深度报告—镍 mingfTable_Title] 潜龙蓄锐，待势乘时 --成本与产能视角下的长周期展望 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 镍：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] ★镍铁&不锈钢：情同手足，患难与共 2006 至 2010 年，不锈钢快速放量主导镍库存大量消化，起初 NPI 生产技术难以支持显著放量，镍由此表现出较大向上弹性， 反造成不锈钢成本端高企。在原料紧缺和降本需求下，NPI 于 2010 年起踏入不锈钢主要原料队列（2011 年原料占比已达 50% 以上），越来越多的企业利用炼钢高炉冶炼红土镍矿生产 NPI， 供应周期转向快速放量，最终走成"供给增--价格跌"逻辑。 ★中间品：技术突破，原料结构洗牌 同镍铁&不锈钢类似，2020 年左右，新能源汽车的高速发展打开 了镍的第二增长曲线，起初"补能焦虑"使得三元电池大放异彩， 倒逼冶炼端二元供需失衡走出镍价单边上涨行情，纯镍酸溶硫酸 镍利润空间急剧收窄，红土镍矿湿法工艺应运而生，同时青山在 2021 年打通镍铁到高冰镍技术路径，为过剩镍铁找到新消费出 路。此外，电积工艺产线于 2023 年起大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by American electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers, particularly focusing on Ford's BlueOval SK joint venture with SK On, which is struggling to find buyers for surplus batteries produced at its Kentucky plant shortly after starting mass production. The article highlights the impact of policy uncertainty and cost sensitivity on the EV market in the U.S. [2][3][4] Group 1: Production and Sales Challenges - BlueOval SK's Kentucky plant began mass production of high-density power batteries for Ford's F-150 Lightning, but sales pressures have led to underutilization of production capacity, with only 7,913 units sold in Q1 2025, a slight decline from the previous year [4] - Similar challenges are observed with Tesla and its battery supplier Panasonic, which has delayed the full production of its DeSoto battery plant to March 2027 due to sales setbacks [5] - The U.S. EV market is showing weaker growth compared to Europe and China, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.68 million vehicles in June, down from over 17 million in March and April [6] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The cancellation of tax credits under the Trump administration has led to decreased consumer expectations, prompting companies to adjust their EV and battery investment projects in the U.S. [6] - The American Clean Energy Association reported that about 21 GWh of planned battery capacity for 2028 has been canceled due to tariff and market uncertainties [7] Group 3: Technological Shifts - American battery manufacturers have traditionally focused on nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) technology, which offers high energy density but comes with high material costs [8][9] - The article notes a shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are becoming more popular due to their cost-effectiveness, with companies like GM and Ford planning to transition some production lines to LFP [11][12] Group 4: Energy Storage Market - The demand for energy storage in the U.S. is expected to rise, with a projected 40 GWh of storage capacity needed in 2024, representing 20% of global demand [14] - Despite challenges, local production of storage batteries is increasing, with LG Energy and Tesla entering into a $4.3 billion agreement for LFP battery production in Michigan [15] Group 5: Future Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for American battery companies to quickly clarify effective technology investments and market strategies amid fluctuating policies and market conditions [18] - The potential for residential and commercial energy storage markets is highlighted, with record installations expected in 2024 [18]

为迎接"金九银十"的汽车销售旺季，各大车企铆足了劲在8月公示了多款新车。8月上旬，工信部 发布第398批《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品公告》，其中包含新款问界M7、小鹏X9、仰望 U9、极氪9X等热门车型。 本次公告共披露128款新车， BEV共67款，PHEV/HEV共61款 ，增混车型与纯电车型数量差距 缩小； LFP/锰基锂电池车型共104款，三元电池车型共24款 ，LFP电池车型仍占据主流地位。 具体来看， 宁德时代以50款新车配套领衔本批公告 。从电池类型来看，宁德时代配套了33款 LFP电池车型，17款三元电池车型；从动力类型来看，宁德时代配套了32款BEV车型，18款 PHEV/HEV。 从三元电池的配套来看，宁德时代得到极氪7X/9X、问界M7等中高端电动SUV，以及部分越野车 型的青睐。 弗迪紧跟其后拿下17款新车配套 ，16款比亚迪新车矩阵有海豹、海狮、海鸥、宋、夏、秦、方程 豹、仰望；1款外供车型。其中，仰望U9作为比亚迪电动超跑的高端车型，实现了LFP电池在性能 上的极致突破。 中创新航此次配套新车数量位列第三 ，共11款，配套车型包括埃安i60（纯电、增程版）、埃安V （纯电、增程版） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, showing pressure at the 15,000 level. The tight supply of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The price of nickel is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On August 21, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 230 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,940, down 105. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 21, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in major regions remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of August 21, LME nickel inventory was 209,598, an increase of 252; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588, an increase of 29. The total inventory increased by 281 [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. On August 21, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 118,640, a decrease of 1,129 [19][20]. **Cost** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 21. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 929 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,513 yuan [25]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation and anti - involution policies [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average. The supply shortage of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The cost line has slightly increased, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the shipping cost is firm. The nickel iron price has increased steadily, and the cost line has risen slightly. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 20, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,060 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel price was 15,045 yuan, down 15 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **不锈钢**: On August 20, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 20, the LME nickel inventory was 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 22,559 tons, a decrease of 282 tons [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 20, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt was 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons month - on - month [18][19]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **镍 ore**: On August 20, the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni0.9% grade was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. - **镍 iron**: On August 20, the price of high - nickel iron was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,420 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [22]. 3.4 Production Costs - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,510 yuan [24]. 3.5 Import Costs - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 121,436 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The expected consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘下探之后反弹，上方均线压力较大。上周挪威镍有一定补充，进口货源偏紧的情况有 一定缓解。产业链上，矿价稳定，镍铁价格稳中有升，矿端挺价且有一定上探迹象，成本线有小幅上升。 不锈钢库存继续下降，后期金九银十消费或继续提振。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同 比下降。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121650，基差1310，偏多 3、库存：LME库存210414，-1248，上交所仓单23051，+910，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基 ...

