Group 1: Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [2] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel disk oscillated weakly during the day. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals had no obvious changes [3] - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price was released, and the ore end was raised. The supply concern in the ore sector has not been eliminated [3] - In the new energy sector, there is still support. The continuous rise in cobalt prices has driven up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, and subsequent strength may continue [3] - The nickel - iron quotation is still firm, but the actual high - price transactions have declined. The stainless steel disk lost the 12,900 - yuan line during the day, and the actual transactions were limited [3] - At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, and the overall market was weak [3] Group 4: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt [5] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [5] - Stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks [5] - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - The pure nickel inventory is high [5] - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [5] - The uncertainty of the EU's stainless steel import tariff has increased [5] - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [5] - Stainless steel spot transactions are relatively weak [5] Group 5: Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main continuous is 121,500 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 560 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 23.23% to 62,653 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.40% to 50,421 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest value of stainless steel main continuous is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 15 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 33.50% to 116,925 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.79% to 131,185 lots [5] Group 6: Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 228,444 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous period [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous period [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons from the previous period [6] Group 7: Industry News - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]