Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing upward pressure due to ongoing consumption in China's investment and industrial sectors, leading to a tight supply situation and significant premiums in the spot market [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - March silver futures rose by $3.121 to $83.505 per ounce during the Asian trading session on February 12 [1]. - Despite recent price volatility, silver's price fluctuations have narrowed, indicating a more stable market environment [3]. - Domestic producers and traders are facing significant challenges in fulfilling backlogged orders, which has contributed to rising prices and a situation where spot prices exceed futures prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current tight supply of silver is attributed to ongoing inventory depletion and a severe shortage of deliverable silver, prompting institutions to continue exerting pressure on the market for profit [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen recent contracts trading at record premiums, reflecting strong market preference for physical delivery [3]. - Short sellers in the Shanghai Gold Exchange have been paying carry costs to long positions since late December to avoid delivery, highlighting the scarcity of available silver for settlement [3]. Group 3: Price Resistance and Support Levels - The bullish target for March silver futures is to successfully break above the strong resistance level of $92.015, while the bearish target is to drop below the strong support level of $63.90 [4]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $86.12 and $87.50, while the first support level is at $80.41, followed by $80.00 [4].

2月12日，在周三的美国交易时段早盘，贵金属市场呈现出明显的攀升态势。GTC泽汇资本表示，由于 市场在关键就业报告发布前涌现大量避险需求，黄金与白银价格均表现稳健，其中白银再次占据领涨地 位。目前4月黄金期货价格已触及5119.10美元，而3月白银价格也同步上行至85.465美元，整体市场处于 积极的反弹模式。 针对今日异常的"就业周三"现象，由于此前政府停摆导致劳工部推迟发布数据，市场正高度关注即将揭 晓的1月非农就业报告。GTC泽汇资本认为，考虑到基准数据的下修预期以及失业率可能维持在4.4%的 历史高点，市场情绪偏向谨慎。此外，美国FAA突然暂停埃尔帕索机场所有航班的举动引发了地缘安全 疑虑，这种不明原因的安保限制进一步强化了贵金属作为避险资产的吸引力。 实物供应的紧缺也为价格提供了支撑。GTC泽汇资本表示，亚洲市场的投资与工业需求正迅速消耗库 存，导致当地生产商面临订单积压。目前上海期货交易所的近月合约溢价已创下纪录，市场深陷现货升 水结构。这种由于交割材料枯竭引发的库存危机，使得空头持有者不得不支付延期费来避免实物交割， 凸显了现货市场的极度稀缺性。 从外部市场环境来看，美元小幅回调与油价上涨为金银 ...

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices have stabilized after significant fluctuations, but supply tightness in the Chinese market persists, driven by investment and industrial demand depleting inventories [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of February 10, international spot silver prices are fluctuating around $80 per ounce, with the gold-silver ratio stabilizing near 61 times [1][2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's near-month silver contract premium has surged to record levels, indicating strong demand for immediate delivery silver [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The extreme spot premium is driven by a supply crisis and depletion of deliverable materials, with silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange at their lowest levels in over a decade [3]. - Analysts believe the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term unless smelters can significantly increase production during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, which is traditionally a low production season [3]. Group 3: Investment and Industrial Demand - Current market demand is fueled by two main drivers: sustained high physical investment demand and concentrated procurement in industrial sectors such as solar energy [4]. - In Shenzhen, the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China, demand for silver investment bars remains strong, with sellers quickly finding buyers willing to pay premiums [5]. - Industrial demand is also a significant factor, as Chinese solar manufacturers require large amounts of silver for photovoltaic panel production, leading to increased purchasing ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate policy expiration [7].

Core Viewpoint - The London spot prices for gold and silver have surpassed the New York COMEX futures prices, marking a rare market anomaly that typically occurs under extreme supply-demand imbalances [1]. Group 1: Price Comparison - As of 15:10 Beijing time, the London gold spot price was reported at $4,832 per ounce, while the COMEX gold futures price was at $4,826 per ounce [1]. - The London silver spot price was $94 per ounce, compared to the COMEX silver futures price of $93 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The unusual situation of London spot prices exceeding COMEX futures prices could lead to supply-demand imbalances and hinder arbitrage opportunities, potentially triggering cross-market adjustments [1]. - This scenario may result in increased borrowing rates and heightened short squeeze risks in the short term [1].

