情绪持续发酵，镍不锈钢反弹延续 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格133800元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨5400元/吨。镍价大幅上涨，现货成交偏 淡，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水略有下移。其中金川镍升水变化-150元/吨至6750元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至400 元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为38621（-301）吨，LME镍库存为254604（216）吨。 策略 受印尼政策变化影响，当前看涨情绪高涨，预计镍价仍将整体保持反弹态势。但基本面方面库存高企，供应过剩 格局不改，将对镍价的反弹力度造成一定拖累。 单边：区间操作为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-24日沪镍主力合约2602开于120280元/吨，收于123440元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化3.92%，当日成交量为 386986（+190610）手，持仓量为134454（21822）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约延续强势震荡，资金流入显著，核心驱动为印尼配额收缩预期与外盘带动，同时受 高库存、多空分歧等因素制约。宏观方面，印尼政策影响仍在持续发酵，美 ...

在全球最大镍生产国印度尼西亚计划大幅削减明年镍矿供应配额及拟议调整矿产计价规则的预期刺激 下，长期处于价格低谷的金属镍迎来强势反弹。12月23日盘中，LME镍最高触及15980美元／吨，随后 在12月24日盘中，沪镍更是一度冲高至130880元／吨，均创下8个月以来新高。 近期印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表示，政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量目 标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降，下调产量规划的目的是为了防止镍价进一步 下跌。镍参考价HPM的计算公式也或将面临修订，核心重点是将镍的伴生矿产（尤其是钴）视为独立 商品并征收特许权使用费。 中信期货研报进一步指出，虽然国内电镍11月产量环比大减约28%至2.58万吨，供应端出现较为明显边 际收窄，但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰镍和镍铁产量均维持同比增长，整 体镍供给端压力仍存。同时，需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走 弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电镀和合金端也预计将有所下滑。整体镍基本面过剩状态维持，显性库 存仍处高位。 尽管镍价涨势凌厉，但分析人士也提示 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日沪镍大幅反弹，主力合约2601开于116600元/吨，收于121360元/吨，涨幅4.55%。镍价连续两个交 易日大幅上涨，已升至2个月内高位。 镍价的连续上涨主要是受到印尼方面供给收紧的政策预期影响。上周，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）称， 印尼政府在《2026年工作计划与预算》中提议将明年产量较今年总量削减34%，降至2.5亿吨；此外， 该组织还透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于2026年初修订镍矿商品的基准价格公式，相关人士透 露，未来钴等镍伴生矿产可能因被视为独立矿产而产生特许权使用费。两则消息分别强化了镍矿端的供 给收缩预期，以及成本提升预期，导致镍价从底部强势反弹。 但需注意的是，两项政策的准确性仍待确认，印尼政府并未正式公布，存在修改或反复的可能性。此 外，基本面方面，下游不锈钢消费处于淡季，沪镍库存仍在不断增加，镍价反弹的持续性仍有待关注。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the high inventory restricts the rebound strength of nickel prices. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the production of pure nickel will significantly decline from November to December. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options at resistance levels [6]. - For stainless steel, the overall trading atmosphere is still weak, with terminal demand in the off - season. The price is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The strategy is to sell on rebounds for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 308,000 tons. LME inventory is 254,000 tons, increasing by 2,082 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 39,800 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 52,000 tons, decreasing by 855 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period [17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand of Refined Nickel - **Supply**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. The net import was 47,200 tons, compared with a net export of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, it turned to net export. The supply from January to October was 383,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. It is expected that the total output in November will remain high at 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month [25]. - **Demand**: From January to October, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will be more obvious. In October, the downstream demand for nickel fell below the 50 boom - bust line [29]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore is stable but under great pressure. The willingness of Philippine nickel mines to hold prices is strong, but the high - nickel iron market has limited ability to absorb nickel ore, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The premium of domestic - trade nickel ore in November was flat month - on - month [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increased, and the price was under pressure. The production of China + Indonesia's NPI from January to October showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory of NPI in China also increased [34][36]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series weakened. The price of chrome ore has been declining continuously. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in December 2025 decreased month - on - month [38]. - **Cost Inversion of Cold - Rolled Products**: The prices of various raw materials such as nickel ore, high - nickel iron, and chromium series showed a downward trend from November 17th to 21st [43]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to October, the combined stainless - steel crude - steel output of China and Indonesia increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the output decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, exports remained flat year - on - year, and net exports increased by 14% year - on - year [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate and provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to September reached 28%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%. From January to October, the sales were 12.911 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The power cell production also increased. However, the off - season is coming, and a decline in the power sector is likely [61]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year. US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year, and European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports from January to October increased by 87% year - on - year [68]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to October, the cumulative output of nickel sulfate decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The output of ternary precursors decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons, and the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons [70]. - **Raw Materials**: The output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons, and the output of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate has stimulated the recovery of intermediate product output [74]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Market - There is a significant domestic surplus of pure nickel due to a large increase in imports [75].

