光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：成本推升 需求好转 p 2 镍&不锈钢：成本推升 需求好转 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：镍矿方面，印尼镍矿升贴水上涨4.5美元/吨至37美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿1.5%镍矿升水上涨1美金/吨至8.0美元/湿吨；镍铁方面，市场 | | | 主流报价集中在1080-1100元/镍（舱底含税），部分散单报价甚至高达1130-1150元/镍；中间品方面，折扣环比小幅下降，现货价格走弱，交 | | | 易活跃度下降。 | | | 2、需求：新能源方面，周度三元材料产量环比减少664吨至15617吨，库存环比减少533吨至17234吨；周度产量环比增加11.6%至26GWh，其中 | | | 铁锂电池环比增加11.1%至20GWh，三元电池产量环比增加13.2%至6GWh；乘联分会预计节后新能源车整车企业的降价促销能力下降，价格弹 | | | 性偏弱导致消费者心态趋于谨慎 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：津巴布韦禁令发酵 助推盘面强势运行 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；SMM 周度开工率 46.02%（-1.27%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降，SMM 周度总产量 20184 吨（-560 吨），供应小幅收缩。需求端表现分化，铁锂 增产去库，三元产量库存双降；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降 至 36.3%，处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比 -16.7%，同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电 芯产销两旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会 库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，样本周度总库存去库至 102932 吨，总库存天 数降至 29.6 天，回归紧平衡格局。 宏观政策层面，需求侧，汽车以旧换新补贴与电池出口退税直接刺激 终端消费，改善宏观流动性；供给侧，发改委 1 月发布新能源汽车动力电 池综合利用管理办法，提高回收门槛、淘汰落后产能，长期优化国内供应 并抬升成本支撑中枢；产业 ...

2月22日，乘联会秘书长崔东树发文称，2026年1月动力电池走势较弱，无论是出口还是内销的表现均较一般，原有的年末新能源装车高增长带来的电池增 长落空，实际状态很差。1月，我国动力和其它电池合计产量为168GWh，同比增长25%；电池增速从40%以上降到25%，电池供需逐步改善。1月的装车 电池需求极度依赖超高补贴的重卡电池暴增。 动力电池的装车占比 | 单位:GWh | | 动力电池产量 | 三元电池产量 | | | 磷酸铁锂电池 产量 | 动力电池产量 | | | 三元电池产量 | 磷酸铁锂电池 | 产量增速 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 増速 | | 増速 | | | | | | 景月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | 景月 | 累计 | 温月 | 累计 | 景月 | 累计 | | 2026年1月 | 168.0 | 168.0 | 31.3 | 37.3 | 136.7 | 136.7 | 25% | 25% | 30 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained), indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) showed stable year-on-year growth but significant month-on-month declines due to seasonal factors and policy changes regarding purchase tax and subsidies [4]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 40.3% in January, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points, but a month-on-month decrease of 12 percentage points [4]. - The production of power and energy storage batteries in January was 168 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 16.7% but a year-on-year increase of 55.9% [4]. - The sales of power and energy storage batteries were 148.8 GWh, with a month-on-month decline of 25.4% and a year-on-year increase of 85.1% [4]. - Energy storage battery sales accounted for 31% of total sales in January, with a year-on-year growth of 164% [4]. - The report anticipates a rebound in demand for lithium batteries post the Spring Festival, with a significant recovery in production expected in March [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In January 2026, NEV production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%, but month-on-month declines of 39.4% and 44.7% [4]. - Domestic NEV sales were 643,000 units, down 18.9% year-on-year and 54.4% month-on-month [4]. - Exports of NEVs reached 302,000 units, doubling year-on-year and increasing by 0.5% month-on-month [4]. Battery Production and Sales - The total production of power and energy storage batteries was 168 GWh, with power batteries accounting for 102.7 GWh (69% of total sales) and energy storage batteries 46.1 GWh (31% of total sales) [4]. - The export volume of batteries was 24.1 GWh, with power batteries making up 17.7 GWh and energy storage batteries 6.4 GWh [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in the solid-state battery sector, which is expected to drive demand for materials and equipment upgrades [4]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Keda Industrial, and others [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures is driven by a combination of regulatory policies, macroeconomic sentiment, and seasonal trading behaviors, rather than a fundamental shift in the market [4][5]. Market Analysis - The primary driver of the recent downturn is regulatory intervention aimed at cooling speculative trading, including increased fees and margin requirements, which has led to a rapid exit of speculative funds [4]. - Macroeconomic sentiment has also played a role, with declines in prices of major assets like precious metals and crude oil contributing to a general decrease in market risk appetite, further pressuring lithium carbonate prices [4]. - Seasonal factors are evident as investors tend to reduce positions and secure funds ahead of the Chinese New Year, amplifying selling pressure in the market [4]. - Recent data from Chile indicating a significant increase in lithium salt exports has raised concerns about short-term supply pressures, although this is viewed as a temporary spike rather than a long-term trend [4]. Supply and Demand Overview - Current supply dynamics show a slight contraction due to maintenance and seasonal factors, while demand remains resilient supported by battery exports and energy storage needs [5]. - As of January 2026, lithium carbonate production was reported at 97,900 tons, with battery-grade accounting for 71,440 tons, reflecting