长丝行业供需格局优化
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新凤鸣(603225):淡季供需偏弱拖累短期业绩,看好长丝龙头长期业绩弹性
Xinda Securities· 2025-10-31 07:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance despite a weak supply-demand environment in the short term, with a focus on long-term growth potential in the polyester filament industry [4][6] - The company reported a revenue of 51.542 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.869 billion yuan, up 16.53% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.66% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 0.160 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.30% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 60.36% [2] - The company’s average selling prices for its main products (POY, FDY, DTY, and short fibers) decreased year-on-year, but the decline was less than the drop in raw material costs [4] Industry Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics in the polyester filament market are expected to improve gradually, with the company positioned as a leading player benefiting from enhanced cost control and market share [4][6] - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 70 USD/barrel, down 15% year-on-year, which has contributed to a decrease in raw material costs for the company [4] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.169 billion yuan, 1.369 billion yuan, and 1.582 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 6.3%, 17.1%, and 15.5% [6] - The estimated EPS (diluted) for the same years is expected to be 0.77 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.04 yuan, with P/E ratios of 21.28, 18.17, and 15.73, respectively [6]