近期，刚果（金）暂停所有手工开采的钴矿物的加工和销售活动的消息，给2025年上涨的钴价又添了一把火。 Wind数据显示，2025年12月31日，中国钴平均价达49万元/吨，较前一个交易日进一步上涨，并创下2022年下半年以来的新高。2025年以来，钴价涨幅已 经达到190%。 SMM钴高级分析师王照宇对时代财经表示，自2025年2月刚果（金）实施钴出口禁令以来，国内钴原料供应格局发生根本性逆转，由结构性过剩转为持续 性紧缺。其进一步分析指出，本轮涨价的根源在于供给侧的政策约束。刚果金2026~2027年每年9.66万吨出口配额已确定，相较于2024年约22万吨的产 量，降幅超过50%。 "这从根本上决定了未来两年全球钴市场将处于结构性短缺状态，但是随着回收比例的提升，这种短缺的状态也将不断得到缓解。"王照宇分析道。 此外，碳酸锂及硫酸价格在2025年以来也有较大涨幅，作为消费类电池正极材料的钴酸锂及用于锂电池三元前驱体材料生产的硫酸钴因而在成本驱动下强 势上涨，全年涨幅分别超150%、248%。 图源：钴、钴酸锂、硫酸钴价格走势 有电池厂商销售人员就对时代财经表示，2025年以来其所在公司的钴酸锂电池已经涨价 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 3 | | | 第三部分 | 过剩向低成本交割品集中，谨防印尼政策风险 | 4 | | | 一、供应端增长集中在湿法产线，火法几乎停滞 | 5 | | | 二、印尼镍矿配额政策风险仍需关注 10 | | | 第四部分 | 需求难寻驱动，或有潜在亮点 12 | | | | 一、经济增长放缓，降息利好有色板块 13 | | | | 二、不锈钢供需紧平衡，成本有望抬升 14 | | | | 三、三元电池占比企稳，新质生产力提供潜在增长点 | 16 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡及交易策略 21 | | | | 免责声明 | 22 | 有色板块研发报告 1.印尼镍矿配额落在 2.5 亿吨以内，或其他实质性影响镍矿供需的政策。 2.俄罗斯延续被制裁状态，库存继续隐性化。（若海外取消对俄制裁， 库存可能显性化，施压镍价） 交易逻辑：由于存在阶段性潜在上行风险，上半年若宏观能与产业共振， 配合资金进场，2025 年末的上涨或将延续。但若镍矿配额增加，或库存显 性化，下半年可考虑冲高空配的机会。 镍年报 2025 年 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二部分 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 过剩向低成本交割品集中，谨防印尼政策风险 | 4 | | 一、供应端增长集中在湿法产线，火法几乎停滞 | | 5 | | 二、印尼镍矿配额政策风险仍需关注 | 10 | | | 第四部分 需求难寻驱动，或有潜在亮点 | 12 | | | 一、经济增长放缓，降息利好有色板块 | 13 | | | 二、不锈钢供需紧平衡，成本有望抬升 | 14 | | | 三、三元电池占比企稳，新质生产力提供潜在增长点 | | 16 | | 第五部分 供需平衡及交易策略 | 21 | | | 免责声明 | | 22 | 有色板块研发报告 镍年报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 镍过剩犹存 印尼政策风险加大 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 宏观方面：货币层面较为宽松，利好有色品种金融属性发挥。但经济大 环境仍有较多隐忧，期待"十五五"开年政策工具。 产业方面：2026 年若无印尼镍矿配额扰动，预计过剩略有收窄至 24.5 万吨，但精炼镍过剩再增加 3 万吨，进一步加剧库存压力。过剩向低成本交 ...

