Core Viewpoint - The short-term decline of the US dollar index indicates reduced macro pressure on the market, while the fundamentals for nickel remain tight due to low exchange inventories and healthy primary nickel market supply. The improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports a favorable nickel price outlook in the short term, but medium-term supply pressures are expected to limit the upside potential of nickel prices [1]. Nickel Ore Market - The average CIF price for nickel ore with 1.5% content is $50 per wet ton, down $2 from the previous week, indicating a continued slowdown in the decline of nickel ore supply and demand [3]. - The average price for high-nickel pig iron (8-12%) was 1107.5 yuan per nickel point, up 55 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a rising willingness among iron mills to maintain prices and an improving sentiment in the downstream stainless steel market [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent closure of the import window, tight Russian nickel premiums, and the inversion of JinChuan nickel prices indicate a healthy supply in the primary nickel market, despite low exchange inventories [4]. - Reports suggest that stainless steel mills are concentrating their purchases, leading to an increase in transaction prices, which enhances market confidence [4]. - The consumption of alloys has shown improvement, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. However, if nickel prices continue to rise significantly, the profitability of MHP or sulfate nickel production may lead to accelerated production of electrolytic nickel, potentially resulting in medium-term supply surplus pressures on nickel prices [4].

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined nickel surplus of 3.6 million tons in July 2025, with production at 320,100 tons and consumption at 284,500 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,237,600 tons, while consumption was 1,993,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 244,300 tons [1] - In July 2025, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and for the first seven months of 2025, it totaled 2,326,200 tons [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Nornickel anticipates a global nickel surplus of 130,000 tons in 2026, following a surplus of 120,000 tons in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to global trade disruptions and reduced demand for electric vehicles, the supply surplus of nickel will increase to approximately 260,000 tons by 2025 [1] Industry Summary - Global trade disruptions are impacting demand forecasts for nickel [1] - The demand for electric vehicles is decreasing, contributing to the overall decline in nickel demand [1] - The anticipated supply surplus of nickel highlights potential challenges for the industry moving forward [1]