主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） 近日，工信部发布第400批《道路机动车辆生产企业及产品公告》。本次共有111款新车公示，三元电池车型含16款，LFP电池车型共95款，纯电车 型64款，插混/增程共47款，其中包括4款甲烷插混车型。 本批公告中，三元与铁锂新车申报数量比例进一步拉大，纯电与混动车型数量则继续保持微小的差距。 混动车型中，本批公告出现了4款吉利甲烷插混车型：2款银河星舰7、2款银河星耀6，配套的电池企业有宁德时代、中创新航、瑞浦兰钧。 与此同时， 小鹏也带来了P7+、G6两款增程车型，电池均来自亿纬锂能 。而在上一批公告中，小鹏便已带来增程版G7，同样由亿纬锂能供应。截止 目前，小鹏增程车型已涵盖轿车、SUV和MPV，欲打造全系增程车型。 数量方面，宁德时代依旧是配套新车最多的电池企业，共配套54款， ...

倒计时45天 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会 暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼 主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） "我们现阶段不碰动力与储能。" 在高工锂电2025年秋季巡回走访过程中，多家自成立起便 聚焦固态电池商业化应用、以固态电池为核心业务 的初创企业，均向高工锂电传递了这 一明确信号。 这一风向转变，与前几年固态电池企业在PPT中畅谈要在动力、储能两大主流市场实现部分替代的雄心壮志形成鲜明反差。 但深入探究便会发现，这种"退一步"的选择，并非退缩，反而映射出新技术落地的真实路径与理性着陆点，摆脱了纸上谈兵的虚幻，推动固态电池 产业向更务实的方向发展。 大应用市场 短期难以突破的"硬骨头" 从市场规模来看，动力与储能无疑是锂电池行业的两大核心应用场景，占据行业绝大部分市场份额。 GGII数据显示，2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has lifted its cobalt export ban and shifted to a quota system, allowing for significant exports in the coming years, which is expected to impact the global cobalt supply chain and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The DRC will allow over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports in 2023, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, distributed based on companies' historical export volumes [1]. - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market saw significant increases, indicating a positive market reaction [1]. - The shift from a complete export ban to a quota system suggests a more refined approach to managing cobalt resources in the DRC [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cobalt market is currently facing a raw material shortage, with high concentration in spot inventories, leading to price increases primarily driven by traders and companies holding physical stocks [2]. - The battery sector, which consumes over 70% of cobalt, is experiencing pressure due to inventory levels, causing battery manufacturers to reduce procurement from upstream suppliers [2]. - The DRC's export policy change is expected to lead to a supply shortage in the global cobalt market from 2025 to 2027, with projected shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [8]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Reactions - Domestic cobalt prices in China have been reported between 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the market [3]. - The overall cobalt market is experiencing reduced supply and rising prices, with international demand also increasing, contributing to a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [3]. - Companies in the cobalt sector are currently assessing the new quota system and its implications for their operations, with some indicating that they have sufficient inventory to manage potential supply disruptions [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **多空因素** - **利多因素**: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] **镍仓单、库存** - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] **镍矿、镍铁价格** | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] **不锈钢生产成本** | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].

