Company Progress - The company is advancing its A-share listing plan, with the board approving the issuance of A-shares in September 2025 and initiating IPO counseling in October 2025 [1] - In 2025, the company plans to start a 1.5 million tons mining and selection technology reform and electrolytic cell environmental improvement project, aiming to double production and output value over three years [1] Industry Policy and Environment - Indonesia has mandated the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, to reduce ore quotas by 70%, which has led to an increase in nickel futures prices on the London Metal Exchange [2] - If Indonesia's policy results in a nickel supply-demand gap, nickel prices may experience significant rebound potential, indirectly affecting the nickel-focused operations of the company [2] Financial Performance - The company's mid-2025 financial report indicates a net profit decline of approximately 50% year-on-year, primarily due to falling nickel prices and rising costs [2] - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility from January to February 2026, with a drop of 5.26% on January 5 and a rise of 7.66% on February 11, although there are no clear institutional rating recommendations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in the stock price of Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833.HK) on February 11, 2026, is primarily linked to expectations of tightening nickel market supply due to Indonesia's decision to cut mining quotas at the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, by 70% [1] Company Fundamentals - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, making its business highly correlated with nickel prices [1] - According to Zhongyou Securities, nickel is one of the few non-significantly rising metals in the non-ferrous metal sector since 2024, and the Indonesian policy could create a supply-demand gap, suggesting potential for nickel price rebound [1] Stock Recent Performance - As of the close on February 11, 2026, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's stock price was HKD 2.73, reflecting a daily increase of 10.08%, with a trading volume of approximately HKD 165 million, significantly higher than the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, the A-share non-ferrous metal sector also saw a general increase, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index rising by 2.70%, indicating the market's overall reaction to metal supply events [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is notably absent from the 2024 commodity bull market, with a price increase of only 3% since the beginning of 2024, significantly lagging behind other metals such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, cobalt, and lithium [1] Supply Analysis - Indonesia plays a crucial role in nickel supply, holding 55 million tons of nickel reserves, accounting for 42% of the global total. Brazil and Australia have reserves of 16 million tons and 24 million tons, representing 12% and 18% respectively [1] - Global nickel production is projected to reach 3.52 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. By 2025, production is expected to rise to 3.81 million tons, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth. Indonesia's nickel production is forecasted at 2.2 million tons in 2024, making up about 60% of global supply, and is expected to increase to 67% by 2025 [1] Smelting and Profitability - The analysis of Indonesian nickel smelting indicates that the wet process (HPAL) is currently profitable due to high cobalt prices, while the pyrometallurgical process (RKEF) is struggling with high nickel ore prices and poor downstream nickel-iron prices, leaving many manufacturers at breakeven [2] Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel remains the dominant driver of nickel demand, with a projected demand of around 2.3 million tons in 2025, accounting for 65%. The demand for ternary batteries is expected to grow at only 7%, with an annual demand of approximately 480,000 tons, representing 14% [3] - Global stainless steel production is expected to reach 62.62 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 7%, compared to 58.45 million tons in 2023, which saw a 5.78% increase. The demand for stainless steel is relatively stable, with low correlation to real estate and infrastructure, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector [3] - The demand for ternary battery materials has not met market expectations, primarily due to competition from lithium iron phosphate battery vehicles. Although new energy vehicle sales grew by 27% from January to November 2025, the growth rate for ternary material shipments was only 7%, indicating structural changes in the new energy vehicle market [3] Policy Impact - Recent Indonesian government policies have tightened regulations on the development of strategic minerals, particularly nickel, reversing previous expectations of a relaxed market. This could significantly impact the supply-demand balance [4] - Demand growth for stainless steel and ternary batteries is expected to maintain overall growth rates of 4.2% and 3.8% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. However, if Indonesia's 250 million ton quota policy is implemented, nickel supply could decrease by about 8% in 2026, potentially leading to a market shortfall of around 100,000 tons [4]