| 纷瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | 沪锌产业日报 2025-08-13 依旧平淡，国内社库延续累增，现货升水下跌；海外LME库存下降明显，LME锌价强势带动国内锌价。技术 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 面，持仓增加价格上涨，多头氛围偏强，关注23000关口阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或短线做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Short - and medium - term strategy: The anti - involution trading is over, and the market returns to the fundamental reality. The expectation that zinc will shift from balance to surplus remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out short positions on rallies [6]. - Macro aspect: As of August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 9.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 90.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 46.5% [7]. - Fundamental aspect: Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market eased, and zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Inventory showed a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventories continued to decline while domestic inventories continued to accumulate, which is the result of the geographical differentiation of refined zinc output. Overseas smelters face high costs. With the long - term treatment charge (TC) at a record low, high - cost overseas smelters are under great loss pressure, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization and production cuts. In contrast, domestic smelters have low costs and currently enjoy good smelting profits from both long - term and spot TCs. As a result, domestic smelting output has increased significantly, with the output in July having a year - on - year growth rate of over 20%. The trend of an expanding import loss of refined zinc also reflects the different situations of smelting at home and abroad. It is expected that the import loss will continue to widen, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the refined zinc export window opening. From a global perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore has gradually become looser, and the increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. Although the transmission from mine - end production increase to smelting output expansion has been delayed due to production cuts by overseas smelters, considering the sufficient existing and new smelting capacities in China, which can absorb the incremental output from the mine end, the increase in global zinc ore output will ultimately translate into an increase in refined zinc production. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden concern of a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the current level. Whether the demand is estimated to be relatively optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will put downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Output - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49% [8]. - The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80 per ton, the lowest in history and halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed as shown by the change in spot TC [8]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Import Volume and Treatment Charge - From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has boosted the TC [11]. - As of August 8, according to SMM, the TC for imported zinc concentrate was reported at $82.3 per ton, and the TC for domestic zinc concentrate was reported at 3,900 yuan per ton. Both domestic and imported ore TCs have been raised several times recently [11]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - As the TC has been continuously raised, the smelter's profit has been continuously improved [14]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Output - In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [18]. - In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc output was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As the profit recovers, the output is gradually increasing [18]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons [20]. - The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part II: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side 3.1 Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31% [25]. - The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. 3.2 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) slowed down [27]. - The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [27]. 3.3 Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - In June 2025, the domestic automobile output was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43% [30]. - In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted in stages, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. Part III: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc has been continuously accumulating. With the continuous increase in domestic smelter output, the trend of social inventory accumulation will continue [32]. 4.2 Spot Premium or Discount - As of August 8, the LME 0 - 3 premium or discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.23 per ton [35]. - With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [35]. 4.3 Exchange Position - As of August 1, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 25,513 lots [38]. - The weighted position volume of SHFE zinc has declined recently [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data for July 2025 released on the evening of August 1st was significantly weaker than expected. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population in July was 73,000, the smallest increase since October last year, far lower than the market expectation of 110,000. The total number of new jobs in May and June was 258,000 less than previously reported, and the unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, which met market expectations but made Trump urge Powell to cut interest rates [5]. - Last week, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market significantly eased, and zinc prices gradually declined. The weekly processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of zinc ore was becoming looser, which was being transmitted to the smelting end. The pressure on the zinc fundamentals was gradually accumulating [5]. - In the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is shifting to a looser state cyclically. Several large zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and the output of refined zinc has continued to expand. It is expected that the production increase situation in the ore and smelting sectors will continue [5]. - On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach a new trade agreement and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, which will bring downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - In the short and medium term, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market has significantly declined, the anti - involution trading has ended, and the market has returned to the fundamental reality. The long - term surplus trend of zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can still be established on rallies [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply on the margin remained unchanged [6]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate in China was 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fee. As of August 1st, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $78.8/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,900 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 601,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. As profits rebounded, production was gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. 2. Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In June 2025, the domestic galvanized sheet production was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.31%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of the implicit inventory in the industrial chain [23]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but the front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. 