点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2939 字，阅读全文约需 10 分钟 本文详细资讯可在中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会官网下载：www.cpcaauto.com 1.本周车市概述 乘用车： 11月1-23日，全国乘用车市场零售138.4万辆，同比去年11月同期下降11%，较上月同期下降 2%，今年以来累计零售2,064万辆，同比增长6%；11月1-23日，全国乘用车厂商批发169万辆，同比去年11月 同期下降8%，较上月同期增长8%，今年以来累计批发2,546.4万辆，同比增长11%。 新能源： 11月1-23日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售84.9万辆，同比去年11月同期增长3%，较上月同期增 长8%，今年以来累计零售1,099.8万辆，同比去年11月同期增长20%；11月1-23日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 99.5万辆，同比去年11月同期增长4%，较上月同期增长13%，今年以来累计批发1,305.1万辆，同比增长27%。 渗透率： 2025年11月1-23日，全国乘用车市场新能源零售渗透率61.3%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透 率58.8%。11月第1-3周，全国纯燃料轻型车生产83. ...

本文来源：鑫椤锂电 10 月，新能源汽车产销分别完成 177.2 万辆 和 171.5 万辆 ，同比分别增长 21.1% 和 20% ，新能源 汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的 51.6%。 1-10 月，新能源汽车产销分别完成 1301.5 万辆 和 1294.3 万辆 ，同比分别增长 33.1% 和 32.7% ，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的 46.7% 10 月，新能源汽车国内销量 145.9 万辆 ，环比增长 5.6% ，同比增长 12.1% 。其中，新能源乘用车国 内销量 137.7 万辆，环比增长 6% ，同比增长 10.3%； 新能源商用车国内销量 8.2 万辆，环比下降 0.5% ，同比增长 52.4%。 1-10 月，新能源汽车国内销量 1092.9 万辆 ，同比增长 25.7% 。其中， 新能源乘用车国内销量 1028 万辆，同比增长 24%； 新能源商用车国内销量 64.9 万辆，同比增长 60.2% 。 -广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 数据来源：中汽协，鑫椤资讯整理 动力电池 | 10 月国内动力电池装车量 ...

11月中旬，在上海举办的以"全球供应链区域化新时代"为主题的第十届动力电池应用国际峰会（CBIS 2025），吸引了亿纬锂能（300014）、赣锋锂业（002460）、蜂巢能源、瑞浦兰钧等众多行业头部企业 参会。业内专家围绕新能源电池产业发展趋势、下一代电池技术突破路径等话题展开深度交流。 创新成行业发展核心动力 中国化学（601117）与物理电源行业协会秘书长王泽深在开幕式上表示，当前新能源电池技术正处于关 键探索阶段：液态电池基础持续巩固，固态电池研发不断突破，创新已成为破解资源约束、安全挑战与 成本压力的核心动力。 多位与会专家指出，当前动力电池行业仍面临性能、成本、安全、绿色等多方挑战。亿纬锂能董事长刘 金成认为，一是要解决全生命周期成本控制问题。当前动力电池在电动汽车总成本中占比较高，持续降 本是行业健康发展的关键；二是优化动力电池在极寒环境下的性能表现。从长远来看，动力电池还应深 度融入分布式能源体系，让电动车不仅是移动工具，更要成为一个"移动银行"，通过车网互动技术为全 球绿色能源转型提供新动能。 在会议现场，《2025年中国固态电池产业发展白皮书》（下文简称《白皮书》）发布。《白皮书》显 示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for lithium batteries is expected to sustain the price increase of PVDF, with projected demand for lithium-grade PVDF in China reaching approximately 78,700 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 65.4% [1][2]. Industry Status - As of November 20, the mainstream market price of PVDF has risen from 49,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of November to 52,000 CNY/ton [1]. - The average market prices for PVDF used in lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries, and membrane coating are reported at 60,000 CNY/ton, 119,500 CNY/ton, and 182,000 CNY/ton respectively, showing increases from mid-year lows [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The downstream applications of PVDF primarily include lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coatings, and water films. In the first ten months of 2025, the total installed capacity for lithium iron phosphate batteries in China is 1,240 GWh, and for ternary batteries, it is 265 GWh [2]. - Assuming production remains stable in November and December, the estimated demand for lithium-grade PVDF could reach 78,700 tons in 2025, with a potential increase to 110,000 tons in 2026 if the growth rate in battery production continues [2]. Production Capacity Insights - The current effective production capacity of the PVDF industry is approximately 180,000 tons, with nominal new capacity reaching 157,000 tons. However, the actual new capacity may be lower than expected due to high barriers to entry in the supply chain [3]. - The supply chain for lithium-grade PVDF is concentrated among a few key players, including companies like Dongyue Group, Haohua Technology, and Juhua Co., Ltd. The actual supply increase may be significantly lower than anticipated due to the concentration of new effective capacity among existing suppliers [3].