Core Insights - The electric vehicle battery market is experiencing strong growth, with significant increases in both domestic and export demand for power batteries, particularly lithium iron phosphate batteries [1][4][9] - The competitive landscape is dominated by CATL and BYD, with CATL's market share declining while BYD's share has increased significantly over the years [1][22] - The production and installation rates of power batteries are fluctuating, with a notable decrease in the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles [3][4] Battery Production and Installation - In July 2025, China's total power battery production reached 134 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with cumulative production from January to July at 831 GWh, up 43% [2] - The installation rate of power batteries has been decreasing, with 2025's installation rate projected to drop to 43%, down from 70% in 2021 [3][4] Market Dynamics - The demand for electric vehicle batteries remains robust, with pure electric passenger vehicles expected to see a 39% increase in battery demand in 2025, while plug-in hybrid vehicles are projected to grow by 19% [9][10] - The market for pure electric trucks is also experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase of 153% in battery demand [9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics of the battery market are characterized by a strong presence of leading companies like CATL and BYD, with CATL's market share at 42% in 2025, while BYD's share has risen from 15% in 2020 to 26.9% in 2023 [22] - Other companies like EVE Energy and A123 Systems are also gaining traction, but the market remains largely dominated by the top two players [22] Energy Density Trends - The main energy density range for current electric vehicle batteries is between 125 to 160 Wh/kg, with a notable increase in the share of batteries in the 140 to 160 Wh/kg range [21] - The share of batteries with energy density above 160 Wh/kg has decreased significantly, indicating a shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries [21] Future Outlook - The battery market is expected to continue evolving, with potential shifts in production strategies as automakers increasingly invest in battery manufacturing [19][22] - The overall structure of battery demand is changing, with a growing emphasis on high-performance batteries for electric vehicles [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual dynamics of the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting the slowdown in domestic growth alongside strong export expansion, which is reshaping the competitive landscape and growth pathways for the battery industry [3][5]. Domestic Market Trends - In July, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached approximately 1.15 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 22%, but a month-on-month decline of 3%. Retail sales were about 990,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 12% but a significant month-on-month drop of 11% [5][6]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market has remained stagnant between 50% and 54% for nearly a year, failing to surpass the 55% mark [5]. - The retail market for pure electric vehicles grew by about 25% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales saw a slight decline of 0.2%, and range-extended models dropped significantly by 11% [5][6]. - The market share of domestic brands in new energy vehicles stabilized at 70%, with a penetration rate of 75%, while luxury brands had a penetration rate of 30% and mainstream joint ventures only 7% [5][6]. Price Competition and Cost Pressures - The average price reduction for new energy vehicles in July was approximately 17,000 yuan, representing an 11.1% decrease, indicating ongoing price wars that are transferring cost pressures to battery manufacturers [6][7]. - The average price of plug-in hybrid models dropped by about 33,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 14%, which is higher than that of pure electric vehicles [6][7]. Battery Supply Chain Dynamics - In July, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81% of the domestic battery installations, with a year-on-year growth of 49%, while the installation of ternary batteries decreased by 4% [7]. - The market concentration of domestic power battery manufacturers continued to decline, with the top two companies' market share dropping by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Export Growth and Global Market Trends - In July, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120%, accounting for 45% of total passenger vehicle exports [9][10]. - Exports of pure electric vehicles constituted 65% of new energy exports, with A00 and A0 class small pure electric vehicles' share rising from 26% to 43% [9][10]. - BYD's exports reached 80,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 160%, particularly strong in the European market, where sales grew by 470% [10][11]. - The overall export volume of domestic power batteries increased by approximately 48%, surpassing domestic sales for the first time [10]. High-End Market Opportunities - Despite price competition in the low-end market, the high-end market (vehicles priced above 250,000 yuan) is emerging as a new battleground, with several brands launching new models in this segment [11][12]. - The global production of ternary materials reached a historical high in July, indicating a strong demand for high-performance batteries [11][12]. Future Outlook - The transition of automotive consumption subsidies from direct grants to loan interest subsidies signals a shift in policy direction, with a focus on service consumption areas such as battery testing and maintenance [12]. - As some hybrid models begin to retract in the domestic market, automakers must find ways to expand their advantages over traditional fuel vehicles rather than competing within the pure electric segment [12].