镍：供给高度集中的底部高赔率品种 20251228 镍需求主要由不锈钢和三元电池驱动，不锈钢占比 70%，三元电池占比 13%。不锈钢需求与宏观经济高度相关，在全球制造业 PMI 上行时，不 锈钢增速同比可高达 10%。 镍具有权益弹性大于商品弹性的特点，在印尼托底政策、冶炼审批限制 及乐观宏观预期下，未来一年内行情值得期待，建议关注整个权益板块 布局机会，如华友钴业，镍价每上涨 1,000 美元，公司利润弹性可达 12 亿以上。 2025 年 12 月，印尼已审批的总量配额达到 3.79 亿吨，而实际需求量仅为 2.8-2.9 亿吨。因此，从 2025 年 10 月起，过去所审批的配额作废，并要求企 业重新申请新一年的配额，将 RKB 有效期恢复为一年一审。这一变化使得未来 每年的 RKB 审批量级更灵活调节。如果 2026 年的总配额严格控制在 2.5 亿吨， 将显著影响供给，并可能导致行业反转。 印尼政府对镍矿供应政策变化对市场价格有何影响？ 随着印尼政府对 RKB 政策调整及其他相关措施实施，自 2023 年底至 2024 年 期间（即今年），由于政策收紧和大选因素导致审批偏紧，使得火法矿价格从 30 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 政策扰动 大幅反弹 20251228 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 上周沪镍低位大幅震荡反弹。 u 消息：人民币汇率破"7"在望。本周以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率稳步走高，周三离岸人民币对美元升穿7.01，一度触及7.0013， 距离破"7"关口只步之遥。国家能源局公布数据显示，11月份全社会用电量8356亿千瓦时，同比增长6.2%。其中，充换电服务业用电量同 比增长60.2%。印度尼西亚镍矿企业协会(APNI)透露 ...

Group 1: Cloud Infrastructure and AI Industry - Global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to reach $102.6 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year growth, with market momentum remaining stable and exceeding 20% growth for the fifth consecutive quarter [3] - NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinet shipments are expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the AI sector [3] - Semiconductor foundry SMIC has begun raising prices by approximately 10% due to increased demand from AI and electric vehicles, suggesting a sustained high demand cycle in the semiconductor industry [3] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing and Electric Vehicles - Cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles reached 16.091 million units from January to October 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase, driving global power battery installation to approximately 867.4 GWh, up 34% year-on-year [6] - China accounted for 63.3% of global power battery installations, with the top ten companies holding six positions, indicating a strong competitive landscape [6] - The global battery chemistry landscape is characterized by a dual-track system dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries, while high-end applications are maintained by ternary batteries [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector and Nike Performance - Nike's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $12.43 billion, a 0.6% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by the North American market and running categories [8] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was $790 million, a 31.9% year-on-year decline, but still surpassed Bloomberg's consensus estimate [8] - The overall apparel wholesale sales in the U.S. turned positive in September, indicating a healthy inventory situation and providing a foundation for future replenishment and brand recovery [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 进入12月后，镍价先是窄幅震荡后快速下探再迅速拉升，前期产业链过剩压力依然显著，沪镍指数最低 跌破11.2万元/吨，LME镍则跌至14235美元/吨，后续因印尼可能下调明年镍矿产量目标，镍价快速收复 前期跌幅。 印尼镍矿政策存扰动 印尼镍产量在全球占比六至七成，其产业发展政策直接影响全球镍元素供应。近期，随着镍价不断探 底，市场出现一些变化：据印尼镍矿商协会（APNI），政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提 出镍矿石产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降，不过该产量目标仍属于政府 层面的规划，最终实施方式尚不明确，能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）就未来镍矿配额问题还在商议中； 其二，印尼将于2026年1月或2月修订镍价参考公式，重点是将镍的伴生矿产尤其是钴视为独立商品征收 特许权使用费，这一变动将提高镍矿成本。 据Mysteel，进入12月后，国内进口镍矿价格弱势持稳，上周菲律宾Eramen矿山1.4%镍矿成交落地 FOB40，装船出货效率尚可；下游企业多有年前备货需求，对镍矿压价心态或有放缓；海运费持稳， ...

