2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2026/1/8 | 4434. 31 | 76. 44 | 4442. 80 | 76. 12 | 997.94 | 18458. 00 | 995. 49 | 18516. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 现货升水保持强势 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.67美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-40元/吨至24300元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-30元/吨至24210元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至24220元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水30元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-07沪锌主力合约开于24300元/吨，收于24330元/吨，较前一交易日195元/吨，全天交易日成交 187735手，全天交易日持仓91603手，日内价格最高点达到24515元/吨，最低点达到24145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-07，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-07，LME 锌库存为105500吨，较上一交易日变化-275吨。 市场分析 现货市场供应依旧偏紧，贸易商报价升水坚挺，部分地区升水持续走强，虽然下游采购畏高，但刚性需求仍在。 国产矿TC停止下跌，进口矿仍在小幅回落，虽然经历冬储后冶炼厂原料库存有所增加，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - A Swiss trading company, Mercuria, executed a significant copper withdrawal from LME warehouses in Asia, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on price differentials and potential tariff implications in the U.S. market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mercuria's withdrawal of over 40,000 tons of copper on December 2, valued at approximately $460 million, led to a surge in LME warehouse copper withdrawal requests, reaching the highest single-day increase since 2013 [1]. - The U.S. market is experiencing heightened demand for copper, driven by policy expectations and potential tariffs, prompting traders to rush shipments to the U.S. before any new tariffs are implemented [3][5]. - The current market conditions have resulted in a significant price disparity, with Comex copper futures trading over $1,400 per ton higher than LME prices, creating what Mercuria's executives describe as an optimal arbitrage opportunity [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Effects - The movement of copper to the U.S. has caused a severe imbalance in global inventory distribution, with U.S. warehouses overflowing while LME inventories are rapidly depleting; Mercuria's withdrawal accounted for 35% of LME's total inventory at that time [6]. - The drastic reduction in LME inventory has led to a sharp increase in spot prices, with the premium for immediate delivery copper rising to $88 per ton by early December, a reversal from the previous month when futures prices were higher [8]. - The upcoming LME contract settlement date on December 17 raises concerns for short sellers who may struggle to fulfill delivery obligations due to low inventory levels, potentially triggering a "short squeeze" that could further elevate prices [8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Global copper supply is under pressure, with significant production disruptions reported from major mines, including a projected reduction of 200,000 tons from Indonesia's Grasberg mine due to a landslide [11]. - Chilean copper mines are also facing operational issues, leading to lowered production targets, highlighting the fragility of the copper supply chain [11]. - The increasing demand for copper from sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers is expected to sustain long-term growth in copper consumption, further complicating supply dynamics [11]. Group 4: Mercuria's Strategic Positioning - Mercuria has transitioned from a traditional oil trading giant to a significant player in the metals trading sector, employing a "light asset" model that leverages financial instruments to secure upstream supply agreements [13]. - The recent copper withdrawal exemplifies Mercuria's ability to influence market dynamics and pricing structures, showcasing its growing power in the copper market [13]. - The ongoing "copper relocation" led by trading giants like Mercuria is reshaping global resource flows, reflecting broader concerns over resource security amid geopolitical uncertainties [13].

摩根大通指出，LME巨量注销标志铜市进入波动剧烈的"中场阶段"。核心逻辑是美国虹吸效应迫使非美地区买家抢购现货，致LME库存跌破 10万吨阈值，触发铜价进入不对称看涨通道。其"看涨终局"预判，LME价格必须大涨至足以扭转美铜套利窗口、迫使资源从美国流出，才能 终结这场由库存错配引发的牛市。 一笔创纪录的伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜库存注销，正将铜市推向一个更剧烈波动的看涨阶段。 摩根大通发布的最新金属周报显示，本周三LME仓库一笔高达5万公吨的铜仓单被注销，这是自2013年以来最大规模的单日操作。这一事件 被该行视为铜价牛市"开端的结束"，预示着市场将进入一个波动性更剧烈、上涨趋势更明确的"中场阶段"。 这一突发事件迅速点燃了市场情绪。受此提振，LME三个月期铜价在过去一周内上涨5%，并于周三一度突破每吨11500美元，创下新高。 这种持续存在的套利空间，清晰地激励着全球精炼铜流向美国。其直接后果是，其他地区的买家必须为获取铜资源支付更高的价格。 据新闻报道，主要生产商智利国家铜业公司（CODELCO）向主要消费中心报出的年度长单溢价已高达325美元/吨及以上，在亚洲市场尤其 呈现出急剧的跳涨。 | Light ...

