行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 沪锌主力 2512 收于 22740 元/吨，涨 100，涨幅 0.44，放量减仓，持仓减 2967 手至 102938 手。11 月以来新加坡、香港、高雄陆续有交仓，12 日 LME 锌库存续增 575 吨至 35875 吨，较月初累计录增 2050 吨，Cash-3M 价差 128.30B，供应紧张有所缓解。国内北方矿山季节性减产，部分矿山完成年度 计划后主动控产，国内锌矿 TC 环比走弱。TC 下降挤压冶炼利润，但硫酸价 格仍稳中有升，关注 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-12 海外现货升水居高不下 重要数据 库存方面：截至2025-11-11，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.96万吨，较上期变化0.09万吨。截止2025-11-11，LME锌 库存为35300吨，较上一交易日变化400吨。 市场分析 11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，目前冶炼厂对矿端采购需求旺盛，矿端TC有望进一 步下滑。冶炼端开始面临压力，随着TC的大幅度回落，冶炼综合利润被严重压缩，高成本地区目前已经开始面临 综合亏损，冶炼积极性将会被压制，供给端压力有望超预期减小。海外仓单连续几日小幅增长，但库存依旧低位， 仓单风险依旧，现货升水持续高位。国内库存开始回落，难以达到前期预期的累库高度，出口窗口全面打开，后 期存在社会库存季节性明显回落的可能。微观数据几乎全面从利空向利多转变，宏观向好背景依旧不变。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为176.55美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化90元/吨至22660元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite signs of weakness in the crude oil market, fuel premiums for gasoline and diesel have surged, offsetting declines and leading to a rise in oil prices [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures are approaching $65 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of increases, driven by rising fuel premiums and technical buying from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) [1] - Energy Aspects highlights that a significant buying trigger for CTAs exists above $64.50 per barrel, suggesting an upward risk balance, although hedging flows may limit volatility [1] Group 2 - The refined oil market remains strong despite the softening crude oil futures curve, with fuel premiums at high levels, particularly in Europe where diesel benchmark prices have reached their highest since early last year [2] - Analysts from PVM suggest that without the strong support from the refined oil market, crude oil prices would likely be lower, and the narrowing of the spot premium between WTI and Brent is noteworthy [2] - OPEC is set to release its monthly market analysis report, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) will provide its annual outlook, with previous forecasts indicating a record surplus in global crude oil by 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year and early next year as geopolitical risk premiums decrease, with Brent crude potentially falling to the low $50s per barrel during the holiday season, before recovering to around $65 per barrel by the second half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations of an oversupply in the oil market by 2025, this situation has not yet materialized, with strong short-term demand indicated by the persistent "contango" in the market [2]. - As of October 13, Brent crude spot prices were assessed at $64.23 per barrel, significantly down from over $80 per barrel in January [2]. - Key factors contributing to market resilience include geopolitical "panic factors" from conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, as well as low oil inventories in developed countries [2]. Group 2: China's Role - China is seen as an exception in the oil market, with ongoing strategic oil reserve accumulation providing support [3]. - Although oil inventories in Western developed countries remain low, surplus crude is primarily flowing to China, which may serve as a "floating storage" for unsold oil from Iran and Venezuela [3]. - Demand for gasoline and diesel in China has plateaued, influenced by the trend towards electrification, despite growth in petrochemical demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Trends - Oil prices are currently in a downward trend, with more crude entering the market in the second half of the year due to steady increases in OPEC+ production and rising output from non-OPEC countries like Guyana, Norway, and Brazil [4]. - Since April, OPEC+ has announced multiple rounds of production increases [4]. Group 4: Risk Premiums - The oil market has been characterized by geopolitical risk premiums throughout the year, but these premiums are gradually dissipating as the market's ability to cope with geopolitical shocks improves [5]. - Recent developments, such as a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, have not fully resolved ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, which continues to impact energy markets [5][6]. - There is a possibility that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of sudden supply disruptions from key oil-producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which are currently facing unstable conditions [7].

