2026 年 3 月 1 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 行情观点： 沪镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性。印尼目前并行配额审批、违规开采罚款、环境治理等 多方面资源管理动作，盘面投机属性主导，持仓量高位仍在增加，盘面体现为"预期定方向，现实定弹 性"。虽然现实面镍仍然是高库存累库，或限制镍价的弹性，但是在边际上，矿端紧缺矛盾的预期逐步照 进现实，基于配额供应担忧，以及印尼季节性斋月，叠加菲律宾雨季难以回补，矿端偏紧的现实在 3 月难 有明显缓和，目前印尼镍矿明显上涨，1.6%品位镍矿总价 2 月同比/环比+23/+14 美金至 68 美金，个别成 交或更高，传导至一体化火法现金成本抬升至 13 万元/吨。在估值角度来看，若矿端矛盾在二季度至年中 降温，或出现年中至三季度湿法投产进度取代火法边际成本的逻辑，不过，短线边际成本仍然是一体化火 法路径，而且在 3 月印尼补充配额和菲律宾供应释放故事无法确定的阶段，交易面仍然是以现实矿端矛盾 为主，而且边际成本上移或增加区 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

2026年1月印尼政府预计镍矿全年生产配额为2.5亿吨—2.6亿吨，较2025年的生产配额大幅下滑。 1月16日沪镍期货库存录得48180.00吨，较上一交易日增加1530.00吨。 机构观点 1月26日，沪镍期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报149540.00元/吨，大幅上涨3.12%。 【消息面汇总】 1月23日讯，上期所镍期货仓单42067吨，环比上个交易日增加483吨。 金瑞期货：印尼供应扰动叙事继续支撑镍价，近期保持高位震荡。周末消息面再生扰动，印尼能矿部长 表示希望镍价保持在高价，1月23日一艘载有约5万吨镍矿的由菲律宾驶往广东的运输船沉没，5万吨镍 矿对应约500金属吨镍铁，占国内镍铁月产量约2%，实际影响或较小。展望后市，有色市场情绪较好， 镍价或再迎来拉涨，短期偏多看待，短期预计沪镍主力核心区间【13.0，17.0】万元/吨。 广州期货：综合而言，目前印尼镍矿配额仍在审批中，印尼削减镍矿配额预期与库存高位积累博弈，短 期镍价或宽幅震荡，主要运行区间参考14-15万，警惕多头资金获利了结或印尼政策不及预期风险。 ...

