| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24125 | 155 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -50 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3153.5 | 18.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 222360 | 4307 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 3583 | -427 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 73852 | 4059 LME库存(日,吨) | 107450 | -550 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24140 | 110 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24210 | 410 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 15 | -45 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -43.99 | -1.42 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 21070 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24295 | 475 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -50 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3195 | 68 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 230243 | 22571 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 3432 | 3069 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 69793 | -3170 LME库存(日,吨) | 105850 | -475 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24340 | 370 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24630 | 140 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 45 | -105 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -36.3 | -0.05 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 20850 | ...

沪锌: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23330，基差+215；偏多。 3、库存：12月22日LME锌库存较上日减少650吨至99250吨，12月22日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少2588吨至42590吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20 ...

消息面 国投安信期货： 截至本周四（12月4日），SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.03万吨，较11月27日减少0.77万吨，较12月1日 减少0.40万吨，国内库存减少。 国内炼厂减产预期强，海外炼厂4季度提产预期平平，锌锭供应端约束走强，支撑盘面冲高上行。美就 业数据疲弱，12月美联储降息预期强，有色和贵金属板块资金多头情绪依旧高亢，锌不做空头配置。锌 锭出口窗口打开，沪锌有望上探年线，且不排除突破年线继续上行可能。 机构观点 正信期货： 总之，供增需稳之下锌供需平衡有过剩倾向，但过剩预期的实现还有待矿端向冶炼端的进一步传导，产 业链内部调整需要一段时间，其中最关键的一个指标是进口矿冶炼利润和沪伦比能否明显回升。策略方 面，中线锌价或难有流畅的下跌趋势，期货建议关注背靠区间上沿，逢高沽空的波段策略，期权可考虑 卖出23000挡位附近的看涨期权。 12月4日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单49250吨。注销仓单5075吨，持平。锌库存54325吨， 增加1875吨。 12月4日，沪锌前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓13.88万手，空单持仓11.65万手，多空比 1.19。净持仓为2.22万手，相 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience volatile adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The supply side shows that although zinc ore imports have increased and new production capacities are being released, domestic refined zinc production growth is limited due to factors such as reduced processing fees and lower sulfuric acid prices. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors have some policy - supported highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, but the spot premium is high. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious, with attention on the MA60 support[3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,055 US dollars/ton, up 55.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 189,741 lots, down 329 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,728 lots, down 1,037 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 49,925 tons, up 1,925 tons[3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 164.86 US dollars/ton, up 44.09 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 48,630 yuan/ton, up 30,030 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged[3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons[3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons[3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units[3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, down 0.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.97%, down 0.06 percentage points[3]. Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts since the last report, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, and the initial value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, while the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%[3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a focus on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts is -15 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,990.5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 202,518 lots, a decrease of 8,128 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 6,335 lots, an increase of 639 lots. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 100,892 tons, an increase of 684 tons; the LME inventory is 43,525 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 129.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.79 US dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -27,800 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, an increase of 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, a decrease of 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, an increase of 2,166.92 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, an increase of 34.3534 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, an increase of 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.6%, a decrease of 0.7%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 11.46%, an increase of 1.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 9.28%, a decrease of 0.03% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued claims was 1.957 million, slightly up from the previous week's 1.947 million. - Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia [3]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The import of zinc ore has increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has been lowered, and the sulfuric acid price has fallen, significantly squeezing smelter profits, with some smelters incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc production is limited. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift towards net exports expected. - On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" was weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the market atmosphere has warmed up, the spot premium has rebounded, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. The de - stocking of LME zinc has slowed down, and the spot premium is at a high level. - Technically, the open interest has decreased while the price has fallen, weakening the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline, with the ADP employment increase in October significantly exceeding expectations. The import volume of zinc ore has risen, with long - term agreement ores from previous smelter contracts arriving at ports, and refineries are making raw material reserves for winter production. However, the domestic zinc ore processing fee has decreased, and the sulfuric acid price has dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, while policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some bright spots. The downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventory has decreased, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level. Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustment, with greater divergence between bulls and bears. It is recommended to hold light - position long positions or take profit on long positions at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,054.5 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 225,651 lots, up 2,453 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 12,594 lots, down 2,019 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 68,022 tons, down 401 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 34,000 tons, up 175 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 175 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 98.23 dollars/ton, down 40.55 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The zinc social inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.67%, down 1.