热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 进入12月后，镍价先是窄幅震荡后快速下探再迅速拉升，前期产业链过剩压力依然显著，沪镍指数最低 跌破11.2万元/吨，LME镍则跌至14235美元/吨，后续因印尼可能下调明年镍矿产量目标，镍价快速收复 前期跌幅。 印尼镍矿政策存扰动 印尼镍产量在全球占比六至七成，其产业发展政策直接影响全球镍元素供应。近期，随着镍价不断探 底，市场出现一些变化：据印尼镍矿商协会（APNI），政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提 出镍矿石产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降，不过该产量目标仍属于政府 层面的规划，最终实施方式尚不明确，能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）就未来镍矿配额问题还在商议中； 其二，印尼将于2026年1月或2月修订镍价参考公式，重点是将镍的伴生矿产尤其是钴视为独立商品征收 特许权使用费，这一变动将提高镍矿成本。 据Mysteel，进入12月后，国内进口镍矿价格弱势持稳，上周菲律宾Eramen矿山1.4%镍矿成交落地 FOB40，装船出货效率尚可；下游企业多有年前备货需求，对镍矿压价心态或有放缓；海运费持稳， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and an unchanged supply surplus pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, it is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][4] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,970 yuan/ton and closed at 115,870 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 106,815 (-13,204) lots, and the open interest was 106,302 (+3,719) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high, then moving low, and closing weakly, in an overall weakly oscillating pattern, affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand and macro - economics [1] Fundamental - The current pattern of nickel supply surplus remains unchanged. Although refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the production of primary nickel in December increased month - on - month, and the reduction in refined nickel production in November was lower than expected, having a limited marginal impact on the market supply - demand balance sheet [1] Macro - The Fed cut interest rates in December, but subsequent statements were hawkish, and the previous positive factors have basically been reflected in the market [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market was calm, with prices stable. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and their price - holding mentality recovered. As downstream ferronickel prices rebounded and domestic factories needed to stock up before the Spring Festival, the mentality of pressing down prices for nickel ore purchases may ease. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to drop by 0.11 - 0.18 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market showed no obvious improvement, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 5,100 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,939 (-296) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,852 (-240) tons [2] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,550 yuan/ton and closed at 12,625 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 83,489 (+3,558) lots, and the open interest was 103,523 (-4,171) lots. After the contract changed to 2602, it continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a narrow - range weakly oscillating pattern and closing slightly lower. Technically, the price closed below the 5 - day moving average, remaining in a short - term weak pattern, but there was strong support around 12,400 yuan/ton [3] Spot - Downstream buyers remained cautious, and trading did not improve. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,800 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 195 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 888.5 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term decline of the US dollar index indicates reduced macro pressure on the market, while the fundamentals for nickel remain tight due to low exchange inventories and healthy primary nickel market supply. The improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports a favorable nickel price outlook in the short term, but medium-term supply pressures are expected to limit the upside potential of nickel prices [1]. Nickel Ore Market - The average CIF price for nickel ore with 1.5% content is $50 per wet ton, down $2 from the previous week, indicating a continued slowdown in the decline of nickel ore supply and demand [3]. - The average price for high-nickel pig iron (8-12%) was 1107.5 yuan per nickel point, up 55 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a rising willingness among iron mills to maintain prices and an improving sentiment in the downstream stainless steel market [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent closure of the import window, tight Russian nickel premiums, and the inversion of JinChuan nickel prices indicate a healthy supply in the primary nickel market, despite low exchange inventories [4]. - Reports suggest that stainless steel mills are concentrating their purchases, leading to an increase in transaction prices, which enhances market confidence [4]. - The consumption of alloys has shown improvement, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. However, if nickel prices continue to rise significantly, the profitability of MHP or sulfate nickel production may lead to accelerated production of electrolytic nickel, potentially resulting in medium-term supply surplus pressures on nickel prices [4].

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined nickel surplus of 3.6 million tons in July 2025, with production at 320,100 tons and consumption at 284,500 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,237,600 tons, while consumption was 1,993,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 244,300 tons [1] - In July 2025, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and for the first seven months of 2025, it totaled 2,326,200 tons [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Nornickel anticipates a global nickel surplus of 130,000 tons in 2026, following a surplus of 120,000 tons in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to global trade disruptions and reduced demand for electric vehicles, the supply surplus of nickel will increase to approximately 260,000 tons by 2025 [1] Industry Summary - Global trade disruptions are impacting demand forecasts for nickel [1] - The demand for electric vehicles is decreasing, contributing to the overall decline in nickel demand [1] - The anticipated supply surplus of nickel highlights potential challenges for the industry moving forward [1]