行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化行业周报（20260323-20260327） 推荐（维持） 油价高位震荡，下游化工品持续顺价传导 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2026E | | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 评级 | | 中国海油 | 600938.SH | 41.07 | 3.02 | 3.09 | | 13.59 | 13.29 | | 2.27 | 强推 | | 恒力石化 | 600346.SH | 21.36 | 1.35 | 1.62 | | 15.85 | 13.16 | | 2.05 | 强推 | | 荣盛石化 | 002493.SZ | 12.10 | 0.43 | 0.53 | | 28.40 | 22.84 | | 2.60 | 强推 | | 广汇能源 ...

PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 县 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY 现金流 FDY : ( : ) 800 涤短现金流 600- 700 400 600 200 500 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-01024-02024-02024-08025-01025-02025-01026-01 -800 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [133]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in pricing across various segments of the refining and chemical industry due to fluctuating oil prices. Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, up 357 CNY/ton (17%) week-on-week, while international projects saw a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,148 CNY/ton (64%) [2]. - In the polyester sector, average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 1,421 CNY/ton, 1,525 CNY/ton, and 1,639 CNY/ton. The average profit margins for these products also improved significantly [2]. - The report notes that the PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, up 258.7 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price difference from crude oil of 575.3 USD/ton, reflecting a 148.0 USD/ton increase [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Refining Index and Project Price Differences - Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, an increase of 357 CNY/ton (16.9%) week-on-week, while international projects reported a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, up 1,148 CNY/ton (63.8%) [2][12]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases. The average profit margins for POY, FDY, and DTY were 311 CNY/ton, 230 CNY/ton, and 321 CNY/ton, reflecting substantial improvements [2][30][31]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices increased, with gasoline averaging 184 USD/barrel and diesel at 154 USD/barrel, both showing week-on-week increases [2][69]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - The PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 258.7 USD/ton. The report also highlights various chemical products and their price movements, indicating a robust performance in the chemical sector [2][112][118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including the price differences of key refining and chemical projects at home and abroad, the performance of the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of six private large refining companies [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Six Private Refining Companies' Market Performance**: The report tracks the price changes of six private refining companies (Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming) in the past week, month, three - month, one - year, and from the beginning of 2026 to the present. For example, the oil and petrochemical index increased by 8.1% in the past week, while Xin Fengming decreased by 9.3% [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the earnings forecast of six private refining companies from 2024 to 2027, including net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Price and Refining Price Difference**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 82.0 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 15.0%. The price difference of domestic refining projects this week is 2064 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.6%, and that of foreign refining projects is 1777 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 57.3% [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Price Difference Trends - **Domestic and Foreign Refining Project Price Differences**: The domestic key large refining project price difference this week is 2064 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 122 yuan/ton (- 6%); the foreign key large refining project price difference this week is 1777 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 648 yuan/ton (+ 57%) [2]. 3.2.2 Polyester Sector - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY/FDY/DTY this week are 7357/7532/8454 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 279/254/275 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are 42/ - 107/ - 93 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 78/94/80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY is 18.7/25.0/27.6 days respectively, with no week - on - week change. The filament operating rate is 80.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.0 percentage points. The downstream loom operating rate is 22.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 10.9 percentage points [2]. 3.2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline and diesel in China increased this week [2]. - **US Refined Oil**: The price of gasoline in the US increased this week [2]. 3.2.4 Chemical Sector - **PX**: The average price of PX this week is 1026.0 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 97.4 US dollars per ton. The price difference compared with crude oil is 427.3 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19.4 US dollars per ton. The PX operating rate is 92.1%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. The PTA industry remains strong, with expected record - high production in January 2024 in China, no Spring Festival production cut plans, and no new capacity throughout the year. PX supply is still tight, and the domestic PTA high - operation rate and the limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts support the market [3]. - MEG: After a long - term slump overseas, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction due to production line conversion provides room for price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price increased from 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9, 2026, to 476.1 yuan/barrel on February 10, 2026, a rise of 11.9 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 48.48 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0275 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 900 to 909, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 297 to 311 [3]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 5192 yuan/ton to 5230 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5115 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 4.8 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 increased by 2004 [3]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 3739 yuan/ton to 3733 yuan/ton, and MEG - naphtha remained unchanged. The MEG内盘 decreased from 3635 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 3 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash - flow of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased to varying degrees [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.92%, PTA start - up rate remained at 76.73%, MEG start - up rate increased from 61.67% to 62.36%, and polyester load decreased from 77.49% to 77.26% [3]. 3.3 Production and Sales Situation - The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 12% to 13%, the short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 41% to 39%, and the polyester chip production and sales rate increased from 22% to 23% [3]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the specific restart time is undetermined [4].

