高库存制约镍价反弹力度 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美国9月非农就业人数超预期，但失业率升至4.4%，12月降息预期不明朗。中国经济缺乏亮点， 仍受房地产市场拖累，股市近期大幅下挫，市场等待政策助力。 产业方面：本次镍价下跌前，由于纯镍与硫酸镍价差扩大，已有部分电积镍产线转产硫酸镍。镍价跌至成 本附近引发进一步减产，预计11-12月纯镍产量显著下降。生产商惜售挺价，现货普遍升水，金川镍升水已 经从2000翻倍至4000以上。不过需求端也进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也 环比走弱。供需双弱下，关注进口镍能否有增量弥补。国内库存本周减少，LME库存小幅增加，国内外合 计累库速度放缓。 期货层面：沪镍持仓达到30万手，创出2021年以来的新低。伦镍跟随沪镍下跌，尚未达到4月低点。周五 传闻印尼某MHP厂生产干扰影响6000金吨产量，或将进一步影响纯镍和 ...

此外，高压酸浸工艺生产商还面临着硫磺采购成本上涨的压力——硫磺是生产硫酸所需的化学品。 智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，印尼核心镍产区一座中资控股的大型冶炼厂正因其尾矿库即将满 容而削减产量，这一事件凸显出镍行业日益严峻的废料管理难题。 知情人士表示，印尼青美邦新能源材料有限公司(PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd.)的减产将至少 持续两周。据悉，该公司股东包括格林美(002340.SZ)与青山控股集团(Tsinghan Holding Group Co.)。 位于苏拉威西岛的印尼莫罗瓦利工业园是该国规模最大的镍工业基地，也是青美邦工厂的所在地。园区 代表证实了此次产能利用率下调，并补充称："工厂位于园区内的尾矿库已接近饱和，而新尾矿库的相 关审批文件仍在办理中。" 作为青美邦的最大投资者，格林美未立即回应置评请求。 得益于中资推动的产能扩张，印尼镍产量已占全球总产量的一半以上。镍作为电动汽车电池与不锈钢的 关键原材料，其生产中广泛采用的高压酸浸工艺(HPAL)虽能处理低品位矿石且成本相对较低，但会产 生大量废料——这类废料通常需经干燥压实后再进行储存。 随着镍行业的快 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has experienced a decline of over 17%, yet its year-to-date increase remains above 2.8 times [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's stock price dropped by 17.38%, trading at 2.9 HKD, with a transaction volume of 154 million HKD [1] - The company announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a Chinese stock exchange to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshan East, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujiahe, and a fluorite mine: Kalchaer [1] Industry Summary - According to Jianyin International, recent changes in Indonesia's RKAB regulations and increased mining supervision, along with the declaration of force majeure at the world's second-largest copper mine, have raised global metal supply concerns [1] - Nickel prices surged past 124,000 due to these factors, but the fundamental oversupply of primary nickel has not changed significantly, indicating that nickel prices may face upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has experienced a decline of over 17%, yet its year-to-date increase remains above 2.8 times [1] Company Summary - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a Chinese stock exchange to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - The company fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshan East, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and a fluorite mine: Kalchaer [1] Industry Summary - According to Jianyin International, recent changes in Indonesia's RKAB regulations and increased mining supervision, along with the declaration of force majeure at the world's second-largest copper mine, have raised global metal supply concerns [1] - Nickel prices surged past 124,000 due to these factors, but the fundamental oversupply of primary nickel has not changed significantly, indicating that nickel prices may face upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term decline of the US dollar index indicates reduced macro pressure on the market, while the fundamentals for nickel remain tight due to low exchange inventories and healthy primary nickel market supply. The improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports a favorable nickel price outlook in the short term, but medium-term supply pressures are expected to limit the upside potential of nickel prices [1]. Nickel Ore Market - The average CIF price for nickel ore with 1.5% content is $50 per wet ton, down $2 from the previous week, indicating a continued slowdown in the decline of nickel ore supply and demand [3]. - The average price for high-nickel pig iron (8-12%) was 1107.5 yuan per nickel point, up 55 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a rising willingness among iron mills to maintain prices and an improving sentiment in the downstream stainless steel market [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent closure of the import window, tight Russian nickel premiums, and the inversion of JinChuan nickel prices indicate a healthy supply in the primary nickel market, despite low exchange inventories [4]. - Reports suggest that stainless steel mills are concentrating their purchases, leading to an increase in transaction prices, which enhances market confidence [4]. - The consumption of alloys has shown improvement, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. However, if nickel prices continue to rise significantly, the profitability of MHP or sulfate nickel production may lead to accelerated production of electrolytic nickel, potentially resulting in medium-term supply surplus pressures on nickel prices [4].