Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo an oscillatory adjustment, and suggests paying attention to the support of MA60. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore procurement intensifies, and the domestic and foreign processing fees remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price strengthens, expanding the profits of domestic smelters, and the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work after the festival is expected to increase. The export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors are slowly recovering, lacking obvious increments. The automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have declined, downstream purchases are still light, the domestic social inventory continues to increase, the LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position volume decreases and the price adjusts, with both long and short sides trading cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,315.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 176,142 lots, an increase of 1,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,277 lots, an increase of 1,883 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 134,921 tons, an increase of 8,869 tons; the LME inventory is 98,900 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 41.31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.86 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production (monthly value) is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons. The social zinc inventory is 218,400 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons. The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5,313.26 million square meters; the housing completion area is 60,348.13 million square meters, an increase of 20,894.2 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 23.41%, a decrease of 2.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. In February, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 694,000 and 765,000 vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively, and new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales. The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities". The US February CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. G7 leaders held a phone call to discuss the Middle East situation and its economic impact. The energy price surge caused by the Iran war is reshaping Europe [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile upward trend, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with the short positions decreasing more. Overall, it was a volume - shrinking upward movement. As the holiday approached, both long and short positions showed a cautious attitude. The market is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak area. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - position strength advantage expanding. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2603 will fluctuate and decline [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 24,520, and the basis was - 65, which is a neutral factor [2]. 3. Inventory - On February 11, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 105,250 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 8,100 tons to 42,335 tons compared with the previous day, which is a neutral factor [2]. 4. Market Trends - The previous day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile upward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a neutral factor [2]. 5. Main Positions - The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, which is a bullish factor [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on February 11 - The quotes of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months, including pre - settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes, are provided [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on February 11 - The prices of zinc concentrate (domestic spot TC was 1,300 yuan/metal ton, and imported comprehensive TC was 30 US dollars/dry ton) and zinc ingots in different regions (such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang) are provided [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/1/29 - 2026/2/9) - The inventory data of zinc ingots in different markets (FR, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu) at different times are provided, showing the inventory changes over time [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on February 11 - The zinc warrant data in different regions (Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin) and their changes are provided [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on February 11 - The inventory data of LME zinc, including previous day's inventory, inbound and outbound volume, current inventory, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants, are provided [8]. 11. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on February 11 - There is no specific price data provided in the given content, only the title is mentioned [10]. 12. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on February 11 - The price quotes of zinc ingots from different smelters, including brand, specification, price range, and average price, are provided [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in January 2026 - The production data of domestic refined zinc in January 2026, including planned production, actual production, month - on - month change, year - on - year change, deviation from the planned value, capacity utilization rate, and planned production in February, are provided [16]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on February 11 - The processing fee quotes of zinc concentrate in different regions (domestic and imported) with different grades are provided [18]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on February 11 - The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of different members and their changes are provided [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo a relatively strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 2.45 - 2.55 [3] - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased, leading to a contraction in domestic smelter profits, and production is expected to continue to be restricted [3] - The export window may close again as the London zinc price has recently corrected and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automotive industry brings some bright spots [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has declined, downstream procurement has improved, the spot premium has remained stable, and domestic inventories have decreased. LME zinc inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level [3] - Technically, the position has decreased, the price opened higher and adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 225 yuan. The 02 - 03 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 55 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,342.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 73.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,617 lots, with a daily decrease of 4,179 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,216 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,490 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, with no change [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), with a decrease of 3,160 tons. The LME inventory is 111,325 tons (daily), with a decrease of 175 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 25,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 190 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 145 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 26.43 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 6.19 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,530 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, with no change [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons (monthly), with a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons (monthly), with an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 9,469.07 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), with a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 112,200 tons (weekly), with an increase of 5,800 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, with an increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, with a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, with an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3] - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a decrease of 107,500 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, with an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 28.49% (daily), with an increase of 0.65 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 28.49% (daily), with an increase of 0.65 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 23.73% (daily), with an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.74% (daily), with no change [3] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the United States and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3] - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, announced support for increasing the scale of RMB business fund arrangements in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3] - Forecast market data shows that the probability of a new shutdown of the US government before January 31 has soared to nearly 80% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with attention on the MA10 support level in the range of 2.38 - 2.45 [3]. - On the macro - front, the US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore purchases has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profit of domestic smelters has shrunk, so production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - The export window may close again as the LME zinc price has corrected recently and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while there are some bright spots in the automotive and other sectors due to policy support [3]. - The downstream market mainly makes purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories have increased significantly. