大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月12日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24520，基差-65；中性。 3、库存：2月11日LME锌库存较上日减少1500吨至105250吨，2月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加8100吨至42335吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡 ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2026-01-27 货升水维持低位。技术面，持仓减量高开调整，多头氛围谨慎。观点参考：预计沪锌偏强调整，关注区间2. 45-2.55。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24950 | 225 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -55 | 25 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3342.5 | 73.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 230617 | -4179 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with attention on the MA10 support level in the range of 2.38 - 2.45 [3]. - On the macro - front, the US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore purchases has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profit of domestic smelters has shrunk, so production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - The export window may close again as the LME zinc price has corrected recently and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while there are some bright spots in the automotive and other sectors due to policy support [3]. - The downstream market mainly makes purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories have increased significantly. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the price has risen with an increase in positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment and resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 155 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,153.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 222,360 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,307 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,583 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 427 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 107,450 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 410 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 43.99 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 113,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 1.35%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month turn to a 0.2% increase. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI to 0.8% was the highest since March 2023, mainly driven by the expansion of food price increases, with the fresh vegetable price increase at 18.2%. The month - on - month turn from a decrease to an increase in CPI was mainly affected by the price increase of industrial consumer goods excluding energy. The prices of communication tools, mother - and - baby products, etc. all increased, and the gold jewelry price increased by 5.6%. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices pulled up the prices of related domestic industries [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall index is mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline of inventory. Zinc prices have corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off-season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening. However, there are some bright spots in areas such as the automotive sector supported by policies. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have been fluctuating and adjusting, with dull trading and on-demand purchases. The spot premium is relatively high and stable, and domestic inventory continues to decline. The accumulation of LME zinc inventory has slowed down, and the spot premium remains at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has strengthened, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,100-24,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,295 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the 02-03 month contract spread is -50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three-month zinc quotation is 3,195 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,243 lots, up 22,571 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,432 lots, up 3,069 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,850 tons, down 475 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 24,630 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash-to-three-month spread is -36.3 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ex-factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,850 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan; the price of 85%-86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply-demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply-demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 113,900 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points. The 20-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 17.29%, up 3.34 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 11.81%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's RatingDog Services PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications. Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly contracted the most since 2024, dragged down by inventory [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc futures may fluctuate repeatedly, but the contract ZN2602 is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, with the short - term KDJ indicator rising in the weak area, the trend indicator falling, the dominance of bullish strength narrowing, and both bulls and bears increasing positions, with bulls increasing more [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,330, and the basis was + 215 [2]. Inventory - On December 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 99,250 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,588 tons to 42,590 tons [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On December 22, the trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 228,608 lots, with a turnover of 2.63755519 billion yuan. The total open interest was 195,110 lots, an increase of 1,508 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On December 22, the price range of 0 zinc in Aoshi was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,970 - 23,070 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 23,010 - 23,110 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory - From December 11 to December 22, the total inventory of zinc ingots in China's major markets decreased from 130,200 tons to 119,300 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipt was 42,590 tons, a decrease of 2,588 tons. Among them, Guangdong decreased by 2,312 tons, and Tianjin decreased by 276 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On December 22, the total LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 91,250 tons and a cancelled warrant of 8,000 tons, accounting for 8.06% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming were around 19,960 yuan/ton, with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Sanzhoulu Zhongba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual domestic refined zinc production was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.45%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 22, the average processing fee for 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average import processing fee was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 22, in the SHFE member trading and position ranking of zinc, the total trading volume was 212,095 lots, an increase of 73,759 lots; the total long position was 63,613 lots, an increase of 2,641 lots; the total short position was 64,185 lots, an increase of 2,371 lots [18].

Market Overview - As of December 4, SMM zinc ingot inventory totaled 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons from December 1, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1] - On December 4, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 49,250 tons, with canceled warrants at 5,075 tons, remaining unchanged. Total zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 54,325 tons [1] - The top 20 futures companies for Shanghai zinc had a total long position of 138,800 contracts and a short position of 116,500 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.19. The net position increased by 2,417 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures indicated that under the conditions of supply increase and stable demand, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market. However, the realization of this oversupply expectation depends on the further transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which requires time for internal adjustments within the industry chain. A key indicator to watch is whether the import mineral smelting profit and the Shanghai-London price ratio can significantly recover. The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling at the upper range of the price interval [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted strong expectations for domestic smelter production cuts, while overseas smelter production expectations for Q4 remain moderate. The constraints on zinc ingot supply are strengthening, supporting price increases. Weak U.S. employment data and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December maintain bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, advising against short positions in zinc. The export window for zinc ingots has opened, and Shanghai zinc is expected to test the annual line, with the possibility of breaking through and continuing to rise [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience volatile adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The supply side shows that although zinc ore imports have increased and new production capacities are being released, domestic refined zinc production growth is limited due to factors such as reduced processing fees and lower sulfuric acid prices. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors have some policy - supported highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, but the spot premium is high. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious, with attention on the MA60 support[3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,055 US dollars/ton, up 55.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 189,741 lots, down 329 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,728 lots, down 1,037 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 49,925 tons, up 1,925 tons[3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 164.86 US dollars/ton, up 44.09 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 48,630 yuan/ton, up 30,030 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged[3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons[3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons[3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units[3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, down 0.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.97%, down 0.06 percentage points[3]. Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts since the last report, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, and the initial value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, while the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%[3].