, and traders maintained a price - holding attitude. However, downstream procurement was cautious, and spot trading was relatively light [5]. - As of November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 4425 tons to 51,750 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 4431 tons to 95,916 tons. As of November 27, social inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons to 148,100 tons [6]. - In the macro - aspect, US economic data showed mixed performance. The inflation in September rebounded, and the UK's fiscal budget plan involved tax increases. China's manufacturing PMI in November increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% [6][7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of November 28, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 300 yuan/metal ton to 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 11.8 dollars/dry ton to 61.25 dollars/dry ton [10]. - Kazakhstan's refined zinc output in October was 20,475 tons, a 1.5% increase from September. The output in the first 10 months of this year was 214,334 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [10]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, inventory changes, processing fees of zinc ore, and start - up rates of downstream enterprises, etc., to visually display the market situation of zinc [11][13][17][19][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a focus on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts is -15 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,990.5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 202,518 lots, a decrease of 8,128 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 6,335 lots, an increase of 639 lots. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,892 tons, an increase of 684 tons; the LME inventory is 43,525 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 129.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.79 US dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -27,800 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, an increase of 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, a decrease of 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, an increase of 2,166.92 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, an increase of 34.3534 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, an increase of 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 11.46%, an increase of 1.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 9.28%, a decrease of 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued claims was 1.957 million, slightly up from the previous week's 1.947 million. - Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia [3]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The import of zinc ore has increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has been lowered, and the sulfuric acid price has fallen, significantly squeezing smelter profits, with some smelters incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" was weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the market atmosphere has warmed up, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The de - stocking of LME zinc has slowed down, and the spot premium is at a high level. - Technically, the open interest has decreased while the price has fallen, weakening the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint of the Report The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as inventory decline and the opening of export windows. It is recommended to adopt a long - position trading strategy [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63% and an amplitude of 1.97%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,720 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US private data shows a negative non - farm payroll in October, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, and smelter profits have shrunk. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. Demand - side traditional peak - season effects are weak, and downstream demand recovery is insufficient. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates a strong long - position atmosphere [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position trading strategy [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price and Ratio**: The Shanghai zinc futures price rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the Shanghai zinc closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.63% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the London zinc closing price was 3,051 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton or 0.21% from October 31 [8] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: The top 20 net positions in Shanghai zinc increased. As of November 7, 2025, the top 20 net positions were 16,709 lots, an increase of 6,792 lots from October 31. The open interest was 226,883 lots, an increase of 15,774 lots or 7.47% from October 31 [11] - **Price Spreads**: The zinc - aluminum price spread remained stable, and the zinc - lead price spread rebounded. As of November 7, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from October 31. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from October 31 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: The domestic spot premium rebounded, and the LME zinc premium was at a high level. As of November 7, 2025, the 0 zinc ingot spot price was 22,650 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton or 1.48% from October 31. The spot discount was 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 104.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.73 US dollars/ton from October 30 [22] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or 2.29% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, a decrease of 3,208 tons or 3.1% from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 161,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons or 0.98% from October 30 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: Zinc ore production and imports increased. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In September 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 505,394.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.61% and a year - on - year increase of 25.18% [31] - **Supply Side**: - **Global Supply Shortage**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc supply was in shortage. In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, an increase of 94,600 tons or 8.35% year - on - year. Consumption was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 1,400 tons or 0.12% year - on - year. There was a surplus of 47,900 tons, compared with a deficit of 45,300 tons in the same period last year [36] - **High Production**: In September 2025, China's zinc production was 625,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 5.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [40] - **Export Window Open**: In September 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 22,677.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.05%. The export volume was 2,477.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 158.25% [43] - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to September 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. In September 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 37,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.69%. The export volume was 361,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.29% [46][47] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.96%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.229864 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 988.438 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [52][53] - **Infrastructure**: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27 from the previous month and an increase of 0.47 from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year [58] - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 80.3523 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In September 2025, air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 216.5707 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [60] - **Automobiles**: In September 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,226,375 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The production volume was 3,275,802 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline, with the ADP employment increase in October significantly exceeding expectations. The import volume of zinc ore has risen, with long - term agreement ores from previous smelter contracts arriving at ports, and refineries are making raw material reserves for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has decreased, and the sulfuric acid price has dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some bright spots. The downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventory has decreased, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level. Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustment, with greater divergence between bulls and bears. It is recommended to hold light - position long positions or take profit on long positions at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,054.5 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 225,651 lots, up 2,453 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 12,594 lots, down 2,019 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 68,022 tons, down 401 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 34,000 tons, up 175 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 98.23 dollars/ton, down 40.55 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The zinc social inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.52%, down 1.