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瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 09:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250731
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]
锌期货日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:21
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a downward trend with the main contract closing at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots. The LME zinc inventory increased for two consecutive days, and the domestic social inventory increased as expected. The zinc ingot supply remained strong, while the consumption was squeezed by the off - season and weak exports. The market was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: Different contracts of Shanghai zinc (2507, 2508, 2509) all declined. The main contract 2508 opened at 22,110 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots, and the monthly spread C strengthened to 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME zinc inventory in Singapore increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons. The domestic social inventory on Monday increased by 0.28 million tons to 9.31 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The import zinc concentrate index was 66.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate weekly processing fee rose to 3,800 yuan/ton. The overall zinc ingot supply was strong. The domestic consumption was affected by the off - season and weak exports, and the off - season inventory accumulation trend was gradually realized [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market tested the support at the 22,000 yuan integer mark, and it was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: On July 15, 2025, in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the prices of 0 and 1 zinc and their premiums to different contracts were reported. For example, in Shanghai, 0 zinc mainstream成交价 was between 22,325 - 22,530 yuan/ton, and the premium to the 2508 contract was different for different brands [8][17]. 3. Data Overview - **Relevant Charts**: The report included charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE monthly spread [13][16]
沪锌市场周报:伦锌强势内需仍弱,预计锌价宽幅调整-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].
沪锌市场周报:伦锌强势内需仍弱,预计锌价宽幅调整-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:22
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250703
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 10:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 09:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].
新能源及有色金属周报:锌锭库存微增,现货升水快速回落-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑,隐性库存负反馈可能发生,锌锭社会库存小幅增长;TC整体稳定,海外锌矿发运量提升,供给压力不改;消费边际下滑,现货升水大幅回落,锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力,社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]
海外锌精矿季度追踪报告六:2025Q1
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 08:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the zinc concentrate mining sector has largely materialized, with the treatment charge (TC) continuing to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue [3][50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge [3]. - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term. In the short run, low inventory provides some support, but weak demand restricts upward movement. In the long run, with increased supply and limited demand growth, the zinc price may face pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In March 2025, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 23,700 tons. The first three months of 2025 saw a global supply surplus of 143,000 tons, slightly lower than the 148,000 tons surplus in the same period last year [12]. - In Q1 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 2.9021 million tons, a 9.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.99% increase year - on - year. Global refined zinc production was 3.278 million tons, a 2.32% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.55% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3.2 Glencore - Glencore's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93 - 990,000 tons, consistent with the initial expectation. Q1 production was 213,600 tons, a 18.29% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.89% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Antamina and the Australian region [19]. 3.3 Teck - Teck's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 525,000 - 575,000 tons. Q1 production was 177,300 tons, a 6.19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14.08% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the Red Dog mine [22]. 3.4 Boliden - In Q1 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate production was 57,900 tons, a 38.95% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 45.78% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from the复产 of the Tara mine [24]. 3.5 Vedanta - In Q1 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate production was 264,000 tons, a 5.60% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 4.35% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Gamsberg, partially offset by the reduction at Black Mountain Mine [27]. 3.6 Nexa - Nexa's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 311,000 - 351,000 tons. Q1 production was 67,300 tons, an 8.44% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 22.82% decrease year - on - year. Except for Cerro Lindo, zinc production at other mines declined [31]. 3.7 MMG - MMG's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 215,000 - 240,000 tons. Q1 production was 51,800 tons, a 19.02% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 12.65% decrease year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - Newmont's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 236,000 tons. Q1 production was 59,000 tons, a 23.38% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.42% increase year - on - year [38]. 3.9 BHP - BHP's fiscal 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 90,000 - 110,000 tons. Q1 production was 26,000 tons, a 14.19% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 41.38% increase year - on - year [40]. 3.10 Lundin Mining - In Q1 2025, Lundin Mining's zinc concentrate production was 48,900 tons, a 5.77% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 7.14% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.11 South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's zinc concentrate production was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23.08% decrease year - on - year. The production guidance for the Cannington mine in fiscal 2025 was lowered to 45,000 tons [43]. 3.12 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In Q1 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production was 39,400 tons, an 8.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 49.40% increase year - on - year. The full - load operation of the Buenavista zinc concentrator contributed to the increase [44]. 3.13 Industrials Pelones - In Q1 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate production was 57,700 tons, a 5.65% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 13.86% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the closure of the Tizapa mine and the depletion of the San Julian mine [45]. 3.14 Fresnillo plc - Fresnillo plc's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93,000 - 103,000 tons. Q1 production was 25,200 tons, a 12.79% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.47% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from lower ore grades at Fresnillo and Cienega and the shutdown of the San Julian mine [47]. 3.15 Kaz Mineral - In Q1 2025, Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate production was 9,300 tons, a 19.13% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 11.43% decrease year - on - year, despite the highest quarterly throughput of ore [50]. 3.16 Market Outlook - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the mining sector has materialized, and the TC continues to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue. The TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates has increased [50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term [3][4].
瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250605
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 09:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates zinc prices to fluctuate within a range. It suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 2.18 - 2.25. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are rising, processing fees are increasing, and sulfuric acid prices are up, which restores smelter profits. However, there are supply disruptions due to a smelter's extended maintenance. The import window is closed, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it's the end of the peak season, with lower processing enterprise开工率 and potential export demand shrinkage. But lower zinc prices lead to more bargain - hunting and a decline in domestic social inventories, while overseas de - stocking continues. Technically, there are differences between long and short positions in open interest increment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,340 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is 160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,704 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 240,856 lots, an increase of 2,590 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,173 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots. - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 2,004 tons, an increase of 628 tons; the SHFE inventory is 42,310 tons, a decrease of 1,763 tons; the LME inventory is 136,275 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,800 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.28 dollars/ton, down 4.09 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 56,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2,320,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2,340,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing start area is 178,358,400 square meters, an increase of 48,393,800 square meters; the housing completion area is 156,478,500 square meters, an increase of 25,875,800 square meters. - The automobile production is 2,604,000 vehicles, a decrease of 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19,678,800 units, an increase of 3,476,400 units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.78%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates, and the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The estimated cumulative wholesale from January to May was 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [3].