Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint of the Report The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as inventory decline and the opening of export windows. It is recommended to adopt a long - position trading strategy [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63% and an amplitude of 1.97%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,720 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US private data shows a negative non - farm payroll in October, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, and smelter profits have shrunk. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. Demand - side traditional peak - season effects are weak, and downstream demand recovery is insufficient. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates a strong long - position atmosphere [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position trading strategy [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price and Ratio**: The Shanghai zinc futures price rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the Shanghai zinc closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.63% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the London zinc closing price was 3,051 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton or 0.21% from October 31 [8] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: The top 20 net positions in Shanghai zinc increased. As of November 7, 2025, the top 20 net positions were 16,709 lots, an increase of 6,792 lots from October 31. The open interest was 226,883 lots, an increase of 15,774 lots or 7.47% from October 31 [11] - **Price Spreads**: The zinc - aluminum price spread remained stable, and the zinc - lead price spread rebounded. As of November 7, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from October 31. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from October 31 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: The domestic spot premium rebounded, and the LME zinc premium was at a high level. As of November 7, 2025, the 0 zinc ingot spot price was 22,650 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton or 1.48% from October 31. The spot discount was 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 104.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.73 US dollars/ton from October 30 [22] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or 2.29% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, a decrease of 3,208 tons or 3.1% from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 161,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons or 0.98% from October 30 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: Zinc ore production and imports increased. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In September 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 505,394.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.61% and a year - on - year increase of 25.18% [31] - **Supply Side**: - **Global Supply Shortage**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc supply was in shortage. In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, an increase of 94,600 tons or 8.35% year - on - year. Consumption was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 1,400 tons or 0.12% year - on - year. There was a surplus of 47,900 tons, compared with a deficit of 45,300 tons in the same period last year [36] - **High Production**: In September 2025, China's zinc production was 625,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 5.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [40] - **Export Window Open**: In September 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 22,677.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.05%. The export volume was 2,477.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 158.25% [43] - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to September 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. In September 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 37,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.69%. The export volume was 361,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.29% [46][47] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.96%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.229864 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 988.438 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [52][53] - **Infrastructure**: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27 from the previous month and an increase of 0.47 from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year [58] - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 80.3523 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In September 2025, air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 216.5707 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [60] - **Automobiles**: In September 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,226,375 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The production volume was 3,275,802 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% [64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views - Overall, in the context of continued tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, maintain a strategy of buying on dips for copper; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term due to good domestic apparent demand and potential overseas supply disruptions; for zinc, with poor domestic fundamentals but potential supply reduction at the end of the year, suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between December and February; for nickel and stainless steel, due to weak fundamentals and potential policy support in Indonesia, look for short - selling opportunities; for lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in lead prices and suggest cautious operation; for tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the medium - to - long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations in the short - term and cycle - bottom oscillations in the medium - to - long - term; for lithium carbonate, the price may change in the medium - to - long - term if certain demand conditions are met [1][2][3][7][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market行情受关税谈判进展主导，中美谈判后铜价回落测试10日均线支撑 [1] - 下游开工回落，高价下维持刚需接货，库存小幅去化略超预期，关注废铜政策对精废替代的影响 [1] - 听闻部分矿山在1.1w美金价位入场保值，伦铜近期可能有中等量级交仓到货，短期情绪或转冷静 [1] - 维持回调买入思路，关注伦铜1.03w美金附近支撑，可考虑卖1.03w以下看跌期权或逐步建立虚拟库存 [1] Aluminum - 国内表需好，铝水比例高，铝锭与铝材去库，海外供给有停产扰动推动价格上行 [1] - 中美经贸关系好转，美联储降息后停止缩表，需求边际好转 [1] - 低库存下长期以逢低持有为主 [1] Zinc - 本周锌价震荡上行，供应端国产和进口TC加速下滑，四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走紧，11月火烧云锌锭投产但增量兑现待考察 [2] - 需求端内需季节性疲软，海外欧洲需求一般，部分炼厂生产有阻力，国内社库震荡，海外LME库存去化，出口窗口打开 [2] - 国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端有阶段性减量，价格重心难深跌，短期单边建议观望，关注反套和12 - 02月差正套机会 [2] Nickel - 供应端纯镍产量高位维持，需求端整体偏弱，升水平稳，库存端国内外持续累库，短期基本面偏弱 [3] - 印尼矿端扰动持续，政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [3] Stainless Steel - 供应端钢厂10月排产环比小幅增加，需求端以刚需为主，成本方面镍铁、铬铁价格维持，库存高位维持 [7] - 印尼政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [7] Lead - 本周铅下游减产致铅价下跌，供应侧报废量同比偏弱，再生利润恢复激励复产但进度慢，精矿开工增加但供应紧张 [8] - 需求侧电池开工率下滑，成品库存高，需求有走弱预期，精废价差变化，再生复产出料 [8] - 预计下周内外铅价在17200 - 17500区间窄幅震荡，建议观望再生复产和仓单增加情况谨慎操作 [8] Tin - 本周锡价震荡，供应端矿端加工费低位，云锡检修结束，海外佤邦产出有分歧，印尼短期部分停产 [10] - 需求端高价下由刚性支撑，下游接单心理价位提高，海外LME库存低位震荡恢复 [10] - 国内基本面短期供需双弱，短期跟随宏观情绪，若宏观有系统性风险锡价下行空间大，中长期贴近成本线逢低持有 [10] Industrial Silicon - 本周新疆头部企业开工稳定，后续川滇开工数量将减少，枯水期供给环比下滑，但Q4供需处于平衡偏宽松状态，月度累库约3万吨 [11] - 短期价格预计震荡运行，中长期价格走势预计以季节性边际成本为锚的周期底部震荡为主 [11] Lithium Carbonate - 本周五受江西矿山复产传闻影响价格快速回落，原料端海外矿端挺价，市场可流通精矿现货偏紧 [11] - 锂盐端企业惜售，市场低价货源少，期现商难补库，下游在价格上行时观望，回调后买盘增强 [11] - 基差调整有限，成交集中在01 - 400至01 + 0元区间，若储能需求高景气且动力需求稳定，中长期格局转变时点可能在未来1 - 2年出现 [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a long - position thinking [3] 2. Core View - On the supply side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, the growth of zinc ore processing fees is slowing down, the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, smelters have large profit margins and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, the inflow of imported zinc decreases, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have increased, post - holiday market demand remains weak, and the spot premium is at a low level. LME inventories continue to decline, the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, and the tight situation has intensified [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 305 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 17.5 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,833 lots, up 299 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,935 lots, down 540 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,209 tons, down 1,059 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons, and the LME inventory is 37,275 tons, down 50 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,900 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons, and refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.31%, unchanged [3] 3.7行业消息 - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry has no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU and Dutch officials on trade issues. Reuters survey expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that on the supply side, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, supply growth has accelerated. Currently, import losses continue to widen, leading to a decrease in the inflow of imported zinc. - On the demand side, the downstream is at the end of the off - season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not significant, and the operating rate of processing enterprises shows a stable upward trend. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers maintain on - demand procurement, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. - Technically, positions are stable while prices are rising, with a cautious bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support at the 22,200 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 20,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,956 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 221,751 lots, a decrease of 1,484 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,939 lots, a decrease of 47 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 51,371 tons, an increase of 5,466 tons. - The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons, an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 50,525 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 30.17 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.67 US dollars/ton. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. Refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 144,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. - The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.33%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.34%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.05%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The incremental social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 in August was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and another three times in 2026. According to FedWatch, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a very small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3].

Market Review - On Tuesday evening, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures 2511 contract was 22,345 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.43% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 2, the zinc futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 38,955 tons, an increase of 998 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - From September 1, many galvanized sheet factories in Hebei have suspended operations, with no set date for resumption. Additionally, some regions are facing transportation restrictions, leading to maintenance or shutdowns of galvanized sheet factories [2] - As of September 2, LME zinc inventory has continued to decline to 55,600 tons, the lowest level since May 2023 [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted that macroeconomic and sector sentiment is positive, with LME zinc strengthening and Shanghai zinc slightly rising. However, there is upward pressure from accumulated domestic zinc inventory and a policy vacuum, limiting upward space. The support level of 20,000 CNY has been tested multiple times, suggesting short-term consolidation for Shanghai zinc with a lack of clear directional movement. It is recommended to observe and wait for more macro data guidance. In the medium to long term, the outlook is for increased supply and decreased demand for zinc, maintaining a view of selling on rebounds. The focus for Shanghai zinc is on the range of 22,000 to 22,600 CNY, while for LME zinc, it is 2,700 to 2,900 USD/ton [4] - Ruida Futures highlighted that in the macro aspect, the US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for six consecutive months, although new orders have improved and the price index has declined. On the fundamental side, both domestic and international zinc ore imports have increased, and processing fees for zinc ore continue to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, smelter profits are recovering, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New capacities are being released, and previously maintained capacities are resuming, accelerating supply growth. Currently, import losses are expanding, leading to a decrease in imported zinc inflow. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off-season, with manageable inventory pressure for galvanized sheets and a steady recovery trend in processing enterprise operating rates. Although zinc prices have dropped to low levels, downstream procurement remains demand-driven, resulting in a subdued transaction atmosphere. Domestic social inventory is increasing, while current spot premiums are stabilizing at low levels. Conversely, overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and spot premiums have risen, providing support for zinc prices. Technically, a decrease in positions and a price rebound indicate a weakening bearish atmosphere, with a focus on the support level of 22,200 CNY. The recommendation is to observe the market or to buy on dips with light positions [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].