2025.07. 09 本文字数：2849，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 即使美国总统特朗普的贸易政策反复无常、扰动全球市场，但全球股市今年仍表现强劲。 截至7月4日，MSCI全球指数上涨了约10%，创历史高位。该指数衡量全球来自发达经济体和新兴经济体 的2500多只股票的整体表现。 华侨银行投资策略董事总经理蒙农（Vasu Menon）表示，尽管今年上半年出现了一系列逆风因素，但全 球股市显示出韧性。"由于各种不确定性因素仍存，预计下半年股票波动性仍将存在。但同时，预计全球 股市在下半年仍将表现良好，尤其是如果对贸易、关税和通胀的担忧在未来几个月有所缓解的话。" 欧洲复兴 根据晨星（Morningstar）的数据，欧洲股市成为2025年的"意外之星"，希腊、波兰、捷克共和国、匈 牙利股指今年迄今的涨幅，居全球前四。西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利和意大利股指涨幅也居前十，欧洲股指 在前十位中占据八位，排名最后的意大利涨幅也达到37.71%。相比之下，美股虽然近期又创新高，但在 全球投资者对美元资产整体信心动摇下，美股上半年涨幅仅为7.36%。 晨星EMEA首席股票市场策略师弗尔德（Michael F ...

Global Market Performance - Despite the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, global stock markets have shown resilience, with the MSCI global index rising approximately 10% as of July 4, reaching a historical high [1] - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in stock markets, but a positive performance is anticipated if concerns over trade, tariffs, and inflation ease [1] European Market Highlights - European stock markets have emerged as "unexpected stars" for 2025, with Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary leading global gains [3] - Greece's stock index has surged nearly 60% this year, driven by economic recovery, banking reforms, and a strong tourism sector [3] - The overall positive performance in Europe is attributed to the "sell America" movement, improved economic conditions, and undervaluation of European stocks [3] Investment Strategies in Europe - European defense stocks are expected to provide substantial returns, supported by increased investment and defense spending commitments from Germany [4] - The European Central Bank has more room to cut interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, which may further support economic growth [4] - The strengthening euro is anticipated to enhance economic momentum in Europe, making it an increasingly attractive investment destination [5] Asia-Pacific Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock indices have shown mixed performance, with South Korea's index ranking first in the region, up over 30% this year [5] - Thailand and Indonesia have underperformed, with declines of 13.56% and 4.74% respectively, while China and Japan recorded gains of 17.72% and 11.24% [5] - The outlook for Asian markets remains optimistic, with expectations of stable economic conditions and attractive valuations compared to developed markets [7] Sector Focus in Asia - Key sectors expected to drive growth in Asia include artificial intelligence, innovation, digital infrastructure, and local consumption [7] - The Chinese and South Korean markets are poised to benefit from advancements in technology and the expansion of the AI industry [7] - The Indian market is expected to see growth driven by manufacturing and consumption, supported by a young population [7] Underperforming Markets - Thailand's stock market has faced significant challenges due to political instability and economic difficulties, leading to a decline of over 13% [8] - Turkey's market has also struggled, with a drop of 7.59% attributed to high inflation and a lack of investor confidence [9] - India's stock market has underperformed with a gain of only 5.75%, but future earnings recovery is anticipated [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite the impending uncertainty from new tariffs announced by the U.S. government, global market investors are exhibiting calmness, with major indices reaching new highs [1] - The MSCI global index recently peaked, and the volatility indicators for markets in the U.S. and Europe have dropped by more than half compared to their highs in April, suggesting a reduction in market anxiety [1] - Hedge funds have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. financial stocks, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade, indicating a bullish sentiment among large speculators [1] Group 2 - The options market is showing signs of complacency, with traders pricing in only a slight increase in volatility for the Euro Stoxx 50 index ahead of the July 9 deadline, which raises concerns about market preparedness [2] - Some investors are adopting a "long gamma" strategy to profit from market fluctuations, similar to strategies that yielded substantial returns in April [2] - However, analysts caution that the current market dynamics differ from previous conditions, suggesting that the outcomes of these strategies may not be as favorable this time [2]

全球股市正逼近纪录高点，一些分析师预测逢低买盘将支撑市场进一步上涨。MSCI全球指数距离2月18 日创下的收盘纪录高位887.72点仅差0.5%。该指数已从美国总统特朗普宣布提高关税后的4月低点反弹 19%。"许多投资者可能感到没把握住时机，正在寻找潜在的回调机会以部署现金，" SGMC Capital创始 人Massimiliano Bondurri表示。根据分析师预测，MSCI全球指数未来12个月有望上涨11%。策略师们也 开始提高对主要市场的配置。（彭博） ...