Group 1 - Nickel industry stocks rose in early trading, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 11.22% to HKD 25.78, Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up 9.14% to HKD 39.16, and Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) up 4.63% to HKD 2.94 [1] - The price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange closed at 18,785, an increase of 6.7%, while the Shanghai nickel futures closed at 148,930, up 5.6% [1] - Indonesia is expected to approve a nickel ore production quota of approximately 260 million tons by 2026, according to local media citing mining officials [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures anticipates that the theoretical demand for nickel ore in Indonesia will exceed the currently proposed target of 260 million wet tons by approximately 15% in 2026, as it is a period of concentrated release of new capacity for Indonesian hydrometallurgical (HPAL) projects [1] - If this demand projection materializes, it could lead to significant tightening expectations in the market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently fluctuating with the broader market, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for 2026 quota applications. The overall quota in 2025 is in surplus, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews. The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. The nickel - iron price has limited upward momentum, and its center of gravity has declined. Stainless steel prices rose slightly during the day, with active spot transactions, but its upward momentum is insufficient, and it may fluctuate widely, waiting for clear signals [3]. - The WTO's ruling that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year are positive for stainless steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile of 3.3% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Nickel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Nickel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 200 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 47,708 tons, with no change from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons; nickel - pig iron inventory is 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. - **Stainless Steel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 45 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The stainless steel social inventory is 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors** - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant. - India's BIS certification exemption is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors** - The inventory of pure nickel is high. - The center of gravity of nickel - iron has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation cycle. - The stainless steel market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange)**: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - **Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel**: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **LME Nickel Inventory**: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Social Inventory**: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trends of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are mainly volatile, with a late - session rebound. The fundamentals have no significant changes recently. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and there is a certain easing sentiment regarding Sino - US tariffs [3]. - The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum and may run weakly, and stainless steel may see a slight downward shift in its center of gravity [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the shortening of nickel ore quota license periods in Indonesia, the progress of nickel - integrated smelter construction, and favorable news for stainless steel exports. Negative factors include high pure nickel inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak demand for nickel iron and stainless steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.87% and a historical percentile of 6.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there is a future production procurement demand and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio when facing inventory impairment risks [3]. - **Procurement Management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options when worried about rising raw material prices [3]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three show different degrees of increase compared to the previous period, with the LME nickel 3M also rising by 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 19.84%, and open interest decreased by 3.57% [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data** - The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three also increased. Trading volume increased by 11.18%, and open interest increased by 4.01% [7]. - **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 2,866 tons to 43,694 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 905.6 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory increased by 584 tons to 29,236 tons [7]. Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay; the construction of the nickel - integrated smelter jointly promoted by CATL and Antam continues; the WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal; the exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High pure nickel inventories; resurgence of Sino - US tariff disturbances; overall downward shift of the nickel iron center with weakened bottom support; stainless steel shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity" with demand recovery falling short of expectations [6].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current volatility historical percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price range forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.91% - Current volatility historical percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel in the Shanghai market oscillated weakly during the day, and the non - ferrous metals market as a whole was weak - In the nickel ore market, the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies on September 18, with an estimated impact on nickel ore quotas of less than 3 million tons. As the quota approval for the next year approaches in October, concerns about the stability of ore supply have increased - In the new energy sector, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban, and the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026 have been announced, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries - Nickel iron prices have remained firm recently, with no downward driving force under cost support - In the stainless steel market, there has been repeated bargaining during the week. The spot market is in a contradiction, trying to support prices but facing weak demand. The wait - and - see sentiment is strong before the holiday [3] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, including elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - Stainless steel has seen continuous de - stocking for several weeks - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - High inventory of pure nickel - Sino - US tariff disturbances persist - Uncertainty about the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented - Weak spot trading in the stainless steel market [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - Closing prices of nickel futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 120,730 yuan/ton, down 1% - Trading volume decreased by 19.97% to 52,899 lots - Open interest decreased by 15.70% to 37,993 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 25,464 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 3.8% to - 550 yuan/ton [5] Stainless Steel Market - Closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing at 12,890 yuan/ton, unchanged - Trading volume increased by 0.29% to 139,017 lots - Open interest decreased by 4.71% to 123,891 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 89,008 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 7.04% to 660 yuan/ton [5] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons - LME nickel inventory: 230,454 tons, an increase of 1,554 tons - Stainless steel social inventory: 897.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory: 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Group 8: Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

Group 1: Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [2] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel disk oscillated weakly during the day. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals had no obvious changes [3] - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price was released, and the ore end was raised. The supply concern in the ore sector has not been eliminated [3] - In the new energy sector, there is still support. The continuous rise in cobalt prices has driven up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, and subsequent strength may continue [3] - The nickel - iron quotation is still firm, but the actual high - price transactions have declined. The stainless steel disk lost the 12,900 - yuan line during the day, and the actual transactions were limited [3] - At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, and the overall market was weak [3] Group 4: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt [5] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [5] - Stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks [5] - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - The pure nickel inventory is high [5] - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [5] - The uncertainty of the EU's stainless steel import tariff has increased [5] - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [5] - Stainless steel spot transactions are relatively weak [5] Group 5: Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main continuous is 121,500 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 560 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 23.23% to 62,653 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.40% to 50,421 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest value of stainless steel main continuous is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 15 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 33.50% to 116,925 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.79% to 131,185 lots [5] Group 6: Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 228,444 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous period [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous period [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons from the previous period [6] Group 7: Industry News - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1] - There are no new contradictions in the news and fundamentals of nickel, and it is digesting recent sentiment. The nickel ore benchmark price in July was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support. The transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, affected by weak downstream demand. For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels and sell call options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for options [2] - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan and sell put options, and also buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel is oscillating strongly. There are no new contradictions in news and fundamentals, mainly digesting recent sentiment [3] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support [3] - The intraday transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, mainly affected by weak downstream demand [3] - For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts [3] - The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] 3.利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The ban on cobalt mines in Congo continues [4] - Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons [4] - Policies have a positive impact on the overall new energy chain [4] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [4] 4.利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [5] - The contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain have deepened, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [5] - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered [6] 5. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 570 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume increased by 14.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.73% [6] - For stainless steel, the latest price of the main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume decreased by 20.00%, and the open interest decreased by 0.10% [7] 6. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period [8] - The LME nickel inventory is 203,628 tons, a decrease of 474 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 992.1 tons, a decrease of 8.5 tons [8] - The inventory of nickel pig iron is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [8]