Core Viewpoint - A record cancellation of copper inventory at the London Metal Exchange (LME) is pushing the copper market into a more volatile bullish phase, marking the end of the initial bull market phase and indicating a transition to a more pronounced upward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant cancellation of 50,000 tons of copper warrants at LME is the largest single-day operation since 2013, reflecting increasing structural tensions in the global copper market [1]. - The cancellation has led to a 5% increase in LME three-month copper prices over the past week, with prices surpassing $11,500 per ton, reaching a new high [1]. - The U.S. market's strong demand for refined copper is causing supply shortages in other regions, prompting them to seek resources from LME [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The bullish outlook is primarily driven by severe mismatches in global inventory and the continuous attraction of refined copper to the U.S. market [2]. - The price difference between the U.S. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and LME remains significant, with COMEX copper contracts for March 2026 priced approximately $390 per ton higher than LME contracts [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Mechanism - The high annual contract premiums are forcing consumers outside the U.S. to shift from locking in high-priced long-term contracts to seeking supplies in the spot market [4]. - The LME's on-warrant inventory has dropped below the critical psychological level of 100,000 tons, which historically triggers a "backwardation" state where spot prices exceed futures prices [5][7]. - Historical data shows that when LME on-warrant inventory is below 100,000 tons, the probability of price increases rises to 57%, with a median weekly increase of 0.64% [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The current market dynamics suggest a "bull end game," where the tightening of refined copper markets outside the U.S. leads to continuous consumption of LME inventory [11]. - As LME prices rise, they may incentivize copper to flow from the U.S. market back to LME or to regions with higher demand for spot supplies, aiming for global market rebalancing [11]. - Despite a clear long-term bullish logic, the market may experience short-term fluctuations as not all major consumer markets have fully adapted to rising prices [12].

一笔创纪录的伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜库存注销，正将铜市推向一个更剧烈波动的看涨阶段。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通发布的最新金属周报显示，本周三LME仓库一笔高达5万公吨的铜仓单被 注销，这是自2013年以来最大规模的单日操作。这一事件被该行视为铜价牛市"开端的结束"，预示着市 场将进入一个波动性更剧烈、上涨趋势更明确的"中场阶段"。 这一突发事件迅速点燃了市场情绪。受此提振，LME三个月期铜价在过去一周内上涨5%，并于周三一 度突破每吨11500美元，创下新高。 分析师Gregory C. Shearer及其团队认为，此次仓单注销并非孤立事件，而是对全球铜市日益加剧的结构 性紧张的直接反应。其背后是美国市场对精炼铜的持续强劲"拉动"效应，导致全球其他地区面临供应短 缺，从而被迫转向LME寻求现货资源。 这一动态使得LME可用于交割的"在库仓单"（on-warrant）库存骤降至不足10万吨的关键心理和技术水 平。摩根大通警告，当库存降至如此低位时，市场极易进入现货价格高于期货价格的"现货升 水"（backwardation）状态，并开启一个价格更具不对称上涨风险的交易环境。 供需失衡的根源：美国需求虹吸与全 ...