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.52%, down 1.39 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.32%, down 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, exceeding the expected 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October reached 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% rate. In October, the national new - energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and stated that China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply - side contraction due to shrinking profits of domestic zinc smelters and tight ore supply is favorable for zinc prices. The continuous opening of the domestic export window is expected to relieve the high domestic inventory pressure, and zinc may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. However, after the end of the downstream peak season, the weakening consumption of refined zinc may limit the increase in zinc prices. [1][47][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In October, zinc prices at home and abroad ended the previous downward trend, rebounded after volatile consolidation. In the first and middle of the month, the domestic zinc supply - demand situation weakened, and inventory continued to accumulate. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then trended lower. In the late month, the domestic export window opened, the oversupply of domestic inventory was relieved, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts strengthened, leading to a continuous rise in SHFE zinc. - In November, zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, further compressing the profits of zinc smelting enterprises. Some high - cost enterprises reduced production, intensifying the expectation of supply - side contraction. With domestic supply contraction and the opening of the export window, the domestic inventory pressure is expected to be relieved, but the weakening demand and high domestic inventory may limit the increase in zinc prices. [7] 3.2. Analysis of Zinc Influencing Factors 3.2.1. High - speed Increase in Global Zinc Ore Supply - With the resumption of production of global zinc mines and the ramping - up of new projects, global zinc ore supply increased at a high - speed year - on - year. In August, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In 2025, the main driving force for the increase in global mine production came from the resumption and increase of production of overseas mine projects and new production capacity in Xinjiang, China. - In September, domestic zinc concentrate production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the production of some mines in Anhui and Guizhou was planned to resume, but as domestic mines gradually entered the seasonal supply off - season, the zinc concentrate production continued to decline. Overall, overseas mines are recovering rapidly, with a long - term expectation of global mine oversupply, but currently, domestic ore supply is gradually decreasing. [13][14] 3.2.2. High - level Domestic Zinc Ore Imports - In September 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import of zinc concentrate from January to September was 4.008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. The top three import source countries in September were Australia, Peru, and Oman. - In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate increased slightly month - on - month, maintaining a high level in recent years. Although the import window for zinc ore was closed in September, the arrival of locked - price and long - term contract zinc ores and strong demand for winter storage led to a continuous import volume. In October, the import window remained closed. Considering the strong demand for winter storage by domestic smelters but unfavorable import ratios, the import volume of zinc concentrate is expected to decrease. - Due to factors such as increased demand for winter storage by domestic smelters, seasonal production cuts of domestic mines, and expanded losses of imported ores, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have been adjusted downward. [15][16][17] 3.2.3. Gradual Expansion of Global Zinc Supply - demand Surplus - In August 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, and the demand was 1.179 million tons, with a monthly supply - demand surplus of 47,900 tons. From January to August, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 9.1482 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.14%, and the cumulative demand was 8.9683 million tons, a cumulative increase of 0.19%. The cumulative global refined zinc supply - demand surplus from January to August was 179,900 tons. [19][22] 3.2.4. Expected Contraction of Domestic Zinc Supply - In October 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 617,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 21.45%. The cumulative production from January to October increased by 10% year - on - year, lower than expected. In November, with the rapid decline of domestic and imported processing fees, the comprehensive smelting profits of smelters were severely compressed, and some high - cost areas faced the risk of losses. Some smelters in the northwest and central China may actively reduce production in November. - In September 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In October, zinc ingot import losses reached a record high since 2022, severely suppressing imports, while the export window remained open, relieving domestic inventory pressure. [27][28][29] 3.2.5. Downstream Demand Enters the Off - season - In the galvanizing industry, after the holiday, the galvanizing start - up rate rebounded month - on - month but then remained stable. In October, due to the mediocre performance of black metal prices, the consumption of galvanizing was lower than expected, and the start - up rate showed a downward trend. - In the die - casting zinc alloy industry, in early October, the start - up rate declined slightly month - on - month due to the holidays. In the middle of the month, it increased significantly but then weakened. In November, with the arrival of the traditional off - season, orders are expected to be sluggish, and the start - up rate may further decline. - In the zinc oxide industry, the start - up rate of zinc oxide enterprises first decreased and then increased in October. Overall, the start - up rate was relatively stable compared with previous years, but the peak - season effect weakened. The demand in traditional fields was weak, and the increase in the start - up rate in the later stage was limited. - From the perspective of zinc terminal industries, the real estate industry remained weak, infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the automobile industry showed good production and sales data. In November, downstream terminal demand entered the off - season, and demand may gradually weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [31][33][37] 3.2.6. Obvious Differentiation of Domestic and Overseas Zinc Inventories - In October, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 33,800 tons at the end of the month. Currently, LME inventory is at an absolute low in recent years. Although LME plans to introduce policies to restrict large near - month positions, overseas spot premiums have fallen from high levels. With the narrowing of domestic export profits, the low - inventory situation overseas may continue. - In October, domestic zinc social inventory continued to rise and then slightly declined from the high level at the end of the month. Currently, the inventory is still at a high level in recent years, with relatively large inventory pressure. In November, as downstream demand enters the off - season and domestic zinc supply is expected to shrink, the domestic inventory pressure may be further relieved. [42][44] 3.3. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, there is great uncertainty in the external environment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting improved market sentiment in the short term, but Trump's policies are still variable. The Fed's interest rate cut with a hawkish stance and the strengthening of the US dollar may suppress zinc prices. Domestically, policies form a support. The suggestion to set a production capacity cap for zinc and the "15th Five - Year Plan" boost long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. - On the supply side, global zinc mine supply is growing at a high - speed year - on - year, and the long - term ore supply shortage is easing. However, in the short term, the increase in mine production mainly flows into China, and overseas ore supply remains tight with low inventory. Due to various factors, domestic and overseas zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased, and domestic smelting enterprises' profit compression is expected to lead to supply contraction. The opening of the export window relieves domestic inventory pressure. - On the demand side, the real estate industry remains weak, infrastructure investment declines month - on - month, and the domestic automobile industry grows steadily. However, downstream demand enters the off - season, and demand may further weaken, especially in northern regions affected by the heating season. [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2512 is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. The fundamentals show a supply shortage of zinc plates globally, and the market has mixed signals from different indicators. The short - term trading may experience oscillating consolidation due to the behavior of both long and short positions in the previous trading day [2][18] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2] 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,630, and the basis was - 35, indicating a neutral situation [2] 3.3 Inventory - On November 4, LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 33,825 tons compared to the previous day, while SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 548 tons to 68,197 tons, which is a bearish factor [2] 3.4 Market Trends - On the previous trading day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, which is a bullish factor [2] 3.5 Main Positions - The main players held a net short position, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2] 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (November 4) - For different delivery months, prices generally showed an upward trend. For example, for the 2512 contract, the previous settlement was 22,485, the opening price was 22,610, the closing price was 22,670, with an increase of 185 (first method) and 200 (second method). The trading volume was 150,552 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,016 lots [3] 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (November 4) - The domestic spot price of zinc concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc ingots in different regions increased, such as in Shanghai, it was 22,580 - 22,680 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton [4] 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (October 23 - November 3, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets decreased from 163,500 tons on October 23 to 162,300 tons on November 3 [5] 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (November 4) - The total SHFE zinc warrants were 68,197 tons, an increase of 548 tons compared to the previous day. The main changes occurred in Guangdong and Tianjin [6] 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (November 4) - The total LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons. The注销仓单 ratio was 12.79% [7] 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (November 4) - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 180 yuan/ton [9] 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (November 4) - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 230 yuan/ton [12] 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, and the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% but a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production in October was 509,600 tons [14] 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 4) - The average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions was around 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported processing fee for 48% grade was 100 US dollars/dry ton [16] 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 4) - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume was 227,322 lots, an increase of 15,012 lots compared to the previous day. The total long position was 79,420 lots, a decrease of 2,377 lots, and the total short position was 77,669 lots, a decrease of 1,936 lots [17] 3.16 Short - Term View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillate upwards, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions reducing more. The market may experience short - term oscillating consolidation. Technically, the price was above the moving average system, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but remained in the strong zone, and the trend indicator showed that the bullish power was increasing, and the bearish power was decreasing, with the bullish power having an expanding advantage [18]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports are increasing as long - term contract ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and refineries are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, squeezing smelter profits and causing some losses. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected [3]. - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak. The real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some positive factors. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, but downstream demand is weak. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a record high, intensifying the tight situation [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and rising prices, the bearish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2.20 level. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 209,097 lots, down 4,393 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 8,609 lots, up 1,292 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 68,271 tons, up 2,547 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459 tons; the LME inventory is 37,050 tons, down 550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 40 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,310 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14%, down 0.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14%, down 0.48% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions [3]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry had a significant driving effect, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [3]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic record [3].