南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/9/23 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 6.91% | 0.1% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, the social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline, mainly due to the continuous consumption of inventory by downstream rigid - demand procurement and limited arrival resources from leading steel mills such as Tsingshan. The demand side was generally weak, with the traditional peak season starting less than expected. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the willingness to stock up before the festival was generally low. In terms of cost, raw material prices remained high, with high - nickel iron prices remaining strong and chromite prices still on the rise, resulting in limited new supply of ferrochrome and strong cost support. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline, and there is room for marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. It is recommended to mainly place long orders on dips [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: As of September 19, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3%. This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on September 19 was 13,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was at a premium of about 25 yuan (+8) compared to the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was at a premium of about 25 yuan (- 42) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 278,734 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.16% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 50 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 115 (+5) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.5156 million tons. In August, the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,700 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in August was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. In September, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21% [30]. - It is expected that the monthly stainless steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In July, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.09% [33]. - In July, the net export volume of stainless steel was 343,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37% and a year - on - year increase of 20.57%. From January to July, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%. In August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [40]. - In August, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively. In August, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 19.3% [43]. - In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%. In August, the automobile sales volume was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [46]. 5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The futures warehouse receipt inventory this week was 89,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,217 tons [50]. - This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 168,100 tons, 617,900 tons, and 201,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.93% week - on - week. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 66,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.26%, and the unloading volume was 99,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.22% [53]. 6. Cost Side - In July, the nickel ore import volume was 5.0058 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.44% and a year - on - year increase of 45.19%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore was 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.0011 million wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong this week was 965 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 71 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromite quotation was 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In August, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 813,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.55% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 623 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 4.54% [66].

Group 1: Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [2] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedge ratio and sell call options (OTC/ETO) at a 50% hedge ratio, with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options (ETO/OTC), and buy out - of - the - money call options (ETO/OTC), with a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel disk oscillated weakly during the day. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals had no obvious changes [3] - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia's second - phase benchmark price was released, and the ore end was raised. The supply concern in the ore sector has not been eliminated [3] - In the new energy sector, there is still support. The continuous rise in cobalt prices has driven up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, and subsequent strength may continue [3] - The nickel - iron quotation is still firm, but the actual high - price transactions have declined. The stainless steel disk lost the 12,900 - yuan line during the day, and the actual transactions were limited [3] - At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, and the overall market was weak [3] Group 4: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt [5] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [5] - Stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks [5] - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - The pure nickel inventory is high [5] - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [5] - The uncertainty of the EU's stainless steel import tariff has increased [5] - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [5] - Stainless steel spot transactions are relatively weak [5] Group 5: Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main continuous is 121,500 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 560 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 23.23% to 62,653 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.40% to 50,421 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest value of stainless steel main continuous is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 15 yuan and a daily change rate of 0% [5] - The trading volume decreased by 33.50% to 116,925 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.79% to 131,185 lots [5] Group 6: Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 228,444 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from the previous period [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous period [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons from the previous period [6] Group 7: Industry News - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]