Domestic News - In July, China's power battery installation volume reached 55.9 GWh, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.0% but a year-on-year increase of 34.3%. The total battery production for July was 133.8 GWh, up 3.6% month-on-month and 44.3% year-on-year [3] - A new national standard for the transportation of lithium batteries will be implemented on February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the safety and efficiency of lithium battery logistics, which is crucial for the high-quality development of the industry [4] - GAC Aion plans to invest up to 30% in Huawang Automobile, which aims to create a new high-end automotive brand targeting the 300,000 RMB market [5] - Chery's Omoda and Jaecoo brands are entering the Iraqi market through a distribution agreement with Jameel Motors, with initial models including both fuel and plug-in hybrid vehicles [6] - Lantu's flagship SUV will feature Huawei's ADS Ultra four-laser radar intelligent driving solution, enhancing user experience through advanced technology [7] - Huawei's Yu Chengdong announced the S800 model, which integrates six-domain fusion technology for improved comfort and safety [8] - Tesla's global vice president, Tao Lin, emphasized the company's commitment to battery recycling, with 90% of waste materials being reused in new battery production [9] - Zebra Intelligent's associated company increased its registered capital to approximately 3.2 billion RMB, marking a 13% increase [10] International News - In July, U.S. electric vehicle sales surged to over 130,000 units, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by lower prices and incentives from automakers [12][13] - Japan's new car sales fell by 3.6% year-on-year in July, with total sales for the first seven months up by 8% compared to the previous year [14] - Italy approved a new subsidy plan worth approximately 698 million USD to boost electric vehicle sales, offering up to 10,000 EUR in subsidies for individual buyers [15] - Ford announced a plan to invest 5 billion USD in electric vehicles, focusing on producing affordable models starting in 2027 [16] Commercial Vehicles - Foton's Tuyano X5 HEV was officially launched, featuring a hybrid system with a starting price of 126,800 RMB [19] - BYD's electric heavy truck has entered the supply chain of Conch Cement, showcasing a model that combines long-range capabilities with fast charging [20] - FAW Jiefang launched its new high-power Eagle Road product, targeting the natural gas heavy truck market [21] - Jiangling Motors partnered with CATL to advance the battery swap ecosystem for logistics vehicles [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continued to show rapid year-on-year growth, with production and sales reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 48.7% in July, up 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, while the cumulative penetration rate for January to July was 45% [4]. - The total battery production in July was 133.8 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.3%, while battery sales were 127.2 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [4]. - The demand for power batteries is expected to recover as the traditional peak season for NEVs approaches, driven by the continuous development of renewable energy and the increasing demand for energy storage [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In July 2025, NEV sales reached 1.262 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, while the cumulative sales from January to July were 8.232 million units, up 39.2% year-on-year [4]. - Pure electric vehicle sales in July were 811,000 units, up 47.1% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales were 451,000 units, up 2.8% year-on-year [4]. Battery Production and Sales - In July, the total battery production was 133.8 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.3% [4]. - Power battery sales accounted for 91.1 GWh, representing 71.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 45.8% [4]. Export and Market Dynamics - In July, the total battery exports were 23.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, with power battery exports at 14.8 GWh, up 48.4% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in lithium carbonate due to supply expectations and the ongoing development of solid-state battery technology [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that have technological and production advantages, particularly in solid-state electrolytes and new electrode materials [4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others that are actively involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [4].