12月5日，最新消息显示，大宗商品贸易巨头摩科瑞（Mercuria）已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所（LME）的亚洲仓库提取大 量铜。 自11月以来，现货升水一路走高，并在周三触及每吨88美元，为10月13日以来最高。相比之下，11月19日市场还处在约35美元"期 货升水"（contango） 的状态。 分析认为，离开LME体系的大部分铜被运往了美国。先前，特朗普政府给予了精炼铜关税豁免。但之后，美国通过《国防生产法 案》将铜列为关键矿产，试图保障自身铜资源供应。 上周，摩科瑞高管Kostas Bintas再度发表看多铜价的预测。他还提到，近期向美国运送金属的热潮可能会抽干世界其他地区的库 存，进而导致全球铜价不停攀升。 四位知情人士透露，摩科瑞已于12月2日取消了仓单，预定提取LME存放在亚洲仓库中的、超过4万吨铜金属。按当前价格计算，这 批铜的价值约为4.6亿美元。 LME当天的数据也显示，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨（按吨数计，这是2013年以来的最大增幅），达到56875吨，占 LME总库存的35%。 摩科瑞的行动使得现货铜合约相对于三个月期铜期货价格的溢价（即"现货升水"、现货对期货溢 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a historic high, significantly outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 105% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 3, international spot silver rose by 0.8%, reaching a record high of $58.94 per ounce [1] - The domestic futures market also showed strong performance, with the main Shanghai silver contract rising over 2%, achieving eight consecutive days of gains and continuously breaking historical highs [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following a silver shortage in London in October, silver inventories from China and the U.S. have flowed into London, alleviating the tight situation, but inventories continue to decline [1] - Shanghai silver inventory has dropped to a near ten-year low, with near-month contract prices exceeding those of far-month contracts, indicating a "backwardation" structure that reflects short-term supply pressure [1] - A global decline in inventories has led to significant signs of warehouse congestion in the spot market, with tight physical delivery conditions triggering a chain reaction of short squeezes that may further drive up silver prices [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - China International Futures believes that silver's rebound potential may be greater than that of gold [1] - While gold remains in an upward channel, it is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations after rapid gains, with future catalysts dependent on the interplay of "declining real interest rates" and "weaker dollar" [1] - In contrast, silver shows stronger short-term certainty, with the historically high "gold-silver ratio" indicating substantial room for correction, and increasing demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics providing support for silver prices [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly increased, boosting precious metal prices [2][5] - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to strong market expectations for a dovish stance from the Fed [2] - Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed results, with a notable increase in job creation but a rise in the unemployment rate, indicating potential economic challenges [3][4] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged due to a significant drop in inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, reaching a near 10-year low, raising concerns about short-term supply tightness [1][5] - The global decline in silver inventories has led to a noticeable squeeze in the physical market, which may further drive up international silver prices [5][6] - The potential for tariffs on silver imports by the U.S. government could exacerbate supply constraints, contributing to upward pressure on silver prices [6]

2025.11. 29 本文字数：2740，阅读时长大约4分钟 感恩节停摆 期货是金融市场的核心工具，交易商、投机者及企业可通过期货对各类基础资产进行对冲或持仓操作。芝商所本月早些时候的数据显示，10月衍生品日 均交易量达2630万份合约。芝商所提供涵盖多领域的期货及期货期权产品，具体包括大宗商品、利率、股票指数、外汇和加密货币。 一则市场猜测 值得注意的是，芝商所期货交易突然中断引发网络热议 ——尤其是白银投资者，他们注意到此次故障发生在白银期货触及54美元上方历史新高仅几分钟 后。社交媒体上却涌现出大量猜测，认为此次交易中断与白银价格持续突破有关。 作者 | 第一财 经 樊志菁 当地时间周四，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）遭遇系统故障，导致全球外汇、大宗商品及股票期货交易陷入停滞，投资者和经纪商"无从下手"。这也 是芝商所时隔11年再次发生重大故障，与上次仅涉及农产品合约不同，这一次影响范围更大。 与此同时，白银在交易恢复后快速拉升创历史新高，让"拉网线"的市场传言愈演愈烈，该兼具工业和金融属性的贵金属行情未来怎么走无疑将成为年末 金融市场的一大焦点。 作为全球规模最大的交易所运营商，芝商所于美国东部时间 ...