Group 1 - The LME copper spot price has significantly risen compared to future contract prices, indicating that traders may be extracting large amounts of inventory from the exchange's warehouses [1] - The premium for the copper contract expiring on Wednesday was $64 higher than the next day's contract, a market condition known as backwardation, suggesting an increase in immediate demand [1] - This price movement is among the highest levels recorded since 1998, reflecting increased volatility in the LME copper market [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, three independent institutions held at least 30% of the open interest in the January contracts, which could allow them to withdraw over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the available inventory in the LME network [4] - The surge in the Tom/next spread indicates that short position holders may face significant losses if they do not roll over their contracts [4] Group 3 - The current market conditions signal a more severe structural supply constraint in the global copper industry, with many analysts predicting a deep shortage by the end of 2028 [5] - Although global copper inventories are currently sufficient, they are heavily concentrated in U.S. warehouses, leading to record shipments to the U.S. due to anticipated tariff changes [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in LME copper inventory, with an addition of 8,875 tons, brings the total to 156,300 tons, driven by inflows into New Orleans and Baltimore warehouses [8] - The fluctuations in the price spread have had minimal impact on the three-month copper contract, which experienced a maximum daily drop of 1.4% due to broader market sell-offs [8]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risk premium is rising, and the continued decline of the US dollar index supports the zinc market, with overnight London zinc prices increasing by over 2% [1] - The overnight London zinc price opened at $3,157 per ton, reached a high of $3,222.5, and closed at $3,214, up $65 or 2.05%, with a trading volume of 11,180 lots [1] - The Shanghai zinc market also showed strength, with the main contract closing at 24,320 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan or 1.04% [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to trigger a rush for exports and create short-term demand benefits [2] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are experiencing increased losses, leading to further production cuts, while the import window for zinc concentrate has reopened after a significant reduction in losses [2] - Despite the recovery of production in previously restricted enterprises, the cold weather in northern China has dampened end-user purchasing enthusiasm, leading to cautious attitudes towards future demand and winter stockpiling [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue their weak performance with high volatility due to factors such as geopolitical risk subsiding, index adjustment concerns, and risk - control measures from the exchange. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains intact, and investors can wait for opportunities to buy on dips after the current risks are released [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 8, 2026, London gold spot was at $4434.31/oz, down 0.2% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $76.44/oz, down 3.2%. COMEX gold was at $4442.80/oz, down 0.3%, and COMEX silver was at $76.12/oz, down 3.4%. Shanghai gold futures' main contract closed at 997.94 yuan/g, down 0.73%, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 18450 yuan/kg, down 5.91% [3][4]. - The price differences and their changes were also presented, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price difference, which decreased by 6.1% from January 7 to January 8 [4]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 7, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1067.13 tons, with no change from the previous day. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% compared to January 6 [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 8, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, unchanged from the previous day, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.22% to 637647 kg [4]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On January 8, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.02, up 0.01% from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14% [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis - After the geopolitical risk in Latin America subsided, concerns about the adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and risk - control measures from the exchange led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. In the short term, prices may remain weak and volatile. In the long term, the upward logic of precious metals remains valid [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Core Viewpoint - A Swiss trading company, Mercuria, executed a significant copper withdrawal from LME warehouses in Asia, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on price differentials and potential tariff implications in the U.S. market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mercuria's withdrawal of over 40,000 tons of copper on December 2, valued at approximately $460 million, led to a surge in LME warehouse copper withdrawal requests, reaching the highest single-day increase since 2013 [1]. - The U.S. market is experiencing heightened demand for copper, driven by policy expectations and potential tariffs, prompting traders to rush shipments