3. Other Indicators - **Inventory**: During the off - season, the social inventory of zinc continued to accumulate. With the continuous increase in the output of domestic smelters, the inventory accumulation trend will continue [30]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of August 1st, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $10.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [33]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 25th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 30,194 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macro: On July 27, local time, US President Trump announced that the US had reached a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [5]. - Fundamental: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated and consolidated. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and prices dropped significantly on Friday night, showing signs of a potential peak. The fundamentals of zinc have changed little recently, and anti - involution has limited impact on the zinc supply - demand pattern. It is advisable to consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. The supply of zinc ore is becoming more abundant cyclically, with several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad planning to increase production in 2025. The increase in global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the spot TC for zinc ore. The increase in ore supply is being transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters have increased their operating rates, postponed maintenance, and the output of refined zinc has marginally recovered. It is expected that the production increase trend in the ore and smelting sectors will continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate remains resilient, there is little expectation of an increase in total zinc demand, with demand expected to remain stable. Whether a more optimistic or pessimistic view is taken on demand, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [5]. - Strategy: In the short - to medium - term, zinc prices have been fluctuating and consolidating after rising due to commodity market sentiment. Anti - involution has limited impact on the medium - to long - term fundamental pattern of zinc. The zinc market is expected to be in surplus this year. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices after the sentiment in the domestic commodity market stabilizes [5]. Group 3: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side 2.1 Zinc Concentrate Production - In May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared to the previous year. High - cost overseas smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was severely overestimated, and the trend of a marginal increase in zinc ore supply remains unchanged [6]. 2.2 Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.5353 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.14%. The increase in imports has pushed up processing fees. As of July 25, according to SMM, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $76.25/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [9]. 2.3 Smelter Profit Estimation - With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. 2.4 Refined Zinc Production - According to ILZSG, in May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. 2.5 Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 180,000 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [18]. Group 4: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side 3.1 Refined Zinc Initial - Stage Consumption - In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [23]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction starts and construction were still weak [25]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption - In June 2025, China's automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.43%. In some regions, national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of household appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [28]. Group 5: Other Indicators 4.1 Inventory - During the off - season, social inventories of zinc have been continuously increasing [30]. 4.2 Spot Premium/Discount - As of July 25, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $1.96/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium has declined [33]. 4.3 Exchange Positions - As of July 18, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 21,052 lots. The weighted open interest of SHFE zinc has recently declined [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The refinery profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased due to rising zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. The import loss is expanding, resulting in a decrease in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and the processing enterprise operating rate has decreased year - on - year. Zinc prices have fallen recently, and downstream buyers purchase on demand at low prices, but overall trading is still dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been adjusted downwards. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are correcting, with both bulls and bears trading cautiously. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,754 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 205,615 lots, down 5,585 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,298 lots, up 5,160 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,807 tons, down 100 tons; the SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; the LME inventory is 97,000 tons, down 3,825 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 22,390 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.87 dollars/ton, up 0.09 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventories are 87,300 tons, up 3,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.99%, up 0.19% - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.47% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a board member. The control of the Fed lies in Powell's hands, not Trump's - The EU Commission spokesman said that according to the agreement between the EU and the US, the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and this extension will take effect this week [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: As of July 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.1% [5]. - Fundamentals: Driven by anti - involution and meeting expectations, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, and zinc prices have rebounded and then fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the increasing production situation at the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [5]. - Strategy: In the short and medium term, the short - term sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, but there seems to be no clear expectation that can reverse the supply - demand situation, and it has little to do with the fundamentals of zinc. Consider laying out short positions in SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - The macro situation shows different probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions in July and September. The fundamentals indicate a shift in the zinc supply - demand balance towards surplus, and the strategy suggests shorting SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Part 2: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of a marginally looser zinc ore supply remains unchanged [7]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports has boosted processing fees. As of July 11, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $66.48/ton, and that for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton, with both having been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [19]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [24]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [26]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be noted [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approaches, social inventories of zinc have slightly increased [31]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of July 11, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.36/ton. As the off - season approaches, the domestic spot premium has declined [34]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 4, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 20,595 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [37].