a minor month-on-month decline [8]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decrease, with total inventory at 107,482 tons as of January 29, 2026, indicating ongoing demand despite price fluctuations [10]. Price Trends - On February 5, 2026, lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, marking a 10.68% drop, with spot prices for high-quality lithium carbonate ranging from 146,200 to 149,500 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The market is currently experiencing a technical adjustment influenced by regulatory measures and seasonal trading patterns, with key support levels needing to be monitored for future price stability [5][13]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are more reflective of market sentiment and seasonal factors rather than a fundamental weakening of supply-demand dynamics [13]. - The expectation of supply tightening due to maintenance and seasonal shutdowns, alongside resilient demand from the battery sector, suggests that the underlying market fundamentals remain intact [13][15].

去年的市场环境转暖，让锂电池产业链尤其是材料端走出阴霾，见到阳光。 起点锂电获悉，近期有多家锂电产业链相关上市公司披露 2025 年业绩预告，其中以正极材料端居多，其扭亏为盈趋势明显。 01 业绩大比拼 先来看电芯环节。 | | 锂电产业链上市公司2025业绩预告汇总 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 电芯板块 | | | 公司名称 | 利润 | 增长率 | | 科研制 | 25亿元-30亿元 | 107.16%-148.59% | | 瑞浦三钧 | 6.30亿元-7.30亿元 | 扭亏为盈 | | 鹏辉制原 | 1.70亿元-2.30亿元 | 扭亏为盈 | | 派能科技 | 6200万元-8600万元 | 50.82%-109.21% | | 商都电源 | 亏损8.9亿元至12.5亿元下ING POINT -- 咸亏 | | | 多氨多 | 2亿元-2.8亿元 | 扭亏为盈 | | 远车股份 | 4500万元到6500万元 | 扭亏为盈 | | LG新能源 | 1.3万亿韩元 | 133.90% | | 字能科技 | 5.8亿元-8.3亿元 | 亏损扩大 | | 三重SDI | 亏损1 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium: Capacity Compensation Policy Implementation and Spot Purchasing Surge May Stabilize Lithium Prices" - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices dropped significantly, but the core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply side is expected to contract marginally as some lithium salt plants plan for phased maintenance, while the demand side shows the characteristic of "not being in the off - season" and remains at a high level. After the price correction, the downstream replenishment willingness has significantly increased. The capacity price policy announced on Friday gives the market a clearer expectation, which may increase the economic viability of independent energy storage systems and potentially raise the project IRR. However, the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs continuous tracking. Currently, the absolute level of lithium prices has fallen to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment willingness will support the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in market funds next week [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices declined sharply. The 2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract closed at 148,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,780 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 10,500 yuan/ton to 160,500 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened by 7,700 yuan/ton to - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quotation was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2605 - 2607 contract spread was - 660 yuan/ton, strengthening by 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - Domestic lithium salt plants are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mining cost has increased significantly. Overseas Simga Lithium announced on January 26 that it has resumed mining operations, and it is expected to produce output around March according to the mining progress. The domestic weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 648 tons from the previous week [3]. Demand - Short - term demand is relatively strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material plants is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly added installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. On Friday evening, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side". This week, the total winning bid scale of energy storage projects was 2.15GW/2.31GWh, a week - on - week decrease of 70.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.58%. According to information providers, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate batteries in February decreased by 9% month - on - month, and that of ternary batteries decreased by 15% month - on - month, with a smaller decline than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory continued to decline, with the industry inventory at 107,482 tons, a reduction of 1,414 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This week, 1,325 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 30,211 lots [4]. 3.3 Market Strategy - Unilateral: High - level fluctuations are expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 145,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Referring to the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm, take profit on long - short spreads at an appropriate time. - Hedging: Due to large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options at an appropriate time [7].