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the price has risen with an increase in positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment and resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 155 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,153.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 222,360 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,307 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,583 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 427 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 107,450 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 410 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 43.99 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 113,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 1.35%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month turn to a 0.2% increase. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI to 0.8% was the highest since March 2023, mainly driven by the expansion of food price increases, with the fresh vegetable price increase at 18.2%. The month - on - month turn from a decrease to an increase in CPI was mainly affected by the price increase of industrial consumer goods excluding energy. The prices of communication tools, mother - and - baby products, etc. all increased, and the gold jewelry price increased by 5.6%. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices pulled up the prices of related domestic industries [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall index is mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline of inventory. Zinc prices have corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off-season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening. However, there are some bright spots in areas such as the automotive sector supported by policies. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have been fluctuating and adjusting, with dull trading and on-demand purchases. The spot premium is relatively high and stable, and domestic inventory continues to decline. The accumulation of LME zinc inventory has slowed down, and the spot premium remains at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has strengthened, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,100-24,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,295 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the 02-03 month contract spread is -50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three-month zinc quotation is 3,195 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,243 lots, up 22,571 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,432 lots, up 3,069 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,850 tons, down 475 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 24,630 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash-to-three-month spread is -36.3 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ex-factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,850 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan; the price of 85%-86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply-demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply-demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 113,900 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points. The 20-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 17.29%, up 3.34 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 11.81%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's RatingDog Services PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications. Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly contracted the most since 2024, dragged down by inventory [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market of Shanghai Zinc futures may fluctuate repeatedly, but the contract ZN2602 is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, with the short - term KDJ indicator rising in the weak area, the trend indicator falling, the dominance of bullish strength narrowing, and both bulls and bears increasing positions, with bulls increasing more [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,330, and the basis was + 215 [2]. Inventory - On December 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons to 99,250 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,588 tons to 42,590 tons [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On December 22, the trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 228,608 lots, with a turnover of 2.63755519 billion yuan. The total open interest was 195,110 lots, an increase of 1,508 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On December 22, the price range of 0 zinc in Aoshi was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,970 - 23,070 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 23,010 - 23,110 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,230 - 23,330 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory - From December 11 to December 22, the total inventory of zinc ingots in China's major markets decreased from 130,200 tons to 119,300 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipt was 42,590 tons, a decrease of 2,588 tons. Among them, Guangdong decreased by 2,312 tons, and Tianjin decreased by 276 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On December 22, the total LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warrant of 91,250 tons and a cancelled warrant of 8,000 tons, accounting for 8.06% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming were around 19,960 yuan/ton, with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Sanzhoulu Zhongba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual domestic refined zinc production was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.45%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 22, the average processing fee for 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average import processing fee was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 22, in the SHFE member trading and position ranking of zinc, the total trading volume was 212,095 lots, an increase of 73,759 lots; the total long position was 63,613 lots, an increase of 2,641 lots; the total short position was 64,185 lots, an increase of 2,371 lots [18].

Market Overview - As of December 4, SMM zinc ingot inventory totaled 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons from December 1, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1] - On December 4, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 49,250 tons, with canceled warrants at 5,075 tons, remaining unchanged. Total zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 54,325 tons [1] - The top 20 futures companies for Shanghai zinc had a total long position of 138,800 contracts and a short position of 116,500 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.19. The net position increased by 2,417 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures indicated that under the conditions of supply increase and stable demand, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market. However, the realization of this oversupply expectation depends on the further transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which requires time for internal adjustments within the industry chain. A key indicator to watch is whether the import mineral smelting profit and the Shanghai-London price ratio can significantly recover. The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling at the upper range of the price interval [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted strong expectations for domestic smelter production cuts, while overseas smelter production expectations for Q4 remain moderate. The constraints on zinc ingot supply are strengthening, supporting price increases. Weak U.S. employment data and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December maintain bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, advising against short positions in zinc. The export window for zinc ingots has opened, and Shanghai zinc is expected to test the annual line, with the possibility of breaking through and continuing to rise [3]