Core Insights - The performance of power batteries in November was weak, with both exports and domestic sales underwhelming, leading to a significant drop in expected growth for the year-end new energy vehicle installations [1] - The demand for batteries is heavily reliant on high subsidies for heavy-duty electric trucks, with expectations of a sharp decline in pure electric heavy truck installations early next year [1] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 176 GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 53%, with a cumulative production of 1469 GWh from January to November, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth [3][4] Battery Production and Installation - In November 2025, the installation rate of power batteries reached 53%, with ternary batteries at 50% and lithium iron phosphate batteries at 54%, indicating a peak in battery installation activity for the year [4][5] - The cumulative production of power batteries in 2025 is projected to be 672 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42% [9][10] - The installation of new energy vehicles in November 2025 was 1.72 million units, a 19% increase year-on-year, with pure electric passenger vehicles showing a 30% increase [13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of battery manufacturers is dominated by CATL and BYD, which together hold a market share of approximately 65% as of 2025, while other companies have over 30% market space available [2][19] - The energy density of battery models with over 160 Wh/kg has decreased to 10% in Q4 2025, down from 13% in 2024, primarily due to the substitution of ternary batteries by lithium iron phosphate batteries [19] - The demand for batteries in the passenger vehicle segment remains strong, with pure electric passenger vehicle battery demand expected to grow by 34% in 2025, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 19% [9][10] Future Outlook - The battery production is expected to remain high in 2025, with a low starting point for installations, indicating a potential mismatch between production and demand [5] - The trend of electric vehicle manufacturers increasingly controlling battery production and supply chains is anticipated to strengthen, reflecting a shift towards a "vehicle-centric" model in the industry [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and challenges in the solid-state battery industry, emphasizing the maturity of technology and the slow pace of vehicle integration due to economic factors and production challenges [4][6][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Lithium Golden Ding Award Ceremony were held on December 18, 2025, in Shenzhen, with over 800 attendees discussing key topics in lithium batteries, materials, and equipment [1]. - The event included a forum on user-side energy storage and battery technology, highlighting the importance of technological breakthroughs and safety challenges in the industry [1]. Group 2: Solid-State Battery Insights - The chief scientist of sodium batteries presented a report on the maturity of solid-state battery technology and its integration speed, indicating that the technology is ready for implementation [2]. - Solid-state batteries have undergone extensive research and development, with major manufacturers like Dongfeng and Changan already testing vehicles equipped with this technology [5]. - The article notes that while solid-state battery technology is mature, the speed of vehicle integration is influenced by economic considerations and the existing infrastructure for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries [6][7]. Group 3: Technical and Economic Challenges - The cost of solid-state batteries remains high due to the lack of large-scale production, which is necessary to drive down prices [7]. - The article highlights that achieving zero defects in production is crucial for solid-state batteries, but current production lines are still focused on achieving this for existing battery types [7]. - The integration of solid-state batteries into the market is expected to accelerate by 2030, but for now, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries will continue to dominate due to their established safety and cost advantages [6][8].

Industry Overview - In November, domestic power and other battery production reached 176.3 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.3%. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 36.4 GWh and 139.6 GWh, accounting for 20.7% and 79.2% respectively [1] - The domestic power battery installation volume in November was 93.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2%. The installation volume for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18.2 GWh and 75.3 GWh, making up 19.4% and 80.5% respectively [2] Market Leaders - The top three domestic power battery installations in November were: CATL with 40.87 GWh (43.7% market share), BYD with 19.04 GWh (20.4% market share), and Zhongxin Innovation with 5.96 GWh (6.4% market share) [3] - From January to November, the cumulative domestic power and other battery production reached 1468.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.1%. The cumulative production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 306.0 GWh and 1160.9 GWh, accounting for 20.8% and 79.0% respectively [3] Cumulative Data - The cumulative domestic power battery installation volume from January to November was 671.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.0%. The cumulative installation volume for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries was 107.7 GWh and 470.2 GWh, representing 18.8% and 81.2% respectively [4] - The top three cumulative domestic power battery installations from January to November were: CATL with 287.68 GWh (42.8% market share), BYD with 148.15 GWh (22.1% market share), and Zhongxin Innovation with 46.62 GWh (6.9% market share) [5] Global Overview - In October, the global power battery installation volume was 121.8 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.9% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [6] - The top three global power battery installations in October were: CATL with 58.0 GWh (47.6% market share), BYD with 12.9 GWh (10.6% market share), and Guoxuan High-Tech with 9.0 GWh (7.4% market share) [7] - From January to October, the cumulative global power battery installation volume reached 933.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [8] - The top three cumulative global power battery installations from January to October were: CATL with 355.2 GWh (38.1% market share), BYD with 157.9 GWh (16.9% market share), and LG with 86.5 GWh (9.3% market share) [9]