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply - side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the processing fee of zinc ore has continued to rise, and the smelter's profit has been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand - side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the rising LME zinc premium and declining overseas inventory have driven up the domestic price. Technically, with reduced positions and cautious trading from both long and short sides, there is support at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.99%, down 0.1%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.59%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 14.46%, down 0.5% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1st, and mentioned that the tariff for some tax notices might be 60% or 70%. The US is dissatisfied with the EU's taxation and fines on US technology companies and may issue a tax notice to the EU. The Fed reported that the one - year inflation expectation in the US dropped to a five - month low in June, and concerns about layoffs eased. The China Passenger Car Association reported that China's passenger car retail sales in June reached a new high for the month, with new - energy vehicle retail sales up 29.7% year - on - year [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro aspect**: On July 3rd, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with an expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, expected to be 4.3%. After the release of non - farm data, the probability of a Fed rate cut in July dropped to single - digits [6]. - **Fundamental aspect**: The non - ferrous sector remained relatively strong. Last week, the zinc price fluctuated above 22,000. Processing fees continued to rise, and domestic smelter output was expected to increase. The supply of zinc ore was becoming more abundant cyclically. In 2025, several major zinc mines planned to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in the mine end was transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelter operating rates increased, and maintenance was postponed. Refined zinc output gradually recovered, and this trend was expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes might drag down the global economic growth rate, and there were concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if new trade agreements were quickly reached and the global economic growth rate remained resilient, there was no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, mainly maintaining the status quo. Whether the demand was estimated optimistically or pessimistically, the zinc supply - demand balance tended to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price [6]. - **Strategy aspect**: In the short and medium term, the rebound of the zinc price was mainly driven by the overall sentiment of the sector and commodities, with little change in its own fundamentals. The recent strength of non - ferrous metals was mainly due to regional premiums caused by tariffs, not an indication of the strengthening of the global manufacturing industry. Therefore, the sustainability of the zinc price rebound was expected to be limited, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high prices [6]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc concentrate output**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history and half of the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters might face operational pressure. However, the long - term contract TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of looser zinc ore supply remained unchanged [8]. - **Zinc concentrate imports and processing fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate reached 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports boosted the processing fees. As of July 4th, the processing fee for imported zinc ore was reported at $66.25/ton, and that for domestic zinc ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees had been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter profit estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits had been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined zinc output**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recovered, output was gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined zinc import profit and import volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The refined zinc import window was currently closed [21]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial consumption of refined zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [26]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 1**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction remained weak [28]. - **Terminal consumption of refined zinc - Part 2**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [31]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approached, social inventories of zinc increased slightly [33]. - **Spot premium/discount**: As of July 4th, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $21.64/ton. With the arrival of the off - season, the domestic spot premium declined [36]. - **Exchange positions**: As of June 27th, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 17,814 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The Fed's new economic forecast predicts slower economic growth and rising inflation, but policymakers still expect rate cuts later this year. There are significant differences in opinions among officials, with 7 believing no rate cuts are needed, 8 expecting two cuts, 2 predicting one cut, and 2 forecasting three cuts. Fed officials Waller and Barkin have different views on the timing of rate cuts [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical situations had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, with dull spot transactions and stable social inventories. On the supply side, the periodic supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad plan to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the marginal TC of zinc ore spot. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc production has recovered marginally. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down global economic growth, and there are concerns about a contraction in zinc demand. Whether the demand outlook is optimistic or pessimistic, there is a tendency of oversupply in the zinc market, putting downward pressure on long - term zinc prices [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to low social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. It is advisable to consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 is set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. As of June 20, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $55.27/ton, and that for domestic ore was 3,600 yuan/ton, both having been raised recently [10]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelters' profits have been continuously improved [13]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc production was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Downstream buyers over - purchased and replenished stocks at low prices, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of June 20, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $24.65/ton. Due to low social inventories, the spot premium is relatively high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 13, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 4,817 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].