Group 1 - The solid-state battery industry has gained attention since September, with significant growth in battery and new energy-related ETFs, with some rising over 20% [1] - In August, China's total battery production reached 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [1] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 77.8% of total production, with a year-on-year growth of 42.2% [1] Group 2 - Battery sales in August reached 134.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.6% [2] - The export of batteries increased by 23.9% year-on-year, totaling 22.6 GWh in August [2] - The installation of power batteries in August was 62.5 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 32% [2] Group 3 - The battery sector is experiencing rapid growth in demand, indicating it remains an incremental market [3] - Capital expenditure across the supply chain has slowed down since 2024, leading to improved supply-demand conditions and potential profitability recovery for companies [3] - Solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a promising development direction, with recommendations to focus on companies involved in solid-state battery equipment and materials [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The newly released "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a national new energy storage installed capacity of over 180GW by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan. Lithium battery storage remains the primary technology route [43] - The lithium battery index has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 46.60%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 32.29 percentage points [10] - The overall demand for lithium batteries is rapidly increasing, with a notable recovery in net profits across the lithium battery supply chain, which grew by 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking a turning point after two years of decline [43] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 18, 2025, the lithium battery index rose by 17.97% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.92 percentage points [10] - The lithium battery index has increased by 19.54% this month and 46.60% year-to-date [10] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - As of September 18, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,100 yuan/ton, down 2.14% over the past two weeks. The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 71,600 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [23] - The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable at 34,300 yuan/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen price declines of 0.86%, 1.24%, and 0.34%, respectively [25] - The price of electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.88% to 57,000 yuan/ton [29] Industry News - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September will reach approximately 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 58.1%, setting a new historical high [38] - Global battery production in August 2025 reached 198.42 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.31% [38] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with companies like Panasonic and SK On making significant advancements in solid-state battery technology [41][39] Company Announcements - CATL reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, with a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, up 33.33% [44] - Enjie Co., Ltd. is focusing on the development of solid-state battery materials and has established a production line for high-purity lithium sulfide [44] - Tianwei Technology has successfully developed a solid-state electrolyte with high ionic conductivity and is now capable of large-scale supply [42]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the battery industry is characterized by strong positions of CATL and BYD, with CATL's share of lithium iron phosphate batteries surpassing BYD's since 2024 [1] - The industry is experiencing rapid changes in competition, with companies like EVE Energy and Zhongxin Innovation showing strong performance, while others like Xinwangda and Ruipu Lanjun are also improving significantly [1] - The transition of BYD to fully focus on lithium iron phosphate batteries has enhanced the competitive advantage of CATL, LG, and other leading companies in ternary batteries [1] Battery Production and Demand - In August 2025, the total production of power and other batteries reached 139.6 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 45% [4] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 was 970.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 43% [4] - The proportion of batteries installed in vehicles is decreasing, with the installation rate for power batteries dropping from 70% in 2021 to 50% in 2024, and further down to 43% in 2025 [2][3] Market Trends - The demand for batteries in the energy storage sector is growing rapidly due to the global energy crisis exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a notable decline in the proportion of batteries installed in vehicles [3] - The growth rate of power battery installations has been lower than that of vehicle sales in 2021 and 2022, but is expected to stabilize in 2025 with a production surplus [3] - The demand for pure electric passenger vehicles is projected to grow by 36.4% in 2025, while plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles are expected to see a growth of 16.9% [6] Competitive Landscape - The battery market remains stable with no significant changes in the competitive landscape, as larger companies continue to expand their market share while smaller firms seek growth through technological advancements [13] - The number of battery companies supplying the market reached a low of 33 in August 2025, indicating a concentration of production capabilities among fewer players [12] - The market share of CATL decreased to 42% in Q3 2025, while BYD's share fluctuated from 15% in 2020 to 26.9% in 2023, and then down to 21.4% in Q3 2025 [18]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The nickel price showed a strong trend last week, but spot trading remained sluggish. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. The cost line is firm, and inventory continued to decline. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was at 121,980 yuan, up 1,360 yuan from the previous day; the London nickel price was 15,380, up 160; the stainless steel main contract was 12,950 yuan, up 80 yuan [11]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan, up 1,400 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,000 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 122,050 yuan, up 1,350 yuan; nickel beans were 124,200 yuan, up 1,350 yuan. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 225,084 tons, an increase of 1,932 tons [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 96,949 tons, a decrease of 605 tons [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On September 12, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars/wet ton, and Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars/wet ton, both remaining unchanged. High - nickel ferronickel was 953.5 yuan/nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,470 yuan/ton, also unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,157 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,563 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,882 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,836 yuan/ton [27]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and support from the cost line of 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [6].

Macro Economic Group - In August, M2 growth was 8.8% year-on-year, the highest since December 2023, while M1 growth was 6.0%, the highest since January 2023, indicating a significant acceleration in the speed of money circulation [5][6] - The total social financing (TSF) in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, lower than the previous year's figure by 463 billion yuan, with a notable decrease in government bonds and loans [5] - Bank credit increased by 590 billion yuan in August, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in both household and corporate loans [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Recent US sanctions on Chinese companies, including Shanghai Fudan, may lead to short-term stock sell-offs, but China's countermeasures could benefit domestic analog chip manufacturers [9] - The global analog chip market is recovering, with price increases from major manufacturers, suggesting improved profitability for domestic firms if anti-dumping investigations succeed [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In August, China's battery sales reached 134.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for the majority of the growth [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims for new energy storage capacity to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving significant investment in the sector [12] - The automotive industry is projected to see a 3% increase in total sales in 2025, with a 20% growth in new energy vehicle sales, indicating a shift towards smart and electric vehicles [12] Consumer Group - Jiangnan Buyi reported a total revenue of 5.548 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, a 4.6% increase, driven by online sales and store expansion [14] - The company's membership system plays a crucial role, with over 80% of retail revenue coming from members, highlighting the importance of customer loyalty [14] Bond Research Group - The bond market experienced an overall rise in interest rates, influenced by concerns over high redemption fees for bond funds and a weak inflation outlook [16]