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不惧“关税大限”冲击,投资者纷纷押注市场“波动不大”
华尔街见闻· 2025-07-07 05:00
距7月9日的"关税大限"仅剩数日,全球股市投资者似乎对即将到来的不确定性表现得异常淡定。 据环球时报,特朗普表示,美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知,税率区间为10%至70%,并计划从8月1日起正式实施。 尽管这一税率上限(70%)远高于其4月份宣布的50%,但全球市场对此反应平静。 MSCI全球指数上周触及峰值,美国、欧洲等多个市场的波动率预期指标较4月高点下跌超过一半 ,在科技股反弹和强于预期的非农数据提振下,标普500指数 上周甚至再创历史新高。 与此同时,高盛的主要经纪业务数据显示, 对冲基金净买入美国金融股的规模攀升至近十年来最高水平。 西班牙对外银行策略师Michalis Onisiforou指出,大 型投机者似乎正在追涨,而非像近几个月那样平仓空头。 纽约Neuberger Berman多资产联合首席投资官Jeff Blazek表示, 市场认为截止日期存在足够"弹性",相信最坏情况已不在考虑范围内。 这种"追高"行为反映出市场中仍存有乐观情绪,但Onisiforou警告称,"挥之不去的悲观情绪已让许多参与者措手不及"。 期权市场显现自满情绪 一些策略师警告称,期权市场 ...
不惧“关税大限”冲击,投资者纷纷押注市场“波动不大”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-07 03:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite the impending uncertainty from new tariffs announced by the U.S. government, global market investors are exhibiting calmness, with major indices reaching new highs [1] - The MSCI global index recently peaked, and the volatility indicators for markets in the U.S. and Europe have dropped by more than half compared to their highs in April, suggesting a reduction in market anxiety [1] - Hedge funds have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. financial stocks, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade, indicating a bullish sentiment among large speculators [1] Group 2 - The options market is showing signs of complacency, with traders pricing in only a slight increase in volatility for the Euro Stoxx 50 index ahead of the July 9 deadline, which raises concerns about market preparedness [2] - Some investors are adopting a "long gamma" strategy to profit from market fluctuations, similar to strategies that yielded substantial returns in April [2] - However, analysts caution that the current market dynamics differ from previous conditions, suggesting that the outcomes of these strategies may not be as favorable this time [2]