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.32%, down 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding the expected 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October reached 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% rate. In October, the national new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and stated that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [3].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports are increasing as long - term contract ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and refineries are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, squeezing smelter profits and causing some losses. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected [3]. - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak. The real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some positive factors. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, but downstream demand is weak. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a record high, intensifying the tight situation [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and rising prices, the bearish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2.20 level. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 209,097 lots, down 4,393 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 8,609 lots, up 1,292 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 68,271 tons, up 2,547 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459 tons; the LME inventory is 37,050 tons, down 550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 40 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,310 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14%, down 0.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14%, down 0.48% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions [3]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry had a significant driving effect, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [3]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic record [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a long - position thinking [3] 2. Core View - On the supply side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, the growth of zinc ore processing fees is slowing down, the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, smelters have large profit margins and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, the inflow of imported zinc decreases, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have increased, post - holiday market demand remains weak, and the spot premium is at a low level. LME inventories continue to decline, the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, and the tight situation has intensified [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 305 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 17.5 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,833 lots, up 299 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,935 lots, down 540 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,209 tons, down 1,059 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons, and the LME inventory is 37,275 tons, down 50 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,900 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons, and refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.31%, unchanged [3] 3.7行业消息 - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry has no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU and Dutch officials on trade issues. Reuters survey expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is currently facing a situation where domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. After the macro - impact fades, zinc prices may have further room to fall [1][7]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai zinc futures price first oscillated strongly and then gradually weakened, with a significant decline on Friday night. The market was influenced by the Fed's actions and macro - data, and the zinc's weak fundamentals could not support high prices. The Shanghai - London ratio approached 7.5. The outlook is for prices to oscillate and decline [6][7]. - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, zinc prices fell to an acceptable level for downstream buyers, who increased point - price pick - ups for pre - National Day stocking. Inventory decreased, and some smelters were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight increase in the trader's delivery premium. In Shanghai, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices for stocking, but as some completed stocking and the market rebounded, spot trading weakened [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest LME zinc inventory was 42,775 tons on September 26 and continued to decline this week. The overseas zinc ingot out - storage was due to a bank's inventory from the previous year [10]. - **Export Profit and Loss**: SMM's new export profit - loss calculations showed a loss of 611 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian warehousing and a profit of 29.5 yuan/ton for Southeast Asian spot (turning from loss to profit) on September 25. There may be a chance of profit in warehousing next week, and zinc products may be exported [14]. 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: As of September 26, the SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton. Domestic zinc mine production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and smelters' winter - stocking demand and miners' profit considerations may lead to a downward adjustment of zinc ore processing fees in October [17][18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, 467,300 tons (physical tons) of zinc concentrate were imported, a 6.8% decrease from July and a 30.06% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 3.5027 million tons (physical tons), a 43.06% increase year - on - year [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 339,300 tons, a decrease of 84,200 tons from last week, with a significant decline at Fangchenggang Port [26]. 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: In August 2025, China imported 25,656.83 tons of refined zinc, a 43.30% increase from July and a 3.59% decrease year - on - year. Kazakhstan was the largest source of imports, with 20,824.76 tons imported, a 69.97% increase from July and a 67.01% increase year - on - year. Iran was the second - largest source, with a 9.40% year - on - year increase [30]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate remained high, and the improvement in the processing economy of domestic ore led to an increase in the overall start - up rate [31][34]. 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: No specific data on refined zinc export was provided other than the relevant charts [38][39]. - **Downstream Production and Start - up Rate**: Terminal orders remained weak, and typhoons affected the Guangdong market. The zinc alloy industry was affected by weak demand and low - price alloy competition. In the zinc oxide market, feed - grade zinc oxide was in the peak season, but rubber - grade and ceramic - grade zinc oxide had general demand [40][44]. - **Downstream Prices and Basic Situation**: The overall sales of galvanized pipes were weak, and inventory increased. Galvanized structural parts showed marginal improvement in consumption compared to August. The overall start - up rate of downstream industries was expected to decline slightly next week [44][45]. 5. Zinc Inventory - **Downstream Inventory**: No specific analysis of downstream inventory other than the relevant charts [49]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 18, the total inventory of SMM's seven - location zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from September 15. The Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 8,000 tons on September 25, unchanged from the previous period [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that on the supply side, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, supply growth has accelerated. Currently, import losses continue to widen, leading to a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. - On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not significant, and the operating rate of processing enterprises shows a stable upward trend. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. - Technically, positions are stable while prices are rising, with a cautious bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,200 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 20,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,956 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 221,751 lots, a decrease of 1,484 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,939 lots, a decrease of 47 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 51,371 tons, an increase of 5,466 tons. - The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons, an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 50,525 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 30.17 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.67 US dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 144,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.33%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.34%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.05%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The incremental social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and another three times in 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a very small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3].