智通财经APP获悉，11月21日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发布10月新能源车锂电池市场分析。其中指出，10月动力电池走势较强，出口和内销的表现均很 好。纯电动车目前主力电池能量密度区间在125到160之间，近期高能量密度的稍有改善。10月，我国动力和其它电池合计产量为171GWh，同比增长 49%。1-10月，我国动力和其它电池累计产量为1293GWh，累计同比增长45%。 电池企业的竞争格局形成宁德时代和比亚迪两者相对较强的特征。宁德时代的磷酸铁锂电池的占比份额从2024年已经反超比亚迪，插混低迷。行业竞争变 化快。亿纬锂能和中创新航表现较强。欣旺达、瑞浦兰钧、蜂巢能源、极电新能源的提升明显。由于比亚迪全面转型磷酸铁锂电池，因此宁德时代、中创 新航、LG、蜂巢等前四家的三元电池优势更加明显，近期巨湾技研、亿纬锂能表现较好。 动力电池的装车占比 | 单位:GWh | 动力电池产量 | | 三元电池产量 | | 磷酸铁锂电池 | 动力电池产量 | | | 三元电池产量 | 磷酸铁锂电池 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term, with an expected oversupply pattern. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, testing the support strength of the previous low [2]. - **不锈钢**: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, and the price is expected to be under pressure with a weak oscillation at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Price Changes** - **Nickel Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 18, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 114,840 yuan, down 1,910 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,645, down 30. SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 116,950 yuan, down 1,750 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 18, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,365 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The average price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in different regions decreased to varying degrees [12]. **Inventory Conditions** - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 18, LME nickel inventory was 257,832, an increase of 138; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 35,424, a decrease of 402. The total inventory was 293,256, a decrease of 264 [15]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of November 14, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.071 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. As of November 18, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 68,795, a decrease of 494 [18][19]. **Cost Factors** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On November 18, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 899.5 yuan/nickel point, down 3 yuan [22]. - **Stainless Steel Production Costs**: The traditional production cost was 12,578 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,870 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,117 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price was 117,364 yuan/ton [27].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续承压，价格大幅回落。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，前期受台风影响部分港口出货 受到影响，近期慢慢恢复，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落，成 本线重心再降。不锈钢库存回升，供应表现过剩。原生镍有新的产能投产，同时有一部分减产，短期产 量或有下降，但中长线依然供应强劲，库存持续垒加。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回 升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货118700，基差1950，偏多 3、库存：LME库存257694，+5604，上交所仓单35826，+799，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The nickel price fluctuated weakly last week and was under downward pressure. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and the inventory is continuously increasing. The conclusion is that the nickel contract 2512 will fluctuate weakly, be under downward pressure, and test the previous low [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price declined, the cost line continued to move down, and the inventory increased significantly. The stainless - steel contract 2601 will fluctuate weakly, be under pressure, and test the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍** - **Fundamentals**: Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel iron prices continue to fall. Stainless - steel inventory is rising, and the supply is excessive. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut. The medium - and long - term supply is strong, and the inventory is piling up. The new energy vehicle industry has limited impact on nickel demand. The overall situation is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 119,600, and the basis is 2,520, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 252,090 (+120), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 35,027 (+2,333), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. **不锈钢** - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless - steel price has fallen. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the shipping freight is stable, the nickel iron price has declined, the cost line continues to move down, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly. The situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless - steel price is 13,437.5, and the basis is 1,057.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 70,365 (-832), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On November 14, the prices of various types of nickel (SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1金川 nickel, 1进口 nickel, nickel beans) all decreased compared to November 13. The prices of nickel futures (沪镍主力, 伦镍电) also declined [11]. - **Stainless steel**: The prices of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in different regions (Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, Shanghai) either remained unchanged or decreased slightly [11]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. The total inventory increased by 2,453 tons [13][14]. - **Stainless steel**: On November 14, the Wuxi inventory was 584,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 832 to 70,365 [18][19]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron** - **Nickel ore**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore (Ni1.5%, Ni0.9%) remained unchanged on November 14 compared to November 13. The shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable [22]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 1.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [22]. **Stainless - Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost is 12,626, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,882, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,388 [24]. **Nickel Import Cost** - The calculated import price is 119,212 yuan per ton [26].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from a single focus on consumer electronics to a diverse range of applications including electric vehicles, energy storage, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots, as companies seek to build sustainable growth curves amid uncertainty [1][3]. Industry Challenges - The lithium battery supply chain is under pressure this year, with significant fluctuations in upstream raw material prices and a "price war" in the downstream market. The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with lithium iron phosphate batteries capturing over 80% market share in the power sector, while household and commercial energy storage are emerging as new growth engines [3][5]. - The industry has seen a tenfold increase in production over four years, with China holding 75% of global material supply and 85% of power battery capacity. However, leading in scale does not equate to leading in profits, as the overall gross margin has been compressed by 12% to 17%, and net profit margins have dropped below 4% due to cost pressures and price competition [5][12]. Industry Restructuring - The current "big reshuffle" in the lithium battery sector is viewed as a necessary phase towards maturity, as the industry moves from rapid growth to consolidation and differentiation [4][6]. - Companies are shifting their strategic focus towards deep development of niche applications, leveraging a "technology + scenario" approach to build differentiated competitive advantages [8][9]. Technological Development - Companies are adopting practical and diverse strategies in technology selection, with a gradual approach towards solid-state batteries while balancing technological maturity and market acceptance. Lithium iron phosphate has become the dominant technology, holding nearly 80% market share, but nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries remain irreplaceable in high-end applications due to their energy density advantages [10][12]. - The demand for energy storage batteries continues to strengthen, with emerging fields like low-altitude economy and humanoid robots pushing battery technology to new heights [9][10]. Global Market Dynamics - Leading companies are extending their vision to global markets and sustainable development, emphasizing the need for agility and strategic adjustments based on deep technological accumulation and market trend analysis. The industry is shifting from a focus on production capacity to a comprehensive consideration of product quality, brand value, supply chain security, and lifecycle carbon management [12][13]. - The global market is becoming a key battleground for value reconstruction, with a price difference of 15%-20% and stable gross margins above 25% indicating that globalization is essential for profit growth. However, companies must navigate trade barriers such as the US IRA Act and the EU's new battery regulations, which redefine market entry rules [12][13].