Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current nickel supply and demand are generally loose, putting downward pressure on nickel prices, which are expected to remain weak. The overall improvement in the actual supply - demand fundamentals will gradually emerge in the second quarter of 2026. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to find support around 110,000 yuan, and the strategy is to short on rebounds and be cautious about short - selling [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 18, the futures price of the main Shanghai nickel contract dropped by more than 1.5%, and the decline in the last four trading days exceeded 2.7%. On November 17, the average price of SMM electrolytic nickel was 118,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous day. The current decline is due to overall supply - demand looseness and high LME nickel inventories, which have been above 260,000 tons since October 16 and are still increasing. Also, the official announcement of the total RKAB nickel ore quota in Indonesia in 2026 is expected between December and January 2020, and the nickel price will run weakly before that [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In October, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production was 139,900 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 14%. Nickel matte production was 22,600 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 31% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. MHP production was 40,700 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 33%. In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% - Demand side: In October, the national stainless steel output was 4.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. From January to October, China's stainless steel output was 28.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In October, Indonesia's stainless steel output was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to October, Indonesia's cumulative stainless steel output was 4.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In October, the ternary material output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 32%. From January to October, the ternary material output was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% - Currently, supply still generally exceeds demand, LME nickel inventories have continuously increased to 257,604 tons, and Shanghai nickel weekly inventories have continuously increased to 35,828 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - The current nickel supply and demand are generally loose, causing nickel prices to run weakly. Although there are still fluctuations in the RKAB nickel quota and quantity, the official announcement of the quota is expected between December this year and January 2020. The market expects the total quota to decline, but the actual improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals will gradually appear in the second quarter of 2026. Looking forward, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to find support around 110,000 yuan, and the strategy is to short on rebounds and be cautious about short - selling [5]

Core Insights - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is reported at 123,300.00 CNY/ton, with a premium of 1,130.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton for the main contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [2] - Nickel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, with a cumulative reduction of 1,022 tons (4.42%) over the past week and 2,680 tons (10.81%) over the past month [3] Price Overview - The market prices for 1 nickel (Ni9990) vary, with quotes of 124,750 CNY/ton in Guangzhou, 125,000 CNY/ton in Shanghai from Shanghai Jincang Material Company, and 123,350 CNY/ton from Shanghai Huato Nonferrous Metals Market [2] - The ex-factory price for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is reported at 124,300 CNY/ton in Jinchang, Gansu Province [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic nickel pig iron supply has significantly decreased year-on-year, while Indonesian supply remains high [4] - April saw an increase in electrolytic nickel production, and stainless steel production remained at high levels [4] - The demand outlook may be affected by ongoing trade disputes, but short-term improvements in macroeconomic conditions are anticipated to support prices [4]