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供需有改善,镍价暂时反弹
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 03:22
Core Viewpoint - The short-term decline of the US dollar index indicates reduced macro pressure on the market, while the fundamentals for nickel remain tight due to low exchange inventories and healthy primary nickel market supply. The improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports a favorable nickel price outlook in the short term, but medium-term supply pressures are expected to limit the upside potential of nickel prices [1]. Nickel Ore Market - The average CIF price for nickel ore with 1.5% content is $50 per wet ton, down $2 from the previous week, indicating a continued slowdown in the decline of nickel ore supply and demand [3]. - The average price for high-nickel pig iron (8-12%) was 1107.5 yuan per nickel point, up 55 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a rising willingness among iron mills to maintain prices and an improving sentiment in the downstream stainless steel market [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent closure of the import window, tight Russian nickel premiums, and the inversion of JinChuan nickel prices indicate a healthy supply in the primary nickel market, despite low exchange inventories [4]. - Reports suggest that stainless steel mills are concentrating their purchases, leading to an increase in transaction prices, which enhances market confidence [4]. - The consumption of alloys has shown improvement, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. However, if nickel prices continue to rise significantly, the profitability of MHP or sulfate nickel production may lead to accelerated production of electrolytic nickel, potentially resulting in medium-term supply surplus pressures on nickel prices [4].