Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The market is in the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recent tin price fluctuations have curbed market purchasing willingness. Downstream buyers mainly adopt the strategies of "replenishing inventory based on rigid demand and taking delivery with post - pricing", resulting in few high - price transactions. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. Technically, the position has declined, and both long and short positions are cautious. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, with an expected range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the price to fluctuate and adjust [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,490 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,215 US dollars/ton, up 530 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai Tin is - 560 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 27,212 lots, down 307 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 302 lots, down 109 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,950 tons, up 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 535 tons, down 45 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,293 tons, up 7 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 265,960 yuan/ton, up 1,890 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 0.5 US dollars/ton, up 15.5 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly production of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 172,850 yuan/ton, up 640 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern. Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Strong macro and weak demand lead to a rapid decline in spot premiums. Although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience and overall consumption is not bad, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a rapid decline in spot premiums in the spot market, which have now generally turned into discounts. The overseas inventory has the expectation of delivery risk, and the domestic social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, which is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may re - dominate the price trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $4.75/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 540 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 105 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,420 yuan/ton and closed at 22,925 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 251,405 lots, an increase of 100,339 lots from the previous trading day. The positions were 133,314 lots, an increase of 17,346 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,415 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 21, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 118,225 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - In the spot market, due to the policy - driven rise in absolute prices and weak consumption, the spot premium further declined. On the cost side, the imported ore TC continues to rise, and the smelting profit is maintained, with the expectation of an increase in supply remaining unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very enthusiastic about purchasing from the ore end. On the consumption side, although the downstream开工率 shows relative resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Core Viewpoint - Opec+'s unexpected production increase has not lowered oil prices but instead intensified the competition for global oil market share, indicating a fundamental shift in the strategy of oil-producing countries [1] Group 1: Opec+ Production Decisions - Opec+ agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, significantly higher than the previous months' increase of 411,000 barrels per day [1] - The increase is seen as a clear signal to competitors, with Opec+ abandoning its previous price management strategy in favor of capturing market share through volume [1][4] - The organization plans to fully reverse last year's voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by September, a year ahead of schedule [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Tension - Current oil market tensions may be severely underestimated, with key indicators suggesting actual supply is tighter than official statistics indicate [2] - Traditional market indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are being challenged in their reliability due to extreme weather and refinery capacity reductions [2][5] - The U.S. shale oil industry is facing production bottlenecks, with the Energy Information Administration lowering its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to below 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026 [3] Group 3: Refinery Capacity and Economic Signals - Refinery profit margins remain healthy despite broader economic concerns, indicating a need to maintain high refinery operating rates [7] - Europe is set to lose approximately 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity due to closures, which may impact market dynamics [7] - The full impact of refinery closures may not be realized until inventory levels begin to decline [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Demand Outlook - Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, have provided significant support for rising oil prices [8] - The global oil demand outlook has improved, alleviating previous concerns about trade disputes affecting economic growth and oil demand [8] - Seasonal demand during the summer driving season is also contributing to upward pressure on oil prices, despite a year-to-date decline of 4.7% in WTI crude oil prices [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a three-month high, testing the $10,000 per ton mark, closing at $9,934.00, up $65.00 or 0.66% [1][2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, supported by policies in exports, consumption, and infrastructure [3][4] - The overall supply of copper remains tight, with LME registered warehouse stocks down 66% since mid-February, contributing to strong demand and a premium in the spot market [4] Group 2 - The US manufacturing sector continues to show weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.0, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting potential action later in the year [5] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum slightly up by $1.00 or 0.04%, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced declines [6][7][8][9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]