Industry Summary - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders competing for dwindling inventories, pushing spot zinc prices to their highest premium levels in over 20 years [1] - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, marking the highest level since at least 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding immediate supply [1] - Despite ongoing supply pressures domestically, fundamental factors are showing marginal changes, with macro data trending upwards, suggesting a potential halt in zinc price declines [1] - There are emerging risks in overseas warehouse receipts, and the opening of zinc ingot export windows may lead to lower-than-expected domestic inventory accumulation, which could be a bullish factor if seasonal inventory declines occur [1] - The development of new energy and infrastructure investments is driving actual consumption, with estimated zinc consumption growth potentially reaching 5%, further supported by the integration of smelting and zinc alloy production [1] Company Summary - Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd. focuses on the mining, selection, and smelting of lead and zinc ores, with a zinc metal output of approximately 1.1 million tons [2] - Weiling Co., Ltd. acquired a 74.3% stake in Jiayu Mining in May, which holds a mining license for a 30,000-ton annual production capacity of various non-ferrous metals, including tungsten, tin, lead, and zinc [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe supply squeezes in decades, leading to a continuous rise in spot zinc prices for three consecutive days, with significant pressure on short sellers to cover positions or deliver physical metal [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Spot zinc prices have increased by 0.37% to $2,999 per ton, marking a third consecutive day of price rise [1]. - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, the highest level in over 20 years, indicating that spot demand exceeds immediate supply [1]. - LME warehouse zinc inventory has plummeted to 24,425 tons, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market with an annual consumption of 14 million tons [3][4]. Group 2: Market Pressure and Positioning - The significant long positions held by six independent entities correspond to at least three times the available inventory in the LME warehouse, putting short sellers in a precarious position [5]. - The Tom/next price spread, reflecting the cost of rolling over contracts, reached $30 per ton, the highest since 2022, indicating tight market conditions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the inability of LME inventories to attract new metal inflows may necessitate exports from China to alleviate short-term market pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The current market dynamics are characterized by a delicate balance, with low inventory levels making the market susceptible to shocks [4]. - The overall metal market is experiencing moderate movements, influenced by changes in trade outlook and uncertainty regarding risk assets, with copper prices slightly declining [6].

Group 1: Hot News - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, endorsing Trump's proposal of an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as the starting point for talks, and reaffirming that international borders should not be changed by force [2] - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month-on-month, and production increased by 2.71% month-on-month [2] - In 2026, the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in China is 13.65 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of urea [2] - Rio Tinto has stockpiled about 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore at the Simandou project in Guinea and will ship it in mid - November. WCS, which operates another Simandou iron mine, started hoarding ore in September. Simandou is expected to produce 120 million tons of iron ore annually at full capacity [2] - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is facing its worst supply squeeze in decades, with the premium of spot zinc over three - month futures soaring to $323 per ton, the highest since at least 1997 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] - In the holiday overseas market, the night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts show that non - metallic building materials rose 2.96%, precious metals 31.40%, oilseeds and oils 10.12%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 20.62%, coal, coke, and steel ore 13.02%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.67% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, the S&P 500 was flat, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the German DAX rose 0.29%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 0.36%, WTI crude oil rose 0.96%, London spot gold fell 5.31%, LME copper fell 0.89%, and the Wind commodity index rose 1.99% [6] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.35%, and the CBOE volatility index was flat [6]

2025 年 10 月 22 日 锌：外盘支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 21970 | 0.55% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2976 | 1.24% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 108521 | 10835 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 8609 | -2492 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 130442 | 5270 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 224013 | -200 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -50 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 230.29 | 100.29 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders scrambling for dwindling inventories, pushing spot zinc prices to their highest premium levels in over 20 years [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, marking the highest level since at least 1997, indicating a typical sign of spot demand exceeding immediate supply [1][3]. - Traders are rapidly purchasing remaining inventories, with six independent entities holding large long positions that correspond to at least three times the immediately available inventory in the LME storage system [3][4]. - The significant long positions put pressure on short sellers, who may face substantial losses if unable to deliver physical metal [4]. Group 2: Inventory Situation - LME zinc inventories have plummeted to near historical lows due to production cuts by Western smelters following a collapse in processing profits, with only 24,425 tons available for buyers, insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market consuming 14 million tons annually [4]. - The current low inventory levels create a fragile balance in the market, making it susceptible to shocks, as noted by industry experts [4]. Group 3: Price Discrepancies and Export Opportunities - The disparity in zinc prices between the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has prompted some Chinese smelters to plan exports, which may provide short-term relief for buyers in the LME market, although it may not fundamentally resolve the inventory shortage [5].

格隆汇10月21日｜伦敦金属交易所(LME)锌市场正面临数十年来最严重的供应紧缩，交易商争相抢购支 撑交易所合约的持续萎缩库存。现货锌价较三个月期货合约的溢价飙升至每吨323美元，创下至少自 1997年以来最高水平。这一"现货升水"现象是现货需求超过供应的典型标志。随着西方多家炼厂因加工 费暴跌而减产，LME仓库库存已骤降至2023年创纪录的低点附近，买家压力持续累积数月。目前LME 仓库中仅剩24425吨锌可供提取——这甚至不足以满足全球1400万吨年消费量市场一日之需。现货与三 个月期锌价差飙升之际，LME数据显示交易商正疯狂争夺剩余库存。有六家独立机构持有LME库存多 单及未来两日内到期合约，其总持仓规模相当于LME仓库立即可用库存量的至少300%。另一方面，现 货升水可能使无实物交割能力的空头面临巨额亏损。 ...