Group 1 - The TMP industry is expected to see price increases post-holiday due to supply-side contraction and strong downstream replenishment demand, with domestic manufacturers like Wanhua exiting 100,000 tons/year capacity and overseas Pashto undergoing a 50,000 tons/year maintenance [1] - The polyester industry chain is experiencing a price gap recovery, with PTA price gap nearing breakeven, while polyester filament load drops to 75.2%, and POY and FDY price gaps reach a six-month high, with polyester bottle chip price gap hitting a two-year high [1] - The dye industry has low inventory levels, with disperse dyes expected to rise by another 10% before the holiday, and the price of brilliant blue dye skyrocketing from 80,000 to 180,000 yuan/ton, with further price increases anticipated post-holiday, led by Zhejiang Longsheng [1] Group 2 - As of February 11, the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) rose by 1.66%, with its related index, subdivided chemicals (000813.CSI), also increasing by 1.66%; major constituent stocks include Xinzhou Bang up by 8.49%, Yanhua Co. up by 1.64%, Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 2.49%, Guangwei Composite up by 3.49%, and Yuntianhua up by 1.58% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that domestic and international refining projects are experiencing price changes, with domestic projects showing a price difference of 2403 CNY/ton, up by 38 CNY/ton (2% increase) compared to the previous week [2] - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY/ton [2] - The average profit for POY, FDY, and DTY is reported at 208, 80, and 80 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - The PX average price this week is 895.6 USD/ton, down by 26.4 USD/ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of 404.1 USD/ton, which is a decrease of 23.5 USD/ton [2] - The PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, showing no change from the previous week [2] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen this week, as have gasoline prices in the United States [2] Group 3 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has fallen significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no Spring Festival production cut plan. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to match the growth in polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply side remains tight, and the global effective production capacity release is limited. Although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3] - MEG: After the long - term downturn of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, to 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, a decrease of 21.80 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1848.6 yuan/ton to 1829.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.58 yuan/ton; PTA/SC increased from 1.5403 to 1.5606, an increase of 0.0202; CFR China PX decreased from 913 to 891, a decrease of 22; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 317 to 295, a decrease of 22; PTA主力期价 decreased from 5270 yuan/ton to 5092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 5280 yuan/ton to 5095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 477.3 yuan/ton to 406.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.4 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 467.3 yuan/ton to 403.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.4 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from (76) to (71), an increase of 5.0; PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged at 103558 [3] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3913 yuan/ton to 3767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (176.17) yuan/ton to (190.17) yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3835 yuan/ton to 3722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from - 126 to - 122, an increase of 4.0 [3] Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 increased from 85.82% to 85.92%, an increase of 0.10% - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63% - MEG开工率 increased from 60.29% to 62.48%, an increase of 2.19% - 聚酯负荷 decreased from 80.82% to 79.76%, a decrease of 1.06% [3] Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7120; POY现金流 increased from 71 to 267, an increase of 196.0; FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 7320; FDY现金流 increased from (229) to (33), an increase of 196.0; DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8210; DTY现金流 increased from (39) to 157, an increase of 196.0; 长丝产销 decreased from 28% to 18%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6685 to 6545, a decrease of 140; 涤短现金流 increased from (14) to 42, an increase of 56.0; 短纤产销 increased from 41% to 66%, an increase of 25% [3] - **Polyester Chip**: 半光切片 decreased from 5990 to 5860, a decrease of 130.0; 切片现金流 increased from (159) to (93), an increase of 66.0; 切片产销 remained unchanged at 54% [3] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th - A 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [3]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

| 证券代码：002135 | 证券简称：东南网架 | 公告编号：2026-004 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127103 | 债券简称：东南转债 | | 浙江东南网架股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第四季度经营数据的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》等相关规定，浙江东南网架股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年第四季度主要经营情况披露如下： 一、主要经营情况 1、建筑业务经营情况 2025 年 10 月至 12 月，公司（包括控股子公司）新签订单 22 项，合同金额 总计人民币 77,644.62 万元，较上年同期减少 52.58%。 2025 年，公司（包括控股子公司）共计新签订单 111 项，合同金额总计人 民币 678,062.59 万元，较上年同期减少 19.10%。其中国内项目合同 104 项，合 同金额合计 625,373.36 万元；国外项目合同 7 项，合同金额合计 52,68 ...