Workflow
长债供应
icon
Search documents
宝城期货国债期货早报(2025年12月5日)-20251205
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the Treasury bond futures are mainly in oscillatory consolidation, with low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. However, the long - term monetary policy environment is loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: weak; view reference: oscillatory consolidation; core logic: low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with a significant decline in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Short - term weak performance is due to low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. Long - term support comes from the loose monetary policy environment [5].