to the U.S. before any new tariffs are implemented [3][5]. - The current market conditions have resulted in a significant price disparity, with Comex copper futures trading over $1,400 per ton higher than LME prices, creating what Mercuria's executives describe as an optimal arbitrage opportunity [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Effects - The movement of copper to the U.S. has caused a severe imbalance in global inventory distribution, with U.S. warehouses overflowing while LME inventories are rapidly depleting; Mercuria's withdrawal accounted for 35% of LME's total inventory at that time [6]. - The drastic reduction in LME inventory has led to a sharp increase in spot prices, with the premium for immediate delivery copper rising to $88 per ton by early December, a reversal from the previous month when futures prices were higher [8]. - The upcoming LME contract settlement date on December 17 raises concerns for short sellers who may struggle to fulfill delivery obligations due to low inventory levels, potentially triggering a "short squeeze" that could further elevate prices [8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Global copper supply is under pressure, with significant production disruptions reported from major mines, including a projected reduction of 200,000 tons from Indonesia's Grasberg mine due to a landslide [11]. - Chilean copper mines are also facing operational issues, leading to lowered production targets, highlighting the fragility of the copper supply chain [11]. - The increasing demand for copper from sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers is expected to sustain long-term growth in copper consumption, further complicating supply dynamics [11]. Group 4: Mercuria's Strategic Positioning - Mercuria has transitioned from a traditional oil trading giant to a significant player in the metals trading sector, employing a "light asset" model that leverages financial instruments to secure upstream supply agreements [13]. - The recent copper withdrawal exemplifies Mercuria's ability to influence market dynamics and pricing structures, showcasing its growing power in the copper market [13]. - The ongoing "copper relocation" led by trading giants like Mercuria is reshaping global resource flows, reflecting broader concerns over resource security amid geopolitical uncertainties [13].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the massive cancellation of LME copper inventories marks the entry of the copper market into a volatile "mid-stage," driven by the siphoning effect of the U.S. market, which forces non-U.S. buyers to scramble for spot purchases, leading LME inventories to fall below the 100,000-ton threshold, triggering an asymmetric bullish channel for copper prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A record cancellation of 50,000 tons of copper warehouse receipts at LME is the largest single-day operation since 2013, signaling the end of the bullish market's "beginning" and indicating a transition to a more volatile and upward trend [3]. - The cancellation event has significantly boosted market sentiment, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 5% over the past week, reaching a new high of over $11,500 per ton [4]. - The ongoing structural tension in the global copper market is a direct response to the strong demand pull from the U.S. market, leading to supply shortages in other regions and forcing them to seek spot resources from LME [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The core basis for the bullish outlook is the severe mismatch in global inventories and the continuous attraction of refined copper to the U.S. market, reshaping global copper trade flows and pricing mechanisms [5]. - The price differential between the U.S. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and LME remains significant, with the COMEX copper contract for March 2026 trading approximately $390 per ton higher than its LME counterpart [5][8]. - High annual contract premiums are pushing consumers outside the U.S. (such as in Asia and Europe) to abandon high-priced long-term contracts in favor of seeking supplies in the spot market [10]. Group 3: Inventory Levels and Price Mechanisms - The LME's on-warrant inventory has dropped below the critical psychological and technical level of 100,000 tons, which historically indicates a high likelihood of entering a backwardation state where spot prices exceed futures prices [4][11]. - Historical data shows that when LME inventories fall below 100,000 tons, the probability of weekly price increases for three-month copper rises to 57%, with a median weekly increase of 0.64% [13][15]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant upward potential for the backwardation spread, as the current price dynamics indicate a strong bullish signal when inventories are low and decreasing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley outlines a "bull end game" scenario where the ongoing tightness in the refined copper market outside the U.S. leads to continuous consumption of LME inventories, pushing LME prices higher and steepening the backwardation structure [18]. - Despite the clear long-term bullish logic, the market is expected to experience a "tug-of-war" in the short term, as not all major consumer markets have fully adapted to rising copper prices, potentially providing some breathing space [19]. - The company remains confident that short-term opportunistic exports by smelters will not be sufficient to alleviate the overall supply tightness, maintaining a bullish outlook on LME copper prices [19].