摘要 2025 年 Q4 韩系三大头部电池企业集体陷入亏损，纷纷押注储能与 LFP 电池赛道转型，但面临中国企业竞争壁垒与政策不确定性等困境，短期内 难抵动力电池业务巨额亏损 。 2025年第四季度，韩国头部电池企业盈利防线全面失守， LG新能源、三星SDI、SK On 三家集体陷入亏损，其中此前三季度唯一保持盈利的LG新 能源也未能幸免。 据外媒数据，LG新能源该季度录得 1220亿韩元营业亏损 ，剔除美国先进制造业税收抵免后亏损将突破4500亿韩元；三星SDI同期预计 亏损3003亿 韩元 ，已连续四个季度亏损，全年亏损额或将达1.7万亿韩元；SK On预估 亏损2000亿韩元 ，2025年总亏损规模逼近7000亿韩元。 集体亏损：三家头部企业全线承压 韩系电池企业的集体亏损，是多重因素叠加共振的结果， 其中欧美市场政策调整引发的需求萎缩是首要诱因。 LG新能源在2025年第四季度电话会议中提及， 美国市场 除补贴终止外，大而美法案对下游市场的影响、采购法规变化及关税调整等因素，进一步 降低了市场需求的可见性；同时美国平均金属价格下跌也对电动车销量形成拖累，叠加下半年客户保守管理库存的策略，导致EV电池出 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the power battery industry in China experienced rapid growth, with sales surpassing 1 TWh for the first time, reflecting significant structural changes in exports, material composition, vehicle demand, and market competition [1] Group 1: Sales and Growth - In 2025, the total sales of power batteries reached 1200.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%, significantly higher than the 28.4% growth in 2024 [1] - Cumulative installed capacity was 769.7 GWh, up 40.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 221.3 GWh compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Cumulative exports of power batteries in 2025 reached 189.7 GWh, a year-on-year growth of 41.9%, a substantial increase from the 5.0% growth in 2024 [3] - In December 2025, exports of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 51.3% of total monthly exports, marking a 71.1% year-on-year increase and surpassing the previously dominant ternary batteries [3] Group 3: Battery Type Performance - In 2025, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 625.3 GWh, representing 81.2% of total installed capacity, with a year-on-year growth of 52.9% [5] - The installed capacity of ternary batteries dropped to 18.7%, with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7%, continuing a downward trend from 10.2% in 2024 [5] Group 4: Commercial Vehicle Growth - The growth of commercial vehicles was explosive, with the installed capacity of pure electric trucks increasing to 17.7%, a year-on-year growth of 168.9% [7] - The average battery capacity of new energy vehicles rose to 55.2 kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [7] Group 5: Market Structure and Competition - The market competition is evolving from a "dual dominance" to a "stable head and diverse rise," with CATL and BYD maintaining their leading positions but seeing their combined market share decrease from 69.8% to 64.9% [10] - Mid-tier companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech are gaining market share, with Guoxuan's installed capacity reaching 43.44 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points [12] Group 6: Material Demand and Pricing - The demand for core materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials surged by over 50% in 2025 [14] - By the end of 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 150,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a more than 60% increase compared to the end of 2024 [14] Group 7: December Performance Highlights - In December 2025, power battery sales reached 143.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%, while installed capacity was 98.1 GWh, up 35.1% year-on-year [16] - The growth was driven by policy incentives and strong end-user demand, with major automakers launching promotional campaigns to stimulate purchases [15]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the power battery market in December was weak, with both exports and domestic sales underwhelming, leading to a significant reliance on heavily subsidized heavy-duty truck batteries [1] - The production of power and other batteries in China reached 202 GWh in December, marking a 49% year-on-year increase, while the total production for the year was 1756 GWh, up 44% year-on-year [3][4] - The market share of leading battery manufacturers, CATL and BYD, remains strong, with a combined market share of 62% expected to persist into 2025 [2][23] Battery Production and Demand - In December 2025, the proportion of power batteries used in vehicles is projected to decrease to 49%, with ternary battery usage at 45% and lithium iron phosphate at 50% [4][5] - The demand for electric vehicle batteries continues to grow, with a forecast of 14.5 million new energy vehicles in 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year [14] - The energy density of battery models with over 160 Wh/kg is expected to decline, with only 10% of models in this category by Q4 2025, down from 13% in 2024 [22] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for battery manufacturers remains dominated by CATL and BYD, with CATL's market share projected to decrease to 43.2% by Q4 2025, while BYD's share fluctuates around 22.6% [23] - Emerging companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Geely Yao Ning are showing strong performance, indicating potential growth opportunities in the market [2][23] - The overall battery market is characterized by a stable competitive structure, with larger companies continuing to expand their market share while smaller firms seek technological advancements to gain traction [17]