Group 1 - A major nickel smelter in Indonesia, controlled by Chinese investors, is reducing production due to its tailings storage nearing capacity, highlighting the industry's waste management challenges [1] - The production cut by PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd. is expected to last at least two weeks, with the company being backed by investors such as GEM Co. and Tsingshan Holding Group [1] - The Morowali Industrial Park, where the smelter is located, is Indonesia's largest nickel industrial base, and the facility's tailings storage is close to saturation while new storage approvals are still pending [1] Group 2 - Regulatory scrutiny of the nickel industry in Indonesia is increasing, driven by environmental concerns related to waste management [2] - Experts question the long-term safety and sustainability of the high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process in Indonesia, especially after a fatal landslide incident earlier this year [2] Group 3 - High-pressure acid leaching producers are facing rising sulfur procurement costs, which is essential for sulfuric acid production [3] - Despite cost pressures, demand for nickel-cobalt hydroxide products has strengthened this year, largely due to cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 4 - Nickel has underperformed in a year where base metals are generally weak, with oversupply putting continuous pressure on prices and squeezing industry profitability [4] - A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that the market is experiencing oversupply due to a surge in production, particularly from Indonesia, with global primary nickel production expected to grow by 8% this year [4] - There is potential for a significant price rebound if Indonesia implements effective production controls, as stricter regulations could lead to rapid price increases similar to recent trends in other base metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has experienced a decline of over 17%, yet its year-to-date increase remains above 2.8 times [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's stock price dropped by 17.38%, trading at 2.9 HKD, with a transaction volume of 154 million HKD [1] - The company announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a Chinese stock exchange to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshan East, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujiahe, and a fluorite mine: Kalchaer [1] Industry Summary - According to Jianyin International, recent changes in Indonesia's RKAB regulations and increased mining supervision, along with the declaration of force majeure at the world's second-largest copper mine, have raised global metal supply concerns [1] - Nickel prices surged past 124,000 due to these factors, but the fundamental oversupply of primary nickel has not changed significantly, indicating that nickel prices may face upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has experienced a decline of over 17%, yet its year-to-date increase remains above 2.8 times [1] Company Summary - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining announced plans to issue A-shares and list on a Chinese stock exchange to promote sustainable growth in revenue and shareholder returns [1] - The company fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshan East, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and a fluorite mine: Kalchaer [1] Industry Summary - According to Jianyin International, recent changes in Indonesia's RKAB regulations and increased mining supervision, along with the declaration of force majeure at the world's second-largest copper mine, have raised global metal supply concerns [1] - Nickel prices surged past 124,000 due to these factors, but the fundamental oversupply of primary nickel has not changed significantly, indicating that nickel prices may face upward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term decline of the US dollar index indicates reduced macro pressure on the market, while the fundamentals for nickel remain tight due to low exchange inventories and healthy primary nickel market supply. The improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports a favorable nickel price outlook in the short term, but medium-term supply pressures are expected to limit the upside potential of nickel prices [1]. Nickel Ore Market - The average CIF price for nickel ore with 1.5% content is $50 per wet ton, down $2 from the previous week, indicating a continued slowdown in the decline of nickel ore supply and demand [3]. - The average price for high-nickel pig iron (8-12%) was 1107.5 yuan per nickel point, up 55 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a rising willingness among iron mills to maintain prices and an improving sentiment in the downstream stainless steel market [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent closure of the import window, tight Russian nickel premiums, and the inversion of JinChuan nickel prices indicate a healthy supply in the primary nickel market, despite low exchange inventories [4]. - Reports suggest that stainless steel mills are concentrating their purchases, leading to an increase in transaction prices, which enhances market confidence [4]. - The consumption of alloys has shown improvement, supporting a rebound in nickel prices. However, if nickel prices continue to rise significantly, the profitability of MHP or sulfate nickel production may lead to accelerated production of electrolytic nickel, potentially resulting in medium-term supply surplus pressures on nickel prices [4].