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建信期货:镍日报-20250530
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the weakening of news - related disturbances, the nickel market returns to the surplus trading logic, but due to concerns about the subsequent RKAB supplementary quota approval process, the downside space is limited, and low - level long - position allocation is still advisable. With the approaching holiday, risk avoidance should be the main focus [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 29th, Shanghai nickel hit bottom and rebounded. The main contract dropped to around 118,000 during the day but recovered above 120,000, with the decline narrowing to 0.63%. The total index position decreased by 7,354 to 188,307 lots. As the price fell, the spot premium firmed up, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,500 yuan/ton and the Russian nickel premium at 300 yuan/ton [9]. - For nickel ore, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable at $26 - 28 per wet ton this week. The decline of the new round of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore HPM was slight, and considering the stable and strong premium in current negotiations, the Indonesian ore price is likely to rise rather than fall [9]. - On the 29th, the LME nickel inventory decreased slightly to 200,142 tons, and the slowdown in inventory accumulation reduced the price pressure. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped to 27,915 yuan. Considering the expected improvement in market demand in June and the cost support of nickel salts, the decline of nickel salt prices is limited [9]. 3.2行业要闻 - SMM expects that the Indonesian domestic trade ore HPM will remain stable with a slight decline in the first half of June, with an expected month - on - month decline of 0.06%. The HMA in the first half of June is $15,405 per ton, a decrease of $10 per ton. The HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores are expected to decline slightly compared to the second half of May. SMM also expects that the premium in June will be difficult to rise and may remain stable at the May level [10][11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operational battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, marking the first step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts and almost no silver (Ag), with silver usage below 0.5 mg/W. It achieved nearly the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing production costs [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is its tenth approved energy storage project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11][12].