Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1] - There are no new contradictions in the news and fundamentals of nickel, and it is digesting recent sentiment. The nickel ore benchmark price in July was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support. The transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, affected by weak downstream demand. For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels and sell call options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for options [2] - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan and sell put options, and also buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel is oscillating strongly. There are no new contradictions in news and fundamentals, mainly digesting recent sentiment [3] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support [3] - The intraday transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, mainly affected by weak downstream demand [3] - For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts [3] - The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] 3.利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The ban on cobalt mines in Congo continues [4] - Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons [4] - Policies have a positive impact on the overall new energy chain [4] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [4] 4.利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [5] - The contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain have deepened, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [5] - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered [6] 5. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 570 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume increased by 14.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.73% [6] - For stainless steel, the latest price of the main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume decreased by 20.00%, and the open interest decreased by 0.10% [7] 6. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period [8] - The LME nickel inventory is 203,628 tons, a decrease of 474 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 992.1 tons, a decrease of 8.5 tons [8